TOI Breakouts · per-60 × ice time

Pick any skater in the league and drag their ice time to see what the role is worth — production scales at their own rate per 60 minutes. Below, the breakout board ranks who already produces at a high rate and is projected for more minutes in 2026-27: +pts is what the minutes change alone adds.

Team

Player

projected points

0 vs model

8 min30 min

18.9 min/gamelast season 17.3 → model 18.9 · L1·PP1games

Points

3.15/60

Goals

1.87/60

Assists

1.28/60

279

Shots

13.01/60

PP pts

0.87/60

Hits

2.92/60

Blocks

0.91/60

PIM

1.28/60

Rates are last season's per 60 minutes (76 GP). Totals scale linearly with ice time and games — a rate this good over a small sample is a bet, not a guarantee. A dash for last season means no NHL history, so that player is shown at his role's baseline. Full profile →

Breakout board · rising role + high rate

sortBiggest opportunity Per-60 rate

#	Player	Tm	Proj role	P/60	iSCF/60	25-26 TOI	26-27 TOI	Δ min	Proj pts	+pts
1	Linus Karlsson · C	VAN	L1·PP2	2.13	4.13	12.5	15.8	+3.3	35	+8.0
2	Matthew Wood · R	NSH	L1·PP2	2.06	4.4	12.3	15.8	+3.5	33	+7.0
3	Casey Mittelstadt · C	BOS	L1·PP2	2.34	3.45	15.2	17	+1.8	48	+5.0
4	Cutter Gauthier · L	ANA	L1·PP1	3.15	5.61	17.3	18.9	+1.6	64	+5.0
5	Brady Tkachuk · L	FLA	L1·PP1	3.47	7.29	17	18.2	+1.2	78	+5.0
6	Jake DeBrusk · L	VAN	L1·PP1	1.84	6.44	16.9	19.3	+2.4	45	+5.0
7	Jack Quinn · R	BUF	L1·PP2	2.38	5.73	15.7	17	+1.3	49	+4.0
8	Nikolaj Ehlers · L	CAR	L1·PP1	3.13	4.1	16.6	17.7	+1.1	68	+4.0
9	Charle-Edouard D'Astous · D	TBL	D1·PP2	1.32	1.09	18.8	21	+2.2	33	+4.0
10	Jordan Kyrou · R	WSH	L1·PP1	2.44	5.79	15.7	17	+1.3	54	+4.0
11	Chris Kreider · L	ANA	L1·PP2	2.35	4.61	17	18.4	+1.4	49	+4.0
12	Pavel Zacha · C	BOS	L1·PP1	2.98	4.44	16.8	17.7	+0.9	66	+4.0
13	Elias Pettersson · C	VAN	L1·PP1	2.18	4.1	19	20.4	+1.4	59	+4.0
14	Matt Coronato · R	CGY	L1·PP1	2.02	4.67	16.7	18.4	+1.7	44	+4.0
15	Morgan Frost · C	CGY	L1·PP1	2.03	4.15	15.5	17.3	+1.8	42	+4.0
16	Michael Misa · C	SJS	L3·PP2	2.19	4.58	12.8	14	+1.2	29	+3.0
17	Jimmy Snuggerud · R	STL	L1·PP1	2.62	5.65	16.7	17.5	+0.8	54	+3.0
18	Danila Yurov · R	MIN	L2·PP2	1.67	3.71	13.3	14.9	+1.6	31	+3.0
19	Ryan Donato · C	CHI	L1	1.49	3.68	14.7	16.4	+1.7	33	+3.0
20	Frank Vatrano · R	ANA	L3·PP2	0.92	2.95	11.8	13.5	+1.7	22	+3.0
21	Patrick Kane · R	CHI	L1·PP1	2.88	4.15	17.7	18.5	+0.8	55	+3.0
22	Jared McCann · L	SEA	L1·PP1	2.81	4.92	16.4	17.4	+1.0	59	+3.0
23	Egor Chinakhov · R	PIT	L3·PP2	2.59	5.25	13.5	14.8	+1.3	38	+3.0
24	Filip Hronek · D	VAN	D1·PP1	1.43	0.64	25	26.5	+1.5	48	+3.0
25	Paul Cotter · L	VAN	L3	1.06	3.48	10.7	12.7	+2.0	16	+3.0
26	Kaedan Korczak · D	PIT	D1	0.77	0.58	16	19.1	+3.1	15	+2.0
27	Gabe Perreault · R	NYR	L1·PP2	2.07	3.67	16	16.8	+0.8	31	+2.0
28	Tye Kartye · L	NYR	L3	1.72	2.73	12	13.1	+1.1	22	+2.0
29	William Carrier · L	CAR	L3	1.43	3.73	10.8	12	+1.2	17	+2.0
30	Ville Koivunen · R	PIT	L3·PP2	0.85	3.51	12.7	14	+1.3	17	+2.0
31	Taylor Hall · L	CAR	L2·PP2	2.48	4.6	14.5	15.4	+0.9	42	+2.0
32	Peyton Krebs · C	BUF	L3	2.07	2.33	13.8	14.7	+0.9	37	+2.0
33	Kaapo Kakko · R	SEA	L2·PP2	2.58	3.29	14.3	15.1	+0.8	41	+2.0
34	Anthony Cirelli · C	TBL	L1·PP2	2.54	4.1	17.3	17.9	+0.6	57	+2.0
35	Emmitt Finnie · C	DET	L1·PP2	1.42	4.15	15.5	16.4	+0.9	34	+2.0
36	Nikita Nesterenko · C	ANA	L3	1.51	2.52	12.3	13.8	+1.5	11	+2.0
37	Alex Killorn · L	ANA	L2·PP2	1.45	3.55	16.7	18.1	+1.4	30	+2.0
38	Nick Jensen · D	ANA	D1	0.98	0.35	17	19	+2.0	18	+2.0
39	Alexis Lafrenière · L	NYR	L1·PP1	2.37	4.91	17.6	18.4	+0.8	58	+2.0
40	Mason Lohrei · D	BOS	D2·PP2	1.26	1.26	16.9	18.4	+1.5	26	+2.0
41	Dakota Joshua · C	TOR	L3	1.61	3.67	12.2	13	+0.8	18	+2.0
42	Emil Andrae · D	TOR	D1	0.84	0.84	15.3	17.8	+2.5	12	+2.0
43	Jonathan Marchessault · C	NSH	L1·PP2	1.8	4.35	16.7	17.8	+1.1	40	+2.0
44	Jake Middleton · D	CGY	D2	0.73	0.73	17.5	19.6	+2.1	17	+2.0
45	Elias Pettersson · D	VAN	D1	0.57	0.4	15	19.3	+4.3	9	+2.0
46	Sean Durzi · D	NYR	D2·PP2	1.4	0.83	19.3	20.5	+1.2	31	+2.0
47	Steven Lorentz · C	TOR	L3	1.28	2.63	11.9	12.9	+1.0	16	+2.0
48	Colton Dach · C	EDM	L3·PP2	1.11	2.82	11.5	12.6	+1.1	14	+2.0
49	Tommy Novak · C	PIT	L2·PP2	2.15	4.96	14.3	15.4	+1.1	38	+2.0
50	Brendan Gallagher · R	VAN	L3·PP2	1.45	3.9	12.4	13.4	+1.0	23	+2.0
51	Ryker Evans · D	SEA	D1	0.86	0.25	17.8	20.4	+2.6	18	+2.0
52	Ryan Winterton · C	SEA	L3	1.32	3.16	12	13.2	+1.2	19	+2.0
53	Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · C	EDM	L1·PP1	2.44	4.71	19.1	19.7	+0.6	60	+2.0
54	Valeri Nichushkin · R	CBJ	L1·PP2	2.31	4.94	17.7	18.3	+0.6	48	+2.0
55	Adam Klapka · R	CGY	L3	1.29	2.72	10.6	12.2	+1.6	17	+2.0
56	Artyom Levshunov · D	CHI	D1·PP1	1.08	0.95	19.6	20.9	+1.3	25	+1.0
57	Fedor Svechkov · C	COL	L3	1.2	3.19	12.1	12.8	+0.7	19	+1.0
58	Vinnie Hinostroza · C	COL	L3	1.52	3.05	10.9	11.7	+0.8	15	+1.0
59	Kevin Bahl · D	CGY	D1	0.65	0.25	21.9	22.5	+0.6	17	+1.0
60	Dmitri Simashev · D	UTA	D1	0.14	0.14	15.1	17.4	+2.3	3	+1.0

per-60 x projected TOI (2026-27 role) x projected GP; pts_gain = points added by the minutes change alone. All-situations rates from last season, shrunk toward the projection model by sample size (p60 is the raw measured rate, p60_used drives the total). Projected minutes are normalised so each club's lineup fits the 300 skater-minutes a game actually has. iSCF/60 is individual scoring chances per 60 — shot attempts our xG model prices at 0.08 or better. Points per 60 can ride good linemates; chance rate is the player's own, so the two agreeing is the stronger breakout signal.