Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
3	Caleb Desnoyers★	F	LHJMQ	19.4	UTA	25′ #4	1.73	39.8	90%	0.7y @20.1	427095	62.5
16	Maddox Dagenais★	F	LHJMQ	18.4	STL*	26′ #16	1	23	82%	2.8y @21.2	294587	45.4
19	Egor Shilov★	F	LHJMQ	18.3	COL*	26′ #43	1.3	29.9	78%	3.1y @21.4	244687	44.5
22	Justin Carbonneau	F	LHJMQ	19.7	STL*	25′ #19	1.33	30.6	72%	2.4y @22.1	233565	38.2
37	Oleg Kulebiakin★	F	LHJMQ	18.6	TBL*	26′ #52	1.14	26.2	65%	3.2y @21.8	03468	34.1
44	Bill Zonnon	F	LHJMQ	19.9	PIT*	25′ #22	1.31	30.2	62%	2.5y @22.4	193562	33.7
58	Jayden Pominville★	F	LHJMQ	16.8	—	—	0.57	13.1	57%	5y @21.8	03183	32.1
68	Olivier Charron★	F	LHJMQ	16.9	—	—	0.54	12.3	55%	4.9y @21.8	03183	31.4
69	Alexis Joseph★	F	LHJMQ	17.2	—	—	1.11	25.5	60%	4.6y @21.8	03168	31.2
70	Benjamin Veitch★	F	LHJMQ	16.9	—	—	0.36	8.3	55%	4.9y @21.8	03283	31.1
111	Antoine Provencher	F	LHJMQ	17.1	—	—	0.29	6.8	53%	4.8y @21.9	03083	28.7
112	Frédéric Bergeron	F	LHJMQ	17.3	—	—	0.31	7.1	53%	4.6y @21.9	03083	28.7
115	Louis Felix Bourque	F	LHJMQ	18.1	OTT*	26′ #91	0.91	20.8	55%	3.8y @21.9	02968	28.6
136	Zakary Horvat-Edouard	F	LHJMQ	17.5	—	—	0.29	6.7	50%	4.4y @21.9	03083	28.2
137	Paulo Gualberto Jr.	F	LHJMQ	17.4	—	—	0.17	4	50%	4.5y @21.9	03083	28.2
138	Deryk Lemaire	F	LHJMQ	17.3	—	—	0.13	3	50%	4.6y @21.9	03083	28.2
142	Nolann Héroux	F	LHJMQ	17.4	—	—	0.33	7.7	47%	4.4y @21.8	02483	28.1
162	Louis-Étienne Halley	F	LHJMQ	17.6	—	—	0.33	7.7	47%	4.3y @21.9	02483	27.4
163	Alex Desruisseaux	F	LHJMQ	17.5	—	—	0.36	8.3	47%	4.4y @21.9	02483	27.4
165	Liam Armit	F	LHJMQ	17.6	—	—	0.35	8	50%	4.3y @21.9	01983	27.3
166	Liam Arsenault	F	LHJMQ	17.7	—	—	0.47	10.8	50%	4.2y @21.9	01983	27.3
175	Olivers Murnieks	F	LHJMQ	18.1	BUF*	26′ #124	0.65	14.8	47%	3.8y @21.9	01983	27
187	Matys St-Gelais	F	LHJMQ	17.5	—	—	0.13	3.1	47%	4.4y @21.9	0483	26.8
188	Cameron Haye	F	LHJMQ	17.6	—	—	0.17	4	47%	4.3y @21.9	0483	26.8
197	Declan Wotton	F	LHJMQ	17.3	—	—	0.21	4.9	50%	4.6y @21.9	01958	26.5
198	Zack Arsenault	F	LHJMQ	17.4	—	—	0.24	5.5	50%	4.5y @21.9	01958	26.5
201	Maxwell Branton	F	LHJMQ	17.4	—	—	0.09	2.1	45%	4.6y @22	0483	26.3
202	Loïk Gariépy	F	LHJMQ	17.2	—	—	0.5	11.5	47%	4.7y @21.9	01958	26.3
211	Evan Sercerchi	F	LHJMQ	17.5	—	—	0.07	1.6	45%	4.5y @22	0083	25.7
221	Ilya Kolmakov	F	LHJMQ	17.9	—	—	0.77	17.8	47%	4.1y @22	01958	25.1
233	Samuel Rheault	F	LHJMQ	17.8	—	—	0.48	11.1	45%	4.2y @22	0058	24.7
240	Louis-Félix Bourque	F	LHJMQ	18.1	—	—	0.91	20.8	47%	3.9y @22	01957	24.4
242	Rian Chudzinski	F	LHJMQ	18.6	ANA*	26′ #82	0.7	16.2	47%	3.5y @22.1	0357	24.3
250	Matthew Krayer	F	LHJMQ	17.8	—	—	0.22	5.1	45%	4.2y @22	0058	24.1
251	Éloi Bénard	F	LHJMQ	17.8	—	—	0.31	7.2	45%	4.2y @22	0058	24.1
258	Dylan Dumont	F	LHJMQ	18	BUF*	26′ #188	0.71	16.3	45%	4.1y @22.1	0057	23.7
293	Alex Dagenais	F	LHJMQ	17.8	—	—	0.21	4.8	42%	4.3y @22.1	0057	22
300	Adam Klaus	F	LHJMQ	18.1	—	—	0.41	9.3	42%	4y @22.1	0057	21.9
301	Alex Massé	F	LHJMQ	18	—	—	0.22	5	42%	4.1y @22.1	0057	21.9
304	Chad Lygitsakos	F	LHJMQ	18.6	—	—	0.94	21.5	47%	4.2y @22.8	01552	21.7
305	Alexey Vlasov	F	LHJMQ	18.5	—	—	1.25	28.7	42%	3.8y @22.3	0357	21.7
310	Maxim Massé	F	LHJMQ	20.4	ANA*	24′ #66	1.62	37.2	45%	2.5y @22.9	01658	21.5
314	Romain Litalien	F	LHJMQ	18.4	—	—	0.9	20.8	45%	4.2y @22.6	0352	21.3
315	Lars Steiner	F	LHJMQ	18.8	STL*	26′ #171	1.25	28.7	40%	4y @22.8	0356	21.2
329	Filip Vlk	F	LHJMQ	18.1	—	—	0.25	5.8	40%	4.1y @22.2	0056	20.5
332	Benjamin Olivier	F	LHJMQ	18.1	—	—	0.48	10.9	40%	4.1y @22.2	0056	20.4
339	Thomas Rousseau	F	LHJMQ	18.5	—	—	0.87	19.9	42%	4.3y @22.8	0052	20.1
356	Dylan Laframboise	F	LHJMQ	18	—	—	0.14	3.2	40%	4.2y @22.2	0056	19.8
368	Mateo Nobert	F	LHJMQ	19	VGK*	25′ #85	1.26	28.9	40%	3.8y @22.8	0051	19.3
376	Olivier Boutin	F	LHJMQ	18	—	—	0.13	3	40%	4.4y @22.4	0056	19.1
381	Dylan Rozzi	F	LHJMQ	18.5	—	—	0.7	16.1	38%	3.9y @22.4	0052	19
382	Enzo Lottin	F	LHJMQ	18.5	—	—	0.86	19.7	40%	4.3y @22.8	0052	19
394	Gabe Smith	F	LHJMQ	20	UTA*	24′ #103	1.28	29.5	40%	3.6y @23.6	0049	18.6
402	Maxime Sauthier	F	LHJMQ	18.3	—	—	0.41	9.3	38%	4y @22.3	0052	18.4
403	Maxim Dubé	F	LHJMQ	18.2	—	—	0.52	12	38%	4.1y @22.3	0052	18.4
404	Daniel Walters	F	LHJMQ	18.4	—	—	0.48	10.9	38%	3.9y @22.3	0052	18.4
405	Nikita Ovcharov	F	LHJMQ	18.5	—	—	0.69	15.8	38%	4.3y @22.8	0052	18.4
406	Niko El Khouri	F	LHJMQ	18.3	—	—	0.25	5.8	38%	4y @22.3	0052	18.4
407	Jayden Plouffe	F	LHJMQ	18.6	—	—	0.7	16.1	38%	4.2y @22.8	0052	18.4
408	Martins Klaucans	F	LHJMQ	18.1	—	—	0.22	5.1	38%	4.2y @22.3	0052	18.4
420	Jace Evans	F	LHJMQ	17.9	—	—	0.05	1.1	38%	4.5y @22.4	0052	17.7
438	Philippe Veilleux	F	LHJMQ	19.4	—	—	1.5	34.4	30%	3.5y @22.9	0056	17.2
447	Jude Herron	F	LHJMQ	18.3	—	—	0.31	7.1	35%	4.1y @22.4	0047	16.9
448	Spencer Thornborough	F	LHJMQ	18.2	—	—	0.05	1.1	38%	4.6y @22.8	0052	16.9
451	Nathan Quinn	F	LHJMQ	19	PHI*	25′ #164	1.26	28.9	33%	4y @23	0051	16.8
459	Simon-Xavier Cyr	F	LHJMQ	18.4	—	—	0.34	7.9	35%	4.2y @22.6	0047	16.3
460	William Yared	F	LHJMQ	18.6	—	—	0.52	12	35%	4.2y @22.8	0046	16.3
466	William Bent	F	LHJMQ	18.4	—	—	0.3	6.8	35%	4.2y @22.6	0047	16.2
470	Nathan Brisson	F	LHJMQ	19.9	—	—	1.28	29.4	33%	3.6y @23.5	0051	16.1
484	Zakary Savoie	F	LHJMQ	18.3	—	—	0.1	2.3	33%	4.5y @22.8	0052	15.7
492	Émile Ricard	F	LHJMQ	18.8	—	—	0.73	16.7	33%	4.7y @23.5	0046	15.5
499	Vincent Desjardins	F	LHJMQ	19.9	—	—	1.22	28	30%	3.4y @23.3	0051	15.3
509	Jacob Hartlin	F	LHJMQ	18.4	—	—	0.23	5.3	33%	4.4y @22.8	0046	15.1
510	Noah Florent	F	LHJMQ	18.4	—	—	0.2	4.6	33%	4.4y @22.8	0046	15.1
511	Lev Gaponov	F	LHJMQ	18.5	—	—	0.21	4.8	33%	4.3y @22.8	0047	15.1
512	Caylen Blake	F	LHJMQ	18.5	—	—	0.47	10.7	33%	4.3y @22.8	0046	15.1
513	Loïc Poirier	F	LHJMQ	18.5	—	—	0.34	7.9	33%	4.3y @22.8	0046	15.1
522	Derek Andrews	F	LHJMQ	18.4	—	—	0.18	4.2	30%	4.7y @23.1	0047	14.7
527	Teddy Mutryn	F	LHJMQ	19.5	SJS*	25′ #95	1.26	28.9	30%	3.6y @23.1	0044	14.5
537	Aiden Kirkwood	F	LHJMQ	18.4	—	—	0.17	3.8	30%	4.7y @23.1	0047	14.3
538	Anthony Dontigny	F	LHJMQ	18.4	—	—	0.23	5.3	33%	4.4y @22.8	0047	14.3
540	Liam Lefebvre	F	LHJMQ	19.3	LAK*	26′ #46	0.95	21.7	35%	3.8y @23.1	0041	14.2
542	Ross Campbell	F	LHJMQ	20.1	—	—	1.31	30.2	30%	3.5y @23.6	0036	14.1
552	Josh Demers	F	LHJMQ	18.5	—	—	0.31	7	30%	4.4y @22.9	0046	13.8
555	Louis-François Bélanger	F	LHJMQ	18.8	—	—	0.88	20.1	25%	4.3y @23.1	0046	13.5
584	Samuel Boyer	F	LHJMQ	18.5	—	—	0.17	4	28%	5y @23.5	0046	13
585	Samuel Rochon	F	LHJMQ	18.5	—	—	0.34	7.9	28%	5y @23.5	0046	13
588	Juraj Jonas Durco	F	LHJMQ	18.2	—	—	0.03	0.8	28%	4.5y @22.7	0046	12.9
589	Carter Fogarty	F	LHJMQ	18.8	—	—	0.73	16.7	25%	4.9y @23.7	0046	12.9
598	Korney Korneyev	F	LHJMQ	18.8	—	—	0.74	17	28%	4.7y @23.5	0046	12.8
605	Ryan Howard	F	LHJMQ	18.6	—	—	0.32	7.4	25%	5.1y @23.7	0046	12.6
606	Charles-Antoine Dubé	F	LHJMQ	18.6	—	—	0.3	6.9	28%	4.9y @23.5	0046	12.6
607	Jérémy Jarret	F	LHJMQ	18.5	—	—	0.15	3.3	28%	5y @23.5	0046	12.6
608	Xavier Sabourin	F	LHJMQ	18.5	—	—	0.17	3.9	25%	4.4y @22.9	0046	12.6
617	Maxim Schafer	F	LHJMQ	19.3	WSH*	25′ #96	0.92	21.2	28%	3.7y @23	0046	12.4
621	Étienne Maheu	F	LHJMQ	18.4	—	—	0.12	2.6	25%	4.7y @23.1	0046	12.2
629	Torkel Jennersjo	F	LHJMQ	18.9	—	—	0.54	12.4	25%	4.8y @23.7	0046	11.9
639	Lynden Larsen	F	LHJMQ	18.6	—	—	0.13	3.1	25%	5.1y @23.7	0046	11.8
640	Nolan Duskocy	F	LHJMQ	18.6	—	—	0.19	4.4	25%	5.1y @23.7	0034	11.8
641	Amelio Santini	F	LHJMQ	18.5	—	—	0.19	4.4	25%	5.2y @23.7	0046	11.8

Who each prospect looks like

3. Caleb Desnoyers90% NHL · 0.7y

Barrett Hayton 18′#5	46 pk	358 GP
Mitch Marner 15′#4	110 pk	738 GP
Bo Horvat 13′#9	90 pk	881 GP
Leon Draisaitl 14′#3	131 pk	855 GP
William Nylander 14′#8	100 pk	750 GP

16. Maddox Dagenais82% NHL · 2.8y

Liam Foudy 18′#18	19 pk	105 GP
Scott Laughton 12′#20	45 pk	745 GP
Eeli Tolvanen 17′#30	46 pk	423 GP
Casey Mittelstadt 17′#8	62 pk	509 GP
Alex Tuch 14′#18	88 pk	615 GP

19. Egor Shilov78% NHL · 3.1y

Daniel Sprong 15′#46	57 pk	374 GP
J.T. Compher 13′#35	52 pk	658 GP
Liam Foudy 18′#18	19 pk	105 GP
Curtis Lazar 13′#17	29 pk	617 GP
Joel Farabee 18′#14	57 pk	497 GP

22. Justin Carbonneau72% NHL · 2.4y

Luke Kunin 16′#15	41 pk	496 GP
Emile Poirier 13′#22	never stuck	8 GP
Jonathan Dahlen 16′#42	never stuck	61 GP
Jayce Hawryluk 14′#32	never stuck	98 GP
Jakub Vrana 14′#13	62 pk	406 GP

37. Oleg Kulebiakin65% NHL · 3.2y

Daniel Sprong 15′#46	57 pk	374 GP
Jake Guentzel 13′#77	91 pk	681 GP
J.T. Compher 13′#35	52 pk	658 GP
Jaret Anderson-Dolan 17′#41	27 pk	134 GP
Jarrod Maidens 12′#82	never stuck	0 GP

44. Bill Zonnon62% NHL · 2.5y

Nikita Scherbak 14′#26	never stuck	37 GP
Jake DeBrusk 15′#14	64 pk	628 GP
Joshua Ho-Sang 14′#28	never stuck	53 GP
Jesper Boqvist 17′#36	34 pk	387 GP
Kerby Rychel 13′#19	never stuck	43 GP

58. Jayden Pominville57% NHL · 5y

Riley Barber 12′#167	never stuck	16 GP
Andrew Copp 13′#104	58 pk	779 GP
Stefan Matteau 12′#29	never stuck	92 GP
Jared Fiegl 14′#191	never stuck	0 GP
Nicolas Kerdiles 12′#36	never stuck	3 GP

68. Olivier Charron55% NHL · 4.9y

Andrew Copp 13′#104	58 pk	779 GP
Riley Barber 12′#167	never stuck	16 GP
Jared Fiegl 14′#191	never stuck	0 GP
Stefan Matteau 12′#29	never stuck	92 GP
Nicolas Kerdiles 12′#36	never stuck	3 GP

69. Alexis Joseph60% NHL · 4.6y

Riley Barber 12′#167	never stuck	16 GP
Andrew Copp 13′#104	58 pk	779 GP
Jared Fiegl 14′#191	never stuck	0 GP
Nicolas Kerdiles 12′#36	never stuck	3 GP
Alex Formenton 17′#47	33 pk	109 GP

70. Benjamin Veitch55% NHL · 4.9y

Riley Barber 12′#167	never stuck	16 GP
Andrew Copp 13′#104	58 pk	779 GP
Jared Fiegl 14′#191	never stuck	0 GP
Stefan Matteau 12′#29	never stuck	92 GP
Nicolas Kerdiles 12′#36	never stuck	3 GP

111. Antoine Provencher53% NHL · 4.8y

Riley Barber 12′#167	never stuck	16 GP
Jared Fiegl 14′#191	never stuck	0 GP
Andrew Copp 13′#104	58 pk	779 GP
Nicolas Kerdiles 12′#36	never stuck	3 GP
Stefan Matteau 12′#29	never stuck	92 GP

112. Frédéric Bergeron53% NHL · 4.6y

Riley Barber 12′#167	never stuck	16 GP
Jared Fiegl 14′#191	never stuck	0 GP
Andrew Copp 13′#104	58 pk	779 GP
Nicolas Kerdiles 12′#36	never stuck	3 GP
Hudson Fasching 13′#118	32 pk	175 GP