2026-27 Projections

Full-category forecasts by projected points. Method: four seasons of rates (2022-23 → 2025-26), recency-weighted (6/3/1.5/1 × games played) → regressed to position baseline by sample size, age-adjusted, goals blended with expected goals, 84-game season. Backtest-validated. The Upside view re-weights the scoring stats toward each player's recent ceiling — a draft-board read that trades accuracy for upside; Expected is the accuracy-optimal default.

These are the model's numbers. Think one is wrong? Set your own in the Advanced Projection Sandbox →

Rank by my categoriestick the ones your league counts — the order and the # column follow
#PlayerTeamPosRolePPTOIGPAgeGAP+/-PPPSHPSOGFOWHITBLK
1Connor McDavid EDM · CEDMCL1PP122.07829.74393135+16.75122734394828
2Nathan MacKinnon COL · CCOLCL1PP121.07931.14582126+40.43503366835643
3Macklin Celebrini SJS · CSJSCL1PP120.97920.34476120-1.53703146005152
4Leon Draisaitl EDM · CEDMCL2PP119.67730.94573117+17.94812247423922
5Nick Suzuki MTL · CMTLCL1PP119.98227.13172103+21.74111827166362
6Jack Hughes NJD · CNJDCL1PP120.07025.4356297+2.1322278192735
7Martin Necas COL · CCOLCL1PP120.37927.7336395+25.2290208307926
8Jack Eichel VGK · CVGKCL1PP120.27329.9286492+19.83032465393245
9Tim Stützle OTT · COTTCL1PP119.48024.7325890+2.433220029212544
10Mark Scheifele WPG · CWPGCL1PP120.57733.5325890+3.12211615694245
11Wyatt Johnston DAL · CDALCL1PP119.18223.4444689-1.03912244035351
12Jake Guentzel TBL · CTBLCL2PP118.47832374884+12.12922121733841
13Aleksander Barkov FLA · CFLACL1PP117.27531.1246084+8.63241776689456
14Sebastian Aho CAR · CCARCL1PP119.47929.2305383+10.22761986116125
15Robert Thomas STL · CSTLCL1PP118.67627.2255681+17.82031357061447
16Sidney Crosby PIT · CPITCL1PP119.26839.2295180-3.22501858116031
17Auston Matthews TOR · CTORCL2PP118.97529404080+3.82112917255697
18Leo Carlsson ANA · CANACL1PP119.97321.8334678+9.61931993991934
19Sam Reinhart FLA · CFLACL1PP120.37830.9384078-8.03152001297852
20Tage Thompson BUF · CBUFCL1PP118.97828.9393877-3.42312553627941
21Brayden Point TBL · CTBLCL2PP117.67730.6334173+10.02101683771634
22Connor Bedard CHI · CCHIC6121.2284673-13.62402092473226
23Dylan Larkin DET · CDETCL1PP120.07730.2343771-1.62612248174633
24Mika Zibanejad NYR · CNYRCL1PP120.57933.5274371-13.43031925548047
25Nico Hischier NJD · CNJDCL2PP118.77827.7323971-0.62511979665258
26Will Smith SJS · CSJSCL1PP118.27721.5274370-2.0210189321918
27J.T. Miller NYR · CNYRCL2PP118.77533.5234569-16.824215062215042
28John Tavares TOR · CTORCL1PP118.57436313768-12.52001787277628
29Roope Hintz DAL · CDALCL2PP116.77529.9264167+17.52411655146833
30Dylan Strome WSH · CWSHCL1PP118.08129.6234467+0.52501417451553
31Logan Cooley UTA · CUTACL2PP116.67522.4303666+0.91921613556935
32Nick Schmaltz UTA · CUTACL1PP118.97730.6264066+4.62111753301945
33Evgeni Malkin PIT · CPITCL2PP117.76140.2214566+2.12301541842727
34Mathew Barzal NYI · CNYICL1PP119.57129.3184866+7.61801641553145
35Bo Horvat NYI · CNYICL2PP118.77831.5333163+3.81622357796842
36Adam Fantilli CBJ · CCBJCL1PP118.27522293463-5.712120746512047
37Ryan O'Reilly NSH · CNSHCL2PP119.57435.6224062-0.61821336861758
38Elias Pettersson VAN · CVANCL1PP120.37727.9204161-16.924114160878100
39Vincent Trocheck UTA · CUTACL1PP219.57733.2214061-8.117314776220360
40Gabriel Vilardi WPG · CWPGCL2PP117.07027.1263460-2.9220129462035
41Matt Duchene DAL · CDALCL1PP216.87135.7213960+2.41901153363127
42Pavel Zacha BOS · CBOSCL1PP117.68029.5233659+2.31811274886827
43Dylan Cozens OTT · COTTCL2PP116.38125.6263358-7.024019748219530
44Morgan Geekie BOS · CBOSCL2PP116.07928.2302858-1.119015712411034
45Ryan Nugent-Hopkins EDM · CEDMCL1PP119.77633.5203758-3.12821392102935
46Tomas Hertl VGK · CVGKCL2PP116.37432.9263157-12.52201696359845
47Carter Verhaeghe FLA · CFLACL2PP216.67931.1253256-8.5140197337324
48Brock Nelson COL · CCOLCL2PP217.87635272956+9.51411666283552
49Sam Bennett FLA · CFLACL2PP216.57630.3263056-7.313019849512836
50Trevor Zegras PHI · CPHICL1PP117.86925.5213555-2.11701401114427
51Nazem Kadri COL · CCOLCL2PP118.17436233255-19.61902054974927
52Anthony Cirelli TBL · CTBLCL1PP217.97729.2233154+28.0551335704757
53Marco Rossi VAN · CVANCL2PP117.57525193454-14.01901164116241
54Steven Stamkos NSH · CNSHCL2PP116.97436.6302454-16.62301703177335
55Joel Eriksson Ek MIN · CMINCL2PP117.47329.7223254+13.017020070211741
56Matty Beniers SEA · CSEACL1PP119.18123.9223052-4.01201505243866
57Pierre-Luc Dubois WSH · CWSHCL2PP215.97228.3163652+4.31301164676242
58Ryan McLeod BUF · CBUFCL1PP217.67927153651+15.166905822234
59Anton Lundell FLA · CFLACL3PP216.37625203151+0.41441646098944
60Elias Lindholm BOS · CBOSCL2PP116.67831.8183351-5.91911317466866
61Mikael Granlund ANA · CANACL2PP118.87234.6193150-7.81601304114550
62Mason McTavish STL · CSTLCL2PP215.87423.7212848-8.71301584028533
63Chandler Stephenson SEA · CSEACL2PP118.27932.4143548-14.7162847372752
64Charlie Coyle CBJ · CCBJCL2PP216.67834.6183047+0.610111854210251
65Tyler Toffoli SJS · CSJSCL3PP115.07434.4212647-10.214016694827
66Anton Frondell CHI · CCHICL1PP118.47919.4331346+0.0160287010843
67Alexander Wennberg SJS · CSJSCL1PP120.38032143246-18.6131866153186
68Josh Norris BUF · CBUFCL2PP115.86427.4192545+5.01421044417743
69Ben Kindel PIT · CPITCL2PP215.57619.5212344-2.01231762823353
70Sean Monahan CBJ · CCBJCL2PP116.77332172844+3.31221276404035
71Casey Mittelstadt BOS · CBOSCL1PP216.97727.9152944+1.090912282726
72Dawson Mercer NJD · CNJDCL2PP217.38224.9222244-1.2821561093650
73Shane Pinto OTT · COTTCL2PP216.97125.9212243+4.4541464098650
74Frank Nazar CHI · CCHICL2PP216.86322.7172643-9.51221353433740
75Logan Stankoven CAR · CCARCL2PP216.27223.6192342+5.0801622834624
76Kyle Palmieri NYI · CNYICL1PP118.26535.7192342-7.710114595031
77Teuvo Teravainen CHI · CCHICL2PP117.67832.1142741-20.320296522238
78Cole Perfetti WPG · CWPGCL2PP115.37024.7162441-0.7100137115534
79Christian Dvorak PHI · CPHICL117.57130.7152540+3.3411125443550
80Andrew Copp DET · CDETCL2PP216.47532.2112839+2.461994973555
81Caleb Desnoyers UTA · CUTAC64112839+0.050141010035
82Morgan Frost CGY · CCGYCL1PP117.17727.4172238-10.61501305376043
83Brayden Schenn NYI · CNYICL1PP117.27635.1162238-16.48011146616641
84Emmitt Finnie DET · CDETCL1PP216.47921.3182038-4.0901354712740
85Matt Savoie EDM · CEDMCL3PP214.77122.7182037+1.672135291633
86Cole Sillinger CBJ · CCBJCL314.57623.4122537-2.02114115110344
87Tommy Novak PIT · CPITCL2PP215.47229.4162137-0.7701101821131
88Boone Jenner WSH · CWSHCL4PP214.16233.3142236+0.74112425412758
89Oliver Kapanen MTL · CMTLCL214.97423.2201636+0.8131292653055
90Ridly Greig OTT · COTTCL315.07424.1142236+3.95212223510647
91Mavrik Bourque NSH · CNSHCL3PP214.87424.7161935+3.2501231146625
92Ryan Donato CHI · CCHICL116.27830.5181835-11.3501251708220
93Bobby McMann SEA · CSEACL2PP215.87430.3201535+1.250159614826
94William Karlsson VGK · CVGKCL3PP213.76333.7142135+9.0731294642546
95Max Domi TOR · CTORCL2PP215.27731.6112535-13.8701072413632
96Sean Couturier PHI · CPHICL414.67433.8122335-3.2201176137939
97James Hagens BOS · CBOSCL3PP214.365171835+0.08017909936
98Pius Suter STL · CSTLCL314.67630.4171835+8.5521103145132
99Jack Roslovic TOR · CTORCL412.87129.7181635-7.8501291573727
100Fraser Minten BOS · CBOSCL314.37222.2161834+7.23111535812743
101Kent Johnson CBJ · CCBJCL4PP112.97124142034-3.96111521334
102Mikael Backlund CGY · CCGYCL2PP217.27237.5132034+4.7431546443030
103Shane Wright SEA · CSEACL4PP212.57022.7151833+3.180972424953
104Peyton Krebs BUF · CBUFCL314.67925.7102333+6.2108524016836
105Yegor Sharangovich CGY · CCGYCL2PP216.47928.3171632-14.082138722034
106Justin Sourdif WSH · CWSHCL413.56924.5141832+6.220992818735
107Ryan Poehling ANA · CANACL315.67227.7112232+2.423854514280
108Ryan Greene CHI · CCHICL3PP216.47222.9141832-5.1511113044634
109Barrett Hayton UTA · CUTACL3PP214.37026.3141831-0.5801254483533
110Tij Iginla UTA · CUTAC61141731+0.04014709034
111Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · CNYICL314.97233.9121931+0.2258261012051
112Evan Rodrigues NJD · CNJDC7133.2121830-7.0611472687725
113Eetu Luostarinen FLA · CFLACL315.67528.1111930+4.911999313356
114Michael Misa SJS · CSJSCL3PP213.95319.6121830-0.760851922127
115Linus Karlsson VAN · CVANCL1PP215.77026.9131730-9.74099137523
116Noah Ostlund BUF · CBUFCL4PP213.76022.6111829+3.0607486930
117Gage Goncalves TBL · CTBLCL4PP212.76925.7101928+10.9207268027
118Noah Laba NYR · CNYRCL3PP213.57323.2111728+0.8408532910841
119Sam Steel DAL · CDALCL315.27328.7101928+0.721791517028
120Connor Zary CGY · CCGYCL3PP214.67025131528-4.370114804123
121Brady Martin NSH · CNSHC4991928+0.03011509327
122Ross Colton NSH · CNSHCL4PP211.67330.1131528+3.6301408315732
123Jordan Staal CAR · CCARCL3PP215.36638.1131427+4.5218770513339
124Nicolas Roy COL · CCOLCL4PP212.97329.7111727+0.131833777241
125Jake O'Brien SEA · CSEAC5581927+0.0306107930
126Yanni Gourde TBL · CTBLCL2PP216.87334.891827-3.2109636411033
127Justin Hryckowian DAL · CDALCL4PP211.87325.6121526+0.5407716810738
128Marco Kasper DET · CDETCL3PP213.87422.5141226-7.63113522816445
129Phillip Danault MTL · CMTLCL215.17733.681826+3.022995776950
130Jack McBain UTA · CUTACL413.07426.7111526+6.5119329626143
131Tyler Seguin DAL · CDALCL2PP215.94134.7111526+12.450622002811
132Alex Newhook MTL · CMTLCL3PP214.15725.7131325-0.140821746124
133Nate Danielson DET · CDETCL312.15352025+0.0305706929
134Ryan Strome CGY · CCGYCL4PP213.66233.281725-7.440782733220
135Caleb Malhotra VAN · CVANC4991625+0.0304107627
136Cayden Lindstrom CBJ · CCBJC5081725+0.030103010528
137Marat Khusnutdinov BOS · CBOSCL314.17224.2101425+3.01067904539
138Alexander Kerfoot NSH · CNSHCL411.97332.1101524-2.522752455957
139Oliver Moore CHI · CCHICL3PP213.95421.781724-5.360731033018
140Parker Kelly COL · CCOLCL412.37927.4121224+7.5019511616958
141Jake Evans MTL · CMTLCL412.87130.3101424-3.903715009251
142Roger McQueen ANA · CANACL4PP213.055101424+0.05012809730
143Adam Lowry WPG · CWPGCL214.67033.591524+1.7027554214249
144Berkly Catton SEA · CSEACL412.56820.7111324-3.02097731332
145Connor Dewar PIT · CPITCL412.97427.3111323+6.602957614445
146Denver Barkey PHI · CPHICL4PP212.75221.481523-1.9506595424
147Frederick Gaudreau SEA · CSEACL413.76933.491523-1.930763433550
148Brett Howden VGK · CVGKCL412.96428.5121123-1.9207724910431
149Jack Drury NSH · CNSHCL413.57526.791422+6.910934844349
150Cody Glass NJD · CNJDCL412.86727.512921+0.320983954537
151Scott Laughton LAK · CLAKCL313.76932.3101021-7.22210339713545
152Fedor Svechkov COL · CCOLCL312.86923.571320-4.811782185730
153Ryan Winterton SEA · CSEACL313.26323.161319-1.6009207231
154Yakov Trenin MIN · CMINCL312.87829.781219+6.901914233236
155Konsta Helenius BUF · CBUFC4061218+0.0205405422
156Kirby Dach MTL · CMTLCL3PP214.34925.78918-7.24067717435
157Dominic James TBL · CTBLCL411.75224.281018+1.300711697019
158Morgan Barron WPG · CWPGCL411.56827.89918+4.4028919812739
159Vladislav Namestnikov WPG · CWPGCL3PP213.66533.971118-1.640751607739
160Nick Cousins OTT · COTTCL410.97433.271118+4.000761314136
161Blake Lizotte PIT · CPITCL412.96128.871017+3.501552395835
162Kevin Stenlund UTA · CUTACL412.7773071117-5.701705734656
163Hendrix Lapierre PIT · CPITC7024.651217-0.600551154526
164Nic Dowd VGK · CVGKCL412.76636.361117-0.6015744111550
165Alex Turcotte LAK · CLAKCL311.46325.661117-2.100701974932
166Mark Kastelic BOS · CBOSCL412.47727.69817+1.8118830621155
167Teddy Blueger TOR · CTORCL413.75332.161017-7.812663127427
168Jesperi Kotkaniemi CAR · CCARCL411.35826.261116+3.510722256823
169Jason Dickinson EDM · CEDMCL215.26831.27916-8.401744769855
170Charlie Stramel MIN · CMINC357916+0.0207405619
171Luca Del Bel Belluz CBJ · CCBJC3361016+0.0204604018
172Michael Hage MTL · CMTLC3541216+0.0205104819
173Sean Kuraly BOS · CBOSCL413.07533.751116-1.9008931510541
174Michael Rasmussen DET · CDETCL412.56827.57816-6.811751209061
175Aatu Räty VAN · CVANCL412.76423.97916-1.7006844215718
176Dakota Joshua TOR · CTORCL312.96030.48715-2.610551420533
177Benjamin Rautiainen TBL · CTBLC2851015+0.0206403815
178Oskar Sundqvist STL · CSTLCL412.75932.541015-11.220452147234
179Stephen Halliday OTT · COTTC4324.241014+0.02053384516
180Michael Eyssimont BOS · CBOSC6330.17814-0.72011347523
181Rory Kerins CGY · CCGYCL413.7555914+0.0206407330
182Egor Surin NSH · CNSHC326814+0.0207704918
183Cole Reschny CGY · CCGYC3421214+0.0202605019
184Max Sasson VAN · CVANCL412.26526.18614-4.710641193334
185Mason Appleton DET · CDETCL412.16830.76814+0.4017578630
186Alex Steeves BOS · CBOSC4826.87714+2.33161315227
187Colton Dach EDM · CEDMCL3PP212.66223.76813-6.010652521630
188Filip Chytil VAN · CVANCL3PP214.84027.18613-6.920881841513
189Filip Bystedt SJS · CSJSC305813+0.0206404116
190Braeden Cootes VAN · CVANC336713+0.0206304118
191Vinnie Hinostroza COL · CCOLCL311.76232.55813-6.32063194325
192Radek Faksa DAL · CDALCL411.46232.731013+1.002462848544
193Noel Acciari PHI · CPHIC6234.86613+1.600702809163
194Jesper Boqvist NJD · CNJDC7227.95713-5.110664814330
195Steven Lorentz TOR · CTORCL312.87030.55713-0.901655415345
196Colton Sissons TOR · CTORC6932.96612-8.920753759851
197Dean Letourneau BOS · CBOSC297512+0.0106104316
198Zam Plante PIT · CPITC295712+0.0106403516
199Jett Luchanko PHI · CPHIC3321012+0.0102705318
200Viggo Bjorck WPG · CWPGC325712+0.0106404318
201Cole Beaudoin NYR · CNYRC304812+0.0105404316
202Nick Bjugstad NJD · CNJDCL311.77034.26512-5.7119625311736
203Michael McCarron MIN · CMINCL412.47231.65611-10.8018846517064
204Lars Eller FLA · CFLACL410.06437.45711+1.601693244631
205Joakim Kemell NSH · CNSHC324711+0.0103905518
206Cullen Potter CGY · CCGYC265611+0.0105303914
207Calum Ritchie NYI · CNYICL4PP212.8272911+0.0103304515
208Sacha Boisvert CHI · CCHIC292911+0.0102604916
209Casey Cizikas NYI · CNYICL411.37235.65511-4.0017131614452
210Zemgus Girgensons TBL · CTBLCL314.27232.75610-1.100788617042
211Ben Meyers SEA · CSEACL313.15427.95510-6.300591846716
212Josh Samanski EDM · CEDMCL410.45524.53710+0.0103008830
213Colin Blackwell DAL · CDALCL411.56433.54710-0.801581169330
214Jiri Kulich BUF · CBUFC3222.56410-2.010721492321
215Nikita Nesterenko ANA · CANACL314.04025.13710-1.30047127514
216Zakhar Bardakov COL · CCOLCL47.46425.63710+2.10044785526
217Oskar Bäck DAL · CDALCL313.27226.6469+4.10144463036
218Trent Frederic EDM · CEDMCL410.77328.6549-9.210829418628
219Igor Chernyshov SJS · CSJSCL3PP214.923459+0.0102503713
220Charlie Cerrato CAR · CCARC24279+0.0102603813
221Amadeus Lombardi NJD · CNJDC22369+0.0103803112
222Matvei Korotky STL · CSTLC24549+0.0104303113
223William Horcoff PIT · CPITC23639+0.0105204413
224Bill Zonnon PIT · CPITC24369+0.0101903113
225Jack Nesbitt PHI · CPHIC27459+0.0104204715
226Sam Carrick BUF · CBUFCL311.96834.7459+0.6016529310532
227Eduard Sale SEA · CSEAC27448+0.0102303515
228Brayden Yager WPG · CWPGC27358+0.0102403415
229Quentin Musty SJS · CSJSC22448+0.0103303412
230Nico Sturm MIN · CMINCL311.95931.4448-3.201502727627
231Ty Dellandrea SJS · CSJSCL413.05626.2268-14.3015525914039
232Maddox Dagenais STL · CSTLC21347+0.0103703012
233Dylan Duke TBL · CTBLC20437+0.0102302911
234Sam O'Reilly TBL · CTBLC22347+0.0102803012
235Jani Nyman SEA · CSEAC20437+0.0103403211
236Sandis Vilmanis FLA · CFLAC19347+0.0101902710
237Conor Geekie TBL · CTBLC3422.4347-1.61046606916
238Tanner Laczynski VGK · CVGKC3029.3257-0.41031951214
239Joe Veleno NYR · CNYRC6626.7336-11.2006018815335
240Ilia Morozov BUF · CBUFC18246+0.0102602810
241Tynan Lawrence STL · CSTLC18246+0.0102602210
242Kai Uchacz VGK · CVGKC18246+0.0101802810
243Ben Hemmerling VGK · CVGKC17336+0.010160229
244Isac Lundeström CBJ · CCBJC6026.9246-3.200471913437
245Mattias Janmark EDM · CEDMCL411.75533.8146-5.10134312219
246Barclay Goodrow SJS · CSJSC7733.6336-17.100617113557
247Marc Gatcomb VGK · CVGKC5527.2326-1.60062320828
248Martin Pospisil CGY · CCGYCL311.84226.9145-0.510533215614
249Tim Washe ANA · CANACL412.64625.1335-1.8004826310327
250Samuel Helenius LAK · CLAKC5823.8325-2.1004413215921
251Oliver Suvanto WSH · CWSHC18145+0.0101302410
252Zach Dean STL · CSTLC20145+0.0101303111
253Otto Stenberg STL · CSTLCL413.117145+0.010120229
254Brad Lambert WPG · CWPGCL410.520235+0.0102202911
255Anton Wahlberg ANA · CANAC17145+0.010160239
256Nathan Gaucher ANA · CANAC20325+0.0101803111
257David Edstrom NSH · CNSHC17235+0.010120249
258Tyson Kozak BUF · CBUFCL411.45223.8235-0.6003920612339
259Kyle MacLean NYI · CNYIC6327.4234-4.4004711111324
260Ozzy Wiesblatt NSH · CNSHCL311.94724.6134-1.70036211422
261Mason West CHI · CCHIC14224+0.000260198
262Hunter Haight MIN · CMINC13224+0.000150187
263John Beecher FLA · CFLAC4925.5224-4.101421574841
264Jack Finley STL · CSTLC4924.1224+0.700352248215
265Curtis Douglas SEA · CSEAC5226.6123-1.0003977619
266Bo Groulx TOR · CTORC3226.7223+1.901331267817
267Jansen Harkins TBL · CTBLC5329.4123-5.7004210012329
268Chaz Lucius WPG · CWPGC12123+0.000130167
269Tyson Gross CGY · CCGYC14123+0.000110228
270Zack Ostapchuk SJS · CSJSC6023.3223-5.3004621613428
271Luke Haymes TOR · CTORC12213+0.000110167
272Raphael Lavoie VGK · CVGKC17213+0.000360229
273Sean Farrell ANA · CANAC9123+0.000130125
274Jack Hextall CGY · CCGYC9123+0.000130135
275Adam Edstrom NSH · CNSHC4626213-0.2004068528
276Ben Jones CGY · CCGYC4027.6112-3.80041828017
277Owen Beck MTL · CMTLC3122.7112+1.01034835017
278Sam Lafferty FLA · CFLAC4931.6112-4.40031677413
279Liam O'Brien UTA · CUTAC4932.2112-3.00045615119
280Matt Rempe NYR · CNYRCL48.74024.3112-0.50029412113
281Tristan Broz PIT · CPITC7011+0.00080114
282Jacob Gaucher PHI · CPHIC3000+0.0002042
283Riley Fiddler-Schultz BUF · CBUFC3000+0.0004042