Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
156	Daniil Prokhorov	F	VHLPRO	19.3	NYI*	25′ #42	0.72	17.7	55%	3.1y @22.4	02568	28.1
305	Viktor Fedorov	F	VHLPRO	18.5	SEA*	26′ #99	0.25	6.1	50%	3.7y @22.2	01661	22.6
406	Nikita Shcherbakov	D	VHLPRO	18.8	NJD*	26′ #44	0.29	7	57%	3.9y @22.7	101942	20
549	Alexander Perevalov	F	VHLPRO	22.3	CAR*	22′ #71	0.59	14.4	38%	1.1y @23.4	01042	16.4
694	Yaroslav Fedoseyev	D	VHLPRO	18.8	TOR*	26′ #161	0.24	5.9	42%	3.7y @22.5	01129	13.7
746	Alexander Ivanov	D	VHLPRO	18.2	CHI*	26′ #194	0.08	2	42%	4.3y @22.5	01129	12.9
787	Maxim Agafonov	D	VHLPRO	19.4	SEA*	25′ #134	0.18	4.4	40%	3y @22.4	01129	12.3
811	Andrey Krutov	F	VHLPRO	20.3	CAR*	24′ #220	0.26	6.4	25%	2.8y @23.1	0037	11.9
1059	Alexander Pelevin	D	VHLPRO	22.3	—	—	0.24	5.9	28%	2.8y @25.1	0026	8.7
1129	Daniil Karpovich	D	VHLPRO	21.7	NJD*	23′ #186	0	0	23%	2.4y @24.1	0024	7.9
1379	Artem Barabosha	D	VHLPRO	22.4	NJD*	22′ #198	0.08	1.9	17%	3.4y @25.8	0024	5.7
1445	Stanislav Yarovoi	F	VHLPRO	23	CAR*	23′ #126	0.43	10.6	10%	2.9y @25.9	0020	5.1
1822	Daniil Chayka	D	VHLPRO	23.8	VGK*	21′ #38	0.12	3	7%	1y @24.8	0011	2.8

Who each prospect looks like

156. Daniil Prokhorov55% NHL · 3.1y

Adrian Kempe 14′#29	80 pk	711 GP
Vladislav Kamenev 14′#42	never stuck	66 GP
Joel Eriksson Ek 15′#20	68 pk	614 GP
Brock McGinn 12′#47	31 pk	534 GP
Joe Veleno 18′#30	29 pk	367 GP

305. Viktor Fedorov50% NHL · 3.7y

Matia Marcantuoni 12′#92	never stuck	0 GP
Dominic Turgeon 14′#63	never stuck	9 GP
Beck Malenstyn 16′#145	21 pk	262 GP
Taylor Leier 12′#117	never stuck	55 GP
Givani Smith 16′#46	12 pk	168 GP

406. Nikita Shcherbakov57% NHL · 3.9y

Martin Fehérváry 18′#46	27 pk	380 GP
Urho Vaakanainen 17′#18	27 pk	221 GP
Robert Hagg 13′#41	22 pk	345 GP
Jacob Cederholm 16′#97	never stuck	0 GP
Gabriel Carlsson 15′#29	never stuck	81 GP

549. Alexander Perevalov38% NHL · 1.1y

Ryan Kujawinski 13′#73	never stuck	0 GP
Jake Leschyshyn 17′#62	never stuck	77 GP
Keegan Kolesar 15′#69	30 pk	439 GP
Jordan Martinook 12′#58	37 pk	797 GP
Akil Thomas 18′#51	never stuck	32 GP

694. Yaroslav Fedoseyev42% NHL · 3.7y

Jacob Cederholm 16′#97	never stuck	0 GP
Martin Fehérváry 18′#46	27 pk	380 GP
Maxime Lajoie 16′#133	never stuck	77 GP
Gustav Forsling 14′#126	43 pk	557 GP
Cale Fleury 17′#87	11 pk	100 GP

746. Alexander Ivanov42% NHL · 4.3y

Jacob Cederholm 16′#97	never stuck	0 GP
Martin Fehérváry 18′#46	27 pk	380 GP
Maxime Lajoie 16′#133	never stuck	77 GP
Gabriel Carlsson 15′#29	never stuck	81 GP
Gustav Forsling 14′#126	43 pk	557 GP

787. Maxim Agafonov40% NHL · 3y

Jacob Cederholm 16′#97	never stuck	0 GP
Cale Fleury 17′#87	11 pk	100 GP
Martin Fehérváry 18′#46	27 pk	380 GP
Maxime Lajoie 16′#133	never stuck	77 GP
Robert Hagg 13′#41	22 pk	345 GP

811. Andrey Krutov25% NHL · 2.8y

Drake Rymsha 17′#138	never stuck	1 GP
Beck Malenstyn 16′#145	21 pk	262 GP
Matia Marcantuoni 12′#92	never stuck	0 GP
Nick Caamano 16′#146	never stuck	36 GP
Jesse Gabrielle 15′#105	never stuck	0 GP

1059. Alexander Pelevin28% NHL · 2.8y

Tyler Tucker 18′#200	20 pk	159 GP
Justin Hache 12′#208	never stuck	0 GP
Jakub Galvas 17′#150	never stuck	6 GP
Dawson Barteaux 18′#168	never stuck	0 GP
Tim Berni 18′#159	never stuck	59 GP

1129. Daniil Karpovich23% NHL · 2.4y

Antti Palojarvi 17′#186	never stuck	0 GP
Robin Press 13′#211	never stuck	0 GP
Sebastian Walfridsson 17′#151	never stuck	0 GP
Dawson Barteaux 18′#168	never stuck	0 GP
Anton Cederholm 13′#145	never stuck	0 GP

1379. Artem Barabosha17% NHL · 3.4y

Dawson Barteaux 18′#168	never stuck	0 GP
Ryan Culkin 12′#124	never stuck	0 GP
Antti Palojarvi 17′#186	never stuck	0 GP
Petter Hansson 15′#202	never stuck	0 GP
Robin Press 13′#211	never stuck	0 GP

1445. Stanislav Yarovoi10% NHL · 2.9y

Igor Shvyrev 17′#125	never stuck	0 GP
Conner Bleackley 16′#144	never stuck	0 GP
Brad Morrison 15′#113	never stuck	0 GP
Michael Pezzetta 16′#160	20 pk	209 GP
Nick Henry 17′#94	never stuck	0 GP