Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
4	Jackson Smith★	D	NCAA	19.3	CBJ	25′ #14	0.74	25	78%	1.8y @21.1	153673	38.1
5	Keaton Verhoeff★	D	NCAA	18.2	SJS	26′ #9	0.56	18.7	68%	1.7y @19.9	154377	37.9
13	Cole Hutson	D	NCAA	20.1	WSH	24′ #43	0.91	30.7	62%	2.6y @22.7	02552	25.4
16	Logan Hensler	D	NCAA	19.8	OTT	25′ #23	0.52	17.5	62%	2.4y @22.2	02052	23.1
78	Paul Fischer	D	NCAAPRO	21.6	STL*	23′ #138	0.7	23.4	45%	1.7y @23.3	01344	17.4
79	George Fegaras	D	NCAAPRO	22.3	DAL*	22′ #83	0.62	20.8	38%	1.8y @24.1	01352	17.3
88	Eric Pohlkamp	D	NCAAPRO	22.4	SJS*	23′ #132	0.91	30.5	40%	1.7y @24.1	01344	16.9
89	Francesco Dell'Elce	D	NCAAPRO	21.2	COL*	25′ #77	0.58	19.6	45%	1.5y @22.7	01343	16.8
92	Maxim Strbak	D	NCAAPRO	21.4	BUF*	23′ #45	0.49	16.4	47%	1.4y @22.8	01344	16.5
98	Gavin McCarthy	D	NCAAPRO	21.2	BUF*	23′ #86	0.58	19.6	42%	1.5y @22.7	01143	16
100	Chase Cheslock	D	NCAAPRO	21.8	NJD*	23′ #154	0.63	21.2	40%	1.7y @23.5	01143	15.8
114	Luke Osburn	D	NCAA	19.9	BUF*	24′ #108	0.64	21.4	42%	2.6y @22.5	01143	15.1
137	Drew Fortescue	D	NCAAPRO	21.3	NYR	23′ #90	0.39	13.1	38%	1.4y @22.7	01132	13.7
138	Justin Kipkie	D	NCAAPRO	21.1	MIN*	25′ #141	0.37	12.5	35%	1.6y @22.7	0743	13.7
141	Zachary Sharp	D	NCAAPRO	21.4	SJS*	25′ #124	0.51	17.3	38%	2.1y @23.5	01131	13.6
143	Larry Keenan	D	NCAAPRO	21.4	DET*	23′ #117	0.53	17.7	38%	1.4y @22.8	01131	13.4
155	Garrett Brown	D	NCAAPRO	22.4	WPG*	22′ #99	0.41	13.8	40%	2.4y @24.8	01127	12.8
158	Hoyt Stanley	D	NCAAPRO	21.5	OTT*	23′ #108	0.44	14.8	33%	2y @23.5	0731	12.8
171	Brady Cleveland	D	NCAAPRO	21.4	DET*	23′ #47	0.05	1.7	40%	1.4y @22.8	01129	12.2
172	Sascha Boumedienne	D	NCAA	19.6	WPG	25′ #28	0.29	9.6	38%	2.5y @22.1	0027	12.2
174	Landon Nycz	D	NCAA	18.9	STL*	26′ #107	0.09	2.9	33%	4.2y @23.1	0029	12
186	Matthew Morden	D	NCAAPRO	22.1	ARI*	22′ #131	0.59	19.8	33%	2y @24.1	01127	11.7
189	Xavier Veilleux	D	NCAA	20.4	NYI*	24′ #179	0.76	25.7	33%	2.4y @22.8	0031	11.6
202	Lincoln Kuehne	D	NCAA	18.7	NYI*	26′ #109	0.07	2.2	30%	4.2y @22.9	0029	11.3
203	Vladislav Lukashevich	D	NCAAPRO	23.2	FLA*	21′ #120	0.64	21.4	33%	1.2y @24.4	0036	11.2
221	EJ Emery	D	NCAA	20.4	NYR	24′ #30	0.34	11.5	33%	3.3y @23.7	0031	10.9
243	Abram Wiebe	D	NCAAPRO	23	CGY	—	0.72	24.4	30%	1.2y @24.2	0031	10.4
254	Aram Minnetian	D	NCAAPRO	21.4	DAL*	23′ #125	0.31	10.3	30%	2.5y @23.9	0426	10.2
255	Ryan Healey	D	NCAAPRO	22.3	MIN*	22′ #121	0.35	11.9	33%	2.7y @25	0026	10.1
257	Eric Jamieson	D	NCAAPRO	21.1	CGY*	24′ #177	0.42	14.1	28%	2.3y @23.4	0026	10.1
258	Jacob Rombach	D	NCAA	19.4	NSH*	25′ #35	0.11	3.7	30%	2.7y @22.1	0027	10.1
261	Charlton Trethewey	D	NCAA	19	PIT*	25′ #73	0.29	9.9	25%	3.3y @22.3	0029	10
271	Kalem Parker	D	NCAAPRO	21.9	MIN*	23′ #181	0.33	11.2	28%	2.7y @24.6	0026	9.8
272	Patrick Geary	D	NCAAPRO	22.5	BUF*	24′ #172	0.31	10.6	30%	2.4y @24.9	0029	9.8
276	Nate Misskey	D	NCAAPRO	21.6	SJS*	24′ #143	0.29	9.6	30%	2.5y @24.1	0026	9.6
277	Theo Wallberg	D	NCAAPRO	22.7	OTT*	22′ #168	0.38	12.7	30%	2.2y @24.9	0029	9.5
285	Kristian Kostadinski	D	NCAAPRO	21.3	BOS*	23′ #220	0.09	3	28%	2.8y @24.1	0026	9.3
288	Luke Ashton	D	NCAAPRO	21.6	CBJ*	24′ #165	0.32	10.9	28%	3y @24.6	0026	9.2
289	Fisher Scott	D	NCAAPRO	21.8	DET*	24′ #208	0.39	13.1	28%	2.3y @24.1	0026	9.2
293	Aiden Celebrini	D	NCAAPRO	21.8	VAN*	23′ #171	0.2	6.7	25%	2.8y @24.6	0026	9.1
295	Adam Kleber	D	NCAA	20.4	BUF*	24′ #42	0.3	10.1	25%	3.4y @23.8	0029	9.1
297	Graham Sward	D	NCAAPRO	22.9	NSH*	22′ #146	0.4	13.4	25%	2y @24.9	0027	9
312	Asher Barnett	D	NCAA	19.3	EDM*	25′ #131	0.45	15.1	23%	3.5y @22.8	0029	8.8
318	Warren Clark	D	NCAAPRO	22	TBL*	23′ #179	0.18	6.1	28%	3.5y @25.5	0026	8.7
321	Jack Phelan	D	NCAAPRO	22.2	DET*	23′ #137	0.24	8.2	28%	2.4y @24.6	0026	8.6
327	Andrew Strathmann	D	NCAAPRO	21.5	CBJ*	23′ #98	0.16	5.3	28%	2.3y @23.8	0024	8.5
335	Matteo Mann	D	NCAAPRO	21.6	PHI*	23′ #199	0.07	2.4	25%	2.5y @24.1	0026	8.4
336	Michael Fisher	D	NCAAPRO	22.3	SJS*	22′ #76	0.24	8.2	30%	1.9y @24.2	0026	8.3
355	Filip Nordberg	D	NCAAPRO	22.5	OTT*	22′ #64	0.18	6.2	28%	1.5y @24	0026	7.6
359	Elliott Groenewold	D	NCAA	20.5	BOS*	24′ #110	0.5	16.8	15%	3.4y @23.9	0026	7.5
361	Charlie Leddy	D	NCAAPRO	22.6	NJD*	22′ #126	0.24	8.1	23%	1.9y @24.5	0026	7.3
363	Sean Keohane	D	NCAAPRO	21.8	BUF*	23′ #173	0.09	3	25%	2.3y @24.1	0024	7.3
395	Colin Ralph	D	NCAA	20.9	STL*	24′ #48	0.3	10	23%	3y @23.9	0027	6.6
408	Malte Vass	D	NCAA	19.4	CBJ*	25′ #76	0.14	4.6	23%	2.9y @22.3	0026	6.4
426	Luke Mittelstadt	D	NCAAPRO	23.6	MTL*	23′ #197	0.58	19.6	17%	1.3y @24.9	0026	6
431	Drew Schock	D	NCAA	19.5	ANA*	25′ #101	0.26	8.8	20%	5.1y @24.6	0025	5.9
432	Viking Gustafsson Nyberg	D	NCAAPRO	22.9	MIN	—	0.29	9.7	17%	2y @24.9	0026	5.8
452	Bauer Berry	D	NCAA	20.8	EDM*	24′ #218	0.38	12.7	12%	3.1y @23.9	0026	5.3
453	Sean Barnhill	D	NCAA	19.6	NYR*	25′ #70	0.11	3.6	20%	3.6y @23.2	0025	5.3
467	Nolan Collins	D	NCAAPRO	22.3	PIT*	22′ #167	0.08	2.7	15%	2.7y @25	0020	4.8
488	Caeden Herrington	D	NCAA	20.6	LAK*	25′ #120	0.24	7.9	15%	4.2y @24.8	0019	4.5
491	Jack Sparkes	D	NCAAPRO	22.8	LAK*	22′ #180	0.05	1.8	12%	3y @25.8	0020	4.3
492	Cal Thomas	D	NCAAPRO	23.3	ARI*	21′ #171	0.16	5.4	15%	2.6y @25.9	0020	4.3
510	Colton Roberts	D	NCAA	20.2	SJS*	24′ #131	0.38	12.8	7%	5.6y @25.8	0015	4.1
523	Ben Roger	D	NCAAPRO	23.8	OTT*	21′ #49	0.4	13.4	7%	now @23.3	0016	3.7
529	Cooper Cleaves	D	NCAA	20.6	MTL*	26′ #93	0.33	11.2	12%	4.3y @24.9	0014	3.7
535	Tomas Machu	D	NCAAPRO	23.5	NYI*	21′ #221	0.11	3.8	15%	2.4y @25.9	0020	3.5
548	Oscar Plandowski	D	NCAAPRO	23.3	DET*	21′ #155	0.07	2.2	12%	2.6y @25.9	0016	3.2
553	Tyson Galloway	D	NCAAPRO	23.6	STL*	21′ #145	0.24	8.1	10%	2.5y @26.1	0015	3.1
563	Sam Laurila	D	NCAA	20	NYI*	25′ #138	0.28	9.3	7%	5y @25	0015	3.1
564	Maxon Vig	D	NCAA	20.8	MTL*	25′ #209	0.19	6.5	10%	3.1y @23.9	0011	3.1
572	Aaron Pionk	D	NCAAPRO	23.6	MIN*	23′ #149	0.25	8.4	10%	2.5y @26.1	0010	2.7
584	Will Skahan	D	NCAA	20.3	UTA*	24′ #65	0.03	1.1	10%	3.3y @23.6	004	2.6
592	Nate Benoit	D	NCAAPRO	23.7	MIN*	21′ #182	0.42	14.1	7%	2.1y @25.8	0010	2.3
616	John Whipple	D	NCAA	20.6	DET*	24′ #144	0.06	1.9	7%	3.8y @24.4	000	1.5

Who each prospect looks like

4. Jackson Smith78% NHL · 1.8y

Adam Boqvist 18′#8	43 pk	272 GP
Dennis Cholowski 16′#20	25 pk	173 GP
Slater Koekkoek 12′#10	20 pk	186 GP
Mathew Dumba 12′#7	56 pk	748 GP
Rasmus Sandin 18′#29	33 pk	382 GP

5. Keaton Verhoeff68% NHL · 1.7y

Mikhail Sergachev 16′#9	66 pk	630 GP
Jakob Chychrun 16′#16	64 pk	621 GP
Darnell Nurse 13′#7	53 pk	798 GP
Ian McCoshen 13′#31	never stuck	60 GP
Noah Hanifin 15′#5	49 pk	829 GP

13. Cole Hutson62% NHL · 2.6y

Scott Perunovich 18′#45	26 pk	108 GP
Nils Lundkvist 18′#28	26 pk	235 GP
Josh Brook 17′#56	never stuck	0 GP
Sean Durzi 18′#52	44 pk	302 GP
Jacob Bernard-Docker 18′#26	16 pk	207 GP

16. Logan Hensler62% NHL · 2.4y

Julius Honka 14′#14	never stuck	87 GP
Julius Bergman 14′#46	never stuck	0 GP
Ryan Pulock 13′#15	42 pk	636 GP
Thomas Chabot 15′#18	64 pk	569 GP
Vince Dunn 15′#56	65 pk	623 GP

78. Paul Fischer45% NHL · 1.7y

Joey Keane 18′#88	never stuck	2 GP
Declan Chisholm 18′#150	23 pk	125 GP
Markus Nutivaara 15′#189	31 pk	275 GP
Lucas Carlsson 16′#110	never stuck	73 GP
Sami Niku 15′#198	never stuck	67 GP

79. George Fegaras38% NHL · 1.8y

Tarmo Reunanen 16′#98	never stuck	4 GP
Lucas Carlsson 16′#110	never stuck	73 GP
Reilly Walsh 17′#81	never stuck	1 GP
Andrei Mironov 15′#101	never stuck	10 GP
Josh Brook 17′#56	never stuck	0 GP

88. Eric Pohlkamp40% NHL · 1.7y

Colin Miller 12′#151	41 pk	590 GP
Christian Djoos 12′#195	25 pk	155 GP
Veeti Vainio 15′#141	never stuck	0 GP
Devon Toews 14′#108	71 pk	541 GP
Brandon Montour 14′#55	75 pk	665 GP

89. Francesco Dell'Elce45% NHL · 1.5y

Joey Keane 18′#88	never stuck	2 GP
Kale Clague 16′#51	never stuck	94 GP
Vince Dunn 15′#56	65 pk	623 GP
Filip Hronek 16′#53	52 pk	533 GP
Trevor Carrick 12′#115	never stuck	7 GP

92. Maxim Strbak47% NHL · 1.4y

Kale Clague 16′#51	never stuck	94 GP
Travis Dermott 15′#34	29 pk	348 GP
Filip Hronek 16′#53	52 pk	533 GP
Josh Jacobs 14′#41	never stuck	3 GP
Josh Brook 17′#56	never stuck	0 GP

98. Gavin McCarthy42% NHL · 1.5y

Joey Keane 18′#88	never stuck	2 GP
Kale Clague 16′#51	never stuck	94 GP
Trevor Carrick 12′#115	never stuck	7 GP
Vince Dunn 15′#56	65 pk	623 GP
Filip Hronek 16′#53	52 pk	533 GP

100. Chase Cheslock40% NHL · 1.7y

Declan Chisholm 18′#150	23 pk	125 GP
Markus Nutivaara 15′#189	31 pk	275 GP
Lucas Carlsson 16′#110	never stuck	73 GP
Andrei Mironov 15′#101	never stuck	10 GP
Sami Niku 15′#198	never stuck	67 GP

114. Luke Osburn42% NHL · 2.6y

Alexandre Carrier 15′#115	32 pk	369 GP
Vince Dunn 15′#56	65 pk	623 GP
Filip Kral 18′#149	never stuck	2 GP
Connor Corcoran 18′#154	never stuck	0 GP
Parker Wotherspoon 15′#112	31 pk	188 GP