Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
1	Daxon Rudolph★	D	WHL	18.5	BUF*	26′ #4	1.15	28.2	85%	1.6y @20.1	254979	46.4
2	Chase Reid★	D	OHL	18.6	SEA*	26′ #7	1.07	26.2	82%	1.6y @20.2	224376	42.5
3	Carson Carels★	D	WHL	18.2	CGY*	26′ #6	1.26	31	75%	1.8y @20	164477	41.5
4	Jackson Smith★	D	NCAA	19.3	CBJ	25′ #14	0.74	25	78%	1.8y @21.1	153673	38.1
5	Keaton Verhoeff★	D	NCAA	18.2	SJS	26′ #9	0.56	18.7	68%	1.7y @19.9	154377	37.9
6	Radim Mrtka★	D	WHL	19.2	BUF	25′ #9	0.79	19.5	78%	1.4y @20.6	153372	37.6
7	Ryan Lin★	D	WHL	18.3	SJS*	26′ #21	1.08	26.5	68%	1.7y @20	153366	35
8	Adam Jiricek	D	OHL	20.1	STL	24′ #16	1.07	26.4	75%	2.3y @22.4	172965	33.1
9	Xavier Villeneuve	D	LHJMQ	18.9	CHI*	26′ #34	1.03	23.6	68%	2.2y @21.1	152964	32.1
10	Kashawn Aitcheson	D	OHL	19.9	NYI*	25′ #17	1.25	30.8	75%	2.3y @22.2	142965	31.4
11	Landon DuPont	D	WHL	17.2	—	—	1.16	28.5	60%	3.5y @20.7	02462	28.6
12	Henry Brzustewicz	D	OHL	19.5	LAK*	25′ #31	0.92	22.5	68%	2.4y @21.9	82664	26.9
13	Cole Hutson	D	NCAA	20.1	WSH	24′ #43	0.91	30.7	62%	2.6y @22.7	02552	25.4
14	Carter Yakemchuk	D	AHLPRO	20.9	OTT	24′ #7	0.74	26.7	62%	1.9y @22.8	132652	24.9
15	Quinn Norman	D	LHJMQ	16.7	—	—	0.22	5.1	53%	5.4y @22.1	02255	24.3
16	Logan Hensler	D	NCAA	19.8	OTT	25′ #23	0.52	17.5	62%	2.4y @22.2	02052	23.1
17	Peter Green	D	OHL	17.1	—	—	0.22	5.4	53%	5y @22.1	02053	22.8
18	Kohyn Eshkawkogan	D	OHL	17.7	—	—	0.78	19.2	53%	4.4y @22.1	02053	22.8
19	Matthew Perreault	D	OHL	17.1	—	—	0.46	11.4	53%	5y @22.1	02053	22.8
20	Colt Carter	D	WHL	17.1	—	—	0.62	15.3	53%	5y @22.1	02053	22.8
21	Brock Cripps	D	WHL	17.1	—	—	0.6	14.7	53%	5y @22.1	02053	22.8
22	Boston Tait	D	WHL	17.4	—	—	0.37	9.1	53%	4.7y @22.1	02053	22.8
23	Malik L'Italien	D	LHJMQ	17.2	—	—	0.38	8.6	53%	4.9y @22.1	02053	22.8
24	Thomas Charbonneau	D	LHJMQ	17.2	—	—	0.23	5.3	53%	4.9y @22.1	02053	22.8
25	Levi Harper	D	OHL	17.9	—	—	0.84	20.6	53%	4.2y @22.1	02053	22.4
26	Matthew Henderson	D	OHL	17.4	—	—	0.29	7	50%	4.9y @22.3	02053	22.4
27	Anthony Timmerman	D	OHL	16.9	—	—	0.13	3.3	50%	5.4y @22.3	02053	22.4
28	Kaden Aucoin	D	OHL	17	—	—	0.11	2.8	50%	5.3y @22.3	02053	22.4
29	Jaxon Pisani	D	WHL	17.4	—	—	0.1	2.6	50%	4.9y @22.3	02053	22.4
30	Cohen Williams	D	WHL	17.1	—	—	0.15	3.7	50%	5.2y @22.3	02053	22.4
31	Grayson Tash	D	WHL	17.4	—	—	0.18	4.4	50%	4.9y @22.3	02053	22.4
32	Cameron Minella	D	LHJMQ	17	—	—	0.14	3.2	50%	5.3y @22.3	02053	22.4
33	Justin Beaulieu	D	LHJMQ	17.1	—	—	0.18	4.1	50%	5.2y @22.3	02053	22.4
34	Xavier Cormier	D	LHJMQ	17.7	—	—	0.4	9.3	53%	4.7y @22.4	02050	22.2
35	Harry Mattern	D	WHL	17	—	—	0.08	2	50%	5.4y @22.4	02053	22
36	Alberts Smits	D	LIIGAPRO	18.7	NYR	26′ #5	0.34	15.1	62%	3.9y @22.6	112245	21.9
37	Carter Kunopaski	D	OHL	17.5	—	—	0.14	3.4	50%	4.9y @22.4	02050	21.8
38	Maksim Sokolovskii	D	OHL	18.1	PHI*	26′ #27	0.18	4.5	50%	3.9y @22	01655	21.7
39	Jakub Vanecek	D	WHL	18.5	DAL*	26′ #59	0.59	14.6	50%	3.3y @21.8	01655	21.6
40	Michael D'Alessio	D	OHL	17.7	—	—	0.33	8.2	50%	4.6y @22.3	01850	21.5
41	Luca Blonda	D	OHL	17.7	—	—	0.38	9.4	50%	4.6y @22.3	01850	21.5
42	Filip Kovalcik	D	LHJMQ	17.6	—	—	0.32	7.3	50%	4.7y @22.3	01850	21.5
43	Malte Gustafsson	D	SHLPRO	18.2	NYI	26′ #13	0.11	5.4	60%	4.2y @22.4	112245	21.4
44	Juho Piiparinen	D	LIIGAPRO	18	VGK	26′ #29	0.1	4.6	60%	4.6y @22.6	112243	21.3
45	Adam Goljer	D	SLOVAKIAPRO	18.2	LAK*	26′ #49	0.26	7.3	60%	4.4y @22.6	112243	21.3
46	Luke Christopherson	D	WHL	17.3	—	—	0.06	1.4	47%	5.3y @22.6	01653	21.1
47	Joaquin Geras	D	WHL	17.6	—	—	0.22	5.4	47%	4.8y @22.4	01650	21.1
48	Madden Tymchak	D	WHL	17.5	—	—	0.05	1.2	47%	4.9y @22.4	01650	21.1
49	Owen Hayden	D	WHL	17.6	—	—	0.02	0.6	47%	4.8y @22.4	01650	21.1
50	Benson Hirst	D	WHL	17.8	—	—	0.03	0.6	47%	4.6y @22.4	01650	21.1
51	Aden Bouchard	D	WHL	17.4	—	—	0.09	2.2	47%	5y @22.4	01650	21.1
52	Daniel Vaillant	D	WHL	17.5	—	—	0.16	4	47%	4.9y @22.4	01650	21.1
53	Rhett Sather	D	WHL	17.9	—	—	0.61	14.9	50%	4.5y @22.4	01850	21
54	Oliver Bonk	D	AHLPRO	21.6	PHI	23′ #22	0.41	14.9	60%	1.2y @22.8	82244	20.8
55	Griffin Darby	D	WHL	17.9	—	—	0.23	5.6	47%	4.7y @22.6	01650	20.6
56	Harrison Brunicke	D	WHL	20.3	PIT*	24′ #44	1	24.6	55%	2.5y @22.8	02151	20.3
57	Odin Vauhkonen	D	WHL	17.9	—	—	0.35	8.7	47%	4.5y @22.4	01650	20.3
58	Drew Roscoe	D	OHL	17.5	—	—	0.1	2.5	47%	5.1y @22.6	01650	20.2
59	Stian Solberg	D	AHLPRO	20.6	ANA	24′ #23	0.34	12.2	60%	2.1y @22.7	101942	20.1
60	Genc Ula	D	OHL	17.8	—	—	0.22	5.3	47%	4.8y @22.6	01650	20.1
61	Anton Silayev	D	KHLPRO	20.4	NJD	24′ #10	0.05	3.1	57%	2.4y @22.8	101942	20
62	Nikita Shcherbakov	D	VHLPRO	18.8	NJD*	26′ #44	0.29	7	57%	3.9y @22.7	101942	20
63	Leo Sahlin Wallenius	D	SHLPRO	20.4	SJS	24′ #53	0.41	19.7	55%	2.2y @22.6	111934	19.8
64	Theodore Lechner	D	USHL	18	COL*	26′ #152	0.1	1.9	45%	4.4y @22.4	01650	19.8
65	Tanner Molendyk	D	AHLPRO	21.5	NSH*	23′ #24	0.38	13.8	55%	1.3y @22.8	01844	19.6
66	Alfons Freij	D	SHLPRO	20.5	WPG	24′ #37	0.26	12.7	55%	2.1y @22.6	01843	19.6
67	Jacob Hamel	D	LHJMQ	17.9	—	—	0.07	1.6	45%	4.9y @22.8	01649	19.5
68	Cohen Paquet	D	LHJMQ	17.7	—	—	0.05	1.2	45%	5.1y @22.8	01649	19.5
69	Sam Rinzel	D	AHLPRO	22.2	CHI	22′ #25	0.61	22	45%	1y @23.2	01645	19.2
70	David Reinbacher	D	AHLPRO	21.8	MTL	23′ #5	0.42	15.2	53%	1y @22.8	01842	18.9
71	Dominik Badinka	D	AHLPRO	20.7	CAR*	24′ #34	0.21	7.4	57%	2y @22.7	01834	18.6
72	Dmitri Simashev	D	AHLPRO	21.5	UTA	—	0.88	31.6	47%	2.4y @23.9	01352	18.6
73	William Hakansson	D	SHLPRO	18.9	CAR	26′ #51	0.09	4.4	55%	3.5y @22.4	01834	18.5
74	Cooper Campbell	D	LHJMQ	17.9	—	—	0.2	4.6	42%	4.7y @22.6	01648	18.2
75	Brady Blaseg	D	OHL	18.1	—	—	0.2	5	45%	4.7y @22.8	01645	18.1
76	Kevin Korchinski	D	AHLPRO	22.2	CHI*	22′ #7	0.49	17.7	45%	0.6y @22.8	01642	18
77	Harris Pangretitsch	D	OHL	18.4	OTT*	26′ #151	0.21	5.1	42%	4.4y @22.8	01645	17.6
78	Paul Fischer	D	NCAAPRO	21.6	STL*	23′ #138	0.7	23.4	45%	1.7y @23.3	01344	17.4
79	George Fegaras	D	NCAAPRO	22.3	DAL*	22′ #83	0.62	20.8	38%	1.8y @24.1	01352	17.3
80	Luca Cagnoni	D	AHLPRO	21.7	SJS*	23′ #123	0.64	23.2	45%	1.6y @23.3	01344	17.3
81	Biagio Jr Daniele	D	LHJMQ	18.1	—	—	0.3	6.8	42%	4.7y @22.8	01645	17.3
82	Tyson Jugnauth	D	AHLPRO	22.3	SEA*	22′ #100	0.62	22.6	40%	1.7y @24	01344	17.2
83	David Byrne	D	WHL	18	—	—	0.1	2.4	42%	4.8y @22.8	01645	17.2
84	Ty Nelson	D	AHLPRO	22.4	SEA*	22′ #68	0.56	20	35%	1.4y @23.8	01352	17.1
85	Lasse Boelius	D	LIIGAPRO	19.4	ANA*	25′ #60	0.2	8.9	53%	3.1y @22.5	01832	17.1
86	Leon Muggli	D	AHLPRO	20.1	WSH*	24′ #52	0.26	9.4	53%	2.4y @22.5	01832	17
87	Brek Liske	D	WHL	18.6	PHI*	26′ #53	0.46	11.4	47%	4y @22.6	01644	16.9
88	Eric Pohlkamp	D	NCAAPRO	22.4	SJS	23′ #132	0.91	30.5	40%	1.7y @24.1	01344	16.9
89	Francesco Dell'Elce	D	NCAAPRO	21.2	COL*	25′ #77	0.58	19.6	45%	1.5y @22.7	01343	16.8
90	Jonas Kemps	D	USHL	18.6	FLA*	26′ #98	0.16	3.1	42%	4.2y @22.8	01644	16.7
91	Kasper Kulonummi	D	LIIGAPRO	22.5	NSH*	22′ #84	0.5	22.1	38%	1.6y @24.1	01344	16.6
92	Maxim Strbak	D	NCAAPRO	21.4	BUF	23′ #45	0.49	16.4	47%	1.4y @22.8	01344	16.5
93	Sean Matthew Goyette	D	OHL	18.3	—	—	0.28	6.8	40%	4.5y @22.8	01545	16.4
94	Brandon Delarosbil	D	LHJMQ	18.2	—	—	0.37	8.4	40%	4.6y @22.8	01545	16.4
95	Alexander Grunin	D	MHL	18.1	OTT*	26′ #183	0.34	5	40%	4.7y @22.8	01545	16.4
96	Alofa Tunoa Ta'amu	D	WHL	18.2	WPG*	26′ #199	0.19	4.8	40%	4.6y @22.8	01545	16.4
97	Alex Huang	D	LHJMQ	19.1	NSH*	25′ #122	1.13	25.9	45%	2.9y @22	01151	16.2
98	Gavin McCarthy	D	NCAAPRO	21.2	BUF	23′ #86	0.58	19.6	42%	1.5y @22.7	01143	16
99	Anton Johansson	D	SHLPRO	22.2	DET	22′ #105	0.4	19.6	38%	1.8y @24	01344	15.9
100	Chase Cheslock	D	NCAAPRO	21.8	NJD*	23′ #154	0.63	21.2	40%	1.7y @23.5	01143	15.8

Who each prospect looks like

1. Daxon Rudolph85% NHL · 1.6y

Quinn Hughes 18′#7	92 pk	507 GP
Mikhail Sergachev 16′#9	66 pk	630 GP
Adam Boqvist 18′#8	43 pk	272 GP
Evan Bouchard 18′#10	95 pk	429 GP
Seth Jones 13′#4	60 pk	912 GP

2. Chase Reid82% NHL · 1.6y

Adam Boqvist 18′#8	43 pk	272 GP
Quinn Hughes 18′#7	92 pk	507 GP
Evan Bouchard 18′#10	95 pk	429 GP
Darnell Nurse 13′#7	53 pk	798 GP
Mikhail Sergachev 16′#9	66 pk	630 GP

3. Carson Carels75% NHL · 1.8y

Mikhail Sergachev 16′#9	66 pk	630 GP
Quinn Hughes 18′#7	92 pk	507 GP
Jakob Chychrun 16′#16	64 pk	621 GP
Evan Bouchard 18′#10	95 pk	429 GP
Darnell Nurse 13′#7	53 pk	798 GP

4. Jackson Smith78% NHL · 1.8y

Adam Boqvist 18′#8	43 pk	272 GP
Dennis Cholowski 16′#20	25 pk	173 GP
Slater Koekkoek 12′#10	20 pk	186 GP
Mathew Dumba 12′#7	56 pk	748 GP
Rasmus Sandin 18′#29	33 pk	382 GP

5. Keaton Verhoeff68% NHL · 1.7y

Mikhail Sergachev 16′#9	66 pk	630 GP
Jakob Chychrun 16′#16	64 pk	621 GP
Darnell Nurse 13′#7	53 pk	798 GP
Ian McCoshen 13′#31	never stuck	60 GP
Noah Hanifin 15′#5	49 pk	829 GP

6. Radim Mrtka78% NHL · 1.4y

Erik Brannstrom 17′#15	36 pk	294 GP
Morgan Rielly 12′#5	72 pk	951 GP
Derrick Pouliot 12′#8	26 pk	226 GP
Jeremy Roy 15′#31	never stuck	0 GP
Olli Maatta 12′#22	55 pk	804 GP

7. Ryan Lin68% NHL · 1.7y

Jakob Chychrun 16′#16	64 pk	621 GP
Mikhail Sergachev 16′#9	66 pk	630 GP
Ian McCoshen 13′#31	never stuck	60 GP
Quinn Hughes 18′#7	92 pk	507 GP
Evan Bouchard 18′#10	95 pk	429 GP

8. Adam Jiricek75% NHL · 2.3y

Dante Fabbro 16′#17	34 pk	451 GP
Jacob Bernard-Docker 18′#26	16 pk	207 GP
Jake Bean 16′#13	31 pk	277 GP
Shea Theodore 13′#26	73 pk	634 GP
Ryan Pulock 13′#15	42 pk	636 GP

9. Xavier Villeneuve68% NHL · 2.2y

Henri Jokiharju 17′#29	30 pk	448 GP
Jordan Schmaltz 12′#25	never stuck	42 GP
Olli Maatta 12′#22	55 pk	804 GP
Erik Brannstrom 17′#15	36 pk	294 GP
Jeremy Roy 15′#31	never stuck	0 GP

10. Kashawn Aitcheson75% NHL · 2.3y

Tony DeAngelo 14′#19	65 pk	482 GP
Nils Lundkvist 18′#28	26 pk	235 GP
Juuso Välimäki 17′#16	36 pk	271 GP
Ryan Pulock 13′#15	42 pk	636 GP
Ryan Merkley 18′#21	never stuck	39 GP

11. Landon DuPont60% NHL · 3.5y

Joakim Ryan 12′#198	16 pk	145 GP
Ian McCoshen 13′#31	never stuck	60 GP
Keaton Thompson 13′#87	never stuck	0 GP
Mike Matheson 12′#23	62 pk	705 GP
Tanner Faith 14′#139	never stuck	0 GP

12. Henry Brzustewicz68% NHL · 2.4y

Rasmus Sandin 18′#29	33 pk	382 GP
Libor Hajek 16′#37	15 pk	110 GP
Chris Bigras 13′#32	never stuck	46 GP
Dennis Cholowski 16′#20	25 pk	173 GP
Thomas Chabot 15′#18	64 pk	569 GP