Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
51	Alan Shaikhlislamov★	F	MHL	18	CGY*	26′ #55	1.13	16.7	60%	3.8y @21.8	03283	32.6
95	Gleb Pugachyov	F	MHL	18.4	MTL	26′ #26	0.73	10.7	57%	3.4y @21.8	03068	29.4
150	Matvei Kotkov	F	MHL	18	BOS*	26′ #104	0.86	12.7	50%	3.9y @21.9	02483	27.8
526	Lavr Gashilov	F	MHL	18.9	NJD*	26′ #119	1.35	20	30%	3.9y @22.8	0046	14.6
592	Artyom Matyuk	F	MHL	18.8	NYI*	26′ #173	0.72	10.7	30%	5.2y @24	0046	12.9
665	Dmitri Isayev	F	MHL	19.2	OTT*	25′ #149	1.39	20.5	20%	3.6y @22.8	0046	11
1024	Ilya Pautov	F	MHL	20.3	PHI*	24′ #173	0.77	11.3	12%	2.7y @23	0020	4.7
1197	Yan Matveiko	F	MHL	20	CGY*	25′ #211	0.74	10.9	7%	3.2y @23.2	000	3.4
1383	Alexander Plesovskikh	F	MHL	20.1	TOR*	24′ #152	0.96	14.2	0%	—	000	1.1
1412	Kirill Yemelyanov	F	MHL	19.6	BOS*	25′ #165	1.04	15.3	0%	—	000	0

Who each prospect looks like

51. Alan Shaikhlislamov60% NHL · 3.8y

Alex Formenton 17′#47	33 pk	109 GP
Nicolas Kerdiles 12′#36	never stuck	3 GP
Ivan Morozov 18′#61	never stuck	0 GP
Eeli Tolvanen 17′#30	46 pk	423 GP
Jarrod Maidens 12′#82	never stuck	0 GP

95. Gleb Pugachyov57% NHL · 3.4y

Ivan Morozov 18′#61	never stuck	0 GP
Isac Lundeström 18′#23	30 pk	405 GP
Colin White 15′#21	47 pk	323 GP
Scott Laughton 12′#20	45 pk	745 GP
Martin Necas 17′#12	105 pk	519 GP

150. Matvei Kotkov50% NHL · 3.9y

Hudson Fasching 13′#118	32 pk	175 GP
Thomas Di Pauli 12′#100	never stuck	2 GP
Alex Formenton 17′#47	33 pk	109 GP
Ivan Morozov 18′#61	never stuck	0 GP
Riley Barber 12′#167	never stuck	16 GP

526. Lavr Gashilov30% NHL · 3.9y

Jonne Tammela 15′#118	never stuck	0 GP
Luke Johnson 13′#134	never stuck	32 GP
Jesper Bratt 16′#162	89 pk	634 GP
Jake Guentzel 13′#77	91 pk	681 GP
Aidan Muir 13′#113	never stuck	0 GP

592. Artyom Matyuk30% NHL · 5.2y

Matthew Deblouw 12′#186	never stuck	0 GP
Luke Johnson 13′#134	never stuck	32 GP
Jonne Tammela 15′#118	never stuck	0 GP
Shane Eiserman 14′#100	never stuck	0 GP
Jesper Bratt 16′#162	89 pk	634 GP

665. Dmitri Isayev20% NHL · 3.6y

John McCarron 12′#153	never stuck	0 GP
Brian Pinho 13′#174	never stuck	2 GP
Jonne Tammela 15′#118	never stuck	0 GP
Luke Johnson 13′#134	never stuck	32 GP
Frederik Tiffels 15′#167	never stuck	0 GP

1024. Ilya Pautov12% NHL · 2.7y

Markus Soberg 13′#165	never stuck	0 GP
Miguel Fidler 14′#143	never stuck	0 GP
Colton Hargrove 12′#205	never stuck	0 GP
Marcus Vela 15′#190	never stuck	0 GP
Ryan Lohin 16′#208	never stuck	0 GP

1197. Yan Matveiko7% NHL · 3.2y

Kristian Roykas Marthinsen 17′#213	never stuck	0 GP
Judd Peterson 12′#204	never stuck	0 GP
Olle Lycksell 17′#168	never stuck	52 GP
Bokondji Imama 15′#180	never stuck	33 GP
Lauri Pajuniemi 18′#132	never stuck	0 GP

1383. Alexander Plesovskikh0% NHL · —

Vincent Dunn 13′#138	never stuck	0 GP
Jacob Peterson 17′#132	never stuck	83 GP
Kristian Roykas Marthinsen 17′#213	never stuck	0 GP
Christopher Wilkie 15′#162	never stuck	0 GP
Brent Pedersen 13′#126	never stuck	0 GP

1412. Kirill Yemelyanov0% NHL · —

Steven Spinner 14′#159	never stuck	0 GP
Liam Kirk 18′#189	never stuck	0 GP
Artur Gavrus 12′#180	never stuck	0 GP
Cristiano Digiacinto 14′#170	never stuck	0 GP
Cody Payne 12′#145	never stuck	0 GP