Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
1	Gavin McKenna★	F	NCAA	18.7	TOR	26′ #1	1.46	49	100%	0.9y @19.6	5380113	77.8
5	James Hagens★	F	NCAA	19.8	BOS	25′ #7	1.38	46.5	88%	1.2y @21	416297	60
7	Porter Martone★	F	NCAA	19.8	PHI	25′ #6	1.43	48	85%	1.4y @21.2	356297	58.3
22	Cole Reschny★	F	NCAA	19.4	CGY	25′ #18	0.97	32.7	72%	2.4y @21.8	233979	41.8
26	Jackson Smith★	D	NCAA	19.3	CBJ	25′ #14	0.74	25	78%	1.8y @21.1	153673	38.1
28	Keaton Verhoeff★	D	NCAA	18.2	SJS	26′ #9	0.56	18.7	68%	1.7y @19.9	154377	37.9
29	Ilia Morozov★	F	NCAA	18	BUF	26′ #20	0.56	18.7	72%	3.4y @21.4	04383	37.8
32	Roger McQueen	F	NCAA	19.9	ANA	25′ #10	0.75	25.2	65%	2.2y @22.1	203571	37.3
33	William Horcoff	F	NCAA	19.6	PIT	25′ #24	0.97	32.8	68%	2.4y @22	163571	36.1
34	Vaclav Nestrasil	F	NCAA	19.4	CHI	25′ #25	0.91	30.7	65%	2.6y @22	193571	35.8
37	Cullen Potter	F	NCAA	19.6	CGY	25′ #32	1.08	36.4	62%	2y @21.6	193473	35.3
48	Michael Hage	F	NCAA	20.4	MTL	24′ #21	1.33	44.8	65%	2.3y @22.7	163081	33.8
57	Ethan Wyttenbach★	F	NCAA	19.5	CGY	25′ #144	1.48	49.6	55%	2.6y @22.1	03077	33
72	Danny Nelson	F	NCAAPRO	21	NYI*	23′ #49	0.81	27.1	72%	1.9y @22.9	183361	31.7
75	Max Plante	F	NCAA	20.5	DET	24′ #47	1.3	43.7	60%	2.3y @22.8	03078	31.5
81	Adam Valentini	F	NCAA	18.4	UTA*	26′ #96	0.68	22.7	57%	3.5y @21.9	03083	31.1
91	Austin Burnevik	F	NCAAPRO	21.6	ANA*	24′ #182	1.06	35.5	62%	1.4y @23	153358	30.6
98	Charlie Cerrato	F	NCAAPRO	21.4	CAR	25′ #49	1.17	39.5	68%	1.6y @23	203153	30
99	Jonathan Castagna	F	NCAAPRO	21.3	CGY	23′ #70	1	33.6	68%	1.7y @23	183253	29.8
115	Ryker Lee	F	NCAA	19.8	NSH	25′ #26	0.86	28.8	55%	2.5y @22.3	153061	28.9
125	William Whitelaw	F	NCAAPRO	21.5	CBJ*	23′ #66	0.87	29.3	65%	1.6y @23.1	183155	28.6
140	Cole Eiserman	F	NCAA	20	NYI	24′ #20	0.88	29.4	57%	2.5y @22.5	03061	28.4
155	Jayden Perron	F	NCAAPRO	21.6	CAR*	23′ #94	1.02	34.5	62%	1.4y @23	153149	28.1
164	Cruz Lucius	F	NCAAPRO	22.4	ANA	22′ #124	1.28	43	47%	1y @23.4	02965	27.5
166	Christopher Pelosi	F	NCAAPRO	21.5	BOS*	23′ #92	0.97	32.7	62%	1.5y @23	73155	27.5
175	Charlie Stramel	F	NCAAPRO	21.8	MIN	23′ #21	1.19	40	60%	1.2y @23	43062	27.4
188	Jayson Shaugabay	F	NCAAPRO	21.4	TBL*	23′ #115	1.07	36.1	60%	1.6y @23	73149	26.9
203	Zam Plante	F	NCAAPRO	22	PIT	22′ #150	1.25	42	57%	1.1y @23.1	02951	26.6
217	Quinn Finley	F	NCAAPRO	22	NYI	22′ #78	0.89	30	57%	1.3y @23.3	02951	25.9
221	Dean Letourneau	F	NCAA	20.5	BOS	24′ #25	1.08	36.4	53%	2.3y @22.8	02553	25.8
228	Cole Hutson	D	NCAA	20.1	WSH	24′ #43	0.91	30.7	62%	2.6y @22.7	02552	25.4
229	Trevor Hoskin	F	NCAAPRO	22.3	CGY*	24′ #106	1.03	34.6	50%	1y @23.3	02764	25.3
235	Owen Beckner	F	NCAAPRO	21.5	OTT*	23′ #204	0.77	25.8	53%	1.6y @23.1	72755	25.1
238	Aiden Fink	F	NCAAPRO	21.7	NSH	23′ #218	1.27	42.6	53%	1.4y @23.1	02751	24.9
255	Jack Murtagh	F	NCAA	19	PHI*	25′ #40	0.31	10.6	50%	3.3y @22.3	01656	24.4
271	Beckett Hendrickson	F	NCAAPRO	21.2	BOS*	23′ #124	0.56	18.7	47%	1.6y @22.8	02558	23.8
279	Ryan Conmy	F	NCAAPRO	21.8	LAK*	23′ #182	0.77	25.9	45%	1.3y @23.1	02455	23.6
287	Logan Hensler	D	NCAA	19.9	OTT	25′ #23	0.52	17.5	62%	2.3y @22.2	02052	23.1
293	Joe Connor	F	NCAAPRO	21.4	TBL*	24′ #195	0.75	25.2	47%	1.6y @23	02455	22.9
304	Zach Nehring	F	NCAAPRO	21.5	WPG*	23′ #82	0.49	16.3	47%	1.3y @22.8	01559	22.6
316	Jake Richard	F	NCAAPRO	22	BUF	22′ #170	0.71	23.9	45%	1.4y @23.4	02353	22.3
322	Cole Brown	F	NCAAPRO	21.3	NJD*	23′ #164	0.6	20.2	42%	1.6y @22.9	02355	22.2
329	Rieger Lorenz	F	NCAAPRO	22.4	MIN	22′ #56	0.81	27.4	50%	1y @23.4	02339	21.9
337	Anthony Romani	F	NCAAPRO	21.1	VAN*	24′ #162	0.76	25.4	45%	2y @23.1	02155	21.9
345	Nicholas Moldenhauer	F	NCAAPRO	22.2	TOR*	22′ #95	0.78	26.1	47%	1.5y @23.7	02448	21.6
375	Blake Montgomery	F	NCAAPRO	21.3	OTT	24′ #117	0.45	15	38%	1.4y @22.7	01258	20.9
391	Brandon Svoboda	F	NCAAPRO	21.5	SJS*	23′ #71	0.43	14.4	45%	1.3y @22.8	01646	20.3
392	Julius Sumpf	F	NCAAPRO	21.6	CHI*	25′ #98	0.58	19.6	45%	1.4y @23	01558	20.3
400	Cole Knuble	F	NCAAPRO	22.1	PHI	23′ #103	0.86	29	42%	1.6y @23.7	02138	20.1
402	Dylan James	F	NCAAPRO	22.9	DET	22′ #40	0.8	26.9	45%	1.1y @24	02042	20
425	John Mustard	F	NCAA	20	CHI*	24′ #67	0.81	27.1	38%	3.6y @23.6	01559	19.6
452	Joey Muldowney	F	NCAAPRO	22.2	SJS*	22′ #172	0.85	28.7	38%	1.5y @23.7	01948	18.9
483	Zaccharya Wisdom	F	NCAAPRO	22.3	SEA*	23′ #212	0.77	25.9	33%	1.4y @23.7	01551	18.4
485	Jake Fisher	F	NCAAPRO	21.4	COL*	24′ #121	0.44	14.9	35%	1.4y @22.8	01158	18.3
495	Tanner Ludtke	F	NCAAPRO	21.7	ARI*	23′ #81	0.45	15.2	40%	1.3y @23	01237	17.8
506	Paul Fischer	D	NCAAPRO	21.6	STL*	23′ #138	0.7	23.4	45%	1.7y @23.3	01344	17.4
513	George Fegaras	D	NCAAPRO	22.3	DAL*	22′ #83	0.62	20.8	38%	1.8y @24.1	01352	17.3
526	John Mooney	F	NCAA	19.5	MTL*	25′ #113	0.88	29.7	40%	3.6y @23.1	0345	17.1
536	Eric Pohlkamp	D	NCAAPRO	22.4	SJS	23′ #132	0.91	30.5	40%	1.7y @24.1	01344	16.9
540	Francesco Dell'Elce	D	NCAAPRO	21.2	COL*	25′ #77	0.58	19.6	45%	1.5y @22.7	01343	16.8
543	Sacha Boisvert	F	NCAA	20.4	CHI	24′ #18	0.65	22	35%	2.5y @22.9	0446	16.6
548	Maxim Strbak	D	NCAAPRO	21.4	BUF	23′ #45	0.49	16.4	47%	1.4y @22.8	01344	16.5
570	Gavin McCarthy	D	NCAAPRO	21.2	BUF	23′ #86	0.58	19.6	42%	1.5y @22.7	01143	16
573	Malcolm Spence	F	NCAA	19.9	NYR*	25′ #43	0.62	21	35%	3.2y @23.1	0038	15.9
574	Barrett Hall	F	NCAAPRO	22.6	SEA*	22′ #164	0.78	26.1	28%	1.1y @23.7	0048	15.8
576	Chase Cheslock	D	NCAAPRO	21.8	NJD*	23′ #154	0.63	21.2	40%	1.7y @23.5	01143	15.8
604	Ethan Hay	F	NCAAPRO	21.6	TBL*	23′ #211	0.46	15.4	28%	1.2y @22.8	0055	15.4
627	Luke Osburn	D	NCAA	19.9	BUF*	24′ #108	0.64	21.4	42%	2.6y @22.5	01143	15.1
637	Reese Laubach	F	NCAAPRO	22.8	—	—	0.76	25.4	25%	1.1y @23.9	0048	14.8
645	Cayden Lindstrom	F	NCAA	20.5	CBJ	24′ #4	0.32	10.8	38%	1.6y @22.1	0036	14.6
676	Ryan Walsh	F	NCAAPRO	23	BOS*	23′ #188	1	33.6	25%	1.4y @24.4	0041	13.9
678	Justin Poirier	F	NCAA	20	CAR*	24′ #156	1.07	36.1	28%	3.6y @23.6	0035	13.9
689	Drew Fortescue	D	NCAAPRO	21.3	NYR	23′ #90	0.39	13.1	38%	1.4y @22.7	01132	13.7
691	Brodie Ziemer	F	NCAA	20.5	BUF*	24′ #71	1	33.6	30%	3.3y @23.8	0035	13.7
692	Justin Kipkie	D	NCAAPRO	21.1	MIN*	25′ #141	0.37	12.5	35%	1.6y @22.7	0743	13.7
695	Zachary Sharp	D	NCAAPRO	21.4	SJS*	25′ #124	0.51	17.3	38%	2.1y @23.5	01131	13.6
703	Larry Keenan	D	NCAAPRO	21.4	DET*	23′ #117	0.53	17.7	38%	1.4y @22.8	01131	13.4
705	Stiven Sardarian	F	NCAAPRO	23.5	CAR	21′ #88	1.19	40	20%	1.1y @24.6	0039	13.3
719	Noah Powell	F	NCAAPRO	21.5	PHI	24′ #148	0.35	11.9	20%	1.1y @22.6	0055	13.2
728	Brody Lamb	F	NCAAPRO	23	NYR	21′ #104	0.86	28.8	25%	1.5y @24.5	0037	13
743	Brandon Lisowsky	F	NCAAPRO	22.4	TOR*	22′ #218	0.48	16.3	23%	0.8y @23.2	0048	12.9
747	Andre Gasseau	F	NCAAPRO	23.1	SJS	21′ #213	1	33.6	20%	1.3y @24.4	0041	12.8
748	Garrett Brown	D	NCAAPRO	22.4	WPG	22′ #99	0.41	13.8	40%	2.4y @24.8	01127	12.8
756	Hoyt Stanley	D	NCAAPRO	21.5	OTT	23′ #108	0.44	14.8	33%	2y @23.5	0731	12.8
764	Adam Ingram	F	NCAAPRO	22.9	NSH*	22′ #82	0.52	17.5	28%	0.7y @23.6	0034	12.6
773	Sam Harris	F	NCAAPRO	22.9	MTL*	23′ #133	0.81	27.4	23%	1.3y @24.2	0038	12.6
777	Jaden Lipinski	F	NCAAPRO	21.7	CGY*	23′ #112	0.4	13.4	23%	1.5y @23.2	0046	12.5
778	Dalyn Wakely	F	NCAAPRO	22.5	EDM*	24′ #192	0.54	18.3	20%	1.2y @23.7	0036	12.5
789	Connor Hvidston	F	NCAAPRO	21.9	ANA*	22′ #139	0.5	16.8	25%	1.1y @23	0037	12.2
792	Brady Cleveland	D	NCAAPRO	21.4	DET*	23′ #47	0.05	1.7	40%	1.4y @22.8	01129	12.2
793	Sascha Boumedienne	D	NCAA	19.6	WPG	25′ #28	0.29	9.6	38%	2.5y @22.1	0027	12.2
798	Casper Nassen	F	NCAAPRO	22.4	BOS*	23′ #214	0.5	16.8	20%	0.6y @23	0036	12.1
800	Landon Nycz	D	NCAA	18.9	STL*	26′ #107	0.09	2.9	33%	4.2y @23.1	0029	12
801	Samu Salminen	F	NCAAPRO	23.4	NJD*	21′ #68	0.67	22.7	25%	1.7y @25.1	0034	11.9
828	Tyson Dyck	F	NCAAPRO	22.5	—	—	0.58	19.4	20%	1.2y @23.7	0036	11.7
829	Matthew Morden	D	NCAAPRO	22.1	ARI*	22′ #131	0.59	19.8	33%	2y @24.1	01127	11.7
833	Cameron O'Neill	F	NCAAPRO	22.6	OTT*	22′ #143	0.45	15.2	25%	0.9y @23.5	0031	11.6
836	Xavier Veilleux	D	NCAA	20.4	NYI*	24′ #179	0.76	25.7	33%	2.4y @22.8	0031	11.6
849	Tyson Gross	F	NCAAPRO	23.9	CGY	—	1.14	38.3	17%	0.7y @24.6	0055	11.4
850	Sutter Muzzatti	F	NCAAPRO	23.1	NSH*	23′ #143	0.86	29.1	20%	1.3y @24.4	0037	11.4

Who each prospect looks like

1. Gavin McKenna100% NHL · 0.9y

Sam Reinhart 14′#2	94 pk	839 GP
Nail Yakupov 12′#1	53 pk	350 GP
Connor McDavid 15′#1	154 pk	794 GP
Leon Draisaitl 14′#3	131 pk	855 GP
Nico Hischier 17′#1	81 pk	609 GP

5. James Hagens88% NHL · 1.2y

Timo Meier 15′#9	81 pk	698 GP
Robby Fabbri 14′#21	49 pk	463 GP
Mitch Marner 15′#4	110 pk	738 GP
Luke Kunin 16′#15	41 pk	496 GP
Barrett Hayton 18′#5	46 pk	358 GP

7. Porter Martone85% NHL · 1.4y

Timo Meier 15′#9	81 pk	698 GP
Mitch Marner 15′#4	110 pk	738 GP
Robby Fabbri 14′#21	49 pk	463 GP
Nick Suzuki 17′#13	101 pk	537 GP
Luke Kunin 16′#15	41 pk	496 GP

22. Cole Reschny72% NHL · 2.4y

Sonny Milano 14′#16	42 pk	344 GP
Mathew Barzal 15′#16	85 pk	611 GP
Joshua Ho-Sang 14′#28	never stuck	53 GP
Nick Schmaltz 14′#20	77 pk	670 GP
Jared McCann 14′#24	73 pk	720 GP

26. Jackson Smith78% NHL · 1.8y

Adam Boqvist 18′#8	43 pk	272 GP
Dennis Cholowski 16′#20	25 pk	173 GP
Slater Koekkoek 12′#10	20 pk	186 GP
Mathew Dumba 12′#7	56 pk	748 GP
Rasmus Sandin 18′#29	33 pk	382 GP

28. Keaton Verhoeff68% NHL · 1.7y

Mikhail Sergachev 16′#9	66 pk	630 GP
Jakob Chychrun 16′#16	64 pk	621 GP
Darnell Nurse 13′#7	53 pk	798 GP
Ian McCoshen 13′#31	never stuck	60 GP
Noah Hanifin 15′#5	49 pk	829 GP

29. Ilia Morozov72% NHL · 3.4y

Scott Laughton 12′#20	45 pk	745 GP
J.T. Compher 13′#35	52 pk	658 GP
Eeli Tolvanen 17′#30	46 pk	423 GP
Dylan Larkin 14′#15	83 pk	808 GP
Alex Formenton 17′#47	33 pk	109 GP

32. Roger McQueen65% NHL · 2.2y

Jake DeBrusk 15′#14	64 pk	628 GP
Vitali Kravtsov 18′#9	never stuck	64 GP
Michael McLeod 16′#12	35 pk	287 GP
Jack Roslovic 15′#25	58 pk	595 GP
Nick Ritchie 14′#10	48 pk	481 GP

33. William Horcoff68% NHL · 2.4y

Luke Kunin 16′#15	41 pk	496 GP
Jonathan Dahlen 16′#42	never stuck	61 GP
Emile Poirier 13′#22	never stuck	8 GP
Jakub Vrana 14′#13	62 pk	406 GP
Jayce Hawryluk 14′#32	never stuck	98 GP

34. Vaclav Nestrasil65% NHL · 2.6y

Jared McCann 14′#24	73 pk	720 GP
Christian Fischer 15′#32	34 pk	523 GP
Sonny Milano 14′#16	42 pk	344 GP
Jayce Hawryluk 14′#32	never stuck	98 GP
Janne Kuokkanen 16′#43	41 pk	119 GP

37. Cullen Potter62% NHL · 2y

Ivan Barbashev 14′#33	61 pk	667 GP
Sam Steel 16′#30	41 pk	491 GP
Joe Veleno 18′#30	29 pk	367 GP
Maxime Comtois 17′#50	49 pk	211 GP
Akil Thomas 18′#51	never stuck	32 GP

48. Michael Hage65% NHL · 2.3y

Morgan Frost 17′#27	47 pk	392 GP
Jordan Kyrou 16′#35	83 pk	488 GP
Max Domi 13′#12	72 pk	815 GP
Brett Howden 16′#27	41 pk	489 GP
Jeremy Bracco 15′#61	never stuck	0 GP