Prospect Rankings
Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.
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How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.
Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.
| # | Player | Pos | League | Age | Org | Draft | P/GP | NHLe | P(NHL) | ETA | Upside band | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gavin McKenna★ | F | NCAA | 18.7 | TOR | 26′ #1 | 1.46 | 49 | 100% | 0.9y @19.6 | 5380113 | 77.8 |
| 5 | James Hagens★ | F | NCAA | 19.8 | BOS | 25′ #7 | 1.38 | 46.5 | 88% | 1.2y @21 | 416297 | 60 |
| 7 | Porter Martone★ | F | NCAA | 19.8 | PHI | 25′ #6 | 1.43 | 48 | 85% | 1.4y @21.2 | 356297 | 58.3 |
| 22 | Cole Reschny★ | F | NCAA | 19.4 | CGY | 25′ #18 | 0.97 | 32.7 | 72% | 2.4y @21.8 | 233979 | 41.8 |
| 26 | Jackson Smith★ | D | NCAA | 19.3 | CBJ | 25′ #14 | 0.74 | 25 | 78% | 1.8y @21.1 | 153673 | 38.1 |
| 28 | Keaton Verhoeff★ | D | NCAA | 18.2 | SJS | 26′ #9 | 0.56 | 18.7 | 68% | 1.7y @19.9 | 154377 | 37.9 |
| 29 | Ilia Morozov★ | F | NCAA | 18 | BUF | 26′ #20 | 0.56 | 18.7 | 72% | 3.4y @21.4 | 04383 | 37.8 |
| 32 | Roger McQueen | F | NCAA | 19.9 | ANA | 25′ #10 | 0.75 | 25.2 | 65% | 2.2y @22.1 | 203571 | 37.3 |
| 33 | William Horcoff | F | NCAA | 19.6 | PIT | 25′ #24 | 0.97 | 32.8 | 68% | 2.4y @22 | 163571 | 36.1 |
| 34 | Vaclav Nestrasil | F | NCAA | 19.4 | CHI | 25′ #25 | 0.91 | 30.7 | 65% | 2.6y @22 | 193571 | 35.8 |
| 37 | Cullen Potter | F | NCAA | 19.6 | CGY | 25′ #32 | 1.08 | 36.4 | 62% | 2y @21.6 | 193473 | 35.3 |
| 48 | Michael Hage | F | NCAA | 20.4 | MTL | 24′ #21 | 1.33 | 44.8 | 65% | 2.3y @22.7 | 163081 | 33.8 |
| 57 | Ethan Wyttenbach★ | F | NCAA | 19.5 | CGY | 25′ #144 | 1.48 | 49.6 | 55% | 2.6y @22.1 | 03077 | 33 |
| 75 | Max Plante | F | NCAA | 20.5 | DET | 24′ #47 | 1.3 | 43.7 | 60% | 2.3y @22.8 | 03078 | 31.5 |
| 81 | Adam Valentini | F | NCAA | 18.4 | UTA* | 26′ #96 | 0.68 | 22.7 | 57% | 3.5y @21.9 | 03083 | 31.1 |
| 115 | Ryker Lee | F | NCAA | 19.8 | NSH | 25′ #26 | 0.86 | 28.8 | 55% | 2.5y @22.3 | 153061 | 28.9 |
| 140 | Cole Eiserman | F | NCAA | 20 | NYI | 24′ #20 | 0.88 | 29.4 | 57% | 2.5y @22.5 | 03061 | 28.4 |
| 221 | Dean Letourneau | F | NCAA | 20.5 | BOS | 24′ #25 | 1.08 | 36.4 | 53% | 2.3y @22.8 | 02553 | 25.8 |
| 228 | Cole Hutson | D | NCAA | 20.1 | WSH | 24′ #43 | 0.91 | 30.7 | 62% | 2.6y @22.7 | 02552 | 25.4 |
| 255 | Jack Murtagh | F | NCAA | 19 | PHI* | 25′ #40 | 0.31 | 10.6 | 50% | 3.3y @22.3 | 01656 | 24.4 |
| 287 | Logan Hensler | D | NCAA | 19.8 | OTT | 25′ #23 | 0.52 | 17.5 | 62% | 2.4y @22.2 | 02052 | 23.1 |
| 425 | John Mustard | F | NCAA | 20 | CHI* | 24′ #67 | 0.81 | 27.1 | 38% | 3.6y @23.6 | 01559 | 19.6 |
| 526 | John Mooney | F | NCAA | 19.5 | MTL* | 25′ #113 | 0.88 | 29.7 | 40% | 3.6y @23.1 | 0345 | 17.1 |
| 543 | Sacha Boisvert | F | NCAA | 20.4 | CHI | 24′ #18 | 0.65 | 22 | 35% | 2.5y @22.9 | 0446 | 16.6 |
| 573 | Malcolm Spence | F | NCAA | 19.9 | NYR* | 25′ #43 | 0.62 | 21 | 35% | 3.2y @23.1 | 0038 | 15.9 |
| 627 | Luke Osburn | D | NCAA | 19.9 | BUF* | 24′ #108 | 0.64 | 21.4 | 42% | 2.6y @22.5 | 01143 | 15.1 |
| 645 | Cayden Lindstrom | F | NCAA | 20.5 | CBJ | 24′ #4 | 0.32 | 10.8 | 38% | 1.6y @22.1 | 0036 | 14.6 |
| 678 | Justin Poirier | F | NCAA | 20 | CAR* | 24′ #156 | 1.07 | 36.1 | 28% | 3.6y @23.6 | 0035 | 13.9 |
| 691 | Brodie Ziemer | F | NCAA | 20.5 | BUF* | 24′ #71 | 1 | 33.6 | 30% | 3.3y @23.8 | 0035 | 13.7 |
| 793 | Sascha Boumedienne | D | NCAA | 19.6 | WPG | 25′ #28 | 0.29 | 9.6 | 38% | 2.5y @22.1 | 0027 | 12.2 |
| 800 | Landon Nycz | D | NCAA | 18.9 | STL* | 26′ #107 | 0.09 | 2.9 | 33% | 4.2y @23.1 | 0029 | 12 |
| 836 | Xavier Veilleux | D | NCAA | 20.4 | NYI* | 24′ #179 | 0.76 | 25.7 | 33% | 2.4y @22.8 | 0031 | 11.6 |
| 860 | Lincoln Kuehne | D | NCAA | 18.7 | NYI* | 26′ #109 | 0.07 | 2.2 | 30% | 4.2y @22.9 | 0029 | 11.3 |
| 889 | EJ Emery | D | NCAA | 20.4 | NYR | 24′ #30 | 0.34 | 11.5 | 33% | 3.3y @23.7 | 0031 | 10.9 |
| 932 | Eric Nilson | F | NCAA | 19.3 | ANA* | 25′ #45 | 0.31 | 10.6 | 28% | 3.8y @23.1 | 0032 | 10.5 |
| 961 | Kamil Bednarik | F | NCAA | 20.2 | NYI* | 24′ #61 | 0.46 | 15.4 | 17% | 2.6y @22.8 | 0043 | 10.1 |
| 964 | Jacob Rombach | D | NCAA | 19.4 | NSH* | 25′ #35 | 0.11 | 3.7 | 30% | 2.7y @22.1 | 0027 | 10.1 |
| 971 | Charlton Trethewey | D | NCAA | 19 | PIT* | 25′ #73 | 0.29 | 9.9 | 25% | 3.3y @22.3 | 0029 | 10 |
| 987 | Heikki Ruohonen | F | NCAA | 20.2 | PHI* | 24′ #107 | 0.68 | 22.8 | 23% | 2.6y @22.8 | 0033 | 9.8 |
| 991 | Teddy Stiga | F | NCAA | 20.4 | NSH* | 24′ #55 | 0.68 | 22.8 | 25% | 2.6y @23 | 0030 | 9.7 |
| 1013 | Richard Gallant | F | NCAA | 19.2 | SJS* | 25′ #210 | 0.53 | 17.8 | 17% | 4.9y @24.1 | 0037 | 9.3 |
| 1021 | Conrad Fondrk | F | NCAA | 19.2 | NJD* | 25′ #50 | 0.32 | 10.8 | 25% | 3.9y @23.1 | 0032 | 9.2 |
| 1031 | Adam Kleber | D | NCAA | 20.4 | BUF* | 24′ #42 | 0.3 | 10.1 | 25% | 3.4y @23.8 | 0029 | 9.1 |
| 1056 | Shane Vansaghi | F | NCAA | 19.9 | PHI* | 25′ #48 | 0.31 | 10.6 | 23% | 3.2y @23.1 | 0036 | 8.8 |
| 1057 | Asher Barnett | D | NCAA | 19.3 | EDM* | 25′ #131 | 0.45 | 15.1 | 23% | 3.5y @22.8 | 0029 | 8.8 |
| 1058 | Jeremy Loranger | F | NCAA | 19.2 | CBJ* | 25′ #198 | 0.68 | 22.8 | 15% | 3.8y @23 | 0044 | 8.8 |
| 1088 | Cole McKinney | F | NCAA | 19.4 | SJS* | 25′ #53 | 0.5 | 16.8 | 28% | 3.8y @23.2 | 0032 | 8.5 |
| 1120 | Ryder Ritchie | F | NCAA | 20 | MIN* | 24′ #45 | 0.47 | 15.9 | 20% | 3y @23 | 0025 | 8.1 |
| 1121 | William Moore | F | NCAA | 19.4 | BOS* | 25′ #51 | 0.3 | 10.2 | 25% | 4.1y @23.5 | 0032 | 8.1 |
| 1168 | Elliott Groenewold | D | NCAA | 20.5 | BOS* | 24′ #110 | 0.5 | 16.8 | 15% | 3.4y @23.9 | 0026 | 7.5 |
| 1169 | Robert Cowan | F | NCAA | 20.2 | NYI* | 26′ #205 | 0.62 | 20.7 | 15% | 2.7y @22.9 | 0036 | 7.5 |
| 1248 | Kristian Epperson | F | NCAA | 20.3 | LAK* | 25′ #88 | 0.55 | 18.5 | 15% | 3.4y @23.7 | 0025 | 6.9 |
| 1260 | Logan Sawyer | F | NCAA | 20.3 | MTL* | 24′ #78 | 0.8 | 26.9 | 17% | 3.5y @23.8 | 0030 | 6.8 |
| 1287 | Colin Ralph | D | NCAA | 20.9 | STL* | 24′ #48 | 0.3 | 10 | 23% | 3y @23.9 | 0027 | 6.6 |
| 1317 | Malte Vass | D | NCAA | 19.4 | CBJ* | 25′ #76 | 0.14 | 4.6 | 23% | 2.9y @22.3 | 0026 | 6.4 |
| 1338 | Clarke Caswell | F | NCAA | 20.5 | SEA* | 24′ #141 | 0.79 | 26.6 | 10% | 3.7y @24.2 | 0021 | 6.2 |
| 1339 | Lucas Van Vliet | F | NCAA | 20.6 | VGK* | 24′ #197 | 0.95 | 31.8 | 12% | 3.1y @23.7 | 0034 | 6.2 |
| 1343 | Ollie Josephson | F | NCAA | 20.1 | SEA* | 24′ #105 | 0.53 | 17.7 | 12% | 2.7y @22.8 | 0021 | 6.1 |
| 1366 | Drew Schock | D | NCAA | 19.5 | ANA* | 25′ #101 | 0.26 | 8.8 | 20% | 5.1y @24.6 | 0025 | 5.9 |
| 1401 | Hagen Burrows | F | NCAA | 20.9 | TBL* | 24′ #128 | 0.37 | 12.5 | 12% | 3.9y @24.8 | 0021 | 5.5 |
| 1413 | Miguel Marques | F | NCAA | 20.5 | NSH* | 24′ #87 | 0.7 | 23.4 | 15% | 3.4y @23.9 | 0025 | 5.4 |
| 1414 | Tomas Mrsic | F | NCAA | 20.5 | STL* | 24′ #113 | 0.28 | 9.3 | 15% | 3.9y @24.4 | 0021 | 5.4 |
| 1425 | Alexandre Blais | F | NCAA | 20.8 | ANA* | 24′ #100 | 0.5 | 16.8 | 10% | 2.1y @22.9 | 0020 | 5.3 |
| 1426 | Bauer Berry | D | NCAA | 20.8 | EDM* | 24′ #218 | 0.38 | 12.7 | 12% | 3.1y @23.9 | 0026 | 5.3 |
| 1427 | Sean Barnhill | D | NCAA | 19.6 | NYR* | 25′ #70 | 0.11 | 3.6 | 20% | 3.6y @23.2 | 0025 | 5.3 |
| 1439 | Luke Misa | F | NCAA | 20.7 | CGY* | 24′ #150 | 0.51 | 17.3 | 10% | 2.7y @23.4 | 0013 | 5.2 |
| 1446 | Matthew Lansing | F | NCAA | 19.5 | VAN* | 25′ #207 | 0.45 | 15.1 | 12% | 4.6y @24.1 | 0020 | 5.1 |
| 1466 | Javon Moore | F | NCAA | 20.7 | OTT* | 24′ #112 | 0.58 | 19.6 | 10% | 2.3y @23 | 0012 | 5 |
| 1468 | Brendan McMorrow | F | NCAA | 20.4 | LAK* | 25′ #196 | 0.41 | 13.7 | 10% | 3.5y @23.9 | 0021 | 5 |
| 1502 | William Belle | F | NCAA | 19.6 | TOR* | 25′ #137 | 0.12 | 4 | 12% | 6.3y @25.9 | 0027 | 4.7 |
| 1534 | Ben Merrill | F | NCAA | 20.8 | MTL* | 24′ #166 | 0.42 | 14.3 | 12% | 3.1y @23.9 | 0020 | 4.5 |
| 1535 | Ben Kevan | F | NCAA | 19.6 | NJD* | 25′ #63 | 0.29 | 9.9 | 15% | 4.1y @23.7 | 0016 | 4.5 |
| 1536 | Caeden Herrington | D | NCAA | 20.6 | LAK* | 25′ #120 | 0.24 | 7.9 | 15% | 4.2y @24.8 | 0019 | 4.5 |
| 1572 | Aidan Park | F | NCAA | 20.6 | EDM* | 25′ #223 | 0.4 | 13.4 | 12% | 3.3y @23.9 | 0020 | 4.3 |
| 1605 | Mason Moe | F | NCAA | 19.4 | NJD* | 25′ #90 | 0.36 | 12.2 | 15% | 4y @23.4 | 0016 | 4.2 |
| 1606 | Nolan Roed | F | NCAA | 20.8 | COL* | 25′ #214 | 0.5 | 16.8 | 7% | 3.1y @23.9 | 0020 | 4.2 |
| 1615 | Colton Roberts | D | NCAA | 20.2 | SJS* | 24′ #131 | 0.38 | 12.8 | 7% | 5.6y @25.8 | 0015 | 4.1 |
| 1641 | Wilson Bjorck | F | NCAA | 20.6 | VAN* | 25′ #143 | 0.48 | 16.3 | 10% | 2.8y @23.4 | 0020 | 3.9 |
| 1656 | James Reeder | F | NCAA | 20.9 | LAK* | 24′ #198 | 0.77 | 25.8 | 10% | 2.1y @23 | 0020 | 3.8 |
| 1677 | Cooper Cleaves | D | NCAA | 20.6 | MTL* | 26′ #93 | 0.33 | 11.2 | 12% | 4.3y @24.9 | 0014 | 3.7 |
| 1766 | Bruno Idzan | F | NCAA | 20.6 | OTT* | 25′ #181 | 0.25 | 8.4 | 10% | 4.3y @24.9 | 0012 | 3.2 |
| 1794 | Sam Laurila | D | NCAA | 20 | NYI* | 25′ #138 | 0.28 | 9.3 | 7% | 5y @25 | 0015 | 3.1 |
| 1795 | Maxon Vig | D | NCAA | 20.8 | MTL* | 25′ #209 | 0.19 | 6.5 | 10% | 3.1y @23.9 | 0011 | 3.1 |
| 1856 | Will Skahan | D | NCAA | 20.3 | UTA* | 24′ #65 | 0.03 | 1.1 | 10% | 3.3y @23.6 | 004 | 2.6 |
| 1877 | Vasily Zelenov | F | NCAA | 20.5 | BUF* | 24′ #204 | 0.68 | 22.8 | 7% | 2.5y @23 | 000 | 2.4 |
| 1878 | Mac Swanson | F | NCAA | 20.6 | PIT* | 24′ #207 | 0.7 | 23.5 | 7% | 2.4y @23 | 000 | 2.4 |
| 1913 | Jonathan Morello | F | NCAA | 20.1 | BOS* | 24′ #154 | 0.36 | 12.1 | 3% | 2.6y @22.7 | 000 | 2 |
| 1970 | John Whipple | D | NCAA | 20.6 | DET* | 24′ #144 | 0.06 | 1.9 | 7% | 3.8y @24.4 | 000 | 1.5 |
Who each prospect looks like
1. Gavin McKenna100% NHL · 0.9y
| Sam Reinhart 14′#2 | 94 pk | 839 GP |
| Nail Yakupov 12′#1 | 53 pk | 350 GP |
| Connor McDavid 15′#1 | 154 pk | 794 GP |
| Leon Draisaitl 14′#3 | 131 pk | 855 GP |
| Nico Hischier 17′#1 | 81 pk | 609 GP |
5. James Hagens88% NHL · 1.2y
| Timo Meier 15′#9 | 81 pk | 698 GP |
| Robby Fabbri 14′#21 | 49 pk | 463 GP |
| Mitch Marner 15′#4 | 110 pk | 738 GP |
| Luke Kunin 16′#15 | 41 pk | 496 GP |
| Barrett Hayton 18′#5 | 46 pk | 358 GP |
7. Porter Martone85% NHL · 1.4y
| Timo Meier 15′#9 | 81 pk | 698 GP |
| Mitch Marner 15′#4 | 110 pk | 738 GP |
| Robby Fabbri 14′#21 | 49 pk | 463 GP |
| Nick Suzuki 17′#13 | 101 pk | 537 GP |
| Luke Kunin 16′#15 | 41 pk | 496 GP |
22. Cole Reschny72% NHL · 2.4y
| Sonny Milano 14′#16 | 42 pk | 344 GP |
| Mathew Barzal 15′#16 | 85 pk | 611 GP |
| Joshua Ho-Sang 14′#28 | never stuck | 53 GP |
| Nick Schmaltz 14′#20 | 77 pk | 670 GP |
| Jared McCann 14′#24 | 73 pk | 720 GP |
26. Jackson Smith78% NHL · 1.8y
| Adam Boqvist 18′#8 | 43 pk | 272 GP |
| Dennis Cholowski 16′#20 | 25 pk | 173 GP |
| Slater Koekkoek 12′#10 | 20 pk | 186 GP |
| Mathew Dumba 12′#7 | 56 pk | 748 GP |
| Rasmus Sandin 18′#29 | 33 pk | 382 GP |
28. Keaton Verhoeff68% NHL · 1.7y
| Mikhail Sergachev 16′#9 | 66 pk | 630 GP |
| Jakob Chychrun 16′#16 | 64 pk | 621 GP |
| Darnell Nurse 13′#7 | 53 pk | 798 GP |
| Ian McCoshen 13′#31 | never stuck | 60 GP |
| Noah Hanifin 15′#5 | 49 pk | 829 GP |
29. Ilia Morozov72% NHL · 3.4y
| Scott Laughton 12′#20 | 45 pk | 745 GP |
| J.T. Compher 13′#35 | 52 pk | 658 GP |
| Eeli Tolvanen 17′#30 | 46 pk | 423 GP |
| Dylan Larkin 14′#15 | 83 pk | 808 GP |
| Alex Formenton 17′#47 | 33 pk | 109 GP |
32. Roger McQueen65% NHL · 2.2y
| Jake DeBrusk 15′#14 | 64 pk | 628 GP |
| Vitali Kravtsov 18′#9 | never stuck | 64 GP |
| Michael McLeod 16′#12 | 35 pk | 287 GP |
| Jack Roslovic 15′#25 | 58 pk | 595 GP |
| Nick Ritchie 14′#10 | 48 pk | 481 GP |
33. William Horcoff68% NHL · 2.4y
| Luke Kunin 16′#15 | 41 pk | 496 GP |
| Jonathan Dahlen 16′#42 | never stuck | 61 GP |
| Emile Poirier 13′#22 | never stuck | 8 GP |
| Jakub Vrana 14′#13 | 62 pk | 406 GP |
| Jayce Hawryluk 14′#32 | never stuck | 98 GP |
34. Vaclav Nestrasil65% NHL · 2.6y
| Jared McCann 14′#24 | 73 pk | 720 GP |
| Christian Fischer 15′#32 | 34 pk | 523 GP |
| Sonny Milano 14′#16 | 42 pk | 344 GP |
| Jayce Hawryluk 14′#32 | never stuck | 98 GP |
| Janne Kuokkanen 16′#43 | 41 pk | 119 GP |
37. Cullen Potter62% NHL · 2y
| Ivan Barbashev 14′#33 | 61 pk | 667 GP |
| Sam Steel 16′#30 | 41 pk | 491 GP |
| Joe Veleno 18′#30 | 29 pk | 367 GP |
| Maxime Comtois 17′#50 | 49 pk | 211 GP |
| Akil Thomas 18′#51 | never stuck | 32 GP |
48. Michael Hage65% NHL · 2.3y
| Morgan Frost 17′#27 | 47 pk | 392 GP |
| Jordan Kyrou 16′#35 | 83 pk | 488 GP |
| Max Domi 13′#12 | 72 pk | 815 GP |
| Brett Howden 16′#27 | 41 pk | 489 GP |
| Jeremy Bracco 15′#61 | never stuck | 0 GP |