Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
36	Alexander Zharovsky	F	KHLPRO	19.5	MTL	25′ #34	0.71	44.9	70%	3.1y @22.6	183469	35.5
41	Egor Surin	F	KHLPRO	20.1	NSH	24′ #22	0.65	41	70%	2.5y @22.6	183469	34.4
62	Roman Kantserov	F	KHLPRO	21.9	CHI	23′ #44	1.02	64.1	53%	1.3y @23.2	03077	32.5
68	Matvei Korotky	F	KHLPRO	20.7	STL	24′ #211	0.63	39.6	68%	2.3y @23	213358	32.1
102	Yegor Borikov	F	KHLPRO	21	UTA*	25′ #110	0.51	32.1	62%	1.9y @22.9	83258	29.6
189	Mikhail Ilyin	F	KHLPRO	21.5	PIT	23′ #142	0.65	40.9	57%	1.6y @23.1	62951	26.8
280	Alexander Rykov	F	KHLPRO	21.1	CAR*	23′ #100	0.27	16.9	47%	1.7y @22.8	01858	23.5
348	Mikhail Fyodorov	F	KHLPRO	19.7	STL*	25′ #147	0.25	15.8	42%	3.1y @22.8	01558	21.6
388	Vadim Moroz	F	KHLPRO	22.7	ARI*	23′ #88	0.54	33.9	40%	1.5y @24.2	01951	20.4
401	Anton Silayev	D	KHLPRO	20.4	NJD	24′ #10	0.05	3.1	57%	2.4y @22.8	101942	20
503	Dmitri Buchelnikov	F	KHLPRO	23	DET*	22′ #52	0.57	35.9	33%	1.3y @24.3	0064	17.5
590	Daniil Orlov	D	KHLPRO	22.7	NJD*	22′ #110	0.42	26.8	40%	1.4y @24.1	01341	15.6
635	Timur Mukhanov	F	KHLPRO	21.2	CAR*	23′ #163	0.19	11.7	25%	1.6y @22.8	0055	14.9
653	Mikhail Gulyayev	D	KHLPRO	21.3	COL	23′ #31	0.06	3.5	50%	1.5y @22.8	01331	14.4
673	Prokhor Poltapov	F	KHLPRO	23.5	BUF*	21′ #33	0.59	37.1	28%	1y @24.5	0039	13.9
677	Yegor Rimashevskiy	F	KHLPRO	21.5	SJS*	23′ #203	0.2	12.4	25%	1.6y @23.1	0055	13.9
687	Alexander Siryatsky	D	KHLPRO	20	CAR*	24′ #124	0.14	8.5	42%	2.3y @22.3	01129	13.8
704	Ivan Patrikhayev	D	KHLPRO	20.5	NYR*	26′ #193	0.2	12.4	35%	2.2y @22.7	0731	13.4
707	Kirill Dolzhenkov	F	KHLPRO	22.3	CBJ*	22′ #109	0.26	16.6	28%	1.5y @23.8	0037	13.3
736	Stepan Gorbunov	F	KHLPRO	20	FLA*	24′ #169	0.07	4.4	28%	3.1y @23.1	0049	13
862	Arseni Koromyslov	D	KHLPRO	22.8	STL*	22′ #120	0.28	17.6	35%	2y @24.8	0029	11.2
884	Bogdan Konyushkov	D	KHLPRO	23.7	MTL*	23′ #110	0.57	35.8	25%	now @23.9	0037	11
911	Matvei Shuravin	D	KHLPRO	20.4	FLA*	24′ #97	0.05	3	40%	2.4y @22.8	0727	10.7
1022	Nikita Yevseyev	D	KHLPRO	22.3	EDM*	22′ #190	0.26	16.6	30%	2.6y @24.9	0026	9.1
1037	Fyodor Avramov	F	KHLPRO	20.8	CAR*	24′ #188	0.06	3.5	23%	2.5y @23.3	0028	9
1125	Nikita Ishimnikov	D	KHLPRO	21.3	COL*	23′ #155	0.08	5.1	25%	2.7y @24	0024	7.9
1832	Daniil Sobolev	D	KHLPRO	23.5	MTL*	21′ #142	0.08	4.9	10%	2.6y @26.1	0010	2.7

Who each prospect looks like

36. Alexander Zharovsky70% NHL · 3.1y

Jack Drury 18′#42	30 pk	268 GP
Jakub Vrana 14′#13	62 pk	406 GP
Jesper Boqvist 17′#36	34 pk	387 GP
Pavel Buchnevich 13′#75	87 pk	674 GP
Emil Bemstrom 17′#117	33 pk	242 GP

41. Egor Surin70% NHL · 2.5y

Jakub Vrana 14′#13	62 pk	406 GP
Jack Drury 18′#42	30 pk	268 GP
Jesper Boqvist 17′#36	34 pk	387 GP
Tyler Benson 16′#32	never stuck	38 GP
Artturi Lehkonen 13′#55	65 pk	660 GP

62. Roman Kantserov53% NHL · 1.3y

Kirill Kaprizov 15′#135	112 pk	397 GP
Pavel Buchnevich 13′#75	87 pk	674 GP
Ivan Morozov 18′#61	never stuck	0 GP
Jonathan Dahlen 16′#42	never stuck	61 GP
Nikolai Kovalenko 18′#171	never stuck	57 GP

68. Matvei Korotky68% NHL · 2.3y

Oskar Lindblom 14′#138	49 pk	337 GP
Emil Bemstrom 17′#117	33 pk	242 GP
Riley Damiani 18′#137	never stuck	7 GP
Alan Quine 13′#166	24 pk	106 GP
Lucas Wallmark 14′#97	31 pk	187 GP

102. Yegor Borikov62% NHL · 1.9y

Anton Slepyshev 13′#88	20 pk	102 GP
Emil Bemstrom 17′#117	33 pk	242 GP
Rudolfs Balcers 15′#142	34 pk	170 GP
Artturi Lehkonen 13′#55	65 pk	660 GP
Lucas Wallmark 14′#97	31 pk	187 GP

189. Mikhail Ilyin57% NHL · 1.6y

Riley Damiani 18′#137	never stuck	7 GP
Oskar Lindblom 14′#138	49 pk	337 GP
Jacob Peterson 17′#132	never stuck	83 GP
Pavel Buchnevich 13′#75	87 pk	674 GP
Lucas Wallmark 14′#97	31 pk	187 GP

280. Alexander Rykov47% NHL · 1.7y

Connor Bunnaman 16′#109	never stuck	54 GP
Allan McShane 18′#97	never stuck	0 GP
Nick Baptiste 13′#69	never stuck	47 GP
Cole Ully 13′#131	never stuck	0 GP
Austin Wagner 15′#99	28 pk	178 GP

348. Mikhail Fyodorov42% NHL · 3.1y

Maksim Sushko 17′#107	never stuck	2 GP
Taylor Leier 12′#117	never stuck	55 GP
Ondrej Kase 14′#205	55 pk	258 GP
Philipp Kurashev 18′#120	59 pk	360 GP
Beck Malenstyn 16′#145	21 pk	262 GP

388. Vadim Moroz40% NHL · 1.5y

Mattias Janmark 13′#79	38 pk	680 GP
Adam Mascherin 18′#100	never stuck	0 GP
Aleksi Saarela 15′#89	never stuck	9 GP
Jacob Peterson 17′#132	never stuck	83 GP
Filip Ahl 15′#109	never stuck	0 GP

401. Anton Silayev57% NHL · 2.4y

Jakub Zboril 15′#13	never stuck	76 GP
Timothy Liljegren 17′#17	34 pk	311 GP
Urho Vaakanainen 17′#18	27 pk	221 GP
Hampus Lindholm 12′#6	54 pk	829 GP
Haydn Fleury 14′#7	26 pk	345 GP

503. Dmitri Buchelnikov33% NHL · 1.3y

Taylor Raddysh 16′#58	39 pk	373 GP
Adam Mascherin 18′#100	never stuck	0 GP
Mattias Janmark 13′#79	38 pk	680 GP
Kirill Marchenko 18′#49	77 pk	292 GP
Boris Katchouk 16′#44	23 pk	179 GP

590. Daniil Orlov40% NHL · 1.4y

Colin Miller 12′#151	41 pk	590 GP
Veeti Vainio 15′#141	never stuck	0 GP
Devon Toews 14′#108	71 pk	541 GP
Christian Djoos 12′#195	25 pk	155 GP
Brandon Montour 14′#55	75 pk	665 GP