Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
1	Daxon Rudolph★	D	WHL	18.5	BUF*	26′ #4	1.15	28.2	85%	1.6y @20.1	254979	46.4
3	Carson Carels★	D	WHL	18.2	CGY*	26′ #6	1.26	31	75%	1.8y @20	164477	41.5
6	Radim Mrtka★	D	WHL	19.2	BUF	25′ #9	0.79	19.5	78%	1.4y @20.6	153372	37.6
7	Ryan Lin★	D	WHL	18.3	SJS*	26′ #21	1.08	26.5	68%	1.7y @20	153366	35
11	Landon DuPont	D	WHL	17.2	—	—	1.16	28.5	60%	3.5y @20.7	02462	28.6
20	Colt Carter	D	WHL	17.1	—	—	0.62	15.3	53%	5y @22.1	02053	22.8
21	Brock Cripps	D	WHL	17.1	—	—	0.6	14.7	53%	5y @22.1	02053	22.8
22	Boston Tait	D	WHL	17.4	—	—	0.37	9.1	53%	4.7y @22.1	02053	22.8
29	Jaxon Pisani	D	WHL	17.4	—	—	0.1	2.6	50%	4.9y @22.3	02053	22.4
30	Cohen Williams	D	WHL	17.1	—	—	0.15	3.7	50%	5.2y @22.3	02053	22.4
31	Grayson Tash	D	WHL	17.4	—	—	0.18	4.4	50%	4.9y @22.3	02053	22.4
35	Harry Mattern	D	WHL	17	—	—	0.08	2	50%	5.4y @22.4	02053	22
39	Jakub Vanecek	D	WHL	18.5	DAL*	26′ #59	0.59	14.6	50%	3.3y @21.8	01655	21.6
46	Luke Christopherson	D	WHL	17.3	—	—	0.06	1.4	47%	5.3y @22.6	01653	21.1
47	Joaquin Geras	D	WHL	17.6	—	—	0.22	5.4	47%	4.8y @22.4	01650	21.1
48	Madden Tymchak	D	WHL	17.5	—	—	0.05	1.2	47%	4.9y @22.4	01650	21.1
49	Owen Hayden	D	WHL	17.6	—	—	0.02	0.6	47%	4.8y @22.4	01650	21.1
50	Benson Hirst	D	WHL	17.8	—	—	0.03	0.6	47%	4.6y @22.4	01650	21.1
51	Aden Bouchard	D	WHL	17.4	—	—	0.09	2.2	47%	5y @22.4	01650	21.1
52	Daniel Vaillant	D	WHL	17.5	—	—	0.16	4	47%	4.9y @22.4	01650	21.1
53	Rhett Sather	D	WHL	17.9	—	—	0.61	14.9	50%	4.5y @22.4	01850	21
55	Griffin Darby	D	WHL	17.9	—	—	0.23	5.6	47%	4.7y @22.6	01650	20.6
56	Harrison Brunicke	D	WHL	20.3	PIT*	24′ #44	1	24.6	55%	2.5y @22.8	02151	20.3
57	Odin Vauhkonen	D	WHL	17.9	—	—	0.35	8.7	47%	4.5y @22.4	01650	20.3
83	David Byrne	D	WHL	18	—	—	0.1	2.4	42%	4.8y @22.8	01645	17.2
87	Brek Liske	D	WHL	18.6	PHI*	26′ #53	0.46	11.4	47%	4y @22.6	01644	16.9
96	Alofa Tunoa Ta'amu	D	WHL	18.2	WPG*	26′ #199	0.19	4.8	40%	4.6y @22.8	01545	16.4
101	Braydon Riggall	D	WHL	18	—	—	0.11	2.7	40%	4.8y @22.8	01544	15.8
109	Jake Missura	D	WHL	18.2	—	—	0.09	2.2	38%	4.7y @22.9	0944	15.2
110	Brayden Klimpke	D	WHL	18.9	MTL*	26′ #117	0.69	17	40%	4.1y @23	0844	15.2
111	Vanek Popil	D	WHL	18.3	—	—	0.14	3.4	38%	4.6y @22.9	0944	15.2
121	Phoenix Cahill	D	WHL	18.1	—	—	0.07	1.6	35%	4.7y @22.8	0844	14.7
127	Will McLaughlin	D	WHL	18.4	VGK*	26′ #159	0.44	10.9	35%	4.5y @22.9	0844	14.3
134	Tarin Smith	D	WHL	20.4	ANA*	24′ #79	1.09	26.9	40%	2.8y @23.2	0038	13.8
142	William Degagne	D	WHL	18.3	—	—	0.17	4.1	35%	4.6y @22.9	0844	13.4
149	Dermot Johnston	D	WHL	18.3	—	—	0	0	33%	4.8y @23.1	0044	13
157	Cameron Dillard	D	WHL	18.3	—	—	0.13	3.1	33%	4.7y @23	0044	12.8
170	Timofei Runtso	D	WHL	19.1	MTL*	26′ #57	0.65	15.9	38%	2.8y @21.9	0033	12.2
178	Dryden Deobald	D	WHL	18.3	—	—	0.17	4.2	33%	4.8y @23.1	0029	11.9
179	Arsenii Anisimov	D	WHL	18.7	—	—	0.6	14.8	33%	5.4y @24.1	0029	11.9
188	Hunter Aura	D	WHL	18.8	—	—	0.62	15.4	33%	5.3y @24.1	0029	11.6
191	Kaden Meyer	D	WHL	18.4	—	—	0.18	4.5	30%	5.2y @23.6	0029	11.5
192	Jacob Henderson	D	WHL	18.4	—	—	0.17	4.2	30%	5.2y @23.6	0029	11.5
200	Benett Kelly	D	WHL	18.5	—	—	0.36	8.9	30%	4.6y @23.1	0029	11.3
201	Nate Yellowaga	D	WHL	18.4	—	—	0.4	9.9	30%	4.7y @23.1	0029	11.3
206	Nolan Saunderson	D	WHL	18.6	—	—	0.23	5.8	30%	5y @23.6	0029	11.2
207	Daxon Yerex	D	WHL	18.6	—	—	0.1	2.5	30%	5y @23.6	0029	11.2
208	Darian Rolsing	D	WHL	18.5	—	—	0.15	3.6	30%	5.1y @23.6	0029	11.2
213	Hubert Clarke	D	WHL	18.7	—	—	0.16	3.8	30%	4.9y @23.6	0029	11.1
214	Caleb Potter	D	WHL	18.7	—	—	0.2	4.9	30%	4.9y @23.6	0029	11.1
226	Nathan Gray	D	WHL	18.5	—	—	0.09	2.3	28%	4.6y @23.1	0029	10.8
234	Kaden Allan	D	WHL	18.6	—	—	0.22	5.4	28%	5y @23.6	0029	10.6
236	Jakub Seidl	D	WHL	18.8	—	—	0.19	4.8	30%	5.6y @24.4	0029	10.5
237	Noah Chadi	D	WHL	18.6	—	—	0.09	2.2	28%	5y @23.6	0029	10.5
245	Cameron Jacobson	D	WHL	18.5	—	—	0.07	1.6	28%	4.6y @23.1	0029	10.3
248	Eli Johnson	D	WHL	18.6	—	—	0.25	6.1	28%	5y @23.6	0029	10.3
249	Jack Lavallee	D	WHL	18.6	—	—	0.06	1.4	28%	4.5y @23.1	0029	10.3
250	Carter Sotheran	D	WHL	21.1	PHI*	23′ #135	1.05	25.8	28%	2.7y @23.8	0036	10.2
270	Michal Capos	D	WHL	19.1	—	—	0.3	7.3	25%	5y @24.1	0029	9.8
280	Tai Riley	D	WHL	18.9	—	—	0.25	6.1	28%	5.5y @24.4	0029	9.4
283	Jaxson Pawlenchuk	D	WHL	18.8	—	—	0.08	2	25%	5.3y @24.1	0029	9.3
305	Mykola Kosarev	D	WHL	18.8	—	—	0.05	1.2	28%	5.9y @24.7	0026	8.9
325	Dayton Deschamps	D	WHL	19	—	—	0.19	4.7	23%	4.6y @23.6	0029	8.6
330	Kayd Ruedig	D	WHL	19.1	—	—	0.58	14.3	20%	3.9y @23	0029	8.4
331	Matus Lisy	D	WHL	19.2	—	—	0.35	8.7	23%	4.4y @23.6	0029	8.4
340	Mazden Leslie	D	WHL	21.3	—	—	1.01	25	23%	3.5y @24.8	0027	8.2
344	Isa Guram	D	WHL	19.3	—	—	0.46	11.2	23%	4.8y @24.1	0026	8
345	Lance McCloskey	D	WHL	18.9	—	—	0.12	2.9	20%	4.2y @23.1	0029	8
357	Max Pšenička	D	WHL	19.6	—	—	0.57	13.9	20%	4.5y @24.1	0026	7.6
358	Dylan LeBret	D	WHL	19.4	—	—	0.28	6.9	20%	3.9y @23.3	0029	7.5
371	Connor Schmidt	D	WHL	19.4	—	—	0.61	14.9	17%	4.7y @24.1	0029	7.1
372	Nolan Paquette	D	WHL	19.5	—	—	0.62	15.3	17%	4.6y @24.1	0029	7.1
377	Jace McFaul	D	WHL	19.5	—	—	0.5	12.3	17%	4.6y @24.1	0026	7
380	Bauer Dumanski	D	WHL	21.6	—	—	0.65	16	20%	4.3y @25.9	0027	6.9
383	Josh McGregor	D	WHL	19.2	—	—	0.32	7.9	20%	4.9y @24.1	0026	6.8
392	Kaeson Fisher	D	WHL	19.4	—	—	0.4	9.8	20%	5.7y @25.1	0025	6.6
393	Aiden Ziprick	D	WHL	20.7	—	—	0.82	20.3	17%	3.2y @23.9	0026	6.6
402	Kaleb Hartmann	D	WHL	19.1	—	—	0.24	5.8	17%	3.9y @23	0026	6.5
417	Henry Peterson	D	WHL	19.5	—	—	0.23	5.6	17%	3.6y @23.1	0026	6.2
422	Justice Christensen	D	WHL	21	—	—	0.76	18.7	15%	3.9y @24.9	0026	6
433	Jordan Martin	D	WHL	19.6	—	—	0.4	9.9	15%	4.5y @24.1	0025	5.8
440	Colton Alain	D	WHL	19.3	—	—	0.16	3.8	17%	4.2y @23.5	0026	5.6
464	Owen Schoettler	D	WHL	19.6	—	—	0.33	8.1	12%	5y @24.6	0023	4.9
476	Ashton Cumby	D	WHL	21.1	CHI*	25′ #162	0.29	7.1	12%	3.8y @24.9	0019	4.7
480	Austin Zemlak	D	WHL	21.5	—	—	0.29	7.1	10%	2.4y @23.9	0019	4.5
481	Ryan Michael	D	WHL	21.5	—	—	0.51	12.5	12%	2.4y @23.9	0019	4.5
482	Brennen Hocher	D	WHL	19.2	—	—	0.11	2.8	15%	4.9y @24.1	0025	4.5
500	Jan Skok	D	WHL	19.8	—	—	0.04	0.9	12%	4.3y @24.1	0023	4.2
506	Isaac Poll	D	WHL	19.3	—	—	0.09	2.2	12%	4.6y @23.9	0025	4.1
514	Axel Hurtig	D	WHL	21.2	CGY*	23′ #208	0.3	7.3	7%	4.7y @25.9	0014	4
531	Rylan Pearce	D	WHL	20.9	—	—	0.37	9.1	7%	4.4y @25.3	0014	3.6
532	Keith McInnis	D	WHL	20.6	—	—	0.55	13.4	5%	2.8y @23.4	0014	3.6
533	Linden Burrett	D	WHL	20.5	—	—	0.55	13.5	10%	4.7y @25.2	0010	3.6
541	Ryan Gower	D	WHL	19.3	—	—	0.06	1.5	12%	5.8y @25.1	0016	3.5
542	Rowan Guest	D	WHL	20.6	—	—	0.39	9.6	7%	3.3y @23.9	0013	3.5
543	Joe Gramer	D	WHL	21.1	—	—	0.52	12.7	10%	2.8y @23.9	0011	3.5
547	Caden Campion	D	WHL	19.4	—	—	0.13	3.2	10%	5.5y @24.9	0015	3.3
549	Will McIsaac	D	WHL	20.2	—	—	0.52	12.7	7%	5.6y @25.8	0014	3.2
552	William Mcisaac	D	WHL	20.2	STL*	24′ #145	0.52	12.7	7%	5.6y @25.8	0014	3.2
567	Niko Tsakumis	D	WHL	21.1	—	—	0.24	5.9	7%	4.8y @25.9	0011	2.9

Who each prospect looks like

1. Daxon Rudolph85% NHL · 1.6y

Quinn Hughes 18′#7	92 pk	507 GP
Mikhail Sergachev 16′#9	66 pk	630 GP
Adam Boqvist 18′#8	43 pk	272 GP
Evan Bouchard 18′#10	95 pk	429 GP
Seth Jones 13′#4	60 pk	912 GP

3. Carson Carels75% NHL · 1.8y

Mikhail Sergachev 16′#9	66 pk	630 GP
Quinn Hughes 18′#7	92 pk	507 GP
Jakob Chychrun 16′#16	64 pk	621 GP
Evan Bouchard 18′#10	95 pk	429 GP
Darnell Nurse 13′#7	53 pk	798 GP

6. Radim Mrtka78% NHL · 1.4y

Erik Brannstrom 17′#15	36 pk	294 GP
Morgan Rielly 12′#5	72 pk	951 GP
Derrick Pouliot 12′#8	26 pk	226 GP
Jeremy Roy 15′#31	never stuck	0 GP
Olli Maatta 12′#22	55 pk	804 GP

7. Ryan Lin68% NHL · 1.7y

Jakob Chychrun 16′#16	64 pk	621 GP
Mikhail Sergachev 16′#9	66 pk	630 GP
Ian McCoshen 13′#31	never stuck	60 GP
Quinn Hughes 18′#7	92 pk	507 GP
Evan Bouchard 18′#10	95 pk	429 GP

11. Landon DuPont60% NHL · 3.5y

Joakim Ryan 12′#198	16 pk	145 GP
Ian McCoshen 13′#31	never stuck	60 GP
Keaton Thompson 13′#87	never stuck	0 GP
Mike Matheson 12′#23	62 pk	705 GP
Tanner Faith 14′#139	never stuck	0 GP

20. Colt Carter53% NHL · 5y

Jake McCabe 12′#44	31 pk	723 GP
Keaton Thompson 13′#87	never stuck	0 GP
Tanner Faith 14′#139	never stuck	0 GP
Mike Matheson 12′#23	62 pk	705 GP
Joakim Ryan 12′#198	16 pk	145 GP

21. Brock Cripps53% NHL · 5y

Jake McCabe 12′#44	31 pk	723 GP
Tanner Faith 14′#139	never stuck	0 GP
Keaton Thompson 13′#87	never stuck	0 GP
Joakim Ryan 12′#198	16 pk	145 GP
Mike Matheson 12′#23	62 pk	705 GP

22. Boston Tait53% NHL · 4.7y

Tanner Faith 14′#139	never stuck	0 GP
Keaton Thompson 13′#87	never stuck	0 GP
Joakim Ryan 12′#198	16 pk	145 GP
Jake McCabe 12′#44	31 pk	723 GP
Gage Ausmus 13′#151	never stuck	0 GP

29. Jaxon Pisani50% NHL · 4.9y

Tanner Faith 14′#139	never stuck	0 GP
Jake McCabe 12′#44	31 pk	723 GP
Keaton Thompson 13′#87	never stuck	0 GP
Joakim Ryan 12′#198	16 pk	145 GP
Gage Ausmus 13′#151	never stuck	0 GP

30. Cohen Williams50% NHL · 5.2y

Jake McCabe 12′#44	31 pk	723 GP
Tanner Faith 14′#139	never stuck	0 GP
Keaton Thompson 13′#87	never stuck	0 GP
Mike Matheson 12′#23	62 pk	705 GP
Joakim Ryan 12′#198	16 pk	145 GP

31. Grayson Tash50% NHL · 4.9y

Tanner Faith 14′#139	never stuck	0 GP
Keaton Thompson 13′#87	never stuck	0 GP
Jake McCabe 12′#44	31 pk	723 GP
Joakim Ryan 12′#198	16 pk	145 GP
Gage Ausmus 13′#151	never stuck	0 GP

35. Harry Mattern50% NHL · 5.4y

Tanner Faith 14′#139	never stuck	0 GP
Keaton Thompson 13′#87	never stuck	0 GP
Jake McCabe 12′#44	31 pk	723 GP
Mike Matheson 12′#23	62 pk	705 GP
Connor Clifton 13′#133	24 pk	434 GP