Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
14	Carter Yakemchuk	D	AHLPRO	20.9	OTT	24′ #7	0.74	26.7	62%	1.9y @22.8	132652	24.9
54	Oliver Bonk	D	AHLPRO	21.6	PHI	23′ #22	0.41	14.9	60%	1.2y @22.8	82244	20.8
59	Stian Solberg	D	AHLPRO	20.6	ANA	24′ #23	0.34	12.2	60%	2.1y @22.7	101942	20.1
65	Tanner Molendyk	D	AHLPRO	21.5	NSH*	23′ #24	0.38	13.8	55%	1.3y @22.8	01844	19.6
69	Sam Rinzel	D	AHLPRO	22.2	CHI	22′ #25	0.61	22	45%	1y @23.2	01645	19.2
70	David Reinbacher	D	AHLPRO	21.8	MTL	23′ #5	0.42	15.2	53%	1y @22.8	01842	18.9
71	Dominik Badinka	D	AHLPRO	20.7	CAR*	24′ #34	0.21	7.4	57%	2y @22.7	01834	18.6
72	Dmitri Simashev	D	AHLPRO	21.5	UTA	—	0.88	31.6	47%	2.4y @23.9	01352	18.6
76	Kevin Korchinski	D	AHLPRO	22.2	CHI	22′ #7	0.49	17.7	45%	0.6y @22.8	01642	18
80	Luca Cagnoni	D	AHLPRO	21.7	SJS*	23′ #123	0.64	23.2	45%	1.6y @23.3	01344	17.3
82	Tyson Jugnauth	D	AHLPRO	22.3	SEA*	22′ #100	0.62	22.6	40%	1.7y @24	01344	17.2
84	Ty Nelson	D	AHLPRO	22.4	SEA*	22′ #68	0.56	20	35%	1.4y @23.8	01352	17.1
86	Leon Muggli	D	AHLPRO	20.1	WSH*	24′ #52	0.26	9.4	53%	2.4y @22.5	01832	17
107	Luca Marrelli	D	AHLPRO	20.9	CBJ*	24′ #86	0.5	18	45%	1.6y @22.5	01331	15.3
118	Theo Lindstein	D	AHLPRO	21.6	STL*	23′ #29	0.24	8.6	50%	1.2y @22.8	01432	14.8
119	Artem Duda	D	AHLPRO	22.4	ARI*	22′ #36	0.48	17.4	33%	1.1y @23.5	01332	14.7
129	Tristan Bertucci	D	AHLPRO	21.1	DAL*	23′ #61	0.38	13.7	45%	1.7y @22.8	01329	14
133	Owen Pickering	D	AHLPRO	22.6	PIT*	22′ #21	0.41	14.9	35%	0.7y @23.3	01132	13.8
145	Tristan Luneau	D	AHLPRO	22.6	ANA*	22′ #53	0.59	21.1	28%	1.3y @23.9	0041	13.3
147	Caden Price	D	AHLPRO	21	SEA*	23′ #84	0.26	9.4	42%	1.7y @22.7	01129	13.1
151	Sawyer Mynio	D	AHLPRO	21.3	VAN*	23′ #89	0.36	13.1	35%	1.2y @22.5	01129	12.9
164	Adam Engström	D	AHLPRO	22.8	MTL	—	0.76	27.3	35%	1.4y @24.2	0037	12.6
165	Seamus Casey	D	AHLPRO	22.6	NJD*	22′ #46	0.66	23.6	25%	1.2y @23.8	0041	12.5
167	Isaiah George	D	AHLPRO	22.5	NYI*	22′ #98	0.38	13.8	38%	2y @24.5	0727	12.3
168	Andrew Gibson	D	AHLPRO	21.5	DET*	23′ #42	0.18	6.6	45%	1.3y @22.8	01129	12.3
173	Elias Salomonsson	D	AHLPRO	22	WPG*	22′ #55	0.31	11.2	40%	1.3y @23.3	0729	12.1
175	Frederic Brunet	D	AHLPRO	23	BOS	22′ #132	0.55	20	33%	1.2y @24.2	0037	11.9
183	Noah Warren	D	AHLPRO	22.1	ANA	22′ #42	0.2	7.1	40%	0.7y @22.8	0029	11.8
184	Etienne Morin	D	AHLPRO	21.5	NJD	23′ #48	0.17	6	42%	1.3y @22.8	01029	11.8
185	Ryan Ufko	D	AHLPRO	23.3	NSH*	21′ #115	0.85	30.5	28%	0.7y @24	0037	11.7
187	Hunter Brzustewicz	D	AHLPRO	21.7	CGY	23′ #75	0.38	13.8	33%	1.1y @22.8	0032	11.7
197	Jorian Donovan	D	AHLPRO	22.4	OTT	22′ #136	0.34	12.4	38%	2.1y @24.5	0029	11.3
198	Christian Kyrou	D	AHLPRO	22.9	DAL*	22′ #50	0.54	19.5	23%	1.2y @24.1	0027	11.3
205	Lukas Dragicevic	D	AHLPRO	21.3	SEA*	23′ #57	0.26	9.2	38%	1.5y @22.8	0729	11.2
218	Jesse Pulkkinen	D	AHLPRO	21.6	NYI*	24′ #54	0.1	3.6	33%	1.2y @22.8	0429	11
222	Beau Akey	D	AHLPRO	21.5	EDM*	23′ #56	0.24	8.6	40%	1.3y @22.8	0429	10.8
229	Quinton Burns	D	AHLPRO	21.4	STL*	23′ #74	0.16	5.8	35%	1.4y @22.8	0029	10.7
232	Jorian Donovan	D	AHLPRO	22.3	OTT*	22′ #136	0.34	12.4	35%	1.9y @24.2	0026	10.6
246	Ryan Chesley	D	AHLPRO	22.5	WSH*	22′ #37	0.25	9	30%	0.8y @23.3	0027	10.3
251	Ludvig Jansson	D	AHLPRO	22.7	FLA	22′ #125	0.35	12.8	30%	2.2y @24.9	0027	10.2
267	Angus Booth	D	AHLPRO	22.3	LAK	22′ #116	0.3	10.6	33%	2.3y @24.6	0026	9.8
268	Étienne Morin	D	AHLPRO	21.5	—	—	0.17	6	25%	3.1y @24.6	0026	9.8
274	David Jiříček	D	AHLPRO	22.7	PHI	—	0.52	18.9	33%	1.8y @24.5	0029	9.7
275	Finn Harding	D	AHLPRO	21.5	PIT*	24′ #223	0.41	14.7	30%	2.6y @24.1	0026	9.6
281	David Špaček	D	AHLPRO	23.5	MIN	—	0.61	22	25%	0.6y @24.1	0031	9.3
282	Blake Smith	D	AHLPRO	21.9	—	—	0.15	5.2	28%	3.2y @25.1	0026	9.3
286	Maveric Lamoureux	D	AHLPRO	22.6	UTA	22′ #29	0.31	11.1	23%	0.9y @23.5	0027	9.2
291	Noah Chadwick	D	AHLPRO	21.3	TOR*	23′ #185	0.34	12.2	28%	2.7y @24	0026	9.1
292	Jakub Dvorak	D	AHLPRO	21.2	LAK	23′ #54	0.16	5.6	35%	1.6y @22.8	0026	9.1
298	Charles Alexis Legault	D	AHLPRO	23	CAR*	23′ #139	0.33	12	25%	1.9y @24.9	0027	9
300	Ethan Samson	D	AHLPRO	23	PHI*	21′ #174	0.44	15.9	28%	1.9y @24.9	0027	8.9
301	Jakub Dvořák	D	AHLPRO	21.2	—	—	0.16	5.6	25%	2.8y @24	0024	8.9
307	Cam Allen	D	AHLPRO	21.6	WSH*	23′ #136	0.32	11.5	28%	3y @24.6	0024	8.8
308	Kirill Kudryavtsev	D	AHLPRO	22.5	—	—	0.45	16.4	30%	2.4y @24.9	0026	8.8
309	Jake Furlong	D	AHLPRO	22.5	SJS*	22′ #140	0.24	8.7	28%	2.9y @25.4	0026	8.8
320	Chase Pietila	D	AHLPRO	22.5	PIT*	24′ #111	0.24	8.7	28%	1.6y @24.1	0026	8.6
322	Kaden Hammell	D	AHLPRO	21.4	SEA*	23′ #148	0.3	10.7	25%	2.7y @24.1	0023	8.6
323	Marek Alscher	D	AHLPRO	22.4	FLA	22′ #93	0.21	7.6	28%	2.1y @24.5	0026	8.6
326	Mattias Havelid	D	AHLPRO	22.6	SJS*	22′ #45	0.34	12.3	20%	1.5y @24.1	0027	8.5
350	Michael Buchinger	D	AHLPRO	22.3	STL*	22′ #88	0.19	6.8	23%	2.5y @24.8	0026	7.8
354	Jack Peart	D	AHLPRO	23.3	MIN	21′ #54	0.25	8.9	20%	1.5y @24.8	0027	7.6
360	Jackson Dorrington	D	AHLPRO	22.4	NYR	22′ #176	0.16	5.7	23%	3.4y @25.8	0026	7.4
364	Jackson Edward	D	AHLPRO	22.5	BOS*	22′ #200	0.16	5.8	20%	2.9y @25.4	0026	7.2
370	Calle Odelius	D	AHLPRO	22.2	NYI	22′ #65	0.15	5.4	25%	1.9y @24.1	0026	7.1
396	Topias Vilen	D	AHLPRO	23.4	NJD	21′ #129	0.44	16	20%	1.4y @24.8	0024	6.5
398	Viliam Kmec	D	AHLPRO	22.6	—	—	0.25	8.9	20%	1.9y @24.5	0026	6.5
399	Marc-André Gaudet	D	AHLPRO	22.8	—	—	0.38	13.6	23%	1.7y @24.5	0026	6.5
404	Aleksi Heimosalmi	D	AHLPRO	23.3	CAR*	21′ #44	0.33	11.8	15%	0.8y @24.1	0026	6.4
405	Tyson Hinds	D	AHLPRO	23.4	ANA	21′ #76	0.31	11.1	15%	2.4y @25.8	0024	6.4
409	Corson Ceulemans	D	AHLPRO	23.3	CBJ	21′ #25	0.38	13.5	15%	0.8y @24.1	0026	6.3
410	Sean Behrens	D	AHLPRO	23.4	COL*	21′ #61	0.42	15.1	17%	1.1y @24.5	0024	6.3
411	Chas Sharpe	D	AHLPRO	22.7	—	—	0.27	9.8	23%	2.2y @24.9	0026	6.3
414	Otto Salin	D	AHLPRO	22.5	LAK	22′ #148	0.12	4.2	20%	3.3y @25.8	0022	6.2
415	Scott Morrow	D	AHLPRO	23.8	CAR*	21′ #40	0.56	20.2	12%	now @24	0020	6.2
416	Nolan Allan	D	AHLPRO	23.3	CHI*	21′ #32	0.28	10.1	12%	0.8y @24.1	0026	6.2
419	Carson Lambos	D	AHLPRO	23.6	MIN	21′ #26	0.27	9.8	12%	0.5y @24.1	0026	6.1
420	Artem Grushnikov	D	AHLPRO	23.4	DAL*	21′ #48	0.04	1.3	15%	1.9y @25.3	0027	6
427	Vsevolod Komarov	D	AHLPRO	22.6	BUF	22′ #134	0.2	7.2	17%	2.8y @25.4	0024	5.9
437	Djibril Touré	D	AHLPRO	23.2	—	—	0.11	3.8	20%	2.7y @25.9	0024	5.7
441	Nikita Novikov	D	AHLPRO	23.1	BUF*	21′ #188	0.33	12	20%	2.7y @25.8	0024	5.5
448	Dmitry Kuzmin	D	AHLPRO	23.3	WPG*	21′ #82	0.33	11.8	12%	2.6y @25.9	0017	5.3
449	Tomas Hamara	D	AHLPRO	22.5	OTT	22′ #87	0.12	4.5	17%	2.8y @25.3	0022	5.3
454	Braden Hache	D	AHLPRO	23.3	FLA*	21′ #210	0.15	5.5	17%	2.5y @25.8	0024	5.2
455	Charlie Wright	D	AHLPRO	22.8	—	—	0.04	1.6	17%	2.1y @24.9	0024	5.2
456	Shai Buium	D	AHLPRO	23.4	DET*	21′ #36	0.39	14	12%	0.3y @23.7	0017	5.1
458	Jack Matier	D	AHLPRO	23.4	NSH*	21′ #124	0.25	9	15%	2.5y @25.9	0024	5.1
460	Joe Arntsen	D	AHLPRO	23.2	—	—	0.11	3.9	17%	2.7y @25.9	0020	5
463	Tomas Hamara	D	AHLPRO	23.5	OTT*	22′ #87	0.12	4.5	12%	2.3y @25.8	0024	4.9
474	Ty Gallagher	D	AHLPRO	23.5	BOS*	21′ #217	0.47	16.8	12%	1.4y @24.9	0024	4.7
478	Ethan Del Mastro	D	AHLPRO	23.6	CHI*	21′ #105	0.4	14.4	12%	1.3y @24.9	0019	4.5
489	Stanislav Svozil	D	AHLPRO	23.6	CBJ*	21′ #69	0.17	6.2	10%	2.3y @25.9	0016	4.4
511	Ville Ottavainen	D	AHLPRO	24	SEA*	21′ #99	0.32	11.6	10%	2.1y @26.1	0015	4
520	Guillaume Richard	D	AHLPRO	23.5	CBJ	21′ #101	0.26	9.3	12%	2.3y @25.8	0017	3.8
524	Damien Carfagna	D	AHLPRO	23.7	—	—	0.33	12	10%	1.7y @25.4	0015	3.7
530	Max Wanner	D	AHLPRO	23.4	—	—	0.1	3.7	12%	2.5y @25.9	0015	3.6
546	Roman Schmidt	D	AHLPRO	23.5	TBL*	21′ #96	0.05	1.9	7%	2.5y @26	0011	3.4
554	Isaac Belliveau	D	AHLPRO	23.7	PIT*	21′ #154	0.17	6	10%	2.4y @26.1	0015	3.1
555	Ty Murchison	D	AHLPRO	23.5	PHI	21′ #158	0.21	7.5	10%	2.6y @26.1	0015	3.1
556	Bryce Montgomery	D	AHLPRO	23.8	CAR	21′ #170	0.17	6	10%	2.3y @26.1	0015	3.1
557	Maximus Wanner	D	AHLPRO	23.4	EDM*	21′ #212	0.1	3.7	12%	2.7y @26.1	0015	3.1

Who each prospect looks like

14. Carter Yakemchuk62% NHL · 1.9y

Julius Honka 14′#14	never stuck	87 GP
Tony DeAngelo 14′#19	65 pk	482 GP
Ryan Pulock 13′#15	42 pk	636 GP
Haydn Fleury 14′#7	26 pk	345 GP
Olli Juolevi 16′#5	never stuck	41 GP

54. Oliver Bonk60% NHL · 1.2y

Matthew Finn 12′#35	never stuck	0 GP
Lucas Johansen 16′#28	never stuck	9 GP
Pierre-Olivier Joseph 17′#23	23 pk	225 GP
Ryan Merkley 18′#21	never stuck	39 GP
Travis Sanheim 14′#17	45 pk	660 GP

59. Stian Solberg60% NHL · 2.1y

Gustav Lindstrom 17′#38	18 pk	174 GP
Ryan Pulock 13′#15	42 pk	636 GP
Matthew Finn 12′#35	never stuck	0 GP
Robert Hagg 13′#41	22 pk	345 GP
Timothy Liljegren 17′#17	34 pk	311 GP

65. Tanner Molendyk55% NHL · 1.3y

Ryan Merkley 18′#21	never stuck	39 GP
Lucas Johansen 16′#28	never stuck	9 GP
Pierre-Olivier Joseph 17′#23	23 pk	225 GP
Travis Dermott 15′#34	29 pk	348 GP
Josh Jacobs 14′#41	never stuck	3 GP

69. Sam Rinzel45% NHL · 1y

Jordan Schmaltz 12′#25	never stuck	42 GP
Josh Brook 17′#56	never stuck	0 GP
Sean Durzi 18′#52	44 pk	302 GP
Tony DeAngelo 14′#19	65 pk	482 GP
Robin Salo 17′#46	never stuck	32 GP

70. David Reinbacher53% NHL · 1y

Olli Juolevi 16′#5	never stuck	41 GP
Haydn Fleury 14′#7	26 pk	345 GP
Cal Foote 17′#14	14 pk	145 GP
Jakub Zboril 15′#13	never stuck	76 GP
Julius Honka 14′#14	never stuck	87 GP

71. Dominik Badinka57% NHL · 2y

Gustav Lindstrom 17′#38	18 pk	174 GP
Robert Hagg 13′#41	22 pk	345 GP
Patrick Sieloff 12′#42	never stuck	2 GP
Andreas Englund 14′#40	10 pk	200 GP
Jonas Siegenthaler 15′#57	22 pk	449 GP

72. Dmitri Simashev47% NHL · 2.4y

Sebastian Aho 17′#139	27 pk	190 GP
Christian Djoos 12′#195	25 pk	155 GP
Sami Niku 15′#198	never stuck	67 GP
Colin Miller 12′#151	41 pk	590 GP
Markus Nutivaara 15′#189	31 pk	275 GP

76. Kevin Korchinski45% NHL · 0.6y

Olli Juolevi 16′#5	never stuck	41 GP
Haydn Fleury 14′#7	26 pk	345 GP
Cal Foote 17′#14	14 pk	145 GP
Travis Sanheim 14′#17	45 pk	660 GP
Julius Honka 14′#14	never stuck	87 GP

80. Luca Cagnoni45% NHL · 1.6y

Joey Keane 18′#88	never stuck	2 GP
Declan Chisholm 18′#150	23 pk	125 GP
Lucas Carlsson 16′#110	never stuck	73 GP
Andrei Mironov 15′#101	never stuck	10 GP
Markus Nutivaara 15′#189	31 pk	275 GP

82. Tyson Jugnauth40% NHL · 1.7y

Lucas Carlsson 16′#110	never stuck	73 GP
Tarmo Reunanen 16′#98	never stuck	4 GP
Andrei Mironov 15′#101	never stuck	10 GP
Reilly Walsh 17′#81	never stuck	1 GP
Markus Nutivaara 15′#189	31 pk	275 GP

84. Ty Nelson35% NHL · 1.4y

Reilly Walsh 17′#81	never stuck	1 GP
Tarmo Reunanen 16′#98	never stuck	4 GP
Lucas Carlsson 16′#110	never stuck	73 GP
Sean Durzi 18′#52	44 pk	302 GP
Madison Bowey 13′#53	26 pk	158 GP