Prospect Rankings
Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.
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How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.
Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.
| # | Player | Pos | League | Age | Org | Draft | P/GP | NHLe | P(NHL) | ETA | Upside band | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 98 | Charlie Cerrato | F | NCAAPRO | 21.4 | CAR | 25′ #49 | 1.17 | 39.5 | 68% | 1.6y @23 | 203153 | 30 |
| 155 | Jayden Perron | F | NCAAPRO | 21.6 | CAR* | 23′ #94 | 1.02 | 34.5 | 62% | 1.4y @23 | 153149 | 28.1 |
| 678 | Justin Poirier | F | NCAA | 20 | CAR* | 24′ #156 | 1.07 | 36.1 | 28% | 3.6y @23.6 | 0035 | 13.9 |
| 705 | Stiven Sardarian | F | NCAAPRO | 23.5 | CAR | 21′ #88 | 1.19 | 40 | 20% | 1.1y @24.6 | 0039 | 13.3 |
| 1604 | Michael Emerson | F | NCAAPRO | 22.7 | CAR* | 23′ #190 | 0.24 | 8.2 | 7% | 1.2y @23.9 | 0020 | 4.2 |
Who each prospect looks like
98. Charlie Cerrato68% NHL · 1.6y
| Tyler Benson 16′#32 | never stuck | 38 GP |
| Jack Drury 18′#42 | 30 pk | 268 GP |
| Pavel Buchnevich 13′#75 | 87 pk | 674 GP |
| Jesper Boqvist 17′#36 | 34 pk | 387 GP |
| Jonatan Berggren 18′#33 | 36 pk | 205 GP |
155. Jayden Perron62% NHL · 1.4y
| Jacob Peterson 17′#132 | never stuck | 83 GP |
| Riley Damiani 18′#137 | never stuck | 7 GP |
| Artturi Lehkonen 13′#55 | 65 pk | 660 GP |
| Connor Brown 12′#156 | 51 pk | 676 GP |
| Lucas Wallmark 14′#97 | 31 pk | 187 GP |
678. Justin Poirier28% NHL · 3.6y
| Michael Bunting 14′#117 | 74 pk | 418 GP |
| Emil Bemstrom 17′#117 | 33 pk | 242 GP |
| Andreas Athanasiou 12′#110 | 58 pk | 495 GP |
| Jeremy Grégoire 13′#176 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Matthew Mistele 14′#180 | never stuck | 0 GP |
705. Stiven Sardarian20% NHL · 1.1y
| Pontus Holmberg 18′#156 | 29 pk | 229 GP |
| Carter Verhaeghe 13′#82 | 78 pk | 488 GP |
| Tommy Novak 15′#85 | 69 pk | 285 GP |
| Jens Looke 15′#83 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Glenn Gawdin 15′#116 | never stuck | 13 GP |
1604. Michael Emerson7% NHL · 1.2y
| Conner Bleackley 16′#144 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Damien Giroux 18′#155 | never stuck | 1 GP |
| Gabriel Fontaine 16′#171 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Matteo Gennaro 15′#203 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Igor Shvyrev 17′#125 | never stuck | 0 GP |