Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
378	Emil Jarventie	F	MESTISPRO	21.4	PIT*	23′ #217	0.81	19.9	38%	1.5y @22.9	01255	20.8
1840	Riku Tohila	F	MESTISPRO	22.7	CHI*	22′ #199	0.29	7	5%	1.2y @23.9	0012	2.6

Who each prospect looks like

378. Emil Jarventie38% NHL · 1.5y

Sasha Chmelevski 17′#185	never stuck	24 GP
Ben Jones 17′#189	never stuck	56 GP
Andrew Mangiapane 15′#166	55 pk	560 GP
Ondrej Kase 14′#205	55 pk	258 GP
Sammy Blais 14′#176	53 pk	278 GP

1840. Riku Tohila5% NHL · 1.2y

Radel Fazleev 14′#168	never stuck	0 GP
Filip Helt 16′#211	never stuck	0 GP
Conner Bleackley 16′#144	never stuck	0 GP
Ty Ronning 16′#201	never stuck	0 GP
Chase Lang 14′#167	never stuck	0 GP