Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
62	Nikita Shcherbakov	D	VHLPRO	18.8	NJD*	26′ #44	0.29	7	57%	3.9y @22.7	101942	20
140	Yaroslav Fedoseyev	D	VHLPRO	18.8	TOR*	26′ #161	0.24	5.9	42%	3.7y @22.5	01129	13.7
154	Alexander Ivanov	D	VHLPRO	18.2	CHI*	26′ #194	0.08	2	42%	4.3y @22.5	01129	12.9
169	Maxim Agafonov	D	VHLPRO	19.4	SEA*	25′ #134	0.18	4.4	40%	3y @22.4	01129	12.3
313	Alexander Pelevin	D	VHLPRO	22.3	—	—	0.24	5.9	28%	2.8y @25.1	0026	8.7
349	Daniil Karpovich	D	VHLPRO	21.7	NJD*	23′ #186	0	0	23%	2.4y @24.1	0024	7.9
436	Artem Barabosha	D	VHLPRO	22.4	NJD*	22′ #198	0.08	1.9	17%	3.4y @25.8	0024	5.7
570	Daniil Chayka	D	VHLPRO	23.8	VGK*	21′ #38	0.12	3	7%	1y @24.8	0011	2.8

Who each prospect looks like

62. Nikita Shcherbakov57% NHL · 3.9y

Martin Fehérváry 18′#46	27 pk	380 GP
Urho Vaakanainen 17′#18	27 pk	221 GP
Robert Hagg 13′#41	22 pk	345 GP
Jacob Cederholm 16′#97	never stuck	0 GP
Gabriel Carlsson 15′#29	never stuck	81 GP

140. Yaroslav Fedoseyev42% NHL · 3.7y

Jacob Cederholm 16′#97	never stuck	0 GP
Martin Fehérváry 18′#46	27 pk	380 GP
Maxime Lajoie 16′#133	never stuck	77 GP
Gustav Forsling 14′#126	43 pk	557 GP
Cale Fleury 17′#87	11 pk	100 GP

154. Alexander Ivanov42% NHL · 4.3y

Jacob Cederholm 16′#97	never stuck	0 GP
Martin Fehérváry 18′#46	27 pk	380 GP
Maxime Lajoie 16′#133	never stuck	77 GP
Gabriel Carlsson 15′#29	never stuck	81 GP
Gustav Forsling 14′#126	43 pk	557 GP

169. Maxim Agafonov40% NHL · 3y

Jacob Cederholm 16′#97	never stuck	0 GP
Cale Fleury 17′#87	11 pk	100 GP
Martin Fehérváry 18′#46	27 pk	380 GP
Maxime Lajoie 16′#133	never stuck	77 GP
Robert Hagg 13′#41	22 pk	345 GP

313. Alexander Pelevin28% NHL · 2.8y

Tyler Tucker 18′#200	20 pk	159 GP
Justin Hache 12′#208	never stuck	0 GP
Jakub Galvas 17′#150	never stuck	6 GP
Dawson Barteaux 18′#168	never stuck	0 GP
Tim Berni 18′#159	never stuck	59 GP

349. Daniil Karpovich23% NHL · 2.4y

Antti Palojarvi 17′#186	never stuck	0 GP
Robin Press 13′#211	never stuck	0 GP
Sebastian Walfridsson 17′#151	never stuck	0 GP
Dawson Barteaux 18′#168	never stuck	0 GP
Anton Cederholm 13′#145	never stuck	0 GP

436. Artem Barabosha17% NHL · 3.4y

Dawson Barteaux 18′#168	never stuck	0 GP
Ryan Culkin 12′#124	never stuck	0 GP
Antti Palojarvi 17′#186	never stuck	0 GP
Petter Hansson 15′#202	never stuck	0 GP
Robin Press 13′#211	never stuck	0 GP

570. Daniil Chayka7% NHL · 1y

Julius Bergman 14′#46	never stuck	0 GP
Jeremy Roy 15′#31	never stuck	0 GP
Linus Arnesson 13′#60	never stuck	0 GP
Niklas Hansson 13′#68	never stuck	0 GP
Chad Krys 16′#45	never stuck	0 GP