Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
269	Simas Ignatavicius	F	NLPRO	18.8	FLA*	26′ #40	0.25	11.3	57%	3.9y @22.7	01961	24
323	Jiri Felcman	F	NLPRO	21.3	CHI*	23′ #93	0.38	17.3	45%	1.6y @22.9	01559	22.1
568	Vinzenz Rohrer	F	NLPRO	21.9	MTL*	22′ #75	0.29	13.2	40%	1.5y @23.4	01237	16
581	Rodwin Dionicio	D	NLPRO	22.4	ANA*	23′ #129	0.55	24.9	38%	1.7y @24.1	01341	15.8
654	Ludvig Johnson	D	NLPRO	20.1	UTA*	25′ #174	0.3	13.6	42%	2.4y @22.5	01129	14.4
1032	Basile Sansonnens	D	NLPRO	20	VAN*	24′ #221	0.07	3.1	33%	2.7y @22.7	0426	9.1
1226	Rico Gredig	F	NLPRO	21.5	NYR*	24′ #191	0.15	6.7	12%	1.7y @23.2	0025	7
1807	Manix Landry	F	NLPRO	23.7	ARI*	21′ #139	0.31	13.9	10%	2.1y @25.8	000	2.9
1928	Brian Zanetti	D	NLPRO	23.4	PHI*	21′ #110	0.13	6.1	5%	2.7y @26.1	000	1.8

Who each prospect looks like

269. Simas Ignatavicius57% NHL · 3.9y

Marko Dano 13′#27	49 pk	141 GP
Adrian Kempe 14′#29	80 pk	711 GP
Joel Eriksson Ek 15′#20	68 pk	614 GP
Martin Kaut 18′#16	never stuck	56 GP
Brock McGinn 12′#47	31 pk	534 GP

323. Jiri Felcman45% NHL · 1.6y

Mikhail Vorobyev 15′#104	never stuck	35 GP
Paul Cotter 18′#115	27 pk	296 GP
JC Lipon 13′#91	never stuck	9 GP
Philipp Kurashev 18′#120	59 pk	360 GP
Michael Amadio 14′#90	35 pk	522 GP

568. Vinzenz Rohrer40% NHL · 1.5y

Fabian Zetterlund 17′#63	46 pk	329 GP
Jonathan Gruden 18′#95	never stuck	16 GP
Carsen Twarynski 16′#82	never stuck	22 GP
JC Lipon 13′#91	never stuck	9 GP
Scott Kosmachuk 12′#70	never stuck	8 GP

581. Rodwin Dionicio38% NHL · 1.7y

Colin Miller 12′#151	41 pk	590 GP
Markus Nutivaara 15′#189	31 pk	275 GP
Andrei Mironov 15′#101	never stuck	10 GP
Lucas Carlsson 16′#110	never stuck	73 GP
Veeti Vainio 15′#141	never stuck	0 GP

654. Ludvig Johnson42% NHL · 2.4y

Gustav Forsling 14′#126	43 pk	557 GP
Maxime Lajoie 16′#133	never stuck	77 GP
Sami Niku 15′#198	never stuck	67 GP
Cale Fleury 17′#87	11 pk	100 GP
Trevor Carrick 12′#115	never stuck	7 GP

1032. Basile Sansonnens33% NHL · 2.7y

Maxime Lajoie 16′#133	never stuck	77 GP
Tyler Ganly 13′#156	never stuck	0 GP
Jacob Cederholm 16′#97	never stuck	0 GP
Simon Bourque 15′#177	never stuck	0 GP
Sebastian Walfridsson 17′#151	never stuck	0 GP

1226. Rico Gredig12% NHL · 1.7y

Ivan Chekhovich 17′#212	never stuck	4 GP
Drake Rymsha 17′#138	never stuck	1 GP
Viktor Crus Rydberg 13′#136	never stuck	0 GP
Ben Jones 17′#189	never stuck	56 GP
Mattias Elfstrom 16′#197	never stuck	0 GP

1807. Manix Landry10% NHL · 2.1y

Reid Duke 14′#169	never stuck	0 GP
Luke Johnson 13′#134	never stuck	32 GP
Graham McPhee 16′#149	never stuck	0 GP
Fabrice Herzog 13′#142	never stuck	0 GP
Michael Eyssimont 16′#142	33 pk	269 GP

1928. Brian Zanetti5% NHL · 2.7y

Keaton Thompson 13′#87	never stuck	0 GP
Michael Prapavessis 14′#105	never stuck	0 GP
Devante Stephens 15′#122	never stuck	0 GP
Niklas Hansson 13′#68	never stuck	0 GP
Nico Gross 18′#101	never stuck	0 GP