Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
95	Alexander Grunin	D	MHL	18.1	OTT*	26′ #183	0.34	5	40%	4.7y @22.8	01545	16.4
262	Nikita Tyurin	D	MHL	19.1	DET*	25′ #140	0.6	8.9	25%	4y @23.1	0029	10
339	Kurban Limatov	D	MHL	19.4	CAR*	25′ #67	0.65	9.6	30%	3.4y @22.8	0026	8.3
516	Timur Kol	D	MHL	20	CAR*	24′ #168	0.83	12.2	10%	5.4y @25.4	0018	4
569	Ilyas Magomedsultanov	D	MHL	19.8	SJS*	25′ #115	0.41	6	10%	4.4y @24.2	0017	2.9
612	Roman Shokhrin	D	MHL	20.5	CAR*	24′ #184	0.33	4.9	5%	5.3y @25.8	000	1.6

Who each prospect looks like

95. Alexander Grunin40% NHL · 4.7y

Connor Clifton 13′#133	24 pk	434 GP
Gage Ausmus 13′#151	never stuck	0 GP
Keaton Thompson 13′#87	never stuck	0 GP
Michael Brodzinski 13′#141	never stuck	0 GP
Tanner Faith 14′#139	never stuck	0 GP

262. Nikita Tyurin25% NHL · 4y

Jeff Taylor 14′#203	never stuck	0 GP
Teemu Kivihalme 13′#140	never stuck	0 GP
Veeti Vainio 15′#141	never stuck	0 GP
Jaccob Slavin 12′#120	44 pk	784 GP
Ville Rasanen 17′#197	never stuck	0 GP

339. Kurban Limatov30% NHL · 3.4y

Ryan Lindgren 16′#49	29 pk	481 GP
Dmitry Semykin 18′#90	never stuck	0 GP
Dylan Labbe 13′#107	never stuck	0 GP
Patrick Sieloff 12′#42	never stuck	2 GP
Brendan Guhle 15′#51	never stuck	65 GP

516. Timur Kol10% NHL · 5.4y

Sami Niku 15′#198	never stuck	67 GP
Calle Sjalin 17′#145	never stuck	0 GP
Colin Miller 12′#151	41 pk	590 GP
Linus Hogberg 16′#139	never stuck	5 GP
Victor Berglund 17′#195	never stuck	0 GP

569. Ilyas Magomedsultanov10% NHL · 4.4y

Jocktan Chainey 17′#191	never stuck	0 GP
Terrance Amorosa 13′#132	never stuck	0 GP
Clayton Phillips 17′#93	never stuck	0 GP
Casey Staum 16′#124	never stuck	0 GP
Jacob Ragnarsson 18′#70	never stuck	0 GP

612. Roman Shokhrin5% NHL · 5.3y

Jacob Golden 17′#147	never stuck	0 GP
Robin Norell 13′#111	never stuck	0 GP
Radim Salda 18′#206	never stuck	0 GP
Matthew Hellickson 17′#214	never stuck	0 GP
Brandon Crawley 17′#123	never stuck	0 GP