Prospect Rankings
Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.
Org:AllANAARIBOSBUFCARCBJCGYCHICOLDALDETEDMFLALAKMINMTLNJDNSHNYINYROTTPHIPITSEASJSSTLTBLTORUTAVANVGKWPGWSH
How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.
Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.
| # | Player | Pos | League | Age | Org | Draft | P/GP | NHLe | P(NHL) | ETA | Upside band | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Caleb Malhotra★ | F | OHL | 18.2 | VAN* | 26′ #3 | 1.25 | 30.8 | 97% | 1.5y @19.7 | 4562105 | 65.6 |
| 4 | Jake O'Brien★ | F | OHL | 19.2 | SEA* | 25′ #8 | 1.75 | 43.2 | 90% | 1y @20.2 | 417095 | 62.5 |
| 6 | Nikita Klepov★ | F | OHL | 18.1 | ANA | 26′ #15 | 1.45 | 35.6 | 93% | 2.1y @20.2 | 435794 | 59 |
| 11 | Adam Novotny★ | F | OHL | 18.8 | VAN | 26′ #24 | 1.12 | 27.6 | 88% | 2.4y @21.2 | 314687 | 48.3 |
| 13 | Brady Martin★ | F | OHL | 19.4 | NSH | 25′ #5 | 1 | 24.6 | 78% | 1.4y @20.8 | 294383 | 46.1 |
| 15 | Ethan Belchetz★ | F | OHL | 18.4 | UTA* | 26′ #17 | 1.04 | 25.5 | 82% | 2.8y @21.2 | 294687 | 45.6 |
| 17 | Ryan Roobroeck★ | F | OHL | 18.9 | CHI* | 26′ #35 | 1.18 | 29.1 | 80% | 2.1y @21 | 244285 | 45 |
| 21 | Jack Nesbitt | F | OHL | 19.6 | PHI | 25′ #12 | 1.05 | 25.9 | 72% | 2.2y @21.8 | 273971 | 41 |
| 23 | Brooks Rogowski★ | F | OHL | 18.2 | VAN* | 26′ #33 | 0.91 | 22.5 | 72% | 3.6y @21.8 | 193583 | 38 |
| 25 | Cameron Reid | F | OHL | 19.4 | NSH* | 25′ #21 | 0.98 | 24.2 | 70% | 2.6y @22 | 193573 | 37.6 |
| 29 | Jett Luchanko | F | OHL | 20 | PHI | 24′ #13 | 1.22 | 30.1 | 65% | 2.4y @22.4 | 203465 | 35.5 |
| 42 | Jaxon Cover | F | OHL | 18.5 | OTT* | 26′ #32 | 0.78 | 19.1 | 65% | 3.3y @21.8 | 03468 | 33.7 |
| 43 | Ryder Cali★ | F | OHL | 18 | FLA* | 26′ #48 | 0.77 | 18.8 | 60% | 3.8y @21.8 | 03283 | 33.7 |
| 50 | Pierce Mbuyi | F | OHL | 18.3 | PIT* | 26′ #86 | 1.1 | 27.1 | 65% | 3.6y @21.9 | 03368 | 32.9 |
| 52 | Cole Beaudoin | F | OHL | 20.3 | UTA* | 24′ #24 | 1.65 | 40.5 | 62% | 2.5y @22.8 | 122983 | 32.5 |
| 61 | Tyler Cooper★ | F | OHL | 16.7 | — | — | 0.37 | 9 | 57% | 5.1y @21.8 | 03283 | 31.9 |
| 73 | Adam Benak | F | OHL | 19.4 | MIN* | 25′ #102 | 1.6 | 39.5 | 55% | 2.7y @22.1 | 02973 | 31 |
| 74 | Ryerson Edgar★ | F | OHL | 17.1 | — | — | 0.77 | 18.8 | 57% | 4.7y @21.8 | 03168 | 30.9 |
| 77 | Cam Warren | F | OHL | 17.3 | — | — | 0.5 | 12.3 | 53% | 4.5y @21.8 | 03088 | 30.8 |
| 78 | Eamon Edgar★ | F | OHL | 16.8 | — | — | 0.33 | 8 | 53% | 5y @21.8 | 03083 | 30.6 |
| 79 | Ryan Hanrahan★ | F | OHL | 16.8 | — | — | 0.26 | 6.4 | 53% | 5y @21.8 | 03083 | 30.6 |
| 85 | Thomas Vandenberg | F | OHL | 17.9 | LAK* | 26′ #103 | 0.85 | 20.8 | 57% | 3.9y @21.8 | 03068 | 30.1 |
| 93 | Dimian Zhilkin | F | OHL | 17.8 | — | — | 1.27 | 31.3 | 57% | 4y @21.8 | 03068 | 29.4 |
| 101 | Sawyer Schmidt | F | OHL | 16.6 | — | — | 0.08 | 2 | 53% | 5.2y @21.8 | 03068 | 28.9 |
| 102 | Brenner Lammens | F | OHL | 16.9 | — | — | 0.31 | 7.5 | 53% | 4.9y @21.8 | 03068 | 28.9 |
| 108 | Jax Pereira | F | OHL | 17.3 | — | — | 0.27 | 6.7 | 53% | 4.6y @21.9 | 03083 | 28.7 |
| 118 | Aleks Kulemin | F | OHL | 17.4 | — | — | 0.54 | 13.4 | 50% | 4.5y @21.9 | 02483 | 28.5 |
| 119 | Noah Laus | F | OHL | 17.5 | — | — | 0.43 | 10.5 | 50% | 4.4y @21.9 | 02483 | 28.5 |
| 132 | Sam Roberts | F | OHL | 17.2 | — | — | 0.16 | 4 | 50% | 4.7y @21.9 | 03083 | 28.2 |
| 146 | John McLaughlin | F | OHL | 17 | — | — | 0.32 | 7.9 | 50% | 4.9y @21.9 | 02468 | 28 |
| 147 | Max Delisle | F | OHL | 17.1 | — | — | 0.23 | 5.6 | 50% | 4.8y @21.9 | 01983 | 27.9 |
| 148 | Landon Jackman | F | OHL | 17.2 | — | — | 0.24 | 5.8 | 50% | 4.7y @21.9 | 01983 | 27.9 |
| 149 | Gerry DiCunzolo | F | OHL | 17.2 | — | — | 0.23 | 5.7 | 50% | 4.7y @21.9 | 01983 | 27.9 |
| 156 | Jeremy Freeman | F | OHL | 17.1 | — | — | 0.25 | 6 | 47% | 4.8y @21.9 | 01983 | 27.4 |
| 157 | Charlie Murata | F | OHL | 17.5 | — | — | 0.31 | 7.5 | 47% | 4.4y @21.9 | 02483 | 27.4 |
| 158 | Jaakko Wycisk | F | OHL | 17.4 | — | — | 0.72 | 17.6 | 53% | 4.4y @21.8 | 02958 | 27.4 |
| 159 | Ryan Kaczynski | F | OHL | 17.1 | — | — | 0.21 | 5.2 | 47% | 4.8y @21.9 | 01983 | 27.4 |
| 168 | Simon Belohorsky | F | OHL | 17.8 | — | — | 0.38 | 9.4 | 50% | 4.1y @21.9 | 01983 | 27.2 |
| 171 | Emil Hemming | F | OHL | 20.1 | DAL* | 24′ #29 | 1.37 | 33.7 | 57% | 2.8y @22.9 | 02561 | 27.1 |
| 172 | Adam Levac | F | OHL | 18.1 | DET* | 26′ #108 | 0.73 | 18 | 50% | 3.8y @21.9 | 02483 | 27.1 |
| 173 | Alessandro Di Iorio | F | OHL | 18.4 | CBJ* | 26′ #94 | 0.69 | 16.9 | 50% | 3.7y @22.1 | 02483 | 27.1 |
| 178 | Mark Pape | F | OHL | 17.6 | — | — | 0.15 | 3.7 | 47% | 4.3y @21.9 | 0483 | 26.8 |
| 179 | Blake Munnings | F | OHL | 17.6 | — | — | 0.12 | 3 | 47% | 4.3y @21.9 | 0483 | 26.8 |
| 180 | Brayden Bennett | F | OHL | 17.5 | — | — | 0.2 | 5 | 47% | 4.4y @21.9 | 0483 | 26.8 |
| 181 | Max Brocklehurst | F | OHL | 17.6 | — | — | 0.19 | 4.6 | 47% | 4.3y @21.9 | 0483 | 26.8 |
| 190 | Brock Chitaroni | F | OHL | 17.6 | — | — | 0.4 | 9.8 | 50% | 4.3y @21.9 | 02458 | 26.7 |
| 193 | Easton Walos | F | OHL | 17.6 | — | — | 0.71 | 17.4 | 50% | 4.3y @21.9 | 02458 | 26.6 |
| 194 | Jake Murray | F | OHL | 17.5 | — | — | 0.18 | 4.4 | 50% | 4.4y @21.9 | 01958 | 26.5 |
| 195 | Gensen Geldart | F | OHL | 17.3 | — | — | 0.2 | 4.9 | 50% | 4.6y @21.9 | 01958 | 26.5 |
| 199 | Keaton Ardagh | F | OHL | 17.1 | — | — | 0.39 | 9.6 | 47% | 4.8y @21.9 | 01958 | 26.3 |
| 200 | Nolan Snyder | F | OHL | 17.4 | — | — | 0.49 | 11.9 | 47% | 4.5y @21.9 | 01958 | 26.3 |
| 206 | Kaden McGregor | F | OHL | 17.6 | — | — | 0.51 | 12.6 | 47% | 4.3y @21.9 | 01958 | 25.9 |
| 207 | Alexander Bilecki | F | OHL | 18.3 | TOR* | 26′ #60 | 0.44 | 10.8 | 47% | 3.7y @22 | 0383 | 25.8 |
| 214 | Adam Nemec | F | OHL | 18.8 | OTT* | 26′ #72 | 1.13 | 27.8 | 53% | 3.1y @21.9 | 02364 | 25.6 |
| 229 | Ryder Carey | F | OHL | 18 | — | — | 0.51 | 12.5 | 45% | 4y @22 | 0058 | 24.7 |
| 235 | Jonah McCormick | F | OHL | 17.9 | — | — | 0.11 | 2.7 | 45% | 4.1y @22 | 0058 | 24.6 |
| 237 | Alex McLean | F | OHL | 18 | — | — | 0.76 | 18.7 | 45% | 3.9y @21.9 | 0358 | 24.5 |
| 245 | Anthony Figliomeni | F | OHL | 17.9 | — | — | 0.24 | 5.8 | 45% | 4.1y @22 | 0058 | 24.1 |
| 267 | Marek Vanacker | F | OHL | 20.4 | CHI* | 24′ #27 | 1.37 | 33.6 | 47% | 2.4y @22.8 | 02049 | 23.2 |
| 268 | Jean-Cristoph Lemieux | F | OHL | 18.2 | — | — | 0.69 | 16.9 | 42% | 3.9y @22.1 | 0057 | 23.2 |
| 278 | Ulysses Lombardi | F | OHL | 18.1 | — | — | 0.59 | 14.6 | 42% | 4y @22.1 | 0057 | 22.6 |
| 290 | Juraj Rausa | F | OHL | 17.9 | — | — | 0.1 | 2.5 | 42% | 4.2y @22.1 | 0057 | 22 |
| 295 | Nikolas Rossetto | F | OHL | 18 | — | — | 0.18 | 4.5 | 42% | 4.1y @22.1 | 0057 | 21.9 |
| 320 | Brody Najim | F | OHL | 18.1 | — | — | 0.1 | 2.5 | 42% | 4.2y @22.3 | 0056 | 20.9 |
| 325 | Beckham Edwards | F | OHL | 18.6 | DET* | 26′ #143 | 0.7 | 17.3 | 42% | 3.8y @22.4 | 0052 | 20.6 |
| 328 | Nicholas Desiderio | F | OHL | 18.2 | — | — | 0.23 | 5.8 | 40% | 4y @22.2 | 0056 | 20.5 |
| 330 | Brody Pepoy | F | OHL | 18.3 | TOR* | 26′ #169 | 0.43 | 10.6 | 40% | 3.9y @22.2 | 0056 | 20.4 |
| 347 | Joe Salandra | F | OHL | 18.5 | — | — | 0.64 | 15.8 | 42% | 4.3y @22.8 | 0052 | 19.9 |
| 349 | Troy Patton | F | OHL | 18.2 | — | — | 0.37 | 9.1 | 40% | 4y @22.2 | 0056 | 19.8 |
| 350 | Adam Kelly | F | OHL | 17.9 | — | — | 0.24 | 5.9 | 40% | 4.3y @22.2 | 0056 | 19.8 |
| 351 | Chase Gaughan | F | OHL | 18.1 | — | — | 0.2 | 5 | 40% | 4.1y @22.2 | 0056 | 19.8 |
| 360 | Carter Stevens | F | OHL | 18.6 | STL* | 26′ #150 | 0.68 | 16.7 | 40% | 4y @22.6 | 0052 | 19.5 |
| 361 | Cole Zurawski | F | OHL | 18.5 | FLA* | 26′ #181 | 0.73 | 18 | 40% | 4.1y @22.6 | 0052 | 19.5 |
| 362 | Henry Doucet | F | OHL | 18 | — | — | 0.04 | 1.1 | 38% | 4.3y @22.3 | 0056 | 19.5 |
| 364 | Nolan Buttar | F | OHL | 18.2 | — | — | 0.31 | 7.5 | 38% | 4.1y @22.3 | 0056 | 19.3 |
| 371 | Nathan Amidovski | F | OHL | 18.4 | — | — | 0.57 | 14.1 | 38% | 3.9y @22.3 | 0052 | 19.1 |
| 372 | Braidy Wassilyn | F | OHL | 18.2 | — | — | 0.75 | 18.4 | 38% | 4.1y @22.3 | 0052 | 19.1 |
| 373 | Evgeny Dubrovtsev | F | OHL | 18.4 | — | — | 0.56 | 13.7 | 38% | 3.9y @22.3 | 0052 | 19.1 |
| 374 | Ethan Garden | F | OHL | 18.4 | — | — | 0.63 | 15.5 | 38% | 3.9y @22.3 | 0052 | 19.1 |
| 377 | Yanis Lutz | F | OHL | 18.3 | — | — | 0.55 | 13.5 | 38% | 4y @22.3 | 0052 | 19 |
| 378 | Beksultan Makysh | F | OHL | 18.2 | — | — | 0.57 | 14.1 | 38% | 4.1y @22.3 | 0052 | 19 |
| 385 | Jaxon Williams | F | OHL | 18.1 | — | — | 0.16 | 4 | 40% | 4.3y @22.4 | 0052 | 18.8 |
| 397 | Layne Gallacher | F | OHL | 18.5 | — | — | 0.57 | 14 | 38% | 4.3y @22.8 | 0052 | 18.4 |
| 398 | Ryland Cunningham | F | OHL | 18.1 | — | — | 0.21 | 5.2 | 38% | 4.2y @22.3 | 0052 | 18.4 |
| 399 | Parker Vaughan | F | OHL | 18.5 | — | — | 0.49 | 11.9 | 38% | 3.8y @22.3 | 0052 | 18.4 |
| 400 | Colin Fitzgerald | F | OHL | 18.4 | STL* | 26′ #203 | 0.53 | 13 | 38% | 3.9y @22.3 | 0052 | 18.4 |
| 411 | Adam Novotný | F | OHL | 18.8 | — | — | 1.12 | 27.6 | 33% | 4y @22.8 | 0056 | 18.3 |
| 417 | Caden Harvey | F | OHL | 18.5 | EDM* | 26′ #180 | 0.5 | 12.3 | 40% | 4.1y @22.6 | 0047 | 17.8 |
| 422 | Ryan Brown | F | OHL | 18.8 | DAL* | 26′ #155 | 0.85 | 20.9 | 38% | 4y @22.8 | 0052 | 17.6 |
| 429 | Kayden Edwards | F | OHL | 18.3 | — | — | 0.32 | 7.9 | 38% | 4.1y @22.4 | 0047 | 17.4 |
| 430 | Max Crete | F | OHL | 18.3 | — | — | 0.24 | 5.9 | 38% | 4.1y @22.4 | 0047 | 17.4 |
| 431 | Tobias Zvolensky | F | OHL | 18.4 | — | — | 0.24 | 5.8 | 38% | 4y @22.4 | 0047 | 17.4 |
| 435 | Jacob Monks | F | OHL | 18.3 | — | — | 0.05 | 1.3 | 35% | 4.1y @22.4 | 0056 | 17.3 |
| 445 | Kase Kamzik | F | OHL | 18.3 | — | — | 0.21 | 5.2 | 38% | 4.5y @22.8 | 0052 | 16.9 |
| 454 | Xavier Tessier | F | OHL | 18.3 | — | — | 0.22 | 5.3 | 33% | 4y @22.3 | 0046 | 16.6 |
| 455 | Liam Greentree | F | OHL | 20.6 | LAK* | 24′ #26 | 1.42 | 35 | 40% | 2.3y @22.9 | 0641 | 16.6 |
| 461 | Tyler Challenger | F | OHL | 18.4 | — | — | 0.22 | 5.4 | 35% | 4.2y @22.6 | 0046 | 16.2 |
| 462 | Brady Smith | F | OHL | 18.4 | — | — | 0.26 | 6.3 | 35% | 4.2y @22.6 | 0046 | 16.2 |
| 463 | Avry Anstis | F | OHL | 18.5 | — | — | 0.32 | 7.9 | 35% | 4.1y @22.6 | 0047 | 16.2 |
| 464 | Ethan Dean | F | OHL | 18.4 | — | — | 0.22 | 5.5 | 35% | 4.2y @22.6 | 0047 | 16.2 |
Who each prospect looks like
2. Caleb Malhotra97% NHL · 1.5y
| Clayton Keller 16′#7 | 91 pk | 683 GP |
| Sam Bennett 14′#4 | 63 pk | 767 GP |
| Alex Nylander 16′#8 | 53 pk | 126 GP |
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi 18′#3 | 43 pk | 518 GP |
| Patrik Laine 16′#2 | 82 pk | 537 GP |
4. Jake O'Brien90% NHL · 1y
| Barrett Hayton 18′#5 | 46 pk | 358 GP |
| Gabriel Vilardi 17′#11 | 70 pk | 352 GP |
| Robert Thomas 17′#20 | 95 pk | 530 GP |
| Mathew Barzal 15′#16 | 85 pk | 611 GP |
| Mitch Marner 15′#4 | 110 pk | 738 GP |
6. Nikita Klepov93% NHL · 2.1y
| Clayton Keller 16′#7 | 91 pk | 683 GP |
| Alex Nylander 16′#8 | 53 pk | 126 GP |
| Mikhail Grigorenko 12′#12 | 31 pk | 249 GP |
| Joel Farabee 18′#14 | 57 pk | 497 GP |
| Curtis Lazar 13′#17 | 29 pk | 617 GP |
11. Adam Novotny88% NHL · 2.4y
| Liam Foudy 18′#18 | 19 pk | 105 GP |
| Curtis Lazar 13′#17 | 29 pk | 617 GP |
| Hunter Shinkaruk 13′#24 | never stuck | 15 GP |
| Joel Farabee 18′#14 | 57 pk | 497 GP |
| Jaret Anderson-Dolan 17′#41 | 27 pk | 134 GP |
13. Brady Martin78% NHL · 1.4y
| William Nylander 14′#8 | 100 pk | 750 GP |
| Jake Virtanen 14′#6 | 43 pk | 317 GP |
| Michael McLeod 16′#12 | 35 pk | 287 GP |
| Vitali Kravtsov 18′#9 | never stuck | 64 GP |
| Bo Horvat 13′#9 | 90 pk | 881 GP |
15. Ethan Belchetz82% NHL · 2.8y
| Liam Foudy 18′#18 | 19 pk | 105 GP |
| Curtis Lazar 13′#17 | 29 pk | 617 GP |
| Dylan Larkin 14′#15 | 83 pk | 808 GP |
| Eeli Tolvanen 17′#30 | 46 pk | 423 GP |
| Scott Laughton 12′#20 | 45 pk | 745 GP |
17. Ryan Roobroeck80% NHL · 2.1y
| Jaret Anderson-Dolan 17′#41 | 27 pk | 134 GP |
| Hunter Shinkaruk 13′#24 | never stuck | 15 GP |
| Nikolay Goldobin 14′#27 | 35 pk | 125 GP |
| Jake Guentzel 13′#77 | 91 pk | 681 GP |
| Janne Kuokkanen 16′#43 | 41 pk | 119 GP |
21. Jack Nesbitt72% NHL · 2.2y
| Jake DeBrusk 15′#14 | 64 pk | 628 GP |
| Michael McLeod 16′#12 | 35 pk | 287 GP |
| Jack Roslovic 15′#25 | 58 pk | 595 GP |
| Vitali Kravtsov 18′#9 | never stuck | 64 GP |
| Ryan Poehling 17′#25 | 39 pk | 358 GP |
23. Brooks Rogowski72% NHL · 3.6y
| J.T. Compher 13′#35 | 52 pk | 658 GP |
| Scott Laughton 12′#20 | 45 pk | 745 GP |
| Eeli Tolvanen 17′#30 | 46 pk | 423 GP |
| Daniel Sprong 15′#46 | 57 pk | 374 GP |
| Alex Tuch 14′#18 | 88 pk | 615 GP |
25. Cameron Reid70% NHL · 2.6y
| Josh Norris 17′#19 | 68 pk | 283 GP |
| Jack Roslovic 15′#25 | 58 pk | 595 GP |
| Janne Kuokkanen 16′#43 | 41 pk | 119 GP |
| Rasmus Asplund 16′#33 | 32 pk | 189 GP |
| Michael McLeod 16′#12 | 35 pk | 287 GP |
29. Jett Luchanko65% NHL · 2.4y
| Jake DeBrusk 15′#14 | 64 pk | 628 GP |
| Joshua Ho-Sang 14′#28 | never stuck | 53 GP |
| Jesper Boqvist 17′#36 | 34 pk | 387 GP |
| Nikita Scherbak 14′#26 | never stuck | 37 GP |
| Jonatan Berggren 18′#33 | 36 pk | 205 GP |
42. Jaxon Cover65% NHL · 3.3y
| Isac Lundeström 18′#23 | 30 pk | 405 GP |
| Scott Laughton 12′#20 | 45 pk | 745 GP |
| J.T. Compher 13′#35 | 52 pk | 658 GP |
| Colin White 15′#21 | 47 pk | 323 GP |
| Eeli Tolvanen 17′#30 | 46 pk | 423 GP |