Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
3	Caleb Desnoyers★	F	LHJMQ	19.4	UTA	25′ #4	1.73	39.8	90%	0.7y @20.1	427095	62.5
17	Maddox Dagenais★	F	LHJMQ	18.4	STL*	26′ #16	1	23	82%	2.8y @21.2	294587	45.4
20	Egor Shilov★	F	LHJMQ	18.3	COL*	26′ #43	1.3	29.9	78%	3.1y @21.4	244687	44.5
25	Justin Carbonneau	F	LHJMQ	19.7	STL*	25′ #19	1.33	30.6	72%	2.4y @22.1	233565	38.2
44	Oleg Kulebiakin★	F	LHJMQ	18.6	TBL*	26′ #52	1.14	26.2	65%	3.2y @21.8	03468	34.1
51	Bill Zonnon	F	LHJMQ	19.9	PIT*	25′ #22	1.31	30.2	62%	2.5y @22.4	193562	33.7
66	Xavier Villeneuve	D	LHJMQ	18.9	CHI*	26′ #34	1.03	23.6	68%	2.2y @21.1	152964	32.1
67	Jayden Pominville★	F	LHJMQ	16.8	—	—	0.57	13.1	57%	5y @21.8	03183	32.1
78	Olivier Charron★	F	LHJMQ	16.9	—	—	0.54	12.3	55%	4.9y @21.8	03183	31.4
79	Alexis Joseph★	F	LHJMQ	17.2	—	—	1.11	25.5	60%	4.6y @21.8	03168	31.2
80	Benjamin Veitch★	F	LHJMQ	16.9	—	—	0.36	8.3	55%	4.9y @21.8	03283	31.1
121	Antoine Provencher	F	LHJMQ	17.1	—	—	0.29	6.8	53%	4.8y @21.9	03083	28.7
122	Frédéric Bergeron	F	LHJMQ	17.3	—	—	0.31	7.1	53%	4.6y @21.9	03083	28.7
126	Louis Felix Bourque	F	LHJMQ	18.1	OTT*	26′ #91	0.91	20.8	55%	3.8y @21.9	02968	28.6
147	Zakary Horvat-Edouard	F	LHJMQ	17.5	—	—	0.29	6.7	50%	4.4y @21.9	03083	28.2
148	Paulo Gualberto Jr.	F	LHJMQ	17.4	—	—	0.17	4	50%	4.5y @21.9	03083	28.2
149	Deryk Lemaire	F	LHJMQ	17.3	—	—	0.13	3	50%	4.6y @21.9	03083	28.2
153	Nolann Héroux	F	LHJMQ	17.4	—	—	0.33	7.7	47%	4.4y @21.8	02483	28.1
173	Louis-Étienne Halley	F	LHJMQ	17.6	—	—	0.33	7.7	47%	4.3y @21.9	02483	27.4
174	Alex Desruisseaux	F	LHJMQ	17.5	—	—	0.36	8.3	47%	4.4y @21.9	02483	27.4
176	Liam Armit	F	LHJMQ	17.6	—	—	0.35	8	50%	4.3y @21.9	01983	27.3
177	Liam Arsenault	F	LHJMQ	17.7	—	—	0.47	10.8	50%	4.2y @21.9	01983	27.3
186	Olivers Murnieks	F	LHJMQ	18.1	BUF*	26′ #124	0.65	14.8	47%	3.8y @21.9	01983	27
199	Matys St-Gelais	F	LHJMQ	17.5	—	—	0.13	3.1	47%	4.4y @21.9	0483	26.8
200	Cameron Haye	F	LHJMQ	17.6	—	—	0.17	4	47%	4.3y @21.9	0483	26.8
209	Declan Wotton	F	LHJMQ	17.3	—	—	0.21	4.9	50%	4.6y @21.9	01958	26.5
210	Zack Arsenault	F	LHJMQ	17.4	—	—	0.24	5.5	50%	4.5y @21.9	01958	26.5
213	Maxwell Branton	F	LHJMQ	17.4	—	—	0.09	2.1	45%	4.6y @22	0483	26.3
214	Loïk Gariépy	F	LHJMQ	17.2	—	—	0.5	11.5	47%	4.7y @21.9	01958	26.3
223	Evan Sercerchi	F	LHJMQ	17.5	—	—	0.07	1.6	45%	4.5y @22	0083	25.7
234	Ilya Kolmakov	F	LHJMQ	17.9	—	—	0.77	17.8	47%	4.1y @22	01958	25.1
247	Samuel Rheault	F	LHJMQ	17.8	—	—	0.48	11.1	45%	4.2y @22	0058	24.7
254	Louis-Félix Bourque	F	LHJMQ	18.1	—	—	0.91	20.8	47%	3.9y @22	01957	24.4
256	Rian Chudzinski	F	LHJMQ	18.6	ANA*	26′ #82	0.7	16.2	47%	3.5y @22.1	0357	24.3
257	Quinn Norman	D	LHJMQ	16.7	—	—	0.22	5.1	53%	5.4y @22.1	02255	24.3
265	Matthew Krayer	F	LHJMQ	17.8	—	—	0.22	5.1	45%	4.2y @22	0058	24.1
266	Éloi Bénard	F	LHJMQ	17.8	—	—	0.31	7.2	45%	4.2y @22	0058	24.1
273	Dylan Dumont	F	LHJMQ	18	BUF*	26′ #188	0.71	16.3	45%	4.1y @22.1	0057	23.7
300	Malik L'Italien	D	LHJMQ	17.2	—	—	0.38	8.6	53%	4.9y @22.1	02053	22.8
301	Thomas Charbonneau	D	LHJMQ	17.2	—	—	0.23	5.3	53%	4.9y @22.1	02053	22.8
313	Cameron Minella	D	LHJMQ	17	—	—	0.14	3.2	50%	5.3y @22.3	02053	22.4
314	Justin Beaulieu	D	LHJMQ	17.1	—	—	0.18	4.1	50%	5.2y @22.3	02053	22.4
321	Xavier Cormier	D	LHJMQ	17.7	—	—	0.4	9.3	53%	4.7y @22.4	02050	22.2
328	Alex Dagenais	F	LHJMQ	17.8	—	—	0.21	4.8	42%	4.3y @22.1	0057	22
335	Adam Klaus	F	LHJMQ	18.1	—	—	0.41	9.3	42%	4y @22.1	0057	21.9
336	Alex Massé	F	LHJMQ	18	—	—	0.22	5	42%	4.1y @22.1	0057	21.9
342	Chad Lygitsakos	F	LHJMQ	18.6	—	—	0.94	21.5	47%	4.2y @22.8	01552	21.7
343	Alexey Vlasov	F	LHJMQ	18.5	—	—	1.25	28.7	42%	3.8y @22.3	0357	21.7
351	Maxim Massé	F	LHJMQ	20.4	ANA*	24′ #66	1.62	37.2	45%	2.5y @22.9	01658	21.5
352	Filip Kovalcik	D	LHJMQ	17.6	—	—	0.32	7.3	50%	4.7y @22.3	01850	21.5
357	Romain Litalien	F	LHJMQ	18.4	—	—	0.9	20.8	45%	4.2y @22.6	0352	21.3
360	Lars Steiner	F	LHJMQ	18.8	STL*	26′ #171	1.25	28.7	40%	4y @22.8	0356	21.2
384	Filip Vlk	F	LHJMQ	18.1	—	—	0.25	5.8	40%	4.1y @22.2	0056	20.5
387	Benjamin Olivier	F	LHJMQ	18.1	—	—	0.48	10.9	40%	4.1y @22.2	0056	20.4
399	Thomas Rousseau	F	LHJMQ	18.5	—	—	0.87	19.9	42%	4.3y @22.8	0052	20.1
418	Dylan Laframboise	F	LHJMQ	18	—	—	0.14	3.2	40%	4.2y @22.2	0056	19.8
429	Jacob Hamel	D	LHJMQ	17.9	—	—	0.07	1.6	45%	4.9y @22.8	01649	19.5
430	Cohen Paquet	D	LHJMQ	17.7	—	—	0.05	1.2	45%	5.1y @22.8	01649	19.5
436	Mateo Nobert	F	LHJMQ	19	VGK*	25′ #85	1.26	28.9	40%	3.8y @22.8	0051	19.3
445	Olivier Boutin	F	LHJMQ	18	—	—	0.13	3	40%	4.4y @22.4	0056	19.1
450	Dylan Rozzi	F	LHJMQ	18.4	—	—	0.7	16.1	38%	4y @22.4	0052	19
451	Enzo Lottin	F	LHJMQ	18.5	—	—	0.86	19.7	40%	4.3y @22.8	0052	19
466	Gabe Smith	F	LHJMQ	20	UTA*	24′ #103	1.28	29.5	40%	3.6y @23.6	0049	18.6
475	Maxime Sauthier	F	LHJMQ	18.3	—	—	0.41	9.3	38%	4y @22.3	0052	18.4
476	Maxim Dubé	F	LHJMQ	18.2	—	—	0.52	12	38%	4.1y @22.3	0052	18.4
477	Daniel Walters	F	LHJMQ	18.4	—	—	0.48	10.9	38%	3.9y @22.3	0052	18.4
478	Nikita Ovcharov	F	LHJMQ	18.5	—	—	0.69	15.8	38%	4.3y @22.8	0052	18.4
479	Niko El Khouri	F	LHJMQ	18.3	—	—	0.25	5.8	38%	4y @22.3	0052	18.4
480	Jayden Plouffe	F	LHJMQ	18.6	—	—	0.7	16.1	38%	4.2y @22.8	0052	18.4
481	Martins Klaucans	F	LHJMQ	18.1	—	—	0.22	5.1	38%	4.2y @22.3	0052	18.4
487	Cooper Campbell	D	LHJMQ	17.9	—	—	0.2	4.6	42%	4.7y @22.6	01648	18.2
496	Jace Evans	F	LHJMQ	17.9	—	—	0.05	1.1	38%	4.5y @22.4	0052	17.7
517	Biagio Jr Daniele	D	LHJMQ	18.1	—	—	0.3	6.8	42%	4.7y @22.8	01645	17.3
521	Philippe Veilleux	F	LHJMQ	19.4	—	—	1.5	34.4	30%	3.5y @22.9	0056	17.2
534	Jude Herron	F	LHJMQ	18.3	—	—	0.31	7.1	35%	4.1y @22.4	0047	16.9
535	Spencer Thornborough	F	LHJMQ	18.2	—	—	0.05	1.1	38%	4.6y @22.8	0052	16.9
539	Nathan Quinn	F	LHJMQ	19	PHI*	25′ #164	1.26	28.9	33%	4y @23	0051	16.8
551	Brandon Delarosbil	D	LHJMQ	18.2	—	—	0.37	8.4	40%	4.6y @22.8	01545	16.4
555	Simon-Xavier Cyr	F	LHJMQ	18.4	—	—	0.34	7.9	35%	4.2y @22.6	0047	16.3
556	William Yared	F	LHJMQ	18.6	—	—	0.52	12	35%	4.2y @22.8	0046	16.3
562	Alex Huang	D	LHJMQ	19.1	NSH*	25′ #122	1.13	25.9	45%	2.9y @22	01151	16.2
563	William Bent	F	LHJMQ	18.4	—	—	0.3	6.8	35%	4.2y @22.6	0047	16.2
567	Nathan Brisson	F	LHJMQ	19.9	—	—	1.28	29.4	33%	3.6y @23.5	0051	16.1
580	Tommy Bleyl	D	LHJMQ	18.7	—	—	1.29	29.5	42%	3.7y @22.4	0845	15.8
588	Zakary Savoie	F	LHJMQ	18.3	—	—	0.1	2.3	33%	4.5y @22.8	0052	15.7
598	Émile Ricard	F	LHJMQ	18.8	—	—	0.73	16.7	33%	4.7y @23.5	0046	15.5
606	Vincent Desjardins	F	LHJMQ	19.9	—	—	1.22	28	30%	3.4y @23.3	0051	15.3
613	Maxime Dodier	D	LHJMQ	18.3	—	—	0.08	1.9	38%	4.6y @22.9	0944	15.2
622	Jacob Hartlin	F	LHJMQ	18.4	—	—	0.23	5.3	33%	4.4y @22.8	0046	15.1
623	Noah Florent	F	LHJMQ	18.4	—	—	0.2	4.6	33%	4.4y @22.8	0046	15.1
624	Lev Gaponov	F	LHJMQ	18.5	—	—	0.21	4.8	33%	4.3y @22.8	0047	15.1
625	Caylen Blake	F	LHJMQ	18.5	—	—	0.47	10.7	33%	4.3y @22.8	0046	15.1
626	Loïc Poirier	F	LHJMQ	18.5	—	—	0.34	7.9	33%	4.3y @22.8	0046	15.1
631	Alexandre Taillefer	D	LHJMQ	18.6	WPG*	26′ #135	0.61	13.9	38%	4.3y @22.9	0944	15
643	Derek Andrews	F	LHJMQ	18.4	—	—	0.18	4.2	30%	4.7y @23.1	0047	14.7
650	Teddy Mutryn	F	LHJMQ	19.5	SJS*	25′ #95	1.26	28.9	30%	3.6y @23.1	0044	14.5
664	Aiden Kirkwood	F	LHJMQ	18.4	—	—	0.17	3.8	30%	4.7y @23.1	0047	14.3
665	Anthony Dontigny	F	LHJMQ	18.4	—	—	0.23	5.3	33%	4.4y @22.8	0047	14.3
667	Liam Lefebvre	F	LHJMQ	19.3	LAK*	26′ #46	0.95	21.7	35%	3.8y @23.1	0041	14.2
670	Ross Campbell	F	LHJMQ	20.1	—	—	1.31	30.2	30%	3.5y @23.6	0036	14.1

Who each prospect looks like

3. Caleb Desnoyers90% NHL · 0.7y

Barrett Hayton 18′#5	46 pk	358 GP
Mitch Marner 15′#4	110 pk	738 GP
Bo Horvat 13′#9	90 pk	881 GP
Leon Draisaitl 14′#3	131 pk	855 GP
William Nylander 14′#8	100 pk	750 GP

17. Maddox Dagenais82% NHL · 2.8y

Liam Foudy 18′#18	19 pk	105 GP
Scott Laughton 12′#20	45 pk	745 GP
Eeli Tolvanen 17′#30	46 pk	423 GP
Casey Mittelstadt 17′#8	62 pk	509 GP
Alex Tuch 14′#18	88 pk	615 GP

20. Egor Shilov78% NHL · 3.1y

Daniel Sprong 15′#46	57 pk	374 GP
J.T. Compher 13′#35	52 pk	658 GP
Liam Foudy 18′#18	19 pk	105 GP
Curtis Lazar 13′#17	29 pk	617 GP
Joel Farabee 18′#14	57 pk	497 GP

25. Justin Carbonneau72% NHL · 2.4y

Luke Kunin 16′#15	41 pk	496 GP
Emile Poirier 13′#22	never stuck	8 GP
Jonathan Dahlen 16′#42	never stuck	61 GP
Jayce Hawryluk 14′#32	never stuck	98 GP
Jakub Vrana 14′#13	62 pk	406 GP

44. Oleg Kulebiakin65% NHL · 3.2y

Daniel Sprong 15′#46	57 pk	374 GP
Jake Guentzel 13′#77	91 pk	681 GP
J.T. Compher 13′#35	52 pk	658 GP
Jaret Anderson-Dolan 17′#41	27 pk	134 GP
Jarrod Maidens 12′#82	never stuck	0 GP

51. Bill Zonnon62% NHL · 2.5y

Nikita Scherbak 14′#26	never stuck	37 GP
Jake DeBrusk 15′#14	64 pk	628 GP
Joshua Ho-Sang 14′#28	never stuck	53 GP
Jesper Boqvist 17′#36	34 pk	387 GP
Kerby Rychel 13′#19	never stuck	43 GP

66. Xavier Villeneuve68% NHL · 2.2y

Henri Jokiharju 17′#29	30 pk	448 GP
Jordan Schmaltz 12′#25	never stuck	42 GP
Olli Maatta 12′#22	55 pk	804 GP
Erik Brannstrom 17′#15	36 pk	294 GP
Jeremy Roy 15′#31	never stuck	0 GP

67. Jayden Pominville57% NHL · 5y

Riley Barber 12′#167	never stuck	16 GP
Andrew Copp 13′#104	58 pk	779 GP
Stefan Matteau 12′#29	never stuck	92 GP
Jared Fiegl 14′#191	never stuck	0 GP
Nicolas Kerdiles 12′#36	never stuck	3 GP

78. Olivier Charron55% NHL · 4.9y

Andrew Copp 13′#104	58 pk	779 GP
Riley Barber 12′#167	never stuck	16 GP
Jared Fiegl 14′#191	never stuck	0 GP
Stefan Matteau 12′#29	never stuck	92 GP
Nicolas Kerdiles 12′#36	never stuck	3 GP

79. Alexis Joseph60% NHL · 4.6y

Riley Barber 12′#167	never stuck	16 GP
Andrew Copp 13′#104	58 pk	779 GP
Jared Fiegl 14′#191	never stuck	0 GP
Nicolas Kerdiles 12′#36	never stuck	3 GP
Alex Formenton 17′#47	33 pk	109 GP

80. Benjamin Veitch55% NHL · 4.9y

Riley Barber 12′#167	never stuck	16 GP
Andrew Copp 13′#104	58 pk	779 GP
Jared Fiegl 14′#191	never stuck	0 GP
Stefan Matteau 12′#29	never stuck	92 GP
Nicolas Kerdiles 12′#36	never stuck	3 GP

121. Antoine Provencher53% NHL · 4.8y

Riley Barber 12′#167	never stuck	16 GP
Jared Fiegl 14′#191	never stuck	0 GP
Andrew Copp 13′#104	58 pk	779 GP
Nicolas Kerdiles 12′#36	never stuck	3 GP
Stefan Matteau 12′#29	never stuck	92 GP