Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
73	Jack Hextall	F	USHL	18.4	CGY	26′ #30	0.98	19.3	62%	3.4y @21.8	03168	31.6
106	Blake Zielinski	F	USHL	18.5	LAK*	26′ #80	1.04	20.4	55%	3.4y @21.9	02983	29.4
109	Victor Plante	F	USHL	18.4	DET*	26′ #47	0.9	17.7	57%	3.5y @21.9	02962	29.2
123	Casey Mutryn	F	USHL	18.1	SEA*	26′ #38	0.64	12.6	55%	3.7y @21.8	02968	28.7
162	Cooper Soller	F	USHL	18	TBL*	26′ #154	0.79	15.6	50%	3.9y @21.9	02483	27.8
222	Rudolfs Berzkalns	F	USHL	18.5	EDM*	26′ #58	0.52	10.2	47%	3.5y @22	0383	25.8
274	Mason West	F	USHL	19	CHI	25′ #29	0.66	12.9	50%	3y @22	01568	23.7
315	Michael Berchild	F	USHL	18.5	CAR*	26′ #105	0.9	17.8	45%	3.7y @22.2	0356	22.4
420	Theodore Lechner	D	USHL	18	COL*	26′ #152	0.1	1.9	45%	4.4y @22.4	01650	19.8
438	Evan Jardine	F	USHL	18.8	CBJ*	26′ #121	1.15	22.7	38%	4y @22.8	0056	19.2
542	Jonas Kemps	D	USHL	18.6	FLA*	26′ #98	0.16	3.1	42%	4.2y @22.8	01644	16.7
589	Luke Schairer	D	USHL	18.6	STL*	26′ #75	0.36	7.1	40%	4.2y @22.8	01544	15.7
628	Parker Trottier	F	USHL	18.5	MTL*	26′ #189	0.58	11.5	33%	4.3y @22.8	0046	15.1
649	James Rieber	D	USHL	18.3	ANA*	26′ #210	0.18	3.6	35%	4.7y @23	0844	14.6
679	Bode Laylin	D	USHL	18.8	CGY*	26′ #164	0.69	13.6	35%	4.8y @23.6	0044	13.9
788	Landon Hafele	F	USHL	18.9	WPG*	26′ #167	0.81	15.9	28%	4.6y @23.5	0046	12.3
794	Justin Graf	F	USHL	19.1	NSH*	26′ #118	1.06	20.8	23%	3.7y @22.8	0046	12.2
900	Carter Sanderson	F	USHL	18.9	PIT*	25′ #169	0.63	12.4	23%	5y @23.9	0046	10.8
933	Jean-Samuel Daigneault	D	USHL	18.5	MTL*	26′ #221	0.11	2.1	28%	4.6y @23.1	0029	10.5
1073	Cooper Simpson	F	USHL	19.5	BOS*	25′ #79	1.21	23.9	25%	3.6y @23.1	0038	8.7
1115	Cullen Mccrate	D	USHL	19.3	BOS*	26′ #216	0.49	9.7	23%	4.4y @23.7	0029	8.2
1136	Melvin Novotny	F	USHL	19.4	BUF*	25′ #195	1.19	23.4	15%	3.2y @22.6	0044	7.8
1199	Carter Amico	D	USHL	19.4	PHI*	25′ #38	0.41	8	23%	2.7y @22.1	0026	7.2
1288	Jackson Crowder	F	USHL	19.3	WSH*	25′ #155	1.02	20.1	12%	3.8y @23.1	0020	6.6
1402	Cole Tuminaro	D	USHL	19.6	COL*	26′ #140	0.3	5.8	17%	3.7y @23.3	0025	5.5
1415	Zach Wooten	F	USHL	20.5	WPG*	26′ #116	1.02	20	10%	3.4y @23.9	0020	5.4
1467	Viktor Norringer	F	USHL	20	NSH*	24′ #127	1.02	20.1	10%	2y @22	0021	5
1477	Ryan Rucinski	F	USHL	19.7	BUF*	25′ #219	1.05	20.7	10%	3y @22.7	000	4.9
1501	Maceo Phillips	D	USHL	19.5	CGY*	25′ #80	0.25	4.9	15%	2y @21.5	0025	4.7
1640	Ludvig Lafton	D	USHL	20.6	UTA*	24′ #190	0.62	12.3	10%	4.3y @24.9	0014	3.9
1657	David Rozsival	F	USHL	19.2	NJD*	25′ #161	0.65	12.8	10%	6y @25.2	000	3.8
1696	William Samuelsson	F	USHL	20.9	DAL*	24′ #222	0.46	9	7%	4y @24.9	0012	3.6
1697	Connor Davis	F	USHL	19.8	VAN*	26′ #129	0.93	18.3	7%	2.5y @22.3	000	3.6
1698	William Tomko	F	USHL	19.8	SEA*	26′ #204	1.02	20	7%	2.5y @22.3	000	3.6
1750	Brent Solomon	F	USHL	19.6	DET*	25′ #109	0.98	19.3	10%	3.5y @23.1	000	3.3
1962	Ashton Schultz	F	USHL	19.9	BUF*	25′ #167	0.69	13.5	5%	3.7y @23.6	000	1.6

Who each prospect looks like

73. Jack Hextall62% NHL · 3.4y

J.T. Compher 13′#35	52 pk	658 GP
Scott Laughton 12′#20	45 pk	745 GP
Colin White 15′#21	47 pk	323 GP
Isac Lundeström 18′#23	30 pk	405 GP
Eeli Tolvanen 17′#30	46 pk	423 GP

106. Blake Zielinski55% NHL · 3.4y

Jarrod Maidens 12′#82	never stuck	0 GP
Jake Guentzel 13′#77	91 pk	681 GP
J.T. Compher 13′#35	52 pk	658 GP
Ivan Morozov 18′#61	never stuck	0 GP
Eeli Tolvanen 17′#30	46 pk	423 GP

109. Victor Plante57% NHL · 3.5y

Jarrod Maidens 12′#82	never stuck	0 GP
Ivan Morozov 18′#61	never stuck	0 GP
Eeli Tolvanen 17′#30	46 pk	423 GP
J.T. Compher 13′#35	52 pk	658 GP
Scott Laughton 12′#20	45 pk	745 GP

123. Casey Mutryn55% NHL · 3.7y

Ivan Morozov 18′#61	never stuck	0 GP
Alex Formenton 17′#47	33 pk	109 GP
Thomas Di Pauli 12′#100	never stuck	2 GP
Scott Laughton 12′#20	45 pk	745 GP
Eeli Tolvanen 17′#30	46 pk	423 GP

162. Cooper Soller50% NHL · 3.9y

Thomas Di Pauli 12′#100	never stuck	2 GP
Tyler Motte 13′#121	34 pk	455 GP
Jarrod Maidens 12′#82	never stuck	0 GP
Ivan Morozov 18′#61	never stuck	0 GP
Hudson Fasching 13′#118	32 pk	175 GP

222. Rudolfs Berzkalns47% NHL · 3.5y

Ivan Morozov 18′#61	never stuck	0 GP
Thomas Di Pauli 12′#100	never stuck	2 GP
Tyler Motte 13′#121	34 pk	455 GP
Jarrod Maidens 12′#82	never stuck	0 GP
Shane Eiserman 14′#100	never stuck	0 GP

274. Mason West50% NHL · 3y

Fabian Zetterlund 17′#63	46 pk	329 GP
Isac Lundeström 18′#23	30 pk	405 GP
Connor Hurley 13′#38	never stuck	0 GP
Alexander Volkov 17′#48	never stuck	46 GP
Joni Ikonen 17′#58	never stuck	0 GP

315. Michael Berchild45% NHL · 3.7y

Jarrod Maidens 12′#82	never stuck	0 GP
Shane Eiserman 14′#100	never stuck	0 GP
Luke Johnson 13′#134	never stuck	32 GP
Jake Guentzel 13′#77	91 pk	681 GP
Ivan Morozov 18′#61	never stuck	0 GP

420. Theodore Lechner45% NHL · 4.4y

Joakim Ryan 12′#198	16 pk	145 GP
Tanner Faith 14′#139	never stuck	0 GP
Michael Downing 13′#97	never stuck	0 GP
Filip Westerlund 17′#44	never stuck	0 GP
Gage Ausmus 13′#151	never stuck	0 GP

438. Evan Jardine38% NHL · 4y

Jake Guentzel 13′#77	91 pk	681 GP
Luke Johnson 13′#134	never stuck	32 GP
Jonne Tammela 15′#118	never stuck	0 GP
Shane Eiserman 14′#100	never stuck	0 GP
Jarrod Maidens 12′#82	never stuck	0 GP

542. Jonas Kemps42% NHL · 4.2y

Gage Ausmus 13′#151	never stuck	0 GP
Connor Clifton 13′#133	24 pk	434 GP
Brian Cooper 12′#127	never stuck	0 GP
Will Butcher 13′#123	45 pk	275 GP
Matt Grzelcyk 12′#85	44 pk	596 GP

589. Luke Schairer40% NHL · 4.2y

Matt Grzelcyk 12′#85	44 pk	596 GP
Gustav Olofsson 13′#46	never stuck	63 GP
Filip Westerlund 17′#44	never stuck	0 GP
Michael Downing 13′#97	never stuck	0 GP
Will Butcher 13′#123	45 pk	275 GP