Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
1	Gavin McKenna★	F	NCAA	18.7	TOR	26′ #1	1.46	49	100%	0.9y @19.6	5380113	77.8
2	Caleb Malhotra★	F	OHL	18.2	VAN*	26′ #3	1.25	30.8	97%	1.5y @19.7	4562105	65.6
3	Caleb Desnoyers★	F	LHJMQ	19.4	UTA	25′ #4	1.73	39.8	90%	0.7y @20.1	427095	62.5
4	Jake O'Brien★	F	OHL	19.2	SEA*	25′ #8	1.75	43.2	90%	1y @20.2	417095	62.5
5	James Hagens★	F	NCAA	19.8	BOS	25′ #7	1.38	46.5	88%	1.2y @21	416297	60
6	Nikita Klepov★	F	OHL	18.1	ANA	26′ #15	1.45	35.6	93%	2.1y @20.2	435794	59
7	Porter Martone★	F	NCAA	19.8	PHI	25′ #6	1.43	48	85%	1.4y @21.2	356297	58.3
8	Tij Iginla★	F	WHL	20	UTA	24′ #6	1.88	46.1	90%	1.4y @21.4	354997	56.7
9	Liam Ruck★	F	WHL	18.5	PIT*	26′ #22	1.53	37.6	88%	2y @20.5	345791	56.7
10	Markus Ruck★	F	WHL	18.5	PIT*	26′ #39	1.59	39.1	85%	2.1y @20.6	345791	54.7
11	Adam Novotny★	F	OHL	18.8	VAN	26′ #24	1.12	27.6	88%	2.4y @21.2	314687	48.3
12	Matias Vanhanen★	F	WHL	18.9	NJD*	26′ #37	1.4	34.5	75%	1.9y @20.8	244890	47.8
13	Daxon Rudolph★	D	WHL	18.5	BUF*	26′ #4	1.15	28.2	85%	1.6y @20.1	254979	46.4
14	Brady Martin★	F	OHL	19.4	NSH	25′ #5	1	24.6	78%	1.4y @20.8	294383	46.1
15	Braeden Cootes★	F	WHL	19.5	VAN*	25′ #15	1.39	34.1	70%	1.5y @21	294285	45.8
16	Ethan Belchetz★	F	OHL	18.4	UTA*	26′ #17	1.04	25.5	82%	2.8y @21.2	294687	45.6
17	Maddox Dagenais★	F	LHJMQ	18.4	STL*	26′ #16	1	23	82%	2.8y @21.2	294587	45.4
18	Ryan Roobroeck★	F	OHL	18.9	CHI*	26′ #35	1.18	29.1	80%	2.1y @21	244285	45
19	Carter Bear★	F	WHL	19.8	DET	25′ #13	1.45	35.7	75%	1.5y @21.3	304181	44.8
20	Egor Shilov★	F	LHJMQ	18.3	COL*	26′ #43	1.3	29.9	78%	3.1y @21.4	244687	44.5
21	Chase Reid★	D	OHL	18.6	SEA*	26′ #7	1.07	26.2	82%	1.6y @20.2	224376	42.5
22	Cole Reschny★	F	NCAA	19.4	CGY	25′ #18	0.97	32.7	72%	2.4y @21.8	233979	41.8
23	Carson Carels★	D	WHL	18.2	CGY*	26′ #6	1.26	31	75%	1.8y @20	164477	41.5
24	Jack Nesbitt	F	OHL	19.6	PHI	25′ #12	1.05	25.9	72%	2.2y @21.8	273971	41
25	Justin Carbonneau	F	LHJMQ	19.7	STL*	25′ #19	1.33	30.6	72%	2.4y @22.1	233565	38.2
26	Jackson Smith★	D	NCAA	19.3	CBJ	25′ #14	0.74	25	78%	1.8y @21.1	153673	38.1
27	Brooks Rogowski★	F	OHL	18.2	VAN*	26′ #33	0.91	22.5	72%	3.6y @21.8	193583	38
28	Keaton Verhoeff★	D	NCAA	18.2	SJS	26′ #9	0.56	18.7	68%	1.7y @19.9	154377	37.9
29	Ilia Morozov★	F	NCAA	18	BUF	26′ #20	0.56	18.7	72%	3.4y @21.4	04383	37.8
30	Cameron Reid	F	OHL	19.4	NSH*	25′ #21	0.98	24.2	70%	2.6y @22	193573	37.6
31	Radim Mrtka★	D	WHL	19.2	BUF	25′ #9	0.79	19.5	78%	1.4y @20.6	153372	37.6
32	Roger McQueen	F	NCAA	19.9	ANA	25′ #10	0.75	25.2	65%	2.2y @22.1	203571	37.3
33	William Horcoff	F	NCAA	19.6	PIT	25′ #24	0.97	32.8	68%	2.4y @22	163571	36.1
34	Vaclav Nestrasil	F	NCAA	19.4	CHI	25′ #25	0.91	30.7	65%	2.6y @22	193571	35.8
35	Jett Luchanko	F	OHL	20	PHI	24′ #13	1.22	30.1	65%	2.4y @22.4	203465	35.5
37	Cullen Potter	F	NCAA	19.6	CGY	25′ #32	1.08	36.4	62%	2y @21.6	193473	35.3
38	Mathis Preston★	F	WHL	18.1	ANA*	26′ #50	0.93	22.8	65%	3.7y @21.8	03383	35.2
39	Maddox Schultz★	F	WHL	16.4	—	—	0.85	21	62%	5.4y @21.8	03383	35.1
40	Ryan Lin★	D	WHL	18.3	SJS*	26′ #21	1.08	26.5	68%	1.7y @20	153366	35
44	Oleg Kulebiakin★	F	LHJMQ	18.6	TBL*	26′ #52	1.14	26.2	65%	3.2y @21.8	03468	34.1
48	Michael Hage	F	NCAA	20.4	MTL	24′ #21	1.33	44.8	65%	2.3y @22.7	163081	33.8
49	Jaxon Cover	F	OHL	18.5	OTT*	26′ #32	0.78	19.1	65%	3.3y @21.8	03468	33.7
50	Ryder Cali★	F	OHL	18	FLA*	26′ #48	0.77	18.8	60%	3.8y @21.8	03283	33.7
51	Bill Zonnon	F	LHJMQ	19.9	PIT*	25′ #22	1.31	30.2	62%	2.5y @22.4	193562	33.7
52	Chase Harrington	F	WHL	18.8	CGY*	26′ #36	0.93	23	68%	3y @21.8	03473	33.5
55	Adam Jiricek	D	OHL	20.1	STL	24′ #16	1.07	26.4	75%	2.3y @22.4	172965	33.1
56	Jaxon Jacobson★	F	WHL	17.7	—	—	1.35	33.2	62%	4.1y @21.8	03274	33.1
57	Ethan Wyttenbach★	F	NCAA	19.5	CGY	25′ #144	1.48	49.6	55%	2.6y @22.1	03077	33
58	Pierce Mbuyi	F	OHL	18.3	PIT*	26′ #86	1.1	27.1	65%	3.6y @21.9	03368	32.9
59	Alan Shaikhlislamov★	F	MHL	18	CGY*	26′ #55	1.13	16.7	60%	3.8y @21.8	03283	32.6
60	Cole Beaudoin	F	OHL	20.3	UTA*	24′ #24	1.65	40.5	62%	2.5y @22.8	122983	32.5
61	Enzo DiDomenicantonio★	F	WHL	16.8	—	—	0.27	6.7	55%	5y @21.8	03288	32.5
66	Xavier Villeneuve	D	LHJMQ	18.9	CHI*	26′ #34	1.03	23.6	68%	2.2y @21.1	152964	32.1
67	Jayden Pominville★	F	LHJMQ	16.8	—	—	0.57	13.1	57%	5y @21.8	03183	32.1
69	Liam Pue★	F	WHL	16.5	—	—	0.47	11.6	57%	5.3y @21.8	03183	32
70	Tyler Cooper★	F	OHL	16.7	—	—	0.37	9	57%	5.1y @21.8	03283	31.9
71	Beckett Hamilton	F	WHL	18.4	COL*	26′ #74	0.93	22.8	60%	3.5y @21.9	03183	31.8
73	Jack Hextall	F	USHL	18.4	CGY	26′ #30	0.98	19.3	62%	3.4y @21.8	03168	31.6
75	Max Plante	F	NCAA	20.5	DET	24′ #47	1.3	43.7	60%	2.3y @22.8	03078	31.5
76	Kashawn Aitcheson	D	OHL	19.9	NYI*	25′ #17	1.25	30.8	75%	2.3y @22.2	142965	31.4
77	Brock England★	F	WHL	17	—	—	0.8	19.6	57%	4.8y @21.8	03168	31.4
78	Olivier Charron★	F	LHJMQ	16.9	—	—	0.54	12.3	55%	4.9y @21.8	03183	31.4
79	Alexis Joseph★	F	LHJMQ	17.2	—	—	1.11	25.5	60%	4.6y @21.8	03168	31.2
80	Benjamin Veitch★	F	LHJMQ	16.9	—	—	0.36	8.3	55%	4.9y @21.8	03283	31.1
81	Adam Valentini	F	NCAA	18.4	UTA*	26′ #96	0.68	22.7	57%	3.5y @21.9	03083	31.1
83	Adam Benak	F	OHL	19.4	MIN*	25′ #102	1.6	39.5	55%	2.7y @22.1	02973	31
84	Ryerson Edgar★	F	OHL	17.1	—	—	0.77	18.8	57%	4.7y @21.8	03168	30.9
85	JP Hurlbert★	F	WHL	18.4	—	—	1.43	35.1	55%	3.4y @21.8	02974	30.9
87	Cam Warren	F	OHL	17.3	—	—	0.5	12.3	53%	4.5y @21.8	03088	30.8
88	Eamon Edgar★	F	OHL	16.8	—	—	0.33	8	53%	5y @21.8	03083	30.6
89	Ryan Hanrahan★	F	OHL	16.8	—	—	0.26	6.4	53%	5y @21.8	03083	30.6
90	Grayden Peterson★	F	WHL	17	—	—	0.14	3.5	50%	4.8y @21.8	03088	30.6
93	Ben Harvey	F	WHL	17	—	—	0.6	14.8	55%	4.8y @21.8	03083	30.4
95	Thomas Vandenberg	F	OHL	17.9	LAK*	26′ #103	0.85	20.8	57%	3.9y @21.8	03068	30.1
96	Lynden Lakovic	F	WHL	19.7	WSH*	25′ #27	1.32	32.4	57%	2.4y @22.1	143061	30.1
103	Dimian Zhilkin	F	OHL	17.8	—	—	1.27	31.3	57%	4y @21.8	03068	29.4
104	Chase Surkan	F	WHL	17.4	—	—	0.84	20.8	55%	4.4y @21.8	03068	29.4
105	Gleb Pugachyov	F	MHL	18.4	MTL	26′ #26	0.73	10.7	57%	3.4y @21.8	03068	29.4
106	Blake Zielinski	F	USHL	18.5	LAK*	26′ #80	1.04	20.4	55%	3.4y @21.9	02983	29.4
108	Shaeffer Gordon-Carroll	F	WHL	17.7	—	—	0.9	22.2	55%	4.1y @21.8	02968	29.2
109	Victor Plante	F	USHL	18.4	DET*	26′ #47	0.9	17.7	57%	3.5y @21.9	02962	29.2
110	Jonah Sivertson	F	WHL	18	VGK*	26′ #113	0.8	19.8	55%	3.9y @21.9	02958	29
111	Sawyer Schmidt	F	OHL	16.6	—	—	0.08	2	53%	5.2y @21.8	03068	28.9
112	Brenner Lammens	F	OHL	16.9	—	—	0.31	7.5	53%	4.9y @21.8	03068	28.9
113	Jake Evans	F	WHL	16.9	MTL*	14′ #207	0.12	3	50%	5y @21.9	02483	28.9
114	Brock Burch	F	WHL	16.6	—	—	0.12	3	53%	5.2y @21.8	03068	28.9
115	Ryker Lee	F	NCAA	19.8	NSH	25′ #26	0.86	28.8	55%	2.5y @22.3	153061	28.9
118	Jax Pereira	F	OHL	17.3	—	—	0.27	6.7	53%	4.6y @21.9	03083	28.7
119	Tyden Lafournaise	F	WHL	17.4	—	—	0.3	7.3	53%	4.5y @21.9	03083	28.7
120	Brooks DeMars	F	WHL	17.2	—	—	0.26	6.4	53%	4.7y @21.9	03083	28.7
121	Antoine Provencher	F	LHJMQ	17.1	—	—	0.29	6.8	53%	4.8y @21.9	03083	28.7
122	Frédéric Bergeron	F	LHJMQ	17.3	—	—	0.31	7.1	53%	4.6y @21.9	03083	28.7
123	Casey Mutryn	F	USHL	18.1	SEA*	26′ #38	0.64	12.6	55%	3.7y @21.8	02968	28.7
124	Landon DuPont	D	WHL	17.2	—	—	1.16	28.5	60%	3.5y @20.7	02462	28.6
126	Louis Felix Bourque	F	LHJMQ	18.1	OTT*	26′ #91	0.91	20.8	55%	3.8y @21.9	02968	28.6
129	Aleks Kulemin	F	OHL	17.4	—	—	0.54	13.4	50%	4.5y @21.9	02483	28.5
130	Noah Laus	F	OHL	17.5	—	—	0.43	10.5	50%	4.4y @21.9	02483	28.5
131	Prabh Bhathal	F	WHL	17.3	—	—	0.49	12.1	50%	4.6y @21.9	02483	28.5
132	Calder Hamilton	F	WHL	17.5	—	—	0.53	13	50%	4.4y @21.9	02483	28.5
133	Kayden Stroeder	F	WHL	17.5	—	—	0.58	14.3	50%	4.4y @21.9	02483	28.5

Who each prospect looks like

1. Gavin McKenna100% NHL · 0.9y

Sam Reinhart 14′#2	94 pk	839 GP
Nail Yakupov 12′#1	53 pk	350 GP
Connor McDavid 15′#1	154 pk	794 GP
Leon Draisaitl 14′#3	131 pk	855 GP
Nico Hischier 17′#1	81 pk	609 GP

2. Caleb Malhotra97% NHL · 1.5y

Clayton Keller 16′#7	91 pk	683 GP
Sam Bennett 14′#4	63 pk	767 GP
Alex Nylander 16′#8	53 pk	126 GP
Jesperi Kotkaniemi 18′#3	43 pk	518 GP
Patrik Laine 16′#2	82 pk	537 GP

3. Caleb Desnoyers90% NHL · 0.7y

Barrett Hayton 18′#5	46 pk	358 GP
Mitch Marner 15′#4	110 pk	738 GP
Bo Horvat 13′#9	90 pk	881 GP
Leon Draisaitl 14′#3	131 pk	855 GP
William Nylander 14′#8	100 pk	750 GP

4. Jake O'Brien90% NHL · 1y

Barrett Hayton 18′#5	46 pk	358 GP
Gabriel Vilardi 17′#11	70 pk	352 GP
Robert Thomas 17′#20	95 pk	530 GP
Mathew Barzal 15′#16	85 pk	611 GP
Mitch Marner 15′#4	110 pk	738 GP

5. James Hagens88% NHL · 1.2y

Timo Meier 15′#9	81 pk	698 GP
Robby Fabbri 14′#21	49 pk	463 GP
Mitch Marner 15′#4	110 pk	738 GP
Luke Kunin 16′#15	41 pk	496 GP
Barrett Hayton 18′#5	46 pk	358 GP

6. Nikita Klepov93% NHL · 2.1y

Clayton Keller 16′#7	91 pk	683 GP
Alex Nylander 16′#8	53 pk	126 GP
Mikhail Grigorenko 12′#12	31 pk	249 GP
Joel Farabee 18′#14	57 pk	497 GP
Curtis Lazar 13′#17	29 pk	617 GP

7. Porter Martone85% NHL · 1.4y

Timo Meier 15′#9	81 pk	698 GP
Mitch Marner 15′#4	110 pk	738 GP
Robby Fabbri 14′#21	49 pk	463 GP
Nick Suzuki 17′#13	101 pk	537 GP
Luke Kunin 16′#15	41 pk	496 GP

8. Tij Iginla90% NHL · 1.4y

Timo Meier 15′#9	81 pk	698 GP
Nick Suzuki 17′#13	101 pk	537 GP
Max Domi 13′#12	72 pk	815 GP
Ty Dellandrea 18′#13	28 pk	265 GP
Cody Glass 17′#6	40 pk	322 GP

9. Liam Ruck88% NHL · 2y

Joel Farabee 18′#14	57 pk	497 GP
Andre Burakovsky 13′#23	68 pk	771 GP
Curtis Lazar 13′#17	29 pk	617 GP
Nikolay Goldobin 14′#27	35 pk	125 GP
Mikhail Grigorenko 12′#12	31 pk	249 GP

10. Markus Ruck85% NHL · 2.1y

Nikolay Goldobin 14′#27	35 pk	125 GP
Mason Shaw 17′#97	never stuck	82 GP
Daniel Sprong 15′#46	57 pk	374 GP
Andre Burakovsky 13′#23	68 pk	771 GP
Brock Boeser 15′#23	74 pk	629 GP

11. Adam Novotny88% NHL · 2.4y

Liam Foudy 18′#18	19 pk	105 GP
Curtis Lazar 13′#17	29 pk	617 GP
Hunter Shinkaruk 13′#24	never stuck	15 GP
Joel Farabee 18′#14	57 pk	497 GP
Jaret Anderson-Dolan 17′#41	27 pk	134 GP

12. Matias Vanhanen75% NHL · 1.9y

Nikolay Goldobin 14′#27	35 pk	125 GP
Jaret Anderson-Dolan 17′#41	27 pk	134 GP
Hunter Shinkaruk 13′#24	never stuck	15 GP
Mason Shaw 17′#97	never stuck	82 GP
Kailer Yamamoto 17′#22	79 pk	374 GP