Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
54	Ivar Stenberg	F	SHLPRO	18.9	SJS	26′ #2	0.77	37.1	70%	3.5y @22.4	183065	33.3
74	Quentin Musty	F	AHLPRO	21.1	SJS*	23′ #26	0.74	26.6	68%	1.6y @22.7	183069	31.5
82	Igor Chernyshov	F	AHLPRO	20.7	SJS*	24′ #33	0.8	29	68%	2.1y @22.8	183264	31
240	Kasper Halttunen	F	AHLPRO	21.2	SJS*	23′ #36	0.51	18.3	57%	1.6y @22.8	02555	24.9
372	Filip Bystedt	F	AHLPRO	22.5	SJS	22′ #27	0.92	33.3	47%	0.7y @23.2	02342	20.9
391	Brandon Svoboda	F	NCAAPRO	21.5	SJS*	23′ #71	0.43	14.4	45%	1.3y @22.8	01646	20.3
419	Leo Sahlin Wallenius	D	SHLPRO	20.4	SJS*	24′ #53	0.41	19.7	55%	2.2y @22.6	111934	19.8
452	Joey Muldowney	F	NCAAPRO	22.2	SJS*	22′ #172	0.85	28.7	38%	1.5y @23.7	01948	18.9
514	Luca Cagnoni	D	AHLPRO	21.7	SJS*	23′ #123	0.64	23.2	45%	1.6y @23.3	01344	17.3
536	Eric Pohlkamp	D	NCAAPRO	22.4	SJS*	23′ #132	0.91	30.5	40%	1.7y @24.1	01344	16.9
677	Yegor Rimashevskiy	F	KHLPRO	21.5	SJS*	23′ #203	0.2	12.4	25%	1.6y @23.1	0055	13.9
695	Zachary Sharp	D	NCAAPRO	21.4	SJS*	25′ #124	0.51	17.3	38%	2.1y @23.5	01131	13.6
920	David Klee	F	NCAAPRO	21.3	SJS*	23′ #196	0.25	8.4	20%	1.6y @22.9	0053	10.6
995	Nate Misskey	D	NCAAPRO	21.6	SJS*	24′ #143	0.29	9.6	30%	2.5y @24.1	0026	9.6
1050	Jake Furlong	D	AHLPRO	22.5	SJS*	22′ #140	0.24	8.7	28%	2.9y @25.4	0026	8.8
1081	Theo Jacobsson	F	ALLSVENSKANPRO	23.4	SJS*	21′ #177	0.63	19.8	17%	1.3y @24.7	0033	8.5
1082	Mattias Havelid	D	AHLPRO	22.6	SJS*	22′ #45	0.34	12.3	20%	1.5y @24.1	0027	8.5
1102	Michael Fisher	D	NCAAPRO	22.3	SJS*	22′ #76	0.24	8.2	30%	1.9y @24.2	0026	8.3
1111	Axel Landen	D	LIIGAPRO	21.4	SJS*	23′ #130	0.14	6.2	28%	2.5y @23.9	0023	8.3
1386	Ethan Cardwell	F	AHLPRO	24	SJS*	21′ #121	0.62	22.6	12%	2.2y @26.2	0027	5.6
2031	Max McCue	F	AHLPRO	23.5	SJS*	21′ #156	0.31	11.1	3%	0.4y @23.9	000	0.5

Who each prospect looks like

54. Ivar Stenberg70% NHL · 3.5y

Jakub Vrana 14′#13	62 pk	406 GP
Elias Pettersson 17′#5	105 pk	545 GP
Michael Dal Colle 14′#5	20 pk	112 GP
Jake DeBrusk 15′#14	64 pk	628 GP
Grigori Denisenko 18′#15	never stuck	33 GP

74. Quentin Musty68% NHL · 1.6y

Tanner Pearson 12′#30	53 pk	778 GP
Mitchell Stephens 15′#33	18 pk	123 GP
Jake DeBrusk 15′#14	64 pk	628 GP
Jesper Boqvist 17′#36	34 pk	387 GP
Eetu Luostarinen 17′#42	43 pk	447 GP

82. Igor Chernyshov68% NHL · 2.1y

Tanner Pearson 12′#30	53 pk	778 GP
Jesper Boqvist 17′#36	34 pk	387 GP
Eetu Luostarinen 17′#42	43 pk	447 GP
Mitchell Stephens 15′#33	18 pk	123 GP
Jack Drury 18′#42	30 pk	268 GP

240. Kasper Halttunen57% NHL · 1.6y

Adam Erne 13′#33	36 pk	424 GP
Jesse Ylonen 18′#35	35 pk	111 GP
Ivan Barbashev 14′#33	61 pk	667 GP
Joe Veleno 18′#30	29 pk	367 GP
Valentin Zykov 13′#37	never stuck	55 GP

372. Filip Bystedt47% NHL · 0.7y

Jonatan Berggren 18′#33	36 pk	205 GP
Egor Korshkov 16′#31	never stuck	1 GP
Nick Sorensen 13′#45	never stuck	5 GP
Morgan Klimchuk 13′#28	never stuck	1 GP
Tyler Benson 16′#32	never stuck	38 GP

391. Brandon Svoboda45% NHL · 1.3y

Scott Kosmachuk 12′#70	never stuck	8 GP
Allan McShane 18′#97	never stuck	0 GP
Fabian Zetterlund 17′#63	46 pk	329 GP
Vaclav Karabacek 14′#49	never stuck	0 GP
Carsen Twarynski 16′#82	never stuck	22 GP

419. Leo Sahlin Wallenius55% NHL · 2.2y

Filip Hronek 16′#53	52 pk	533 GP
Vince Dunn 15′#56	65 pk	623 GP
Kale Clague 16′#51	never stuck	94 GP
Travis Dermott 15′#34	29 pk	348 GP
Joey Keane 18′#88	never stuck	2 GP

452. Joey Muldowney38% NHL · 1.5y

Jonathan Davidsson 17′#170	never stuck	6 GP
Riley Barber 12′#167	never stuck	16 GP
Rourke Chartier 14′#149	never stuck	56 GP
Jacob Peterson 17′#132	never stuck	83 GP
Alan Quine 13′#166	24 pk	106 GP

514. Luca Cagnoni45% NHL · 1.6y

Joey Keane 18′#88	never stuck	2 GP
Declan Chisholm 18′#150	23 pk	125 GP
Lucas Carlsson 16′#110	never stuck	73 GP
Andrei Mironov 15′#101	never stuck	10 GP
Markus Nutivaara 15′#189	31 pk	275 GP

536. Eric Pohlkamp40% NHL · 1.7y

Colin Miller 12′#151	41 pk	590 GP
Christian Djoos 12′#195	25 pk	155 GP
Veeti Vainio 15′#141	never stuck	0 GP
Devon Toews 14′#108	71 pk	541 GP
Brandon Montour 14′#55	75 pk	665 GP

677. Yegor Rimashevskiy25% NHL · 1.6y

Anton Blidh 13′#180	never stuck	89 GP
Viktor Crus Rydberg 13′#136	never stuck	0 GP
Roy Radke 15′#164	never stuck	0 GP
Cole Ully 13′#131	never stuck	0 GP
Daniel Bernhardt 15′#119	never stuck	0 GP

695. Zachary Sharp38% NHL · 2.1y

Trevor Carrick 12′#115	never stuck	7 GP
Declan Chisholm 18′#150	23 pk	125 GP
Joey Keane 18′#88	never stuck	2 GP
Lucas Carlsson 16′#110	never stuck	73 GP
Christian Jaros 15′#139	never stuck	94 GP