Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
36	Trevor Connelly	F	AHLPRO	20.5	VGK	24′ #19	1.07	38.4	70%	2.1y @22.6	183369	34.1
40	Matvei Gridin	F	AHLPRO	20.5	CGY	24′ #28	0.81	29.3	70%	2.1y @22.6	183368	33.8
46	Ilya Protas	F	AHLPRO	20.1	WSH	24′ #75	0.96	34.5	68%	2.7y @22.8	183365	33.3
55	Konsta Helenius	F	AHLPRO	20.3	BUF	24′ #14	1	36.1	62%	2.3y @22.6	93069	32.3
65	Quentin Musty	F	AHLPRO	21.1	SJS*	23′ #26	0.74	26.6	68%	1.6y @22.7	183069	31.5
72	Igor Chernyshov	F	AHLPRO	20.7	SJS*	24′ #33	0.8	29	68%	2.1y @22.8	183264	31
82	Gabe Perreault	F	AHLPRO	21.3	NYR	23′ #23	0.85	30.7	65%	1.5y @22.8	63065	30.4
84	Bradly Nadeau	F	AHLPRO	21.3	CAR*	23′ #30	1.08	38.9	68%	1.7y @23	183264	30.1
87	Nick Lardis	F	AHLPRO	21.1	CHI	23′ #67	0.91	33	68%	1.8y @22.9	183258	30
91	Michael Brandsegg-Nygård	F	AHLPRO	20.9	DET*	24′ #15	0.73	26.5	62%	1.7y @22.6	92965	29.6
97	Gracyn Sawchyn	F	AHLPRO	21.6	FLA*	23′ #63	0.66	23.7	68%	1.7y @23.3	183353	29.2
107	Tanner Howe	F	AHLPRO	20.7	PIT*	24′ #46	0.59	21.4	57%	1.7y @22.4	42565	28.8
116	Jonathan Lekkerimäki	F	AHLPRO	22.1	VAN	22′ #15	0.95	34.4	65%	1y @23.1	03064	28.5
117	Felix Unger Sörum	F	AHLPRO	20.9	—	—	0.92	33.1	55%	2y @22.9	73158	28.5
139	Jani Nyman	F	AHLPRO	22.1	SEA*	22′ #49	0.85	30.5	60%	1y @23.1	03065	28.1
140	Conor Geekie	F	AHLPRO	22.3	TBL	22′ #11	1.04	37.3	60%	0.8y @23.1	02964	28.1
143	Oscar Fisker Molgaard	F	AHLPRO	21.5	SEA*	23′ #52	0.69	25	62%	1.6y @23.1	153253	28.1
167	Anton Wahlberg	F	AHLPRO	21.1	ANA	23′ #39	0.54	19.6	62%	1.7y @22.8	122955	27.2
170	Andrew Cristall	F	AHLPRO	21.5	WSH*	23′ #40	0.83	30.1	62%	1.6y @23.1	63153	27.1
192	Rutger McGroarty	F	AHLPRO	22.4	WPG*	22′ #14	1.13	40.9	55%	0.8y @23.2	02864	26.6
203	Otto Stenberg	F	AHLPRO	21.2	STL*	23′ #25	0.47	17	60%	1.3y @22.5	02561	26.2
212	Eduard Sale	F	AHLPRO	21.4	SEA	23′ #20	0.47	16.8	62%	1.2y @22.6	02755	25.7
213	Daniil But	F	AHLPRO	21.5	UTA	23′ #12	0.95	34.3	57%	1.6y @23.1	42762	25.6
219	Oscar Fisker Mølgaard	F	AHLPRO	21.5	—	—	0.69	25	50%	1.6y @23.1	02755	25.1
224	Joakim Kemell	F	AHLPRO	22.3	NSH*	22′ #17	0.6	21.8	60%	1y @23.3	02753	24.9
226	Kasper Halttunen	F	AHLPRO	21.2	SJS*	23′ #36	0.51	18.3	57%	1.6y @22.8	02555	24.9
227	David Edstrom	F	AHLPRO	21.5	VGK*	23′ #32	0.42	15	57%	1.4y @22.9	02555	24.8
234	Ethan Gauthier	F	AHLPRO	21.6	TBL*	23′ #37	0.48	17.4	60%	1.3y @22.9	02555	24.6
255	Juraj Pekarcik	F	AHLPRO	20.9	STL*	23′ #76	0.51	18.3	50%	1.8y @22.7	02559	23.9
260	Lenni Hämeenaho	F	AHLPRO	21.8	—	—	0.7	25.4	45%	1.3y @23.1	02355	23.6
266	Ivan Miroshnichenko	F	AHLPRO	22.5	WSH	22′ #20	0.83	29.9	57%	0.8y @23.3	02743	23.4
270	Isaac Howard	F	AHLPRO	22.4	TBL*	22′ #31	1.06	38.4	47%	0.7y @23.1	02353	23.1
274	Ivan Ryabkin	F	AHLPRO	19.3	CAR*	25′ #62	0.32	11.6	50%	3.1y @22.4	01861	22.9
275	Luca Pinelli	F	AHLPRO	21.4	CBJ*	23′ #114	0.68	24.4	53%	1.7y @23.1	02553	22.9
284	Luca Del Bel Belluz	F	AHLPRO	22.8	CBJ*	22′ #44	1.05	38	42%	1.1y @23.9	02365	22.3
285	Denver Barkey	F	AHLPRO	21.3	PHI	23′ #95	0.62	22.2	50%	1.8y @23.1	02453	22.3
286	Colby Barlow	F	AHLPRO	21.5	WPG*	23′ #18	0.25	8.9	57%	1.4y @22.9	02046	22.3
306	Jagger Firkus	F	AHLPRO	22.3	SEA	22′ #35	0.89	32.1	50%	0.8y @23.1	02442	21.6
312	Matthew Poitras	F	AHLPRO	22.4	BOS*	22′ #54	0.64	23	53%	1.2y @23.6	02438	21.3
313	Brayden Yager	F	AHLPRO	21.6	PIT*	23′ #14	0.44	15.9	53%	1.3y @22.9	02053	21.3
319	Filip Bystedt	F	AHLPRO	22.5	SJS	22′ #27	0.92	33.3	47%	0.7y @23.2	02342	20.9
342	Eduard Šalé	F	AHLPRO	21.4	—	—	0.47	16.8	33%	1.4y @22.8	01255	20
343	Hunter Haight	F	AHLPRO	22.4	MIN	22′ #47	0.59	21.4	50%	1.4y @23.8	01837	20
346	Cam Lund	F	AHLPRO	22.2	—	—	0.68	24.4	33%	1.5y @23.7	01553	19.9
357	Ben Hemmerling	F	AHLPRO	22.3	VGK*	22′ #177	0.74	26.5	35%	1.1y @23.4	01951	19.7
363	Braeden Bowman	F	AHLPRO	23.2	VGK	—	1.3	46.9	28%	1.3y @24.5	0056	19.3
370	Koehn Ziemmer	F	AHLPRO	21.7	LAK*	23′ #78	0.42	15.2	40%	1.1y @22.8	01258	19.1
390	Riley Heidt	F	AHLPRO	21.4	MIN*	23′ #64	0.35	12.7	45%	1.4y @22.8	01555	18.7
392	Alex Suzdalev	F	AHLPRO	22.5	—	—	0.59	21.1	33%	1.2y @23.7	01253	18.6
393	Kalan Lind	F	AHLPRO	21.6	NSH*	23′ #46	0.31	11.1	53%	1.4y @23	01637	18.6
413	Owen Beck	F	AHLPRO	22.5	MTL	22′ #33	0.57	20.5	47%	1.3y @23.8	01837	18.2
414	Aleksanteri Kaskimaki	F	AHLPRO	22.5	STL*	22′ #73	0.69	24.8	47%	1.1y @23.6	01638	18.1
415	Alexander Suzdalev	F	AHLPRO	22.5	WSH*	22′ #70	0.59	21.1	40%	1.3y @23.8	01937	17.9
421	Nathan Gaucher	F	AHLPRO	22.8	ANA	22′ #22	0.47	16.9	45%	0.8y @23.6	01637	17.6
427	Dans Locmelis	F	AHLPRO	22.6	BOS*	22′ #119	0.65	23.5	35%	1.5y @24.1	01237	17.5
437	Nico Myatovic	F	AHLPRO	21.7	ANA	23′ #33	0.27	9.7	47%	1.3y @23	01237	17.2
439	Aleksanteri Kaskimäki	F	AHLPRO	22.5	—	—	0.69	24.8	30%	1.3y @23.8	0051	17.1
444	Joey Willis	F	AHLPRO	21.4	NSH*	23′ #111	0.39	14.2	35%	1.4y @22.8	0958	16.9
468	Ville Koivunen	F	AHLPRO	23.2	PIT	21′ #51	1.21	43.5	25%	0.7y @23.9	0064	16.1
472	Carson Rehkopf	F	AHLPRO	21.6	SEA*	23′ #50	0.28	9.9	42%	1.6y @23.2	01237	16
473	Noel Nordh	F	AHLPRO	21.6	ARI*	23′ #72	0.35	12.6	38%	1.2y @22.8	0446	15.9
476	Reid Schaefer	F	AHLPRO	22.9	EDM*	22′ #32	0.85	30.6	35%	1.6y @24.5	0039	15.8
481	Matthew Seminoff	F	AHLPRO	22.6	DAL*	22′ #179	0.69	25.1	28%	1.2y @23.8	0048	15.7
482	Matyas Sapovaliv	F	AHLPRO	22.5	VGK*	22′ #48	0.49	17.5	38%	1.2y @23.7	01237	15.7
483	Sandis Vilmanis	F	AHLPRO	22.6	FLA*	22′ #157	0.79	28.6	28%	1.1y @23.7	0038	15.7
488	Aydar Suniev	F	AHLPRO	21.8	CGY	23′ #80	0.42	15.2	33%	1.5y @23.3	01037	15.5
493	Brad Lambert	F	AHLPRO	22.7	WPG*	22′ #30	0.38	13.8	40%	0.9y @23.6	01037	15.4
500	Yegor Sidorov	F	AHLPRO	22.2	ANA*	23′ #85	0.43	15.4	35%	1.2y @23.4	01037	15.2
515	Ondrej Becher	F	AHLPRO	22.5	DET*	24′ #80	0.47	16.8	35%	1.1y @23.6	01237	15
517	Gavin Hayes	F	AHLPRO	22.3	CHI*	22′ #66	0.46	16.5	35%	1.2y @23.5	0437	14.9
520	Tuomas Uronen	F	AHLPRO	21.4	VGK*	23′ #192	0.35	12.7	25%	1.4y @22.8	0055	14.7
524	Adam Sýkora	F	AHLPRO	21.9	NYR	—	0.47	16.9	25%	1y @22.9	0055	14.6
528	Zachary L'Heureux	F	AHLPRO	23.3	COL	21′ #27	0.93	33.7	30%	1.1y @24.4	0039	14.4
529	Alex Bump	F	AHLPRO	22.7	PHI	22′ #133	0.72	26.1	25%	1.2y @23.9	0038	14.4
539	Carey Terrance	F	AHLPRO	21.3	ANA*	23′ #59	0.25	9	38%	1.6y @22.9	0037	14.2
548	Matyas Melovsky	F	AHLPRO	22.2	NJD*	24′ #171	0.47	17.1	23%	1y @23.2	0048	13.8
556	Oasiz Wiesblatt	F	AHLPRO	22.4	—	—	0.46	16.7	23%	0.8y @23.2	0048	13.4
558	Eriks Mateiko	F	AHLPRO	20.8	WSH*	24′ #90	0.22	8	33%	1.8y @22.6	0055	13.4
562	Jakub Brabenec	F	AHLPRO	22.9	VGK*	21′ #102	0.5	18	28%	1.2y @24.1	0033	13.3
564	Nikita Prishchepov	F	AHLPRO	22.5	COL*	24′ #217	0.55	19.7	23%	0.7y @23.2	0048	13.3
565	Rasmus Kumpulainen	F	AHLPRO	21	MIN*	23′ #53	0.1	3.8	35%	1.9y @22.9	0046	13.3
571	Jaroslav Chmelar	F	AHLPRO	23.1	NYR	21′ #144	0.54	19.6	23%	1.6y @24.7	0041	13.2
572	Florian Xhekaj	F	AHLPRO	22.1	MTL	23′ #101	0.45	16.3	30%	1.5y @23.6	0437	13.2
574	Gleb Trikozov	F	AHLPRO	22	CAR*	22′ #60	0.24	8.6	33%	1.5y @23.5	0034	13.1
575	Jordan Dumais	F	AHLPRO	22.3	CBJ*	22′ #96	0.39	14.1	28%	1.2y @23.5	0433	13.1
581	Bryce McConnell-Barker	F	AHLPRO	22.2	NYR*	22′ #97	0.36	13.1	30%	1.5y @23.7	0433	13
587	Sasha Pastujov	F	AHLPRO	23.1	MTL	21′ #66	0.8	29	30%	1.5y @24.6	0038	12.9
594	Jack Devine	F	AHLPRO	22.9	—	—	0.68	24.6	23%	1.2y @24.1	0048	12.8
595	Isak Rosén	F	AHLPRO	23.4	WPG	—	1.16	41.9	17%	1.2y @24.6	0055	12.8
596	Cam Squires	F	AHLPRO	21.4	NJD*	23′ #122	0.34	12.3	25%	1.6y @23	0037	12.8
600	Samuel Savoie	F	AHLPRO	22.4	CHI*	22′ #81	0.42	15.1	30%	1y @23.4	0037	12.6
614	William Stromgren	F	AHLPRO	23.2	CGY*	21′ #45	0.71	25.7	28%	1.4y @24.6	0036	12.4
615	Hunter St. Martin	F	AHLPRO	21.2	FLA*	24′ #193	0.28	10.2	23%	2y @23.2	0053	12.4
618	Justin Robidas	F	AHLPRO	23.4	CAR*	21′ #147	1.03	37.3	17%	1.1y @24.5	0039	12.3
623	Filip Mesar	F	AHLPRO	22.6	MTL	22′ #26	0.38	13.7	35%	1y @23.6	0034	12.1
624	Borya Valis	F	AHLPRO	22.4	—	—	0.42	15	17%	1.3y @23.7	0048	12.1
626	Xavier Bourgault	F	AHLPRO	23.8	EDM*	21′ #22	0.81	29.4	25%	0.7y @24.5	0038	12
656	Alexis Gendron	F	AHLPRO	22.6	PHI*	22′ #220	0.45	16.3	20%	1.4y @24	0036	11.4
663	Amadeus Lombardi	F	AHLPRO	23.2	NJD	22′ #113	0.89	32.2	17%	1.5y @24.7	0037	11
666	Zach L’Heureux	F	AHLPRO	23.3	—	—	0.93	33.7	15%	1.3y @24.6	0037	10.9

Who each prospect looks like

36. Trevor Connelly70% NHL · 2.1y

Jack Drury 18′#42	30 pk	268 GP
Jesper Boqvist 17′#36	34 pk	387 GP
Tyler Benson 16′#32	never stuck	38 GP
Jakub Vrana 14′#13	62 pk	406 GP
Tanner Pearson 12′#30	53 pk	778 GP

40. Matvei Gridin70% NHL · 2.1y

Jesper Boqvist 17′#36	34 pk	387 GP
Tanner Pearson 12′#30	53 pk	778 GP
Jack Drury 18′#42	30 pk	268 GP
Eetu Luostarinen 17′#42	43 pk	447 GP
Vladislav Kamenev 14′#42	never stuck	66 GP

46. Ilya Protas68% NHL · 2.7y

Emil Bemstrom 17′#117	33 pk	242 GP
Jack Drury 18′#42	30 pk	268 GP
Lucas Wallmark 14′#97	31 pk	187 GP
Artturi Lehkonen 13′#55	65 pk	660 GP
Carl Grundstrom 16′#57	27 pk	339 GP

55. Konsta Helenius62% NHL · 2.3y

Jakub Vrana 14′#13	62 pk	406 GP
Jesper Boqvist 17′#36	34 pk	387 GP
Jack Drury 18′#42	30 pk	268 GP
Jake DeBrusk 15′#14	64 pk	628 GP
Tyler Benson 16′#32	never stuck	38 GP

65. Quentin Musty68% NHL · 1.6y

Tanner Pearson 12′#30	53 pk	778 GP
Mitchell Stephens 15′#33	18 pk	123 GP
Jake DeBrusk 15′#14	64 pk	628 GP
Jesper Boqvist 17′#36	34 pk	387 GP
Eetu Luostarinen 17′#42	43 pk	447 GP

72. Igor Chernyshov68% NHL · 2.1y

Tanner Pearson 12′#30	53 pk	778 GP
Jesper Boqvist 17′#36	34 pk	387 GP
Eetu Luostarinen 17′#42	43 pk	447 GP
Mitchell Stephens 15′#33	18 pk	123 GP
Jack Drury 18′#42	30 pk	268 GP

82. Gabe Perreault65% NHL · 1.5y

Mitchell Stephens 15′#33	18 pk	123 GP
Tanner Pearson 12′#30	53 pk	778 GP
Jesper Boqvist 17′#36	34 pk	387 GP
Nick Sorensen 13′#45	never stuck	5 GP
Artturi Lehkonen 13′#55	65 pk	660 GP

84. Bradly Nadeau68% NHL · 1.7y

Jesper Boqvist 17′#36	34 pk	387 GP
Tyler Benson 16′#32	never stuck	38 GP
Jack Drury 18′#42	30 pk	268 GP
Artturi Lehkonen 13′#55	65 pk	660 GP
Jonatan Berggren 18′#33	36 pk	205 GP

87. Nick Lardis68% NHL · 1.8y

Artturi Lehkonen 13′#55	65 pk	660 GP
Carl Grundstrom 16′#57	27 pk	339 GP
Anton Slepyshev 13′#88	20 pk	102 GP
Nick Sorensen 13′#45	never stuck	5 GP
Jesper Boqvist 17′#36	34 pk	387 GP

91. Michael Brandsegg-Nygård62% NHL · 1.7y

Jake DeBrusk 15′#14	64 pk	628 GP
Tanner Pearson 12′#30	53 pk	778 GP
Grigori Denisenko 18′#15	never stuck	33 GP
Mitchell Stephens 15′#33	18 pk	123 GP
Jesper Boqvist 17′#36	34 pk	387 GP

97. Gracyn Sawchyn68% NHL · 1.7y

Brendan Leipsic 12′#89	33 pk	187 GP
Michael Amadio 14′#90	35 pk	522 GP
Sven Andrighetto 13′#86	36 pk	216 GP
Kevin Stenlund 15′#58	28 pk	368 GP
Semyon Der-Arguchintsev 18′#76	never stuck	1 GP

107. Tanner Howe57% NHL · 1.7y

Filip Hallander 18′#58	never stuck	16 GP
Jesse Ylonen 18′#35	35 pk	111 GP
Bo Groulx 18′#54	never stuck	78 GP
Adam Erne 13′#33	36 pk	424 GP
Nick Baptiste 13′#69	never stuck	47 GP