Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
84	Bradly Nadeau	F	AHLPRO	21.3	CAR*	23′ #30	1.08	38.9	68%	1.7y @23	183264	30.1
88	Charlie Cerrato	F	NCAAPRO	21.4	CAR	25′ #49	1.17	39.5	68%	1.6y @23	203153	30
144	Jayden Perron	F	NCAAPRO	21.6	CAR*	23′ #94	1.02	34.5	62%	1.4y @23	153149	28.1
154	Zachary Lansard	F	WHL	18.1	CAR*	26′ #68	0.82	20.3	53%	3.7y @21.8	02768	27.5
265	Alexander Rykov	F	KHLPRO	21.1	CAR*	23′ #100	0.27	16.9	47%	1.7y @22.8	01858	23.5
274	Ivan Ryabkin	F	AHLPRO	19.3	CAR*	25′ #62	0.32	11.6	50%	3.1y @22.4	01861	22.9
282	Michael Berchild	F	USHL	18.5	CAR*	26′ #105	0.9	17.8	45%	3.7y @22.2	0356	22.4
348	Viggo Nordlund	F	ALLSVENSKANPRO	19.9	CAR*	25′ #183	0.5	15.6	40%	2.8y @22.7	01255	19.9
457	Alexander Perevalov	F	VHLPRO	22.3	CAR*	22′ #71	0.59	14.4	38%	1.1y @23.4	01042	16.4
518	Timur Mukhanov	F	KHLPRO	21.2	CAR*	23′ #163	0.19	11.7	25%	1.6y @22.8	0055	14.9
547	Justin Poirier	F	NCAA	20	CAR*	24′ #156	1.07	36.1	28%	3.6y @23.6	0035	13.9
561	Stiven Sardarian	F	NCAAPRO	23.5	CAR	21′ #88	1.19	40	20%	1.1y @24.6	0039	13.3
574	Gleb Trikozov	F	AHLPRO	22	CAR*	22′ #60	0.24	8.6	33%	1.5y @23.5	0034	13.1
618	Justin Robidas	F	AHLPRO	23.4	CAR*	21′ #147	1.03	37.3	17%	1.1y @24.5	0039	12.3
630	Andrey Krutov	F	VHLPRO	20.3	CAR*	24′ #220	0.26	6.4	25%	2.8y @23.1	0037	11.9
706	Oskar Vuollet	F	SHLPRO	20.7	CAR*	24′ #133	0.14	6.6	23%	2.3y @23	0028	10.1
738	Fyodor Avramov	F	KHLPRO	20.8	CAR*	24′ #188	0.06	3.5	23%	2.5y @23.3	0028	9
986	Stanislav Yarovoi	F	VHLPRO	23	CAR*	23′ #126	0.43	10.6	10%	2.9y @25.9	0020	5.1
1066	Filip Ekberg	F	OHL	19.4	CAR*	25′ #221	0.78	19.2	10%	4.4y @23.8	000	4.3
1100	Michael Emerson	F	NCAAPRO	22.7	CAR*	23′ #190	0.24	8.2	7%	1.2y @23.9	0020	4.2

Who each prospect looks like

84. Bradly Nadeau68% NHL · 1.7y

Jesper Boqvist 17′#36	34 pk	387 GP
Tyler Benson 16′#32	never stuck	38 GP
Jack Drury 18′#42	30 pk	268 GP
Artturi Lehkonen 13′#55	65 pk	660 GP
Jonatan Berggren 18′#33	36 pk	205 GP

88. Charlie Cerrato68% NHL · 1.6y

Tyler Benson 16′#32	never stuck	38 GP
Jack Drury 18′#42	30 pk	268 GP
Pavel Buchnevich 13′#75	87 pk	674 GP
Jesper Boqvist 17′#36	34 pk	387 GP
Jonatan Berggren 18′#33	36 pk	205 GP

144. Jayden Perron62% NHL · 1.4y

Jacob Peterson 17′#132	never stuck	83 GP
Riley Damiani 18′#137	never stuck	7 GP
Artturi Lehkonen 13′#55	65 pk	660 GP
Connor Brown 12′#156	51 pk	676 GP
Lucas Wallmark 14′#97	31 pk	187 GP

154. Zachary Lansard53% NHL · 3.7y

Jarrod Maidens 12′#82	never stuck	0 GP
J.T. Compher 13′#35	52 pk	658 GP
Alex Formenton 17′#47	33 pk	109 GP
Ivan Morozov 18′#61	never stuck	0 GP
Eeli Tolvanen 17′#30	46 pk	423 GP

265. Alexander Rykov47% NHL · 1.7y

Connor Bunnaman 16′#109	never stuck	54 GP
Allan McShane 18′#97	never stuck	0 GP
Nick Baptiste 13′#69	never stuck	47 GP
Cole Ully 13′#131	never stuck	0 GP
Austin Wagner 15′#99	28 pk	178 GP

274. Ivan Ryabkin50% NHL · 3.1y

Matia Marcantuoni 12′#92	never stuck	0 GP
Dominic Turgeon 14′#63	never stuck	9 GP
Raphael Bussieres 12′#46	never stuck	0 GP
Tyler Bertuzzi 13′#58	75 pk	567 GP
Adrian Kempe 14′#29	80 pk	711 GP

282. Michael Berchild45% NHL · 3.7y

Jarrod Maidens 12′#82	never stuck	0 GP
Shane Eiserman 14′#100	never stuck	0 GP
Luke Johnson 13′#134	never stuck	32 GP
Jake Guentzel 13′#77	91 pk	681 GP
Ivan Morozov 18′#61	never stuck	0 GP

348. Viggo Nordlund40% NHL · 2.8y

Taylor Leier 12′#117	never stuck	55 GP
Maksim Sushko 17′#107	never stuck	2 GP
Ondrej Kase 14′#205	55 pk	258 GP
Philipp Kurashev 18′#120	59 pk	360 GP
Nick Caamano 16′#146	never stuck	36 GP

457. Alexander Perevalov38% NHL · 1.1y

Ryan Kujawinski 13′#73	never stuck	0 GP
Jake Leschyshyn 17′#62	never stuck	77 GP
Keegan Kolesar 15′#69	30 pk	439 GP
Jordan Martinook 12′#58	37 pk	797 GP
Akil Thomas 18′#51	never stuck	32 GP

518. Timur Mukhanov25% NHL · 1.6y

Cole Ully 13′#131	never stuck	0 GP
Viktor Crus Rydberg 13′#136	never stuck	0 GP
Austin Wagner 15′#99	28 pk	178 GP
Anton Blidh 13′#180	never stuck	89 GP
Nick Caamano 16′#146	never stuck	36 GP

547. Justin Poirier28% NHL · 3.6y

Michael Bunting 14′#117	74 pk	418 GP
Emil Bemstrom 17′#117	33 pk	242 GP
Andreas Athanasiou 12′#110	58 pk	495 GP
Jeremy Grégoire 13′#176	never stuck	0 GP
Matthew Mistele 14′#180	never stuck	0 GP

561. Stiven Sardarian20% NHL · 1.1y

Pontus Holmberg 18′#156	29 pk	229 GP
Carter Verhaeghe 13′#82	78 pk	488 GP
Tommy Novak 15′#85	69 pk	285 GP
Jens Looke 15′#83	never stuck	0 GP
Glenn Gawdin 15′#116	never stuck	13 GP