Prospect Rankings
Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.
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How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.
Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.
| # | Player | Pos | League | Age | Org | Draft | P/GP | NHLe | P(NHL) | ETA | Upside band | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | Adam Goljer | D | SLOVAKIAPRO | 18.2 | LAK* | 26′ #49 | 0.26 | 7.3 | 60% | 4.4y @22.6 | 112243 | 21.3 |
| 136 | Tomas Kralovic | D | SLOVAKIAPRO | 21 | TBL* | 26′ #90 | 0.6 | 17.1 | 40% | 1.5y @22.5 | 01131 | 13.8 |
| 519 | Dmitri Kostenko | D | SLOVAKIAPRO | 23.9 | MTL* | 21′ #87 | 0.62 | 17.8 | 10% | 1.3y @25.2 | 0017 | 3.8 |
Who each prospect looks like
45. Adam Goljer60% NHL · 4.4y
| Martin Fehérváry 18′#46 | 27 pk | 380 GP |
| Jacob Cederholm 16′#97 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Urho Vaakanainen 17′#18 | 27 pk | 221 GP |
| Gabriel Carlsson 15′#29 | never stuck | 81 GP |
| Robert Hagg 13′#41 | 22 pk | 345 GP |
136. Tomas Kralovic40% NHL · 1.5y
| Trevor Carrick 12′#115 | never stuck | 7 GP |
| Joey Keane 18′#88 | never stuck | 2 GP |
| Cale Fleury 17′#87 | 11 pk | 100 GP |
| Kale Clague 16′#51 | never stuck | 94 GP |
| Filip Hronek 16′#53 | 52 pk | 533 GP |
519. Dmitri Kostenko10% NHL · 1.3y
| Casey Fitzgerald 16′#86 | never stuck | 63 GP |
| Linus Nassen 16′#89 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Vojtech Budik 16′#130 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Toni Utunen 18′#130 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Kasper Kotkansalo 17′#71 | never stuck | 0 GP |