Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
36	Alexander Zharovsky	F	KHLPRO	19.5	MTL	25′ #34	0.71	44.9	70%	3.1y @22.6	183469	35.5
41	Egor Surin	F	KHLPRO	20.1	NSH	24′ #22	0.65	41	70%	2.5y @22.6	183469	34.4
42	Benjamin Rautiainen	F	LIIGAPRO	21.2	TBL	25′ #108	1.31	57.8	65%	2y @23.2	213369	34.4
43	Trevor Connelly	F	AHLPRO	20.5	VGK	24′ #19	1.07	38.4	70%	2.1y @22.6	183369	34.1
45	Eddie Genborg	F	SHLPRO	19.3	DET*	25′ #44	0.58	28.1	70%	3.2y @22.5	183365	34
46	Anton Frondell	F	SHLPRO	19.3	CHI	25′ #3	0.65	31.5	72%	3.1y @22.4	193065	33.9
47	Matvei Gridin	F	AHLPRO	20.5	CGY	24′ #28	0.81	29.3	70%	2.1y @22.6	183368	33.8
53	Ilya Protas	F	AHLPRO	20.1	WSH	24′ #75	0.96	34.5	68%	2.7y @22.8	183365	33.3
54	Ivar Stenberg	F	SHLPRO	18.9	SJS	26′ #2	0.77	37.1	70%	3.5y @22.4	183065	33.3
62	Roman Kantserov	F	KHLPRO	21.9	CHI	23′ #44	1.02	64.1	53%	1.3y @23.2	03077	32.5
63	Konsta Helenius	F	AHLPRO	20.3	BUF	24′ #14	1	36.1	62%	2.3y @22.6	93069	32.3
64	Lucas Pettersson	F	SHLPRO	20.3	ANA	24′ #35	0.49	23.6	68%	2.3y @22.6	183068	32.3
65	Victor Eklund	F	SHLPRO	19.9	NYI	25′ #16	0.56	27	65%	2.5y @22.4	183068	32.2
68	Matvei Korotky	F	KHLPRO	20.7	STL	24′ #211	0.63	39.6	68%	2.3y @23	213358	32.1
72	Danny Nelson	F	NCAAPRO	21	NYI*	23′ #49	0.81	27.1	72%	1.9y @22.9	183361	31.7
74	Quentin Musty	F	AHLPRO	21.1	SJS*	23′ #26	0.74	26.6	68%	1.6y @22.7	183069	31.5
82	Igor Chernyshov	F	AHLPRO	20.7	SJS*	24′ #33	0.8	29	68%	2.1y @22.8	183264	31
86	Felix Nilsson	F	SHLPRO	21.2	NSH	23′ #43	0.77	37.2	70%	1.8y @23	203353	30.9
91	Austin Burnevik	F	NCAAPRO	21.6	ANA*	24′ #182	1.06	35.5	62%	1.4y @23	153358	30.6
92	Gabe Perreault	F	AHLPRO	21.3	NYR	23′ #23	0.85	30.7	65%	1.5y @22.8	63065	30.4
94	Bradly Nadeau	F	AHLPRO	21.3	CAR*	23′ #30	1.08	38.9	68%	1.7y @23	183264	30.1
97	Nick Lardis	F	AHLPRO	21.1	CHI	23′ #67	0.91	33	68%	1.8y @22.9	183258	30
98	Charlie Cerrato	F	NCAAPRO	21.4	CAR	25′ #49	1.17	39.5	68%	1.6y @23	203153	30
99	Jonathan Castagna	F	NCAAPRO	21.3	CGY	23′ #70	1	33.6	68%	1.7y @23	183253	29.8
100	Milton Gastrin	F	ALLSVENSKANPRO	19.2	WSH*	25′ #37	0.62	19.2	57%	3.1y @22.3	42968	29.8
101	Michael Brandsegg-Nygård	F	AHLPRO	20.9	DET*	24′ #15	0.73	26.5	62%	1.7y @22.6	92965	29.6
102	Yegor Borikov	F	KHLPRO	21	UTA*	25′ #110	0.51	32.1	62%	1.9y @22.9	83258	29.6
107	Gracyn Sawchyn	F	AHLPRO	21.6	FLA*	23′ #63	0.66	23.7	68%	1.7y @23.3	183353	29.2
116	Tomas Chrenko	F	SLOVAKIAPRO	18.8	NYR*	26′ #81	0.7	20.2	60%	3.7y @22.5	93061	28.9
117	Tanner Howe	F	AHLPRO	20.7	PIT*	24′ #46	0.59	21.4	57%	1.7y @22.4	42565	28.8
125	William Whitelaw	F	NCAAPRO	21.5	CBJ*	23′ #66	0.87	29.3	65%	1.6y @23.1	183155	28.6
127	Jonathan Lekkerimäki	F	AHLPRO	22.1	VAN	22′ #15	0.95	34.4	65%	1y @23.1	03064	28.5
128	Felix Unger Sörum	F	AHLPRO	20.9	—	—	0.92	33.1	55%	2y @22.9	73158	28.5
139	Elton Hermansson	F	ALLSVENSKANPRO	18.5	LAK	26′ #19	0.55	17.2	60%	3.9y @22.4	42964	28.5
150	Jani Nyman	F	AHLPRO	22.1	SEA*	22′ #49	0.85	30.5	60%	1y @23.1	03065	28.1
151	Conor Geekie	F	AHLPRO	22.3	TBL	22′ #11	1.04	37.3	60%	0.8y @23.1	02964	28.1
154	Oscar Fisker Molgaard	F	AHLPRO	21.5	SEA*	23′ #52	0.69	25	62%	1.6y @23.1	153253	28.1
155	Jayden Perron	F	NCAAPRO	21.6	CAR*	23′ #94	1.02	34.5	62%	1.4y @23	153149	28.1
156	Daniil Prokhorov	F	VHLPRO	19.3	NYI	25′ #42	0.72	17.7	55%	3.1y @22.4	02568	28.1
163	Jakob Ihs Wozniak	F	ALLSVENSKANPRO	19.6	VGK*	25′ #55	0.64	19.9	55%	2.9y @22.5	02961	27.6
164	Cruz Lucius	F	NCAAPRO	22.4	ANA	22′ #124	1.28	43	47%	1y @23.4	02965	27.5
166	Christopher Pelosi	F	NCAAPRO	21.5	BOS*	23′ #92	0.97	32.7	62%	1.5y @23	73155	27.5
175	Charlie Stramel	F	NCAAPRO	21.8	MIN	23′ #21	1.19	40	60%	1.2y @23	43062	27.4
178	Anton Wahlberg	F	AHLPRO	21.1	ANA	23′ #39	0.54	19.6	62%	1.7y @22.8	122955	27.2
181	Andrew Cristall	F	AHLPRO	21.5	WSH*	23′ #40	0.83	30.1	62%	1.6y @23.1	63153	27.1
185	Jesse Kiiskinen	F	LIIGAPRO	21	DET	23′ #68	0.52	23	57%	1.7y @22.7	02759	27.1
188	Jayson Shaugabay	F	NCAAPRO	21.4	TBL*	23′ #115	1.07	36.1	60%	1.6y @23	73149	26.9
189	Mikhail Ilyin	F	KHLPRO	21.5	PIT	23′ #142	0.65	40.9	57%	1.6y @23.1	62951	26.8
201	Anttoni Uronen	F	LIIGAPRO	18.2	CBJ*	26′ #182	0.37	16.4	55%	4.4y @22.6	02559	26.8
203	Zam Plante	F	NCAAPRO	22	PIT	22′ #150	1.25	42	57%	1.1y @23.1	02951	26.6
204	Rutger McGroarty	F	AHLPRO	22.4	WPG*	22′ #14	1.13	40.9	55%	0.8y @23.2	02864	26.6
215	Otto Stenberg	F	AHLPRO	21.2	STL*	23′ #25	0.47	17	60%	1.3y @22.5	02561	26.2
217	Quinn Finley	F	NCAAPRO	22	NYI	22′ #78	0.89	30	57%	1.3y @23.3	02951	25.9
224	Eduard Sale	F	AHLPRO	21.4	SEA	23′ #20	0.47	16.8	62%	1.2y @22.6	02755	25.7
225	Daniil But	F	AHLPRO	21.5	UTA	23′ #12	0.95	34.3	57%	1.6y @23.1	42762	25.6
227	Oliver Suvanto	F	LIIGAPRO	18	WSH	26′ #18	0.23	10.1	55%	4.4y @22.4	01964	25.6
229	Trevor Hoskin	F	NCAAPRO	22.3	CGY*	24′ #106	1.03	34.6	50%	1y @23.3	02764	25.3
232	Oscar Fisker Mølgaard	F	AHLPRO	21.5	—	—	0.69	25	50%	1.6y @23.1	02755	25.1
235	Owen Beckner	F	NCAAPRO	21.5	OTT*	23′ #204	0.77	25.8	53%	1.6y @23.1	72755	25.1
237	Joakim Kemell	F	AHLPRO	22.3	NSH*	22′ #17	0.6	21.8	60%	1y @23.3	02753	24.9
238	Aiden Fink	F	NCAAPRO	21.7	NSH	23′ #218	1.27	42.6	53%	1.4y @23.1	02751	24.9
239	Carter Yakemchuk	D	AHLPRO	20.9	OTT	24′ #7	0.74	26.7	62%	1.9y @22.8	132652	24.9
240	Kasper Halttunen	F	AHLPRO	21.2	SJS*	23′ #36	0.51	18.3	57%	1.6y @22.8	02555	24.9
241	David Edstrom	F	AHLPRO	21.5	VGK*	23′ #32	0.42	15	57%	1.4y @22.9	02555	24.8
242	Tinus Luc Koblar	F	SHLPRO	19.1	TOR	25′ #64	0.3	14.4	53%	3y @22.1	01961	24.8
248	Ethan Gauthier	F	AHLPRO	21.6	TBL*	23′ #37	0.48	17.4	60%	1.3y @22.9	02555	24.6
250	Noah Dower Nilsson	F	SHLPRO	21.3	DET	23′ #73	0.33	16.1	53%	1.5y @22.8	02061	24.6
267	Joona Saarelainen	F	LIIGAPRO	20.4	TBL*	24′ #149	0.47	20.8	50%	2.5y @22.9	02555	24.1
269	Simas Ignatavicius	F	NLPRO	18.8	FLA*	26′ #40	0.25	11.3	57%	3.9y @22.7	01961	24
270	Juraj Pekarcik	F	AHLPRO	20.9	STL*	23′ #76	0.51	18.3	50%	1.8y @22.7	02559	23.9
271	Beckett Hendrickson	F	NCAAPRO	21.2	BOS*	23′ #124	0.56	18.7	47%	1.6y @22.8	02558	23.8
272	Jack Berglund	F	SHLPRO	20.4	PHI*	24′ #51	0.3	14.5	53%	2.3y @22.7	01961	23.8
275	Lenni Hämeenaho	F	AHLPRO	21.8	—	—	0.7	25.4	45%	1.3y @23.1	02355	23.6
278	Filip Eriksson	F	SHLPRO	21.8	MTL*	23′ #165	0.56	27	45%	1.3y @23.1	02455	23.6
279	Ryan Conmy	F	NCAAPRO	21.8	LAK*	23′ #182	0.77	25.9	45%	1.3y @23.1	02455	23.6
280	Alexander Rykov	F	KHLPRO	21.1	CAR*	23′ #100	0.27	16.9	47%	1.7y @22.8	01858	23.5
281	Ivan Miroshnichenko	F	AHLPRO	22.5	WSH	22′ #20	0.83	29.9	57%	0.8y @23.3	02743	23.4
285	Isaac Howard	F	AHLPRO	22.4	TBL*	22′ #31	1.06	38.4	47%	0.7y @23.1	02353	23.1
288	Atte Joki	F	LIIGAPRO	19.1	DAL*	25′ #146	0.3	13.3	47%	3.5y @22.6	01859	23.1
289	Viggo Björck	F	SHLPRO	18.4	WPG	—	0.36	17.3	47%	4.2y @22.6	01858	23
290	Ivan Ryabkin	F	AHLPRO	19.3	CAR*	25′ #62	0.32	11.6	50%	3.1y @22.4	01861	22.9
291	Luca Pinelli	F	AHLPRO	21.4	CBJ*	23′ #114	0.68	24.4	53%	1.7y @23.1	02553	22.9
293	Joe Connor	F	NCAAPRO	21.4	TBL*	24′ #195	0.75	25.2	47%	1.6y @23	02455	22.9
304	Zach Nehring	F	NCAAPRO	21.5	WPG*	23′ #82	0.49	16.3	47%	1.3y @22.8	01559	22.6
305	Viktor Fedorov	F	VHLPRO	18.5	SEA*	26′ #99	0.25	6.1	50%	3.7y @22.2	01661	22.6
316	Jake Richard	F	NCAAPRO	22	BUF	22′ #170	0.71	23.9	45%	1.4y @23.4	02353	22.3
317	Luca Del Bel Belluz	F	AHLPRO	22.8	CBJ*	22′ #44	1.05	38	42%	1.1y @23.9	02365	22.3
318	Denver Barkey	F	AHLPRO	21.3	PHI	23′ #95	0.62	22.2	50%	1.8y @23.1	02453	22.3
319	Colby Barlow	F	AHLPRO	21.5	WPG*	23′ #18	0.25	8.9	57%	1.4y @22.9	02046	22.3
322	Cole Brown	F	NCAAPRO	21.3	NJD*	23′ #164	0.6	20.2	42%	1.6y @22.9	02355	22.2
323	Jiri Felcman	F	NLPRO	21.3	CHI	23′ #93	0.38	17.3	45%	1.6y @22.9	01559	22.1
329	Rieger Lorenz	F	NCAAPRO	22.4	MIN	22′ #56	0.81	27.4	50%	1y @23.4	02339	21.9
337	Anthony Romani	F	NCAAPRO	21.1	VAN*	24′ #162	0.76	25.4	45%	2y @23.1	02155	21.9
338	Alberts Smits	D	LIIGAPRO	18.7	NYR	26′ #5	0.34	15.1	62%	3.9y @22.6	112245	21.9
344	Jagger Firkus	F	AHLPRO	22.3	SEA	22′ #35	0.89	32.1	50%	0.8y @23.1	02442	21.6
345	Nicholas Moldenhauer	F	NCAAPRO	22.2	TOR*	22′ #95	0.78	26.1	47%	1.5y @23.7	02448	21.6
348	Mikhail Fyodorov	F	KHLPRO	19.7	STL*	25′ #147	0.25	15.8	42%	3.1y @22.8	01558	21.6
353	Herman Traff	F	ALLSVENSKANPRO	20.6	ANA	—	0.8	25.1	45%	2.3y @22.9	02055	21.5
354	Malte Gustafsson	D	SHLPRO	18.2	NYI	26′ #13	0.11	5.4	60%	4.2y @22.4	112245	21.4
355	Matthew Poitras	F	AHLPRO	22.4	BOS*	22′ #54	0.64	23	53%	1.2y @23.6	02438	21.3

Who each prospect looks like

36. Alexander Zharovsky70% NHL · 3.1y

Jack Drury 18′#42	30 pk	268 GP
Jakub Vrana 14′#13	62 pk	406 GP
Jesper Boqvist 17′#36	34 pk	387 GP
Pavel Buchnevich 13′#75	87 pk	674 GP
Emil Bemstrom 17′#117	33 pk	242 GP

41. Egor Surin70% NHL · 2.5y

Jakub Vrana 14′#13	62 pk	406 GP
Jack Drury 18′#42	30 pk	268 GP
Jesper Boqvist 17′#36	34 pk	387 GP
Tyler Benson 16′#32	never stuck	38 GP
Artturi Lehkonen 13′#55	65 pk	660 GP

42. Benjamin Rautiainen65% NHL · 2y

Pavel Buchnevich 13′#75	87 pk	674 GP
Oskar Lindblom 14′#138	49 pk	337 GP
Riley Damiani 18′#137	never stuck	7 GP
Kirill Kaprizov 15′#135	112 pk	397 GP
Taylor Raddysh 16′#58	39 pk	373 GP

43. Trevor Connelly70% NHL · 2.1y

Jack Drury 18′#42	30 pk	268 GP
Jesper Boqvist 17′#36	34 pk	387 GP
Tyler Benson 16′#32	never stuck	38 GP
Jakub Vrana 14′#13	62 pk	406 GP
Tanner Pearson 12′#30	53 pk	778 GP

45. Eddie Genborg70% NHL · 3.2y

Vladislav Kamenev 14′#42	never stuck	66 GP
Bo Groulx 18′#54	never stuck	78 GP
Adrian Kempe 14′#29	80 pk	711 GP
Jack Drury 18′#42	30 pk	268 GP
Jesper Boqvist 17′#36	34 pk	387 GP

46. Anton Frondell72% NHL · 3.1y

Jakub Vrana 14′#13	62 pk	406 GP
Grigori Denisenko 18′#15	never stuck	33 GP
Michael Dal Colle 14′#5	20 pk	112 GP
Jake DeBrusk 15′#14	64 pk	628 GP
Joel Eriksson Ek 15′#20	68 pk	614 GP

47. Matvei Gridin70% NHL · 2.1y

Jesper Boqvist 17′#36	34 pk	387 GP
Tanner Pearson 12′#30	53 pk	778 GP
Jack Drury 18′#42	30 pk	268 GP
Eetu Luostarinen 17′#42	43 pk	447 GP
Vladislav Kamenev 14′#42	never stuck	66 GP

53. Ilya Protas68% NHL · 2.7y

Emil Bemstrom 17′#117	33 pk	242 GP
Jack Drury 18′#42	30 pk	268 GP
Lucas Wallmark 14′#97	31 pk	187 GP
Artturi Lehkonen 13′#55	65 pk	660 GP
Carl Grundstrom 16′#57	27 pk	339 GP

54. Ivar Stenberg70% NHL · 3.5y

Jakub Vrana 14′#13	62 pk	406 GP
Elias Pettersson 17′#5	105 pk	545 GP
Michael Dal Colle 14′#5	20 pk	112 GP
Jake DeBrusk 15′#14	64 pk	628 GP
Grigori Denisenko 18′#15	never stuck	33 GP

62. Roman Kantserov53% NHL · 1.3y

Kirill Kaprizov 15′#135	112 pk	397 GP
Pavel Buchnevich 13′#75	87 pk	674 GP
Ivan Morozov 18′#61	never stuck	0 GP
Jonathan Dahlen 16′#42	never stuck	61 GP
Nikolai Kovalenko 18′#171	never stuck	57 GP

63. Konsta Helenius62% NHL · 2.3y

Jakub Vrana 14′#13	62 pk	406 GP
Jesper Boqvist 17′#36	34 pk	387 GP
Jack Drury 18′#42	30 pk	268 GP
Jake DeBrusk 15′#14	64 pk	628 GP
Tyler Benson 16′#32	never stuck	38 GP

64. Lucas Pettersson68% NHL · 2.3y

Vladislav Kamenev 14′#42	never stuck	66 GP
Tanner Pearson 12′#30	53 pk	778 GP
Jesse Ylonen 18′#35	35 pk	111 GP
Bo Groulx 18′#54	never stuck	78 GP
Adrian Kempe 14′#29	80 pk	711 GP