Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
72	Danny Nelson	F	NCAAPRO	21	NYI*	23′ #49	0.81	27.1	72%	1.9y @22.9	183361	31.7
91	Austin Burnevik	F	NCAAPRO	21.6	ANA*	24′ #182	1.06	35.5	62%	1.4y @23	153358	30.6
98	Charlie Cerrato	F	NCAAPRO	21.4	CAR	25′ #49	1.17	39.5	68%	1.6y @23	203153	30
99	Jonathan Castagna	F	NCAAPRO	21.3	ARI*	23′ #70	1	33.6	68%	1.7y @23	183253	29.8
125	William Whitelaw	F	NCAAPRO	21.5	CBJ*	23′ #66	0.87	29.3	65%	1.6y @23.1	183155	28.6
155	Jayden Perron	F	NCAAPRO	21.6	CAR*	23′ #94	1.02	34.5	62%	1.4y @23	153149	28.1
164	Cruz Lucius	F	NCAAPRO	22.4	PIT	22′ #124	1.28	43	47%	1y @23.4	02965	27.5
166	Christopher Pelosi	F	NCAAPRO	21.5	BOS*	23′ #92	0.97	32.7	62%	1.5y @23	73155	27.5
175	Charlie Stramel	F	NCAAPRO	21.8	MIN	23′ #21	1.19	40	60%	1.2y @23	43062	27.4
188	Jayson Shaugabay	F	NCAAPRO	21.4	TBL*	23′ #115	1.07	36.1	60%	1.6y @23	73149	26.9
203	Zam Plante	F	NCAAPRO	22	PIT	22′ #150	1.25	42	57%	1.1y @23.1	02951	26.6
217	Quinn Finley	F	NCAAPRO	22	NYI*	22′ #78	0.89	30	57%	1.3y @23.3	02951	25.9
229	Trevor Hoskin	F	NCAAPRO	22.3	CGY*	24′ #106	1.03	34.6	50%	1y @23.3	02764	25.3
235	Owen Beckner	F	NCAAPRO	21.5	OTT*	23′ #204	0.77	25.8	53%	1.6y @23.1	72755	25.1
238	Aiden Fink	F	NCAAPRO	21.7	NSH	23′ #218	1.27	42.6	53%	1.4y @23.1	02751	24.9
271	Beckett Hendrickson	F	NCAAPRO	21.2	BOS*	23′ #124	0.56	18.7	47%	1.6y @22.8	02558	23.8
279	Ryan Conmy	F	NCAAPRO	21.8	LAK*	23′ #182	0.77	25.9	45%	1.3y @23.1	02455	23.6
293	Joe Connor	F	NCAAPRO	21.4	TBL*	24′ #195	0.75	25.2	47%	1.6y @23	02455	22.9
304	Zach Nehring	F	NCAAPRO	21.5	WPG*	23′ #82	0.49	16.3	47%	1.3y @22.8	01559	22.6
316	Jake Richard	F	NCAAPRO	22	BUF*	22′ #170	0.71	23.9	45%	1.4y @23.4	02353	22.3
322	Cole Brown	F	NCAAPRO	21.3	NJD*	23′ #164	0.6	20.2	42%	1.6y @22.9	02355	22.2
329	Rieger Lorenz	F	NCAAPRO	22.4	MIN*	22′ #56	0.81	27.4	50%	1y @23.4	02339	21.9
337	Anthony Romani	F	NCAAPRO	21.1	VAN*	24′ #162	0.76	25.4	45%	2y @23.1	02155	21.9
345	Nicholas Moldenhauer	F	NCAAPRO	22.2	TOR*	22′ #95	0.78	26.1	47%	1.5y @23.7	02448	21.6
375	Blake Montgomery	F	NCAAPRO	21.3	OTT*	24′ #117	0.45	15	38%	1.4y @22.7	01258	20.9
391	Brandon Svoboda	F	NCAAPRO	21.5	SJS*	23′ #71	0.43	14.4	45%	1.3y @22.8	01646	20.3
392	Julius Sumpf	F	NCAAPRO	21.6	CHI*	25′ #98	0.58	19.6	45%	1.4y @23	01558	20.3
400	Cole Knuble	F	NCAAPRO	22.1	PHI*	23′ #103	0.86	29	42%	1.6y @23.7	02138	20.1
402	Dylan James	F	NCAAPRO	22.9	DET*	22′ #40	0.8	26.9	45%	1.1y @24	02042	20
452	Joey Muldowney	F	NCAAPRO	22.2	SJS*	22′ #172	0.85	28.7	38%	1.5y @23.7	01948	18.9
483	Zaccharya Wisdom	F	NCAAPRO	22.3	SEA*	23′ #212	0.77	25.9	33%	1.4y @23.7	01551	18.4
485	Jake Fisher	F	NCAAPRO	21.4	COL*	24′ #121	0.44	14.9	35%	1.4y @22.8	01158	18.3
495	Tanner Ludtke	F	NCAAPRO	21.7	ARI*	23′ #81	0.45	15.2	40%	1.3y @23	01237	17.8
506	Paul Fischer	D	NCAAPRO	21.6	STL*	23′ #138	0.7	23.4	45%	1.7y @23.3	01344	17.4
513	George Fegaras	D	NCAAPRO	22.3	DAL*	22′ #83	0.62	20.8	38%	1.8y @24.1	01352	17.3
536	Eric Pohlkamp	D	NCAAPRO	22.4	SJS*	23′ #132	0.91	30.5	40%	1.7y @24.1	01344	16.9
540	Francesco Dell'Elce	D	NCAAPRO	21.2	COL*	25′ #77	0.58	19.6	45%	1.5y @22.7	01343	16.8
548	Maxim Strbak	D	NCAAPRO	21.4	BUF*	23′ #45	0.49	16.4	47%	1.4y @22.8	01344	16.5
570	Gavin McCarthy	D	NCAAPRO	21.2	BUF*	23′ #86	0.58	19.6	42%	1.5y @22.7	01143	16
574	Barrett Hall	F	NCAAPRO	22.6	SEA*	22′ #164	0.78	26.1	28%	1.1y @23.7	0048	15.8
576	Chase Cheslock	D	NCAAPRO	21.8	NJD*	23′ #154	0.63	21.2	40%	1.7y @23.5	01143	15.8
604	Ethan Hay	F	NCAAPRO	21.6	TBL*	23′ #211	0.46	15.4	28%	1.2y @22.8	0055	15.4
637	Reese Laubach	F	NCAAPRO	22.7	—	—	0.76	25.4	25%	1.2y @23.9	0048	14.8
676	Ryan Walsh	F	NCAAPRO	23	BOS*	23′ #188	1	33.6	25%	1.4y @24.4	0041	13.9
689	Drew Fortescue	D	NCAAPRO	21.3	NYR	23′ #90	0.39	13.1	38%	1.4y @22.7	01132	13.7
692	Justin Kipkie	D	NCAAPRO	21.1	MIN*	25′ #141	0.37	12.5	35%	1.6y @22.7	0743	13.7
695	Zachary Sharp	D	NCAAPRO	21.4	SJS*	25′ #124	0.51	17.3	38%	2.1y @23.5	01131	13.6
703	Larry Keenan	D	NCAAPRO	21.4	DET*	23′ #117	0.53	17.7	38%	1.4y @22.8	01131	13.4
705	Stiven Sardarian	F	NCAAPRO	23.5	CAR	21′ #88	1.19	40	20%	1.1y @24.6	0039	13.3
719	Noah Powell	F	NCAAPRO	21.5	PHI*	24′ #148	0.35	11.9	20%	1.1y @22.6	0055	13.2
728	Brody Lamb	F	NCAAPRO	23	NYR*	21′ #104	0.86	28.8	25%	1.5y @24.5	0037	13
743	Brandon Lisowsky	F	NCAAPRO	22.4	TOR*	22′ #218	0.48	16.3	23%	0.8y @23.2	0048	12.9
747	Andre Gasseau	F	NCAAPRO	23.1	BOS*	21′ #213	1	33.6	20%	1.3y @24.4	0041	12.8
748	Garrett Brown	D	NCAAPRO	22.4	WPG*	22′ #99	0.41	13.8	40%	2.4y @24.8	01127	12.8
756	Hoyt Stanley	D	NCAAPRO	21.5	OTT*	23′ #108	0.44	14.8	33%	2y @23.5	0731	12.8
764	Adam Ingram	F	NCAAPRO	22.9	NSH*	22′ #82	0.52	17.5	28%	0.7y @23.6	0034	12.6
773	Sam Harris	F	NCAAPRO	22.9	MTL*	23′ #133	0.81	27.4	23%	1.3y @24.2	0038	12.6
777	Jaden Lipinski	F	NCAAPRO	21.7	CGY*	23′ #112	0.4	13.4	23%	1.5y @23.2	0046	12.5
778	Dalyn Wakely	F	NCAAPRO	22.5	EDM*	24′ #192	0.54	18.3	20%	1.2y @23.7	0036	12.5
789	Connor Hvidston	F	NCAAPRO	21.9	ANA*	22′ #139	0.5	16.8	25%	1.1y @23	0037	12.2
792	Brady Cleveland	D	NCAAPRO	21.4	DET*	23′ #47	0.05	1.7	40%	1.4y @22.8	01129	12.2
798	Casper Nassen	F	NCAAPRO	22.4	BOS*	23′ #214	0.5	16.8	20%	0.6y @23	0036	12.1
801	Samu Salminen	F	NCAAPRO	23.4	NJD*	21′ #68	0.67	22.7	25%	1.7y @25.1	0034	11.9
828	Tyson Dyck	F	NCAAPRO	22.5	—	—	0.58	19.4	20%	1.2y @23.7	0036	11.7
829	Matthew Morden	D	NCAAPRO	22.1	ARI*	22′ #131	0.59	19.8	33%	2y @24.1	01127	11.7
833	Cameron O'Neill	F	NCAAPRO	22.6	OTT*	22′ #143	0.45	15.2	25%	0.9y @23.5	0031	11.6
849	Tyson Gross	F	NCAAPRO	23.9	CGY	—	1.14	38.3	17%	0.7y @24.6	0055	11.4
850	Sutter Muzzatti	F	NCAAPRO	23.1	NSH*	23′ #143	0.86	29.1	20%	1.3y @24.4	0037	11.4
854	Ben MacDonald	F	NCAAPRO	22.5	SEA*	22′ #91	0.43	14.6	25%	1.5y @24	0033	11.3
861	Vladislav Lukashevich	D	NCAAPRO	23.2	FLA*	21′ #120	0.64	21.4	33%	1.2y @24.4	0036	11.2
879	Hudson Malinoski	F	NCAAPRO	22.3	TOR*	23′ #153	0.42	14	23%	1.4y @23.7	0031	11
920	David Klee	F	NCAAPRO	21.3	SJS*	23′ #196	0.25	8.4	20%	1.6y @22.9	0053	10.6
931	Nicholas Vantassell	F	NCAAPRO	22.3	OTT*	23′ #215	0.46	15.5	20%	1.2y @23.5	0027	10.5
934	Abram Wiebe	D	NCAAPRO	23	CGY	—	0.72	24.4	30%	1.2y @24.2	0031	10.4
950	Cedrick Guindon	F	NCAAPRO	22.3	MTL*	22′ #127	0.41	13.7	20%	0.8y @23.1	0027	10.2
957	Aram Minnetian	D	NCAAPRO	21.4	DAL*	23′ #125	0.31	10.3	30%	2.5y @23.9	0426	10.2
959	Ryan Healey	D	NCAAPRO	22.3	MIN*	22′ #121	0.35	11.9	33%	2.7y @25	0026	10.1
963	Eric Jamieson	D	NCAAPRO	21.1	CGY*	24′ #177	0.42	14.1	28%	2.3y @23.4	0026	10.1
986	Kalem Parker	D	NCAAPRO	21.9	MIN*	23′ #181	0.33	11.2	28%	2.7y @24.6	0026	9.8
988	Patrick Geary	D	NCAAPRO	22.5	BUF*	24′ #172	0.31	10.6	30%	2.4y @24.9	0029	9.8
995	Nate Misskey	D	NCAAPRO	21.6	SJS*	24′ #143	0.29	9.6	30%	2.5y @24.1	0026	9.6
996	Erik Påhlsson	F	NCAAPRO	22.4	NSH*	24′ #213	0.44	14.7	17%	0.8y @23.2	0027	9.6
997	Theo Wallberg	D	NCAAPRO	22.7	OTT*	22′ #168	0.38	12.7	30%	2.2y @24.9	0029	9.5
1012	Kristian Kostadinski	D	NCAAPRO	21.3	BOS*	23′ #220	0.09	3	28%	2.8y @24.1	0026	9.3
1019	Luke Ashton	D	NCAAPRO	21.6	CBJ*	24′ #165	0.32	10.9	28%	3y @24.6	0026	9.2
1020	Fisher Scott	D	NCAAPRO	21.8	DET*	24′ #208	0.39	13.1	28%	2.3y @24.1	0026	9.2
1027	Cade Littler	F	NCAAPRO	22.1	CGY*	22′ #219	0.37	12.5	15%	0.9y @23	0027	9.1
1029	Aiden Celebrini	D	NCAAPRO	21.8	VAN*	23′ #171	0.2	6.7	25%	2.8y @24.6	0026	9.1
1033	Graham Sward	D	NCAAPRO	22.9	NSH*	22′ #146	0.4	13.4	25%	2y @24.9	0027	9
1069	Brennan Ali	F	NCAAPRO	22.5	—	—	0.43	14.4	15%	0.9y @23.4	0025	8.7
1071	Warren Clark	D	NCAAPRO	22	TBL*	23′ #179	0.18	6.1	28%	3.5y @25.5	0026	8.7
1075	Jack Phelan	D	NCAAPRO	22.2	DET*	23′ #137	0.24	8.2	28%	2.4y @24.6	0026	8.6
1086	Andrew Strathmann	D	NCAAPRO	21.5	CBJ*	23′ #98	0.16	5.3	28%	2.3y @23.8	0024	8.5
1100	Matteo Mann	D	NCAAPRO	21.6	PHI*	23′ #199	0.07	2.4	25%	2.5y @24.1	0026	8.4
1101	Justin Gill	F	NCAAPRO	23.6	NYI*	23′ #145	0.97	32.7	12%	0.9y @24.5	0037	8.3
1102	Michael Fisher	D	NCAAPRO	22.3	SJS*	22′ #76	0.24	8.2	30%	1.9y @24.2	0026	8.3
1144	Filip Nordberg	D	NCAAPRO	22.5	OTT*	22′ #64	0.18	6.2	28%	1.5y @24	0026	7.6
1174	Owen Mehlenbacher	F	NCAAPRO	22.6	DET*	22′ #201	0.28	9.5	12%	0.6y @23.2	0025	7.3
1175	Charlie Leddy	D	NCAAPRO	22.6	NJD*	22′ #126	0.24	8.1	23%	1.9y @24.5	0026	7.3
1187	Ryan MacPherson	F	NCAAPRO	21.5	PHI*	23′ #172	0.13	4.5	12%	1.7y @23.2	0025	7.3

Who each prospect looks like

72. Danny Nelson72% NHL · 1.9y

Tanner Pearson 12′#30	53 pk	778 GP
Filip Hallander 18′#58	never stuck	16 GP
Mitchell Stephens 15′#33	18 pk	123 GP
Artturi Lehkonen 13′#55	65 pk	660 GP
Eetu Luostarinen 17′#42	43 pk	447 GP

91. Austin Burnevik62% NHL · 1.4y

Jacob Peterson 17′#132	never stuck	83 GP
Alan Quine 13′#166	24 pk	106 GP
Riley Damiani 18′#137	never stuck	7 GP
Connor Brown 12′#156	51 pk	676 GP
Riley Barber 12′#167	never stuck	16 GP

98. Charlie Cerrato68% NHL · 1.6y

Tyler Benson 16′#32	never stuck	38 GP
Jack Drury 18′#42	30 pk	268 GP
Pavel Buchnevich 13′#75	87 pk	674 GP
Jesper Boqvist 17′#36	34 pk	387 GP
Jonatan Berggren 18′#33	36 pk	205 GP

99. Jonathan Castagna68% NHL · 1.7y

Artturi Lehkonen 13′#55	65 pk	660 GP
Nick Sorensen 13′#45	never stuck	5 GP
Lucas Wallmark 14′#97	31 pk	187 GP
Jesper Boqvist 17′#36	34 pk	387 GP
Anton Slepyshev 13′#88	20 pk	102 GP

125. William Whitelaw65% NHL · 1.6y

Anton Slepyshev 13′#88	20 pk	102 GP
Artturi Lehkonen 13′#55	65 pk	660 GP
Nick Sorensen 13′#45	never stuck	5 GP
Filip Hallander 18′#58	never stuck	16 GP
Sven Andrighetto 13′#86	36 pk	216 GP

155. Jayden Perron62% NHL · 1.4y

Jacob Peterson 17′#132	never stuck	83 GP
Riley Damiani 18′#137	never stuck	7 GP
Artturi Lehkonen 13′#55	65 pk	660 GP
Connor Brown 12′#156	51 pk	676 GP
Lucas Wallmark 14′#97	31 pk	187 GP

164. Cruz Lucius47% NHL · 1y

Jacob Peterson 17′#132	never stuck	83 GP
Maxim Mamin 16′#175	never stuck	73 GP
Pontus Holmberg 18′#156	29 pk	229 GP
Taylor Raddysh 16′#58	39 pk	373 GP
Olle Lycksell 17′#168	never stuck	52 GP

166. Christopher Pelosi62% NHL · 1.5y

Artturi Lehkonen 13′#55	65 pk	660 GP
Anton Slepyshev 13′#88	20 pk	102 GP
Jacob Peterson 17′#132	never stuck	83 GP
Alan Quine 13′#166	24 pk	106 GP
Rudolfs Balcers 15′#142	34 pk	170 GP

175. Charlie Stramel60% NHL · 1.2y

Jonatan Berggren 18′#33	36 pk	205 GP
Tyler Benson 16′#32	never stuck	38 GP
Jesper Boqvist 17′#36	34 pk	387 GP
Egor Korshkov 16′#31	never stuck	1 GP
Nick Sorensen 13′#45	never stuck	5 GP

188. Jayson Shaugabay60% NHL · 1.6y

Riley Damiani 18′#137	never stuck	7 GP
Lucas Wallmark 14′#97	31 pk	187 GP
Connor Brown 12′#156	51 pk	676 GP
Jacob Peterson 17′#132	never stuck	83 GP
Alan Quine 13′#166	24 pk	106 GP

203. Zam Plante57% NHL · 1.1y

Jacob Peterson 17′#132	never stuck	83 GP
Oskar Lindblom 14′#138	49 pk	337 GP
Riley Damiani 18′#137	never stuck	7 GP
Maxim Mamin 16′#175	never stuck	73 GP
Pavel Buchnevich 13′#75	87 pk	674 GP

217. Quinn Finley57% NHL · 1.3y

Connor Dewar 18′#92	32 pk	316 GP
Aleksi Saarela 15′#89	never stuck	9 GP
Nick Sorensen 13′#45	never stuck	5 GP
Anton Slepyshev 13′#88	20 pk	102 GP
Jacob Peterson 17′#132	never stuck	83 GP