Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
9	Xavier Villeneuve	D	LHJMQ	18.9	CHI*	26′ #34	1.03	23.6	68%	2.2y @21.1	152964	32.1
15	Quinn Norman	D	LHJMQ	16.7	—	—	0.22	5.1	53%	5.4y @22.1	02255	24.3
23	Malik L'Italien	D	LHJMQ	17.2	—	—	0.38	8.6	53%	4.9y @22.1	02053	22.8
24	Thomas Charbonneau	D	LHJMQ	17.2	—	—	0.23	5.3	53%	4.9y @22.1	02053	22.8
32	Cameron Minella	D	LHJMQ	17	—	—	0.14	3.2	50%	5.3y @22.3	02053	22.4
33	Justin Beaulieu	D	LHJMQ	17.1	—	—	0.18	4.1	50%	5.2y @22.3	02053	22.4
34	Xavier Cormier	D	LHJMQ	17.7	—	—	0.4	9.3	53%	4.7y @22.4	02050	22.2
42	Filip Kovalcik	D	LHJMQ	17.6	—	—	0.32	7.3	50%	4.7y @22.3	01850	21.5
67	Jacob Hamel	D	LHJMQ	17.9	—	—	0.07	1.6	45%	4.9y @22.8	01649	19.5
68	Cohen Paquet	D	LHJMQ	17.7	—	—	0.05	1.2	45%	5.1y @22.8	01649	19.5
74	Cooper Campbell	D	LHJMQ	17.9	—	—	0.2	4.6	42%	4.7y @22.6	01648	18.2
81	Biagio Jr Daniele	D	LHJMQ	18.1	—	—	0.3	6.8	42%	4.7y @22.8	01645	17.3
94	Brandon Delarosbil	D	LHJMQ	18.2	—	—	0.37	8.4	40%	4.6y @22.8	01545	16.4
97	Alex Huang	D	LHJMQ	19.1	NSH*	25′ #122	1.13	25.9	45%	2.9y @22	01151	16.2
102	Tommy Bleyl	D	LHJMQ	18.7	—	—	1.29	29.5	42%	3.7y @22.4	0845	15.8
112	Maxime Dodier	D	LHJMQ	18.3	—	—	0.08	1.9	38%	4.6y @22.9	0944	15.2
115	Alexandre Taillefer	D	LHJMQ	18.6	WPG*	26′ #135	0.61	13.9	38%	4.3y @22.9	0944	15
130	Charlie Morrison	D	LHJMQ	18.9	NYR*	26′ #77	0.32	7.3	38%	3.9y @22.8	0844	13.9
131	Benjamin Cossette Ayotte	D	LHJMQ	18.6	NSH*	26′ #179	0.61	14.1	35%	4.5y @23.1	0844	13.9
150	Emile-Alexandro Lemieux-Goupil	D	LHJMQ	18.3	—	—	0.1	2.2	33%	4.7y @23	0044	13
153	Aaron Murphy	D	LHJMQ	18.2	—	—	0.07	1.5	33%	4.7y @22.9	0044	12.9
180	Zachary Roussy	D	LHJMQ	18.5	—	—	0.17	3.9	33%	4.6y @23.1	0029	11.9
181	Antoine St-Laurent	D	LHJMQ	18.7	—	—	0.75	17.3	33%	5.4y @24.1	0029	11.9
193	Noah Laberge	D	LHJMQ	19.9	BUF*	25′ #135	0.9	20.7	38%	4.2y @24.1	0031	11.5
194	Luka Romaniak	D	LHJMQ	18.4	—	—	0.12	2.8	30%	5.2y @23.6	0029	11.5
195	Cameron Chartrand	D	LHJMQ	18.5	—	—	0.2	4.6	30%	5.1y @23.6	0029	11.5
196	Jacob Gouchie	D	LHJMQ	18.4	—	—	0.18	4.1	30%	5.2y @23.6	0029	11.5
209	Michel Myloserdnyy	D	LHJMQ	18.5	—	—	0.1	2.3	30%	5.1y @23.6	0029	11.2
210	Benjamin Girard	D	LHJMQ	18.5	—	—	0.19	4.3	30%	5.1y @23.6	0029	11.2
211	Oskar Drabczynski	D	LHJMQ	18.5	—	—	0.23	5.2	30%	5.1y @23.6	0029	11.2
215	Olivier Duhamel	D	LHJMQ	18.7	—	—	0.45	10.3	30%	5.4y @24.1	0029	11.1
216	Noah McKinnon	D	LHJMQ	18.7	—	—	0.43	9.8	30%	5.4y @24.1	0029	11.1
217	Louis-Félix Gagnon	D	LHJMQ	18.6	—	—	0.2	4.6	30%	5y @23.6	0029	11.1
227	Dominik Necak	D	LHJMQ	18.4	—	—	0.09	2.1	28%	4.7y @23.1	0029	10.8
228	Guillaume Gleason	D	LHJMQ	18.4	—	—	0.09	2	28%	4.7y @23.1	0029	10.8
238	Bo Damphousse	D	LHJMQ	18.8	—	—	0.32	7.3	30%	5.6y @24.4	0029	10.5
239	Eddy Doyle	D	LHJMQ	18.8	—	—	0.31	7	30%	5.6y @24.4	0029	10.5
240	Jackson Batchilder	D	LHJMQ	18.5	—	—	0.15	3.4	28%	4.6y @23.1	0029	10.5
241	Freddy Meyer	D	LHJMQ	18.8	—	—	0.29	6.7	30%	5.6y @24.4	0029	10.5
253	Tomas Lavoie	D	LHJMQ	20.4	UTA*	24′ #89	0.85	19.5	25%	2.4y @22.8	0038	10.2
259	Alonso Gosselin	D	LHJMQ	19	—	—	0.44	10	25%	5.1y @24.1	0029	10
260	Will Reynolds	D	LHJMQ	19	SEA*	25′ #68	0.41	9.4	25%	3.3y @22.3	0029	10
264	Jacob De Ladurantaye	D	LHJMQ	18.9	—	—	0.19	4.4	28%	5.5y @24.4	0029	9.9
265	Nikita Voyaga	D	LHJMQ	18.8	—	—	0.17	3.9	28%	5.6y @24.4	0029	9.9
266	Justin Blais	D	LHJMQ	18.9	—	—	0.26	5.9	28%	5.5y @24.4	0029	9.9
284	Alexis Fortin	D	LHJMQ	18.9	—	—	0.14	3.3	25%	5.2y @24.1	0029	9.3
306	Louis-Alex Tremblay	D	LHJMQ	19.5	—	—	0.92	21.2	28%	4.6y @24.1	0029	8.9
311	Maddox Labre	D	LHJMQ	19.2	—	—	0.34	7.8	25%	4.9y @24.1	0029	8.8
317	Will Murphy	D	LHJMQ	19	DET*	25′ #172	0.21	4.8	23%	4y @23	0029	8.7
332	Drew Allison	D	LHJMQ	19.1	—	—	0.26	5.9	23%	4.5y @23.6	0029	8.4
333	Owen Ronson	D	LHJMQ	19	—	—	0.23	5.2	23%	4.6y @23.6	0029	8.4
334	Brenden Espenell	D	LHJMQ	19.1	—	—	0.19	4.3	25%	5y @24.1	0029	8.4
337	Owen Conrad	D	LHJMQ	19.4	—	—	0.46	10.5	23%	4.3y @23.7	0026	8.3
352	Everett Baldwin	D	LHJMQ	19.6	TBL*	25′ #151	0.71	16.3	23%	3.7y @23.3	0026	7.7
353	Reinis Auzins	D	LHJMQ	19	—	—	0.09	2	23%	5.1y @24.1	0026	7.7
362	Connor Sturgeon	D	LHJMQ	19.1	—	—	0.26	6	20%	4y @23.1	0029	7.3
366	Carlos Händel	D	LHJMQ	19.4	—	—	0.5	11.5	20%	4.7y @24.1	0026	7.2
369	Carlos Handel	D	LHJMQ	19.4	MTL*	25′ #177	0.5	11.5	20%	4.7y @24.1	0026	7.2
381	Marcus Kearsey	D	LHJMQ	20.4	—	—	0.89	20.4	23%	2.4y @22.8	0026	6.9
382	Luca Nappiot	D	LHJMQ	19.6	—	—	0.38	8.8	17%	4.5y @24.1	0026	6.9
384	Jordan Tourigny	D	LHJMQ	21.5	—	—	0.92	21.1	17%	4.4y @25.9	0027	6.8
385	Marc-Olivier Beaudry	D	LHJMQ	21.1	—	—	0.88	20.3	17%	4.8y @25.9	0027	6.8
386	Guus Van der Kaaij	D	LHJMQ	19.3	—	—	0.34	7.9	20%	4.8y @24.1	0026	6.8
394	Jan Golicic	D	LHJMQ	20.1	TBL*	24′ #118	0.69	15.8	23%	5.7y @25.8	0022	6.6
403	Tristan Langlois	D	LHJMQ	19.1	—	—	0.13	3	17%	3.9y @23	0026	6.5
407	Alexis Mathieu	D	LHJMQ	19.2	ANA*	25′ #136	0.23	5.2	17%	3.6y @22.8	0026	6.4
413	Mathéo Lepage	D	LHJMQ	19.8	—	—	0.62	14.2	15%	5.4y @25.2	0026	6.3
418	PJ Fagan	D	LHJMQ	19.3	—	—	0.21	4.8	17%	3.8y @23.1	0026	6.2
423	Aiden McCullough	D	LHJMQ	19.2	—	—	0.22	5.1	17%	3.8y @23	0026	6
424	Brady Peddle	D	LHJMQ	19.2	PIT*	25′ #91	0.31	7	17%	3.1y @22.3	0026	6
425	Mickael Chapdelaine	D	LHJMQ	19.2	—	—	0.14	3.2	17%	3.8y @23	0026	6
429	Alexis Bernier	D	LHJMQ	20.2	SEA*	24′ #73	0.57	13.1	12%	4.3y @24.5	0016	5.9
430	Anthony Paré	D	LHJMQ	20	—	—	0.47	10.8	7%	4.1y @24.1	0022	5.9
434	Benjamin Rioux	D	LHJMQ	19.6	—	—	0.22	5.1	17%	4.5y @24.1	0025	5.8
435	Mathieu Plante	D	LHJMQ	19.9	—	—	0.59	13.6	10%	4.8y @24.7	0022	5.8
444	Patryk Zubek	D	LHJMQ	19.3	—	—	0.21	4.7	17%	5.3y @24.6	0025	5.5
445	Cal Uens	D	LHJMQ	21.5	—	—	0.78	17.9	15%	4.5y @26	0026	5.5
459	Sydney Gagnon	D	LHJMQ	19.8	—	—	0.28	6.5	12%	4.3y @24.1	0026	5.1
461	Evan Dépatie	D	LHJMQ	20	—	—	0.71	16.2	10%	4.3y @24.3	0018	5
462	Étienne Desjardins	D	LHJMQ	19.9	—	—	0.3	6.9	12%	6.2y @26.1	0025	5
465	Peteris Bulans	D	LHJMQ	21.5	—	—	0.65	14.8	12%	4.4y @25.9	0020	4.9
466	Jonathan Prud'homme	D	LHJMQ	19.6	—	—	0.24	5.5	15%	4.5y @24.1	0025	4.9
472	Axel Dufresne	D	LHJMQ	21	—	—	0.61	14	10%	2.9y @23.9	0026	4.8
473	Simon-Pier Brunet	D	LHJMQ	20.8	BUF*	24′ #123	0.48	11.1	15%	4y @24.8	0019	4.8
483	Théo Lemieux	D	LHJMQ	21.3	—	—	0.44	10.2	12%	2.6y @23.9	0019	4.5
484	Xavier Daigle	D	LHJMQ	21.4	—	—	0.45	10.4	10%	2.5y @23.9	0019	4.5
485	Jérémie Dumas-Larouche	D	LHJMQ	21.4	—	—	0.33	7.7	10%	2.5y @23.9	0019	4.5
486	Emile Perron	D	LHJMQ	21.4	—	—	0.36	8.3	10%	2.5y @23.9	0019	4.5
487	Jack Martin	D	LHJMQ	21.5	—	—	0.43	9.8	10%	4.5y @26	0014	4.5
494	Hemrick Carbonneau	D	LHJMQ	19.4	—	—	0.22	5.1	12%	4.7y @24.1	0025	4.3
501	James Roberts	D	LHJMQ	19.4	—	—	0.1	2.3	12%	4.7y @24.1	0023	4.2
502	Drew McLennan	D	LHJMQ	19.3	—	—	0.12	2.9	15%	4.8y @24.1	0025	4.2
503	Owen Phillips	D	LHJMQ	20.6	—	—	0.64	14.7	12%	3.3y @23.9	0019	4.2
504	Jayden Lazare	D	LHJMQ	19.3	—	—	0.12	2.9	15%	4.8y @24.1	0025	4.2
507	Justin Chiras	D	LHJMQ	19.2	—	—	0	0	12%	4.7y @23.9	0025	4.1
508	Jean-Félix Lapointe	D	LHJMQ	21.1	—	—	0.29	6.7	10%	2.8y @23.9	0019	4.1
509	Eduard Bondar	D	LHJMQ	19.6	—	—	0.12	2.7	12%	3.9y @23.5	0025	4.1
515	Logan Brennan	D	LHJMQ	19.9	—	—	0.17	3.8	10%	5y @24.9	0023	4
521	Mattias Gilbert	D	LHJMQ	20.6	—	—	0.5	11.5	12%	5.2y @25.8	0014	3.8
522	Adam Fortier-Gendron	D	LHJMQ	20.6	—	—	0.59	13.6	12%	5.2y @25.8	0014	3.8

Who each prospect looks like

9. Xavier Villeneuve68% NHL · 2.2y

Henri Jokiharju 17′#29	30 pk	448 GP
Jordan Schmaltz 12′#25	never stuck	42 GP
Olli Maatta 12′#22	55 pk	804 GP
Erik Brannstrom 17′#15	36 pk	294 GP
Jeremy Roy 15′#31	never stuck	0 GP

15. Quinn Norman53% NHL · 5.4y

Jake McCabe 12′#44	31 pk	723 GP
Tanner Faith 14′#139	never stuck	0 GP
Keaton Thompson 13′#87	never stuck	0 GP
Mike Matheson 12′#23	62 pk	705 GP
Joakim Ryan 12′#198	16 pk	145 GP

23. Malik L'Italien53% NHL · 4.9y

Jake McCabe 12′#44	31 pk	723 GP
Tanner Faith 14′#139	never stuck	0 GP
Keaton Thompson 13′#87	never stuck	0 GP
Joakim Ryan 12′#198	16 pk	145 GP
Mike Matheson 12′#23	62 pk	705 GP

24. Thomas Charbonneau53% NHL · 4.9y

Jake McCabe 12′#44	31 pk	723 GP
Tanner Faith 14′#139	never stuck	0 GP
Keaton Thompson 13′#87	never stuck	0 GP
Joakim Ryan 12′#198	16 pk	145 GP
Mike Matheson 12′#23	62 pk	705 GP

32. Cameron Minella50% NHL · 5.3y

Jake McCabe 12′#44	31 pk	723 GP
Tanner Faith 14′#139	never stuck	0 GP
Keaton Thompson 13′#87	never stuck	0 GP
Mike Matheson 12′#23	62 pk	705 GP
Gage Ausmus 13′#151	never stuck	0 GP

33. Justin Beaulieu50% NHL · 5.2y

Tanner Faith 14′#139	never stuck	0 GP
Keaton Thompson 13′#87	never stuck	0 GP
Jake McCabe 12′#44	31 pk	723 GP
Mike Matheson 12′#23	62 pk	705 GP
Joakim Ryan 12′#198	16 pk	145 GP

34. Xavier Cormier53% NHL · 4.7y

Keaton Thompson 13′#87	never stuck	0 GP
Tanner Faith 14′#139	never stuck	0 GP
Connor Clifton 13′#133	24 pk	434 GP
Gage Ausmus 13′#151	never stuck	0 GP
Michael Brodzinski 13′#141	never stuck	0 GP

42. Filip Kovalcik50% NHL · 4.7y

Joakim Ryan 12′#198	16 pk	145 GP
Tanner Faith 14′#139	never stuck	0 GP
Keaton Thompson 13′#87	never stuck	0 GP
Gage Ausmus 13′#151	never stuck	0 GP
Michael Downing 13′#97	never stuck	0 GP

67. Jacob Hamel45% NHL · 4.9y

Keaton Thompson 13′#87	never stuck	0 GP
Tanner Faith 14′#139	never stuck	0 GP
Gage Ausmus 13′#151	never stuck	0 GP
Connor Clifton 13′#133	24 pk	434 GP
Michael Brodzinski 13′#141	never stuck	0 GP

68. Cohen Paquet45% NHL · 5.1y

Keaton Thompson 13′#87	never stuck	0 GP
Tanner Faith 14′#139	never stuck	0 GP
Connor Clifton 13′#133	24 pk	434 GP
Gage Ausmus 13′#151	never stuck	0 GP
Michael Brodzinski 13′#141	never stuck	0 GP

74. Cooper Campbell42% NHL · 4.7y

Joakim Ryan 12′#198	16 pk	145 GP
Tanner Faith 14′#139	never stuck	0 GP
Gage Ausmus 13′#151	never stuck	0 GP
Michael Downing 13′#97	never stuck	0 GP
Keaton Thompson 13′#87	never stuck	0 GP

81. Biagio Jr Daniele42% NHL · 4.7y

Joakim Ryan 12′#198	16 pk	145 GP
Gage Ausmus 13′#151	never stuck	0 GP
Connor Clifton 13′#133	24 pk	434 GP
Keaton Thompson 13′#87	never stuck	0 GP
Michael Downing 13′#97	never stuck	0 GP