Prospect Rankings
Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.
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How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.
Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.
| # | Player | Pos | League | Age | Org | Draft | P/GP | NHLe | P(NHL) | ETA | Upside band | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Tij Iginla★ | F | WHL | 20 | UTA | 24′ #6 | 1.88 | 46.1 | 90% | 1.4y @21.4 | 354997 | 56.7 |
| 9 | Liam Ruck★ | F | WHL | 18.5 | PIT* | 26′ #22 | 1.53 | 37.6 | 88% | 2y @20.5 | 345791 | 56.7 |
| 10 | Markus Ruck★ | F | WHL | 18.5 | PIT* | 26′ #39 | 1.59 | 39.1 | 85% | 2.1y @20.6 | 345791 | 54.7 |
| 12 | Matias Vanhanen★ | F | WHL | 18.9 | NJD* | 26′ #37 | 1.4 | 34.5 | 75% | 1.9y @20.8 | 244890 | 47.8 |
| 13 | Daxon Rudolph★ | D | WHL | 18.5 | BUF* | 26′ #4 | 1.15 | 28.2 | 85% | 1.6y @20.1 | 254979 | 46.4 |
| 15 | Braeden Cootes★ | F | WHL | 19.5 | VAN* | 25′ #15 | 1.39 | 34.1 | 70% | 1.5y @21 | 294285 | 45.8 |
| 19 | Carter Bear★ | F | WHL | 19.8 | DET | 25′ #13 | 1.45 | 35.7 | 75% | 1.5y @21.3 | 304181 | 44.8 |
| 23 | Carson Carels★ | D | WHL | 18.2 | CGY* | 26′ #6 | 1.26 | 31 | 75% | 1.8y @20 | 164477 | 41.5 |
| 31 | Radim Mrtka★ | D | WHL | 19.2 | BUF | 25′ #9 | 0.79 | 19.5 | 78% | 1.4y @20.6 | 153372 | 37.6 |
| 38 | Mathis Preston★ | F | WHL | 18.1 | ANA* | 26′ #50 | 0.93 | 22.8 | 65% | 3.7y @21.8 | 03383 | 35.2 |
| 39 | Maddox Schultz★ | F | WHL | 16.4 | — | — | 0.85 | 21 | 62% | 5.4y @21.8 | 03383 | 35.1 |
| 40 | Ryan Lin★ | D | WHL | 18.3 | SJS* | 26′ #21 | 1.08 | 26.5 | 68% | 1.7y @20 | 153366 | 35 |
| 52 | Chase Harrington | F | WHL | 18.8 | CGY* | 26′ #36 | 0.93 | 23 | 68% | 3y @21.8 | 03473 | 33.5 |
| 56 | Jaxon Jacobson★ | F | WHL | 17.7 | — | — | 1.35 | 33.2 | 62% | 4.1y @21.8 | 03274 | 33.1 |
| 61 | Enzo DiDomenicantonio★ | F | WHL | 16.8 | — | — | 0.27 | 6.7 | 55% | 5y @21.8 | 03288 | 32.5 |
| 69 | Liam Pue★ | F | WHL | 16.5 | — | — | 0.47 | 11.6 | 57% | 5.3y @21.8 | 03183 | 32 |
| 71 | Beckett Hamilton | F | WHL | 18.4 | COL* | 26′ #74 | 0.93 | 22.8 | 60% | 3.5y @21.9 | 03183 | 31.8 |
| 77 | Brock England★ | F | WHL | 17 | — | — | 0.8 | 19.6 | 57% | 4.8y @21.8 | 03168 | 31.4 |
| 85 | JP Hurlbert★ | F | WHL | 18.4 | — | — | 1.43 | 35.1 | 55% | 3.4y @21.8 | 02974 | 30.9 |
| 90 | Grayden Peterson★ | F | WHL | 17 | — | — | 0.14 | 3.5 | 50% | 4.8y @21.8 | 03088 | 30.6 |
| 93 | Ben Harvey | F | WHL | 17 | — | — | 0.6 | 14.8 | 55% | 4.8y @21.8 | 03083 | 30.4 |
| 96 | Lynden Lakovic | F | WHL | 19.7 | WSH* | 25′ #27 | 1.32 | 32.4 | 57% | 2.4y @22.1 | 143061 | 30.1 |
| 104 | Chase Surkan | F | WHL | 17.4 | — | — | 0.84 | 20.8 | 55% | 4.4y @21.8 | 03068 | 29.4 |
| 108 | Shaeffer Gordon-Carroll | F | WHL | 17.7 | — | — | 0.9 | 22.2 | 55% | 4.1y @21.8 | 02968 | 29.2 |
| 110 | Jonah Sivertson | F | WHL | 18 | VGK* | 26′ #113 | 0.8 | 19.8 | 55% | 3.9y @21.9 | 02958 | 29 |
| 113 | Jake Evans | F | WHL | 16.9 | MTL* | 14′ #207 | 0.12 | 3 | 50% | 5y @21.9 | 02483 | 28.9 |
| 114 | Brock Burch | F | WHL | 16.6 | — | — | 0.12 | 3 | 53% | 5.2y @21.8 | 03068 | 28.9 |
| 119 | Tyden Lafournaise | F | WHL | 17.4 | — | — | 0.3 | 7.3 | 53% | 4.5y @21.9 | 03083 | 28.7 |
| 120 | Brooks DeMars | F | WHL | 17.2 | — | — | 0.26 | 6.4 | 53% | 4.7y @21.9 | 03083 | 28.7 |
| 124 | Landon DuPont | D | WHL | 17.2 | — | — | 1.16 | 28.5 | 60% | 3.5y @20.7 | 02462 | 28.6 |
| 131 | Prabh Bhathal | F | WHL | 17.3 | — | — | 0.49 | 12.1 | 50% | 4.6y @21.9 | 02483 | 28.5 |
| 132 | Calder Hamilton | F | WHL | 17.5 | — | — | 0.53 | 13 | 50% | 4.4y @21.9 | 02483 | 28.5 |
| 133 | Kayden Stroeder | F | WHL | 17.5 | — | — | 0.58 | 14.3 | 50% | 4.4y @21.9 | 02483 | 28.5 |
| 134 | Connor Howe | F | WHL | 17.1 | — | — | 0.32 | 7.9 | 50% | 4.8y @21.9 | 02483 | 28.5 |
| 135 | Carter Moen | F | WHL | 17.5 | — | — | 0.38 | 9.3 | 50% | 4.4y @21.9 | 02483 | 28.5 |
| 136 | Crew Martinson | F | WHL | 17.3 | — | — | 0.53 | 13.2 | 50% | 4.6y @21.9 | 02483 | 28.5 |
| 137 | Blake Chorney | F | WHL | 17.3 | — | — | 0.31 | 7.7 | 50% | 4.6y @21.9 | 02483 | 28.5 |
| 138 | Ludovic Perreault | F | WHL | 17.4 | — | — | 0.53 | 13 | 50% | 4.5y @21.9 | 02483 | 28.5 |
| 141 | Finn Spehar | F | WHL | 17.4 | — | — | 0.21 | 5.2 | 50% | 4.5y @21.9 | 03083 | 28.2 |
| 142 | Alessandro Domenichelli | F | WHL | 17.3 | — | — | 0.18 | 4.5 | 50% | 4.6y @21.9 | 03083 | 28.2 |
| 144 | Shaun Hildebrandt | F | WHL | 17.2 | — | — | 0.17 | 4.3 | 50% | 4.7y @21.9 | 03083 | 28.2 |
| 145 | Aiden Wagner | F | WHL | 17.3 | — | — | 0.22 | 5.4 | 50% | 4.6y @21.9 | 03083 | 28.2 |
| 146 | Marcus Laraque | F | WHL | 17.4 | — | — | 0.19 | 4.6 | 50% | 4.5y @21.9 | 03083 | 28.2 |
| 152 | Joe Iginla | F | WHL | 18 | CGY* | 26′ #65 | 0.54 | 13.3 | 53% | 3.8y @21.8 | 02968 | 28.1 |
| 165 | Zachary Lansard | F | WHL | 18.1 | CAR* | 26′ #68 | 0.82 | 20.3 | 53% | 3.7y @21.8 | 02768 | 27.5 |
| 171 | Ossie McIntyre | F | WHL | 17.4 | — | — | 0.25 | 6.1 | 47% | 4.5y @21.9 | 02483 | 27.4 |
| 172 | Eli McKamey | F | WHL | 17.6 | — | — | 0.35 | 8.7 | 47% | 4.3y @21.9 | 02483 | 27.4 |
| 180 | Noah Davidson | F | WHL | 17.8 | — | — | 0.78 | 19.1 | 53% | 4.1y @21.9 | 02758 | 27.2 |
| 194 | Cole Hajt | F | WHL | 17.6 | — | — | 0.12 | 3.1 | 47% | 4.3y @21.9 | 0483 | 26.8 |
| 195 | Mathis Paull | F | WHL | 17.6 | — | — | 0.24 | 5.8 | 47% | 4.3y @21.9 | 0483 | 26.8 |
| 196 | Ben Bowtell | F | WHL | 17.7 | — | — | 0.19 | 4.6 | 47% | 4.2y @21.9 | 0483 | 26.8 |
| 197 | Gavin Burcar | F | WHL | 17.6 | — | — | 0.27 | 6.6 | 47% | 4.3y @21.9 | 0483 | 26.8 |
| 198 | Alexander Laing | F | WHL | 17.6 | — | — | 0.17 | 4.1 | 47% | 4.3y @21.9 | 0483 | 26.8 |
| 208 | Jacob Schwartz | F | WHL | 17.2 | — | — | 0.1 | 2.5 | 50% | 4.7y @21.9 | 01958 | 26.5 |
| 216 | Asher Gingras | F | WHL | 17.4 | — | — | 0.11 | 2.7 | 47% | 4.5y @21.9 | 0458 | 26 |
| 220 | Zach Olsen | F | WHL | 18.4 | TOR* | 26′ #73 | 0.6 | 14.7 | 47% | 3.6y @22 | 0383 | 25.8 |
| 230 | Cohen Klassen | F | WHL | 17.9 | — | — | 0.6 | 14.7 | 47% | 4.1y @22 | 01958 | 25.2 |
| 231 | Cruz Pavao | F | WHL | 18 | — | — | 0.67 | 16.5 | 47% | 4y @22 | 01958 | 25.2 |
| 233 | Noah Kosick | F | WHL | 18 | ANA* | 26′ #192 | 0.83 | 20.4 | 47% | 4y @22 | 01958 | 25.1 |
| 236 | Terik Parascak | F | WHL | 20.2 | WSH | 24′ #17 | 1.3 | 31.9 | 53% | 2.6y @22.8 | 02355 | 25 |
| 244 | Ty Meunier | F | WHL | 18 | — | — | 0.51 | 12.4 | 45% | 4y @22 | 0058 | 24.7 |
| 245 | Stepan Kuryachenkov | F | WHL | 18.1 | — | — | 0.6 | 14.7 | 45% | 3.9y @22 | 0058 | 24.7 |
| 246 | Sawyer Dingman | F | WHL | 17.9 | — | — | 0.43 | 10.5 | 45% | 4.1y @22 | 0058 | 24.7 |
| 252 | Luke Wilfley | F | WHL | 18.1 | NJD* | 26′ #172 | 0.23 | 5.6 | 45% | 3.9y @22 | 0058 | 24.5 |
| 253 | Triston Mitchell-McElhone | F | WHL | 17.9 | — | — | 0.09 | 2.1 | 45% | 4.1y @22 | 0058 | 24.5 |
| 258 | Cage Smith | F | WHL | 17.7 | — | — | 0.24 | 5.8 | 45% | 4.3y @22 | 0058 | 24.2 |
| 259 | Grady Pichette | F | WHL | 17.6 | — | — | 0.24 | 5.8 | 45% | 4.4y @22 | 0058 | 24.2 |
| 261 | Rylan Ng | F | WHL | 17.9 | — | — | 0.32 | 7.9 | 45% | 4.1y @22 | 0058 | 24.1 |
| 262 | Kohen Lodge | F | WHL | 17.9 | — | — | 0.26 | 6.3 | 45% | 4.1y @22 | 0058 | 24.1 |
| 263 | Colton Gerrior | F | WHL | 17.9 | — | — | 0.34 | 8.4 | 45% | 4.1y @22 | 0058 | 24.1 |
| 264 | Grady Wedman | F | WHL | 17.9 | — | — | 0.34 | 8.5 | 45% | 4.1y @22 | 0058 | 24.1 |
| 268 | Jordan Duguay | F | WHL | 18.5 | — | — | 0.96 | 23.5 | 50% | 4.3y @22.8 | 02456 | 24 |
| 276 | Mirco Dufour | F | WHL | 17.6 | — | — | 0.33 | 8 | 42% | 4.5y @22.1 | 0058 | 23.6 |
| 277 | Jacob Dumansky | F | WHL | 17.6 | — | — | 0.25 | 6.3 | 42% | 4.5y @22.1 | 0058 | 23.6 |
| 284 | Maxmilian Curran | F | WHL | 20 | COL* | 24′ #161 | 1.32 | 32.5 | 45% | 3.3y @23.3 | 01059 | 23.2 |
| 286 | Logan Lanti | F | WHL | 18.1 | — | — | 0.08 | 2 | 42% | 4y @22.1 | 0058 | 23.1 |
| 292 | Tyus Sparks | F | WHL | 18.6 | WSH* | 26′ #101 | 0.94 | 23 | 47% | 3.7y @22.3 | 01956 | 22.9 |
| 297 | Colt Carter | D | WHL | 17.1 | — | — | 0.62 | 15.3 | 53% | 5y @22.1 | 02053 | 22.8 |
| 298 | Brock Cripps | D | WHL | 17.1 | — | — | 0.6 | 14.7 | 53% | 5y @22.1 | 02053 | 22.8 |
| 299 | Boston Tait | D | WHL | 17.4 | — | — | 0.37 | 9.1 | 53% | 4.7y @22.1 | 02053 | 22.8 |
| 303 | Ty Bonkowski | F | WHL | 18.1 | — | — | 0.62 | 15.4 | 42% | 4y @22.1 | 0057 | 22.6 |
| 310 | Jaxon Pisani | D | WHL | 17.4 | — | — | 0.1 | 2.6 | 50% | 4.9y @22.3 | 02053 | 22.4 |
| 311 | Cohen Williams | D | WHL | 17.1 | — | — | 0.15 | 3.7 | 50% | 5.2y @22.3 | 02053 | 22.4 |
| 312 | Grayson Tash | D | WHL | 17.4 | — | — | 0.18 | 4.4 | 50% | 4.9y @22.3 | 02053 | 22.4 |
| 320 | Andrei Molgachev | F | WHL | 18.5 | — | — | 0.97 | 23.8 | 47% | 3.9y @22.4 | 01956 | 22.3 |
| 325 | Shea Rollason | F | WHL | 17.8 | — | — | 0.09 | 2.1 | 42% | 4.3y @22.1 | 0057 | 22 |
| 326 | Harry Mattern | D | WHL | 17 | — | — | 0.08 | 2 | 50% | 5.4y @22.4 | 02053 | 22 |
| 327 | Jesse McKinnon | F | WHL | 17.8 | — | — | 0.16 | 4 | 42% | 4.3y @22.1 | 0057 | 22 |
| 331 | Owen Cooper | F | WHL | 18 | — | — | 0.2 | 4.8 | 42% | 4.1y @22.1 | 0057 | 21.9 |
| 332 | Cameron Kuzma | F | WHL | 18.1 | — | — | 0.42 | 10.3 | 42% | 4y @22.1 | 0057 | 21.9 |
| 333 | Jayden Oleskiw | F | WHL | 18 | — | — | 0.13 | 3.3 | 42% | 4.1y @22.1 | 0057 | 21.9 |
| 334 | Cruz Waltze | F | WHL | 18 | — | — | 0.23 | 5.6 | 42% | 4.1y @22.1 | 0057 | 21.9 |
| 340 | Cooper Williams | F | WHL | 18.5 | TOR* | 26′ #158 | 0.86 | 21.2 | 47% | 3.9y @22.4 | 01952 | 21.8 |
| 346 | Giorgos Pantelas | F | WHL | 18.3 | LAK* | 26′ #153 | 0.54 | 13.4 | 42% | 4y @22.3 | 0056 | 21.6 |
| 347 | Jakub Vanecek | D | WHL | 18.5 | DAL* | 26′ #59 | 0.59 | 14.6 | 50% | 3.3y @21.8 | 01655 | 21.6 |
| 361 | Luke Christopherson | D | WHL | 17.3 | — | — | 0.06 | 1.4 | 47% | 5.3y @22.6 | 01653 | 21.1 |
| 362 | Dylan Dean | F | WHL | 18.3 | — | — | 0.56 | 13.7 | 40% | 3.9y @22.2 | 0056 | 21.1 |
| 363 | Joaquin Geras | D | WHL | 17.6 | — | — | 0.22 | 5.4 | 47% | 4.8y @22.4 | 01650 | 21.1 |
| 364 | Madden Tymchak | D | WHL | 17.5 | — | — | 0.05 | 1.2 | 47% | 4.9y @22.4 | 01650 | 21.1 |
| 365 | Owen Hayden | D | WHL | 17.6 | — | — | 0.02 | 0.6 | 47% | 4.8y @22.4 | 01650 | 21.1 |
Who each prospect looks like
8. Tij Iginla90% NHL · 1.4y
| Timo Meier 15′#9 | 81 pk | 698 GP |
| Nick Suzuki 17′#13 | 101 pk | 537 GP |
| Max Domi 13′#12 | 72 pk | 815 GP |
| Ty Dellandrea 18′#13 | 28 pk | 265 GP |
| Cody Glass 17′#6 | 40 pk | 322 GP |
9. Liam Ruck88% NHL · 2y
| Joel Farabee 18′#14 | 57 pk | 497 GP |
| Andre Burakovsky 13′#23 | 68 pk | 771 GP |
| Curtis Lazar 13′#17 | 29 pk | 617 GP |
| Nikolay Goldobin 14′#27 | 35 pk | 125 GP |
| Mikhail Grigorenko 12′#12 | 31 pk | 249 GP |
10. Markus Ruck85% NHL · 2.1y
| Nikolay Goldobin 14′#27 | 35 pk | 125 GP |
| Mason Shaw 17′#97 | never stuck | 82 GP |
| Daniel Sprong 15′#46 | 57 pk | 374 GP |
| Andre Burakovsky 13′#23 | 68 pk | 771 GP |
| Brock Boeser 15′#23 | 74 pk | 629 GP |
12. Matias Vanhanen75% NHL · 1.9y
| Nikolay Goldobin 14′#27 | 35 pk | 125 GP |
| Jaret Anderson-Dolan 17′#41 | 27 pk | 134 GP |
| Hunter Shinkaruk 13′#24 | never stuck | 15 GP |
| Mason Shaw 17′#97 | never stuck | 82 GP |
| Kailer Yamamoto 17′#22 | 79 pk | 374 GP |
13. Daxon Rudolph85% NHL · 1.6y
| Quinn Hughes 18′#7 | 92 pk | 507 GP |
| Mikhail Sergachev 16′#9 | 66 pk | 630 GP |
| Adam Boqvist 18′#8 | 43 pk | 272 GP |
| Evan Bouchard 18′#10 | 95 pk | 429 GP |
| Seth Jones 13′#4 | 60 pk | 912 GP |
15. Braeden Cootes70% NHL · 1.5y
| Jakub Vrana 14′#13 | 62 pk | 406 GP |
| Sonny Milano 14′#16 | 42 pk | 344 GP |
| Jared McCann 14′#24 | 73 pk | 720 GP |
| Bo Horvat 13′#9 | 90 pk | 881 GP |
| Mathew Barzal 15′#16 | 85 pk | 611 GP |
19. Carter Bear75% NHL · 1.5y
| Jakub Vrana 14′#13 | 62 pk | 406 GP |
| Luke Kunin 16′#15 | 41 pk | 496 GP |
| Kerby Rychel 13′#19 | never stuck | 43 GP |
| Timo Meier 15′#9 | 81 pk | 698 GP |
| Nick Suzuki 17′#13 | 101 pk | 537 GP |
23. Carson Carels75% NHL · 1.8y
| Mikhail Sergachev 16′#9 | 66 pk | 630 GP |
| Quinn Hughes 18′#7 | 92 pk | 507 GP |
| Jakob Chychrun 16′#16 | 64 pk | 621 GP |
| Evan Bouchard 18′#10 | 95 pk | 429 GP |
| Darnell Nurse 13′#7 | 53 pk | 798 GP |
31. Radim Mrtka78% NHL · 1.4y
| Erik Brannstrom 17′#15 | 36 pk | 294 GP |
| Morgan Rielly 12′#5 | 72 pk | 951 GP |
| Derrick Pouliot 12′#8 | 26 pk | 226 GP |
| Jeremy Roy 15′#31 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Olli Maatta 12′#22 | 55 pk | 804 GP |
38. Mathis Preston65% NHL · 3.7y
| J.T. Compher 13′#35 | 52 pk | 658 GP |
| Eeli Tolvanen 17′#30 | 46 pk | 423 GP |
| Scott Laughton 12′#20 | 45 pk | 745 GP |
| Jarrod Maidens 12′#82 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Daniel Sprong 15′#46 | 57 pk | 374 GP |
39. Maddox Schultz62% NHL · 5.4y
| Stefan Matteau 12′#29 | never stuck | 92 GP |
| Riley Barber 12′#167 | never stuck | 16 GP |
| Andrew Copp 13′#104 | 58 pk | 779 GP |
| Jared Fiegl 14′#191 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Nicolas Kerdiles 12′#36 | never stuck | 3 GP |
40. Ryan Lin68% NHL · 1.7y
| Jakob Chychrun 16′#16 | 64 pk | 621 GP |
| Mikhail Sergachev 16′#9 | 66 pk | 630 GP |
| Ian McCoshen 13′#31 | never stuck | 60 GP |
| Quinn Hughes 18′#7 | 92 pk | 507 GP |
| Evan Bouchard 18′#10 | 95 pk | 429 GP |