Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
64	Jack Hextall	F	USHL	18.4	CGY	26′ #30	0.98	19.3	62%	3.4y @21.8	03168	31.6
96	Blake Zielinski	F	USHL	18.5	LAK*	26′ #80	1.04	20.4	55%	3.4y @21.9	02983	29.4
99	Victor Plante	F	USHL	18.4	DET*	26′ #47	0.9	17.7	57%	3.5y @21.9	02962	29.2
113	Casey Mutryn	F	USHL	18.1	SEA*	26′ #38	0.64	12.6	55%	3.7y @21.8	02968	28.7
151	Cooper Soller	F	USHL	18	TBL*	26′ #154	0.79	15.6	50%	3.9y @21.9	02483	27.8
210	Rudolfs Berzkalns	F	USHL	18.5	EDM*	26′ #58	0.52	10.2	47%	3.5y @22	0383	25.8
259	Mason West	F	USHL	19	CHI	25′ #29	0.66	12.9	50%	3y @22	01568	23.7
282	Michael Berchild	F	USHL	18.5	CAR*	26′ #105	0.9	17.8	45%	3.7y @22.2	0356	22.4
369	Evan Jardine	F	USHL	18.8	CBJ*	26′ #121	1.15	22.7	38%	4y @22.8	0056	19.2
514	Parker Trottier	F	USHL	18.5	MTL*	26′ #189	0.58	11.5	33%	4.3y @22.8	0046	15.1
619	Landon Hafele	F	USHL	18.9	WPG*	26′ #167	0.81	15.9	28%	4.6y @23.5	0046	12.3
622	Justin Graf	F	USHL	19.1	NSH*	26′ #118	1.06	20.8	23%	3.7y @22.8	0046	12.2
672	Carter Sanderson	F	USHL	18.9	PIT*	25′ #169	0.63	12.4	23%	5y @23.9	0046	10.8
754	Cooper Simpson	F	USHL	19.5	BOS*	25′ #79	1.21	23.9	25%	3.6y @23.1	0038	8.7
785	Melvin Novotny	F	USHL	19.4	BUF*	25′ #195	1.19	23.4	15%	3.2y @22.6	0044	7.8
893	Jackson Crowder	F	USHL	19.3	WSH*	25′ #155	1.02	20.1	12%	3.8y @23.1	0020	6.6
968	Zach Wooten	F	USHL	20.5	WPG*	26′ #116	1.02	20	10%	3.4y @23.9	0020	5.4
1005	Viktor Norringer	F	USHL	20	NSH*	24′ #127	1.02	20.1	10%	2y @22	0021	5
1011	Ryan Rucinski	F	USHL	19.7	BUF*	25′ #219	1.05	20.7	10%	3y @22.7	000	4.9
1135	David Rozsival	F	USHL	19.2	NJD*	25′ #161	0.65	12.8	10%	6y @25.2	000	3.8
1162	William Samuelsson	F	USHL	20.9	DAL*	24′ #222	0.46	9	7%	4y @24.9	0012	3.6
1163	Connor Davis	F	USHL	19.8	VAN*	26′ #129	0.93	18.3	7%	2.5y @22.3	000	3.6
1164	William Tomko	F	USHL	19.8	SEA*	26′ #204	1.02	20	7%	2.5y @22.3	000	3.6
1203	Brent Solomon	F	USHL	19.6	DET*	25′ #109	0.98	19.3	10%	3.5y @23.1	000	3.3
1350	Ashton Schultz	F	USHL	19.9	BUF*	25′ #167	0.69	13.5	5%	3.7y @23.6	000	1.6

Who each prospect looks like

64. Jack Hextall62% NHL · 3.4y

J.T. Compher 13′#35	52 pk	658 GP
Scott Laughton 12′#20	45 pk	745 GP
Colin White 15′#21	47 pk	323 GP
Isac Lundeström 18′#23	30 pk	405 GP
Eeli Tolvanen 17′#30	46 pk	423 GP

96. Blake Zielinski55% NHL · 3.4y

Jarrod Maidens 12′#82	never stuck	0 GP
Jake Guentzel 13′#77	91 pk	681 GP
J.T. Compher 13′#35	52 pk	658 GP
Ivan Morozov 18′#61	never stuck	0 GP
Eeli Tolvanen 17′#30	46 pk	423 GP

99. Victor Plante57% NHL · 3.5y

Jarrod Maidens 12′#82	never stuck	0 GP
Ivan Morozov 18′#61	never stuck	0 GP
Eeli Tolvanen 17′#30	46 pk	423 GP
J.T. Compher 13′#35	52 pk	658 GP
Scott Laughton 12′#20	45 pk	745 GP

113. Casey Mutryn55% NHL · 3.7y

Ivan Morozov 18′#61	never stuck	0 GP
Alex Formenton 17′#47	33 pk	109 GP
Thomas Di Pauli 12′#100	never stuck	2 GP
Scott Laughton 12′#20	45 pk	745 GP
Eeli Tolvanen 17′#30	46 pk	423 GP

151. Cooper Soller50% NHL · 3.9y

Thomas Di Pauli 12′#100	never stuck	2 GP
Tyler Motte 13′#121	34 pk	455 GP
Jarrod Maidens 12′#82	never stuck	0 GP
Ivan Morozov 18′#61	never stuck	0 GP
Hudson Fasching 13′#118	32 pk	175 GP

210. Rudolfs Berzkalns47% NHL · 3.5y

Ivan Morozov 18′#61	never stuck	0 GP
Thomas Di Pauli 12′#100	never stuck	2 GP
Tyler Motte 13′#121	34 pk	455 GP
Jarrod Maidens 12′#82	never stuck	0 GP
Shane Eiserman 14′#100	never stuck	0 GP

259. Mason West50% NHL · 3y

Fabian Zetterlund 17′#63	46 pk	329 GP
Isac Lundeström 18′#23	30 pk	405 GP
Connor Hurley 13′#38	never stuck	0 GP
Alexander Volkov 17′#48	never stuck	46 GP
Joni Ikonen 17′#58	never stuck	0 GP

282. Michael Berchild45% NHL · 3.7y

Jarrod Maidens 12′#82	never stuck	0 GP
Shane Eiserman 14′#100	never stuck	0 GP
Luke Johnson 13′#134	never stuck	32 GP
Jake Guentzel 13′#77	91 pk	681 GP
Ivan Morozov 18′#61	never stuck	0 GP

369. Evan Jardine38% NHL · 4y

Jake Guentzel 13′#77	91 pk	681 GP
Luke Johnson 13′#134	never stuck	32 GP
Jonne Tammela 15′#118	never stuck	0 GP
Shane Eiserman 14′#100	never stuck	0 GP
Jarrod Maidens 12′#82	never stuck	0 GP

514. Parker Trottier33% NHL · 4.3y

Tyler Motte 13′#121	34 pk	455 GP
Thomas Di Pauli 12′#100	never stuck	2 GP
Quentin Shore 13′#168	never stuck	0 GP
Ivan Morozov 18′#61	never stuck	0 GP
Luke Johnson 13′#134	never stuck	32 GP

619. Landon Hafele28% NHL · 4.6y

Luke Johnson 13′#134	never stuck	32 GP
Jonne Tammela 15′#118	never stuck	0 GP
Matthew Deblouw 12′#186	never stuck	0 GP
Shane Eiserman 14′#100	never stuck	0 GP
Jesper Bratt 16′#162	89 pk	634 GP

622. Justin Graf23% NHL · 3.7y

William Lockwood 16′#64	never stuck	54 GP
Jonne Tammela 15′#118	never stuck	0 GP
John McCarron 12′#153	never stuck	0 GP
Luke Johnson 13′#134	never stuck	32 GP
Frederik Tiffels 15′#167	never stuck	0 GP