Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
43	Trevor Connelly	F	AHLPRO	20.5	VGK	24′ #19	1.07	38.4	70%	2.1y @22.6	183369	34.1
47	Matvei Gridin	F	AHLPRO	20.5	CGY	24′ #28	0.81	29.3	70%	2.1y @22.6	183368	33.8
53	Ilya Protas	F	AHLPRO	20.1	WSH	24′ #75	0.96	34.5	68%	2.7y @22.8	183365	33.3
63	Konsta Helenius	F	AHLPRO	20.3	BUF	24′ #14	1	36.1	62%	2.3y @22.6	93069	32.3
74	Quentin Musty	F	AHLPRO	21.1	SJS*	23′ #26	0.74	26.6	68%	1.6y @22.7	183069	31.5
82	Igor Chernyshov	F	AHLPRO	20.7	SJS*	24′ #33	0.8	29	68%	2.1y @22.8	183264	31
92	Gabe Perreault	F	AHLPRO	21.3	NYR	23′ #23	0.85	30.7	65%	1.5y @22.8	63065	30.4
94	Bradly Nadeau	F	AHLPRO	21.3	CAR*	23′ #30	1.08	38.9	68%	1.7y @23	183264	30.1
97	Nick Lardis	F	AHLPRO	21.1	CHI	23′ #67	0.91	33	68%	1.8y @22.9	183258	30
101	Michael Brandsegg-Nygård	F	AHLPRO	20.9	DET*	24′ #15	0.73	26.5	62%	1.7y @22.6	92965	29.6
107	Gracyn Sawchyn	F	AHLPRO	21.6	FLA*	23′ #63	0.66	23.7	68%	1.7y @23.3	183353	29.2
117	Tanner Howe	F	AHLPRO	20.7	PIT*	24′ #46	0.59	21.4	57%	1.7y @22.4	42565	28.8
127	Jonathan Lekkerimäki	F	AHLPRO	22.1	VAN	22′ #15	0.95	34.4	65%	1y @23.1	03064	28.5
128	Felix Unger Sörum	F	AHLPRO	20.9	—	—	0.92	33.1	55%	2y @22.9	73158	28.5
150	Jani Nyman	F	AHLPRO	22.1	SEA*	22′ #49	0.85	30.5	60%	1y @23.1	03065	28.1
151	Conor Geekie	F	AHLPRO	22.3	TBL	22′ #11	1.04	37.3	60%	0.8y @23.1	02964	28.1
154	Oscar Fisker Molgaard	F	AHLPRO	21.5	SEA*	23′ #52	0.69	25	62%	1.6y @23.1	153253	28.1
178	Anton Wahlberg	F	AHLPRO	21.1	ANA	23′ #39	0.54	19.6	62%	1.7y @22.8	122955	27.2
181	Andrew Cristall	F	AHLPRO	21.5	WSH*	23′ #40	0.83	30.1	62%	1.6y @23.1	63153	27.1
204	Rutger McGroarty	F	AHLPRO	22.4	WPG*	22′ #14	1.13	40.9	55%	0.8y @23.2	02864	26.6
215	Otto Stenberg	F	AHLPRO	21.2	STL*	23′ #25	0.47	17	60%	1.3y @22.5	02561	26.2
224	Eduard Sale	F	AHLPRO	21.4	SEA	23′ #20	0.47	16.8	62%	1.2y @22.6	02755	25.7
225	Daniil But	F	AHLPRO	21.5	UTA	23′ #12	0.95	34.3	57%	1.6y @23.1	42762	25.6
232	Oscar Fisker Mølgaard	F	AHLPRO	21.5	—	—	0.69	25	50%	1.6y @23.1	02755	25.1
237	Joakim Kemell	F	AHLPRO	22.3	NSH*	22′ #17	0.6	21.8	60%	1y @23.3	02753	24.9
239	Carter Yakemchuk	D	AHLPRO	20.9	OTT	24′ #7	0.74	26.7	62%	1.9y @22.8	132652	24.9
240	Kasper Halttunen	F	AHLPRO	21.2	SJS*	23′ #36	0.51	18.3	57%	1.6y @22.8	02555	24.9
241	David Edstrom	F	AHLPRO	21.5	VGK*	23′ #32	0.42	15	57%	1.4y @22.9	02555	24.8
248	Ethan Gauthier	F	AHLPRO	21.6	TBL*	23′ #37	0.48	17.4	60%	1.3y @22.9	02555	24.6
270	Juraj Pekarcik	F	AHLPRO	20.9	STL*	23′ #76	0.51	18.3	50%	1.8y @22.7	02559	23.9
275	Lenni Hämeenaho	F	AHLPRO	21.8	—	—	0.7	25.4	45%	1.3y @23.1	02355	23.6
281	Ivan Miroshnichenko	F	AHLPRO	22.5	WSH	22′ #20	0.83	29.9	57%	0.8y @23.3	02743	23.4
285	Isaac Howard	F	AHLPRO	22.4	TBL*	22′ #31	1.06	38.4	47%	0.7y @23.1	02353	23.1
290	Ivan Ryabkin	F	AHLPRO	19.3	CAR*	25′ #62	0.32	11.6	50%	3.1y @22.4	01861	22.9
291	Luca Pinelli	F	AHLPRO	21.4	CBJ*	23′ #114	0.68	24.4	53%	1.7y @23.1	02553	22.9
317	Luca Del Bel Belluz	F	AHLPRO	22.8	CBJ*	22′ #44	1.05	38	42%	1.1y @23.9	02365	22.3
318	Denver Barkey	F	AHLPRO	21.3	PHI	23′ #95	0.62	22.2	50%	1.8y @23.1	02453	22.3
319	Colby Barlow	F	AHLPRO	21.5	WPG*	23′ #18	0.25	8.9	57%	1.4y @22.9	02046	22.3
344	Jagger Firkus	F	AHLPRO	22.3	SEA	22′ #35	0.89	32.1	50%	0.8y @23.1	02442	21.6
355	Matthew Poitras	F	AHLPRO	22.4	BOS*	22′ #54	0.64	23	53%	1.2y @23.6	02438	21.3
356	Brayden Yager	F	AHLPRO	21.6	PIT*	23′ #14	0.44	15.9	53%	1.3y @22.9	02053	21.3
372	Filip Bystedt	F	AHLPRO	22.5	SJS	22′ #27	0.92	33.3	47%	0.7y @23.2	02342	20.9
376	Oliver Bonk	D	AHLPRO	21.6	PHI	23′ #22	0.41	14.9	60%	1.2y @22.8	82244	20.8
394	Stian Solberg	D	AHLPRO	20.6	ANA	24′ #23	0.34	12.2	60%	2.1y @22.7	101942	20.1
403	Eduard Šalé	F	AHLPRO	21.4	—	—	0.47	16.8	33%	1.4y @22.8	01255	20
404	Hunter Haight	F	AHLPRO	22.4	MIN	22′ #47	0.59	21.4	50%	1.4y @23.8	01837	20
408	Cam Lund	F	AHLPRO	22.2	—	—	0.68	24.4	33%	1.5y @23.7	01553	19.9
421	Ben Hemmerling	F	AHLPRO	22.3	VGK*	22′ #177	0.74	26.5	35%	1.1y @23.4	01951	19.7
422	Tanner Molendyk	D	AHLPRO	21.5	NSH*	23′ #24	0.38	13.8	55%	1.3y @22.8	01844	19.6
431	Braeden Bowman	F	AHLPRO	23.2	VGK	—	1.3	46.9	28%	1.3y @24.5	0056	19.3
437	Sam Rinzel	D	AHLPRO	22.2	CHI	22′ #25	0.61	22	45%	1y @23.2	01645	19.2
439	Koehn Ziemmer	F	AHLPRO	21.7	LAK*	23′ #78	0.42	15.2	40%	1.1y @22.8	01258	19.1
453	David Reinbacher	D	AHLPRO	21.8	MTL	23′ #5	0.42	15.2	53%	1y @22.8	01842	18.9
460	Riley Heidt	F	AHLPRO	21.4	MIN*	23′ #64	0.35	12.7	45%	1.4y @22.8	01555	18.7
462	Dominik Badinka	D	AHLPRO	20.7	CAR*	24′ #34	0.21	7.4	57%	2y @22.7	01834	18.6
463	Alex Suzdalev	F	AHLPRO	22.5	—	—	0.59	21.1	33%	1.2y @23.7	01253	18.6
464	Kalan Lind	F	AHLPRO	21.6	NSH*	23′ #46	0.31	11.1	53%	1.4y @23	01637	18.6
465	Dmitri Simashev	D	AHLPRO	21.5	UTA	—	0.88	31.6	47%	2.4y @23.9	01352	18.6
486	Owen Beck	F	AHLPRO	22.5	MTL	22′ #33	0.57	20.5	47%	1.3y @23.8	01837	18.2
488	Aleksanteri Kaskimaki	F	AHLPRO	22.5	STL*	22′ #73	0.69	24.8	47%	1.1y @23.6	01638	18.1
490	Kevin Korchinski	D	AHLPRO	22.2	CHI	22′ #7	0.49	17.7	45%	0.6y @22.8	01642	18
491	Alexander Suzdalev	F	AHLPRO	22.5	WSH*	22′ #70	0.59	21.1	40%	1.3y @23.8	01937	17.9
497	Nathan Gaucher	F	AHLPRO	22.8	ANA	22′ #22	0.47	16.9	45%	0.8y @23.6	01637	17.6
504	Dans Locmelis	F	AHLPRO	22.6	BOS*	22′ #119	0.65	23.5	35%	1.5y @24.1	01237	17.5
514	Luca Cagnoni	D	AHLPRO	21.7	SJS*	23′ #123	0.64	23.2	45%	1.6y @23.3	01344	17.3
518	Tyson Jugnauth	D	AHLPRO	22.3	SEA*	22′ #100	0.62	22.6	40%	1.7y @24	01344	17.2
519	Nico Myatovic	F	AHLPRO	21.7	ANA	23′ #33	0.27	9.7	47%	1.3y @23	01237	17.2
522	Ty Nelson	D	AHLPRO	22.4	SEA*	22′ #68	0.56	20	35%	1.4y @23.8	01352	17.1
523	Aleksanteri Kaskimäki	F	AHLPRO	22.5	—	—	0.69	24.8	30%	1.3y @23.8	0051	17.1
527	Leon Muggli	D	AHLPRO	20.1	WSH*	24′ #52	0.26	9.4	53%	2.4y @22.5	01832	17
530	Joey Willis	F	AHLPRO	21.4	NSH*	23′ #111	0.39	14.2	35%	1.4y @22.8	0958	16.9
565	Ville Koivunen	F	AHLPRO	23.2	PIT	21′ #51	1.21	43.5	25%	0.7y @23.9	0064	16.1
569	Carson Rehkopf	F	AHLPRO	21.6	SEA*	23′ #50	0.28	9.9	42%	1.6y @23.2	01237	16
572	Noel Nordh	F	AHLPRO	21.6	ARI*	23′ #72	0.35	12.6	38%	1.2y @22.8	0446	15.9
575	Reid Schaefer	F	AHLPRO	22.9	EDM*	22′ #32	0.85	30.6	35%	1.6y @24.5	0039	15.8
584	Matthew Seminoff	F	AHLPRO	22.6	DAL*	22′ #179	0.69	25.1	28%	1.2y @23.8	0048	15.7
585	Matyas Sapovaliv	F	AHLPRO	22.5	VGK*	22′ #48	0.49	17.5	38%	1.2y @23.7	01237	15.7
586	Sandis Vilmanis	F	AHLPRO	22.6	FLA*	22′ #157	0.79	28.6	28%	1.1y @23.7	0038	15.7
594	Aydar Suniev	F	AHLPRO	21.8	CGY	23′ #80	0.42	15.2	33%	1.5y @23.3	01037	15.5
599	Brad Lambert	F	AHLPRO	22.7	WPG*	22′ #30	0.38	13.8	40%	0.9y @23.6	01037	15.4
605	Luca Marrelli	D	AHLPRO	20.9	CBJ*	24′ #86	0.5	18	45%	1.6y @22.5	01331	15.3
608	Yegor Sidorov	F	AHLPRO	22.2	ANA*	23′ #85	0.43	15.4	35%	1.2y @23.4	01037	15.2
629	Ondrej Becher	F	AHLPRO	22.5	DET*	24′ #80	0.47	16.8	35%	1.1y @23.6	01237	15
633	Gavin Hayes	F	AHLPRO	22.3	CHI*	22′ #66	0.46	16.5	35%	1.2y @23.5	0437	14.9
636	Theo Lindstein	D	AHLPRO	21.6	STL*	23′ #29	0.24	8.6	50%	1.2y @22.8	01432	14.8
638	Artem Duda	D	AHLPRO	22.4	ARI*	22′ #36	0.48	17.4	33%	1.1y @23.5	01332	14.7
639	Tuomas Uronen	F	AHLPRO	21.4	VGK*	23′ #192	0.35	12.7	25%	1.4y @22.8	0055	14.7
646	Adam Sýkora	F	AHLPRO	21.9	NYR	—	0.47	16.9	25%	1y @22.9	0055	14.6
651	Zachary L'Heureux	F	AHLPRO	23.3	COL	21′ #27	0.93	33.7	30%	1.1y @24.4	0039	14.4
652	Alex Bump	F	AHLPRO	22.7	PHI	22′ #133	0.72	26.1	25%	1.2y @23.9	0038	14.4
666	Carey Terrance	F	AHLPRO	21.3	ANA*	23′ #59	0.25	9	38%	1.6y @22.9	0037	14.2
671	Tristan Bertucci	D	AHLPRO	21.1	DAL*	23′ #61	0.38	13.7	45%	1.7y @22.8	01329	14
680	Matyas Melovsky	F	AHLPRO	22.2	NJD*	24′ #171	0.47	17.1	23%	1y @23.2	0048	13.8
681	Owen Pickering	D	AHLPRO	22.6	PIT*	22′ #21	0.41	14.9	35%	0.7y @23.3	01132	13.8
697	Oasiz Wiesblatt	F	AHLPRO	22.4	—	—	0.46	16.7	23%	0.8y @23.2	0048	13.4
699	Eriks Mateiko	F	AHLPRO	20.8	WSH*	24′ #90	0.22	8	33%	1.8y @22.6	0055	13.4
706	Jakub Brabenec	F	AHLPRO	22.9	VGK*	21′ #102	0.5	18	28%	1.2y @24.1	0033	13.3
708	Nikita Prishchepov	F	AHLPRO	22.5	COL*	24′ #217	0.55	19.7	23%	0.7y @23.2	0048	13.3
709	Rasmus Kumpulainen	F	AHLPRO	21	MIN*	23′ #53	0.1	3.8	35%	1.9y @22.9	0046	13.3
710	Tristan Luneau	D	AHLPRO	22.6	ANA*	22′ #53	0.59	21.1	28%	1.3y @23.9	0041	13.3

Who each prospect looks like

43. Trevor Connelly70% NHL · 2.1y

Jack Drury 18′#42	30 pk	268 GP
Jesper Boqvist 17′#36	34 pk	387 GP
Tyler Benson 16′#32	never stuck	38 GP
Jakub Vrana 14′#13	62 pk	406 GP
Tanner Pearson 12′#30	53 pk	778 GP

47. Matvei Gridin70% NHL · 2.1y

Jesper Boqvist 17′#36	34 pk	387 GP
Tanner Pearson 12′#30	53 pk	778 GP
Jack Drury 18′#42	30 pk	268 GP
Eetu Luostarinen 17′#42	43 pk	447 GP
Vladislav Kamenev 14′#42	never stuck	66 GP

53. Ilya Protas68% NHL · 2.7y

Emil Bemstrom 17′#117	33 pk	242 GP
Jack Drury 18′#42	30 pk	268 GP
Lucas Wallmark 14′#97	31 pk	187 GP
Artturi Lehkonen 13′#55	65 pk	660 GP
Carl Grundstrom 16′#57	27 pk	339 GP

63. Konsta Helenius62% NHL · 2.3y

Jakub Vrana 14′#13	62 pk	406 GP
Jesper Boqvist 17′#36	34 pk	387 GP
Jack Drury 18′#42	30 pk	268 GP
Jake DeBrusk 15′#14	64 pk	628 GP
Tyler Benson 16′#32	never stuck	38 GP

74. Quentin Musty68% NHL · 1.6y

Tanner Pearson 12′#30	53 pk	778 GP
Mitchell Stephens 15′#33	18 pk	123 GP
Jake DeBrusk 15′#14	64 pk	628 GP
Jesper Boqvist 17′#36	34 pk	387 GP
Eetu Luostarinen 17′#42	43 pk	447 GP

82. Igor Chernyshov68% NHL · 2.1y

Tanner Pearson 12′#30	53 pk	778 GP
Jesper Boqvist 17′#36	34 pk	387 GP
Eetu Luostarinen 17′#42	43 pk	447 GP
Mitchell Stephens 15′#33	18 pk	123 GP
Jack Drury 18′#42	30 pk	268 GP

92. Gabe Perreault65% NHL · 1.5y

Mitchell Stephens 15′#33	18 pk	123 GP
Tanner Pearson 12′#30	53 pk	778 GP
Jesper Boqvist 17′#36	34 pk	387 GP
Nick Sorensen 13′#45	never stuck	5 GP
Artturi Lehkonen 13′#55	65 pk	660 GP

94. Bradly Nadeau68% NHL · 1.7y

Jesper Boqvist 17′#36	34 pk	387 GP
Tyler Benson 16′#32	never stuck	38 GP
Jack Drury 18′#42	30 pk	268 GP
Artturi Lehkonen 13′#55	65 pk	660 GP
Jonatan Berggren 18′#33	36 pk	205 GP

97. Nick Lardis68% NHL · 1.8y

Artturi Lehkonen 13′#55	65 pk	660 GP
Carl Grundstrom 16′#57	27 pk	339 GP
Anton Slepyshev 13′#88	20 pk	102 GP
Nick Sorensen 13′#45	never stuck	5 GP
Jesper Boqvist 17′#36	34 pk	387 GP

101. Michael Brandsegg-Nygård62% NHL · 1.7y

Jake DeBrusk 15′#14	64 pk	628 GP
Tanner Pearson 12′#30	53 pk	778 GP
Grigori Denisenko 18′#15	never stuck	33 GP
Mitchell Stephens 15′#33	18 pk	123 GP
Jesper Boqvist 17′#36	34 pk	387 GP

107. Gracyn Sawchyn68% NHL · 1.7y

Brendan Leipsic 12′#89	33 pk	187 GP
Michael Amadio 14′#90	35 pk	522 GP
Sven Andrighetto 13′#86	36 pk	216 GP
Kevin Stenlund 15′#58	28 pk	368 GP
Semyon Der-Arguchintsev 18′#76	never stuck	1 GP

117. Tanner Howe57% NHL · 1.7y

Filip Hallander 18′#58	never stuck	16 GP
Jesse Ylonen 18′#35	35 pk	111 GP
Bo Groulx 18′#54	never stuck	78 GP
Adam Erne 13′#33	36 pk	424 GP
Nick Baptiste 13′#69	never stuck	47 GP