TOI Breakouts · per-60 × ice time

Pick any skater in the league and drag their ice time to see what the role is worth — production scales at their own rate per 60 minutes. Below, the breakout board ranks who already produces at a high rate and is projected for more minutes in 2026-27: +pts is what the minutes change alone adds.

Team

Player

projected points

0 vs model

8 min30 min

18.1 min/gamelast season 17.3 → model 18.1 · L1·PP1games

Points

3.15/60

Goals

1.87/60

Assists

1.28/60

314

Shots

13.01/60

PP pts

0.87/60

Hits

2.92/60

Blocks

0.91/60

PIM

1.28/60

Rates are last season's per 60 minutes (76 GP). Totals scale linearly with ice time and games — a rate this good over a small sample is a bet, not a guarantee. A dash for last season means no NHL history, so that player is shown at his role's baseline. Full profile →

Breakout board · rising role + high rate

sortBiggest opportunity Per-60 rate

#	Player	Tm	Proj role	P/60	iSCF/60	25-26 TOI	26-27 TOI	Δ min	Proj pts	+pts
1	Linus Karlsson · R	VAN	L1·PP1	2.13	4.92	12.5	15.5	+3.0	35	+7.0
2	Jack Quinn · R	BUF	L2·PP1	2.38	6.06	15.7	17.7	+2.0	53	+6.0
3	Gage Goncalves · R	TBL	L1·PP2	2.04	3.84	13.1	15.7	+2.6	35	+6.0
4	Ross Colton · L	NSH	L3·PP2	1.58	5	12.5	15.5	+3.0	31	+6.0
5	Isaac Howard · L	EDM	L4·PP2	1	4.42	10.3	13.7	+3.4	23	+6.0
6	Egor Chinakhov · R	PIT	L2·PP2	2.59	5.49	13.5	15.9	+2.4	39	+6.0
7	Calum Ritchie · C	NYI	L2·PP2	2.05	4.03	13.5	15.8	+2.3	38	+5.0
8	Viktor Arvidsson · L	DET	L2·PP1	3.22	5.84	14.6	16	+1.4	55	+5.0
9	Fedor Svechkov · C	COL	L3	1.2	3.19	12.1	15	+2.9	21	+4.0
10	Connor Dewar · C	PIT	L4	1.66	3.65	13.9	15.9	+2.0	29	+4.0
11	Jordan Martinook · L	CAR	L3	1.53	3.37	14.8	16.7	+1.9	31	+4.0
12	Jamie Benn · L	DAL	L3·PP2	2.71	4.29	13.3	14.8	+1.5	41	+4.0
13	Danila Yurov · C	MIN	L1·PP2	1.67	4.02	13.3	15.3	+2.0	32	+4.0
14	Matthew Wood · R	NSH	L2·PP1	2.06	4.53	12.3	13.8	+1.5	35	+4.0
15	Ryan Winterton · C	SEA	L3	1.32	3.46	12	14.8	+2.8	24	+4.0
16	Morgan Barron · C	WPG	L3	1.66	3.39	12.8	15.3	+2.5	25	+4.0
17	Keegan Kolesar · R	DET	L3	1.08	2.48	11.5	14.8	+3.3	19	+4.0
18	Hendrix Lapierre · C	PIT	L3·PP2	1.47	3.22	8.8	11.6	+2.8	18	+4.0
19	Justin Hryckowian · C	DAL	L1·PP2	1.67	2.9	13.3	15.3	+2.0	32	+4.0
20	Ryan Strome · C	CGY	L1·PP2	1.82	2.43	13.3	15.5	+2.2	32	+4.0
21	Jake DeBrusk · L	VAN	L1·PP1	1.84	6.79	16.9	18.6	+1.7	46	+4.0
22	Drew O'Connor · L	VAN	L3	1.45	4.46	14.6	16.9	+2.3	29	+4.0
23	Oliver Bjorkstrand · R	NYR	L2·PP2	1.76	5.79	13.6	15.2	+1.6	38	+4.0
24	Lars Eller · C	FLA	L4	1.16	3.02	11.4	13.7	+2.3	15	+3.0
25	Warren Foegele · L	OTT	L1	1.09	3.96	13.8	15.6	+1.8	24	+3.0
26	Nikolaj Ehlers · L	CAR	L3·PP1	3.13	3.97	16.6	17.5	+0.9	68	+3.0
27	Eric Robinson · L	CAR	L4	1.41	4.01	11.4	13.5	+2.1	20	+3.0
28	Jesperi Kotkaniemi · C	CAR	L4	1.13	3.01	11.4	13.4	+2.0	19	+3.0
29	Logan Stankoven · C	CAR	L2·PP2	2.1	5.73	15.5	16.4	+0.9	49	+3.0
30	Cutter Gauthier · L	ANA	L1·PP1	3.15	6.53	17.3	18.1	+0.8	73	+3.0
31	Sam Carrick · C	BUF	L4	1.25	3.05	10.5	13.6	+3.1	13	+3.0
32	Beck Malenstyn · L	BUF	L4	0.93	2.65	11.2	14.3	+3.1	13	+3.0
33	Radek Faksa · C	DAL	L4	1.5	1.77	11.7	14.3	+2.6	17	+3.0
34	Peyton Krebs · C	BUF	L3	2.07	2.28	13.8	14.8	+1.0	38	+3.0
35	Sam Steel · C	DAL	L3·PP2	1.68	3.32	16.1	17.4	+1.3	35	+3.0
36	Nick Lardis · L	CHI	L3	1.73	5.19	12.7	14.7	+2.0	21	+3.0
37	Yegor Sharangovich · C	CGY	L1·PP2	1.39	3.41	16	17.9	+1.9	32	+3.0
38	Connor Zary · C	CGY	L2·PP2	1.41	4.05	14.4	16.2	+1.8	28	+3.0
39	Sean Monahan · C	CBJ	L2·PP1	1.62	3.87	17.1	18.5	+1.4	39	+3.0
40	Bobby Brink · R	MIN	L3·PP2	1.74	4.41	15.2	16.6	+1.4	36	+3.0
41	Isak Rosen · R	WPG	L2	1.41	2.68	11.5	14	+2.5	13	+3.0
42	Michael Misa · C	SJS	L2	2.19	4.58	12.8	14.3	+1.5	30	+3.0
43	Pavel Zacha · C	BOS	L2·PP1	2.98	4.9	16.8	17.6	+0.8	67	+3.0
44	Tanner Jeannot · L	BOS	L4	1.36	3.03	12.6	14.3	+1.7	22	+3.0
45	Mark Kastelic · C	BOS	L4	1.28	3.08	12.6	14.4	+1.8	21	+3.0
46	Anders Lee · L	UTA	L2·PP2	1.97	6.43	15.6	16.9	+1.3	43	+3.0
47	Zachary Bolduc · R	MTL	L4·PP2	1.7	4.13	13.6	14.8	+1.2	33	+3.0
48	Denton Mateychuk · D	CBJ	D1·PP2	1.29	0.92	19.2	21	+1.8	30	+3.0
49	Paul Cotter · L	VAN	L2·PP2	1.06	3.48	10.7	13.6	+2.9	16	+3.0
50	Tom Willander · D	VAN	D2·PP2	1.06	0.45	17	19.1	+2.1	25	+3.0
51	Fabian Zetterlund · L	OTT	L2·PP2	1.87	4.42	12.9	13.9	+1.0	36	+3.0
52	Louis Crevier · D	BUF	D3	1.12	0.72	17.1	18.5	+1.4	21	+2.0
53	Jordan Staal · C	CAR	L3·PP2	1.78	4.59	16.2	17.3	+1.1	33	+2.0
54	Nick Jensen · D	ANA	D2	0.98	0.23	17	18.3	+1.3	18	+2.0
55	Jonatan Berggren · R	STL	L3	1.88	2.9	13.8	14.9	+1.1	25	+2.0
56	Cole Smith · R	CHI	L4	0.86	3.65	13.3	15.3	+2.0	13	+2.0
57	Oliver Moore · C	CHI	L3·PP2	1.75	2.76	12.8	14.2	+1.4	26	+2.0
58	Joel Farabee · L	CGY	L3·PP1	1.65	3.42	16.9	17.8	+0.9	38	+2.0
59	Michael McCarron · C	MIN	L4	0.92	2.22	14	15.5	+1.5	16	+2.0
60	Nick Paul · C	TOR	L3·PP2	1.29	3.95	13.7	15	+1.3	25	+2.0

per-60 x projected TOI (2026-27 role) x projected GP; pts_gain = points added by the minutes change alone. All-situations rates from last season, shrunk toward the projection model by sample size (p60 is the raw measured rate, p60_used drives the total). Projected minutes are normalised so each club's lineup fits the 300 skater-minutes a game actually has. iSCF/60 is individual scoring chances per 60 — shot attempts our xG model prices at 0.08 or better. Points per 60 can ride good linemates; chance rate is the player's own, so the two agreeing is the stronger breakout signal.