Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
64	Theodore Lechner	D	USHL	18	COL*	26′ #152	0.1	1.9	45%	4.4y @22.4	01650	19.8
90	Jonas Kemps	D	USHL	18.6	FLA*	26′ #98	0.16	3.1	42%	4.2y @22.8	01644	16.7
105	Luke Schairer	D	USHL	18.6	STL*	26′ #75	0.36	7.1	40%	4.2y @22.8	01544	15.7
123	James Rieber	D	USHL	18.3	ANA*	26′ #210	0.18	3.6	35%	4.7y @23	0844	14.6
132	Bode Laylin	D	USHL	18.8	CGY*	26′ #164	0.69	13.6	35%	4.8y @23.6	0044	13.9
242	Jean-Samuel Daigneault	D	USHL	18.5	MTL*	26′ #221	0.11	2.1	28%	4.6y @23.1	0029	10.5
341	Cullen Mccrate	D	USHL	19.3	BOS*	26′ #216	0.49	9.7	23%	4.4y @23.7	0029	8.2
368	Carter Amico	D	USHL	19.4	PHI*	25′ #38	0.41	8	23%	2.7y @22.1	0026	7.2
446	Cole Tuminaro	D	USHL	19.6	COL*	26′ #140	0.3	5.8	17%	3.7y @23.3	0025	5.5
477	Maceo Phillips	D	USHL	19.5	CGY*	25′ #80	0.25	4.9	15%	2y @21.5	0025	4.7
518	Ludvig Lafton	D	USHL	20.6	UTA*	24′ #190	0.62	12.3	10%	4.3y @24.9	0014	3.9

Who each prospect looks like

64. Theodore Lechner45% NHL · 4.4y

Joakim Ryan 12′#198	16 pk	145 GP
Tanner Faith 14′#139	never stuck	0 GP
Michael Downing 13′#97	never stuck	0 GP
Filip Westerlund 17′#44	never stuck	0 GP
Gage Ausmus 13′#151	never stuck	0 GP

90. Jonas Kemps42% NHL · 4.2y

Gage Ausmus 13′#151	never stuck	0 GP
Connor Clifton 13′#133	24 pk	434 GP
Brian Cooper 12′#127	never stuck	0 GP
Will Butcher 13′#123	45 pk	275 GP
Matt Grzelcyk 12′#85	44 pk	596 GP

105. Luke Schairer40% NHL · 4.2y

Matt Grzelcyk 12′#85	44 pk	596 GP
Gustav Olofsson 13′#46	never stuck	63 GP
Filip Westerlund 17′#44	never stuck	0 GP
Michael Downing 13′#97	never stuck	0 GP
Will Butcher 13′#123	45 pk	275 GP

123. James Rieber35% NHL · 4.7y

Gage Ausmus 13′#151	never stuck	0 GP
Connor Clifton 13′#133	24 pk	434 GP
Joakim Ryan 12′#198	16 pk	145 GP
Michael Downing 13′#97	never stuck	0 GP
Will Butcher 13′#123	45 pk	275 GP

132. Bode Laylin35% NHL · 4.8y

Mark Friedman 14′#86	never stuck	93 GP
Will Butcher 13′#123	45 pk	275 GP
Brian Cooper 12′#127	never stuck	0 GP
Ryan Pilon 15′#147	never stuck	0 GP
Ville Rasanen 17′#197	never stuck	0 GP

242. Jean-Samuel Daigneault28% NHL · 4.6y

Steven Ruggiero 15′#178	never stuck	0 GP
Ville Rasanen 17′#197	never stuck	0 GP
Matt Grzelcyk 12′#85	44 pk	596 GP
Joakim Ryan 12′#198	16 pk	145 GP
Gage Ausmus 13′#151	never stuck	0 GP

341. Cullen Mccrate23% NHL · 4.4y

Matt Benning 12′#175	26 pk	465 GP
John Gilmour 13′#198	never stuck	37 GP
Jeff Taylor 14′#203	never stuck	0 GP
Matt Roy 15′#194	29 pk	517 GP
Teemu Kivihalme 13′#140	never stuck	0 GP

368. Carter Amico23% NHL · 2.7y

Ryan Lindgren 16′#49	29 pk	481 GP
Patrick Sieloff 12′#42	never stuck	2 GP
Alexander Romanov 18′#38	26 pk	369 GP
Roland McKeown 14′#50	never stuck	16 GP
Dylan Blujus 12′#40	never stuck	0 GP

446. Cole Tuminaro17% NHL · 3.7y

Blake Hillman 16′#173	never stuck	4 GP
Spencer Stastney 18′#131	25 pk	117 GP
Jake Massie 15′#156	never stuck	0 GP
Adam Smith 16′#198	never stuck	0 GP
Ryan Rehill 14′#131	never stuck	0 GP

477. Maceo Phillips15% NHL · 2y

Nico Gross 18′#101	never stuck	0 GP
Casey Staum 16′#124	never stuck	0 GP
Ryan Lindgren 16′#49	29 pk	481 GP
Connor Hall 16′#77	never stuck	0 GP
Veeti Vainio 15′#141	never stuck	0 GP

518. Ludvig Lafton10% NHL · 4.3y

Gianluca Curcuruto 12′#182	never stuck	0 GP
Ryan Shea 15′#121	36 pk	150 GP
Matthew Berkovitz 14′#123	never stuck	0 GP
Cole Candella 16′#140	never stuck	0 GP
Kyle Jenkins 14′#187	never stuck	0 GP