Prospect Rankings
Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.
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How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.
Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.
| # | Player | Pos | League | Age | Org | Draft | P/GP | NHLe | P(NHL) | ETA | Upside band | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | Ilya Protas | F | AHLPRO | 20.1 | WSH | 24′ #75 | 0.96 | 34.5 | 68% | 2.7y @22.8 | 183365 | 33.3 |
| 96 | Lynden Lakovic | F | WHL | 19.7 | WSH* | 25′ #27 | 1.32 | 32.4 | 57% | 2.4y @22.1 | 143061 | 30.1 |
| 100 | Milton Gastrin | F | ALLSVENSKANPRO | 19.2 | WSH* | 25′ #37 | 0.62 | 19.2 | 57% | 3.1y @22.3 | 42968 | 29.8 |
| 181 | Andrew Cristall | F | AHLPRO | 21.5 | WSH* | 23′ #40 | 0.83 | 30.1 | 62% | 1.6y @23.1 | 63153 | 27.1 |
| 227 | Oliver Suvanto | F | LIIGAPRO | 18 | WSH | 26′ #18 | 0.23 | 10.1 | 55% | 4.4y @22.4 | 01964 | 25.6 |
| 228 | Cole Hutson | D | NCAA | 20.1 | WSH | 24′ #43 | 0.91 | 30.7 | 62% | 2.6y @22.7 | 02552 | 25.4 |
| 236 | Terik Parascak | F | WHL | 20.2 | WSH | 24′ #17 | 1.3 | 31.9 | 53% | 2.6y @22.8 | 02355 | 25 |
| 281 | Ivan Miroshnichenko | F | AHLPRO | 22.5 | WSH | 22′ #20 | 0.83 | 29.9 | 57% | 0.8y @23.3 | 02743 | 23.4 |
| 292 | Tyus Sparks | F | WHL | 18.6 | WSH* | 26′ #101 | 0.94 | 23 | 47% | 3.7y @22.3 | 01956 | 22.9 |
| 491 | Alexander Suzdalev | F | AHLPRO | 22.5 | WSH* | 22′ #70 | 0.59 | 21.1 | 40% | 1.3y @23.8 | 01937 | 17.9 |
| 527 | Leon Muggli | D | AHLPRO | 20.1 | WSH* | 24′ #52 | 0.26 | 9.4 | 53% | 2.4y @22.5 | 01832 | 17 |
| 699 | Eriks Mateiko | F | AHLPRO | 20.8 | WSH* | 24′ #90 | 0.22 | 8 | 33% | 1.8y @22.6 | 0055 | 13.4 |
| 783 | Maxim Schafer | F | LHJMQ | 19.3 | WSH* | 25′ #96 | 0.92 | 21.2 | 28% | 3.7y @23 | 0046 | 12.4 |
| 938 | Ryan Chesley | D | AHLPRO | 22.5 | WSH* | 22′ #37 | 0.25 | 9 | 30% | 0.8y @23.3 | 0027 | 10.3 |
| 1047 | Cam Allen | D | AHLPRO | 21.6 | WSH* | 23′ #136 | 0.32 | 11.5 | 28% | 3y @24.6 | 0024 | 8.8 |
| 1288 | Jackson Crowder | F | USHL | 19.3 | WSH* | 25′ #155 | 1.02 | 20.1 | 12% | 3.8y @23.1 | 0020 | 6.6 |
| 1636 | Miroslav Satan | F | OHL | 20.5 | WSH* | 24′ #212 | 0 | 0 | 10% | 4.4y @24.9 | 0021 | 3.9 |
| 1742 | Brett Hyland | F | NCAAPRO | 23.5 | WSH* | 23′ #200 | 0.5 | 16.8 | 12% | 3.3y @26.8 | 0020 | 3.4 |
| 1908 | Haakon Hanelt | F | DELPRO | 23.2 | WSH* | 21′ #151 | 0.22 | 7.5 | 5% | 0.7y @23.9 | 000 | 2 |
Who each prospect looks like
53. Ilya Protas68% NHL · 2.7y
| Emil Bemstrom 17′#117 | 33 pk | 242 GP |
| Jack Drury 18′#42 | 30 pk | 268 GP |
| Lucas Wallmark 14′#97 | 31 pk | 187 GP |
| Artturi Lehkonen 13′#55 | 65 pk | 660 GP |
| Carl Grundstrom 16′#57 | 27 pk | 339 GP |
96. Lynden Lakovic57% NHL · 2.4y
| Jonathan Dahlen 16′#42 | never stuck | 61 GP |
| Luke Kunin 16′#15 | 41 pk | 496 GP |
| Emile Poirier 13′#22 | never stuck | 8 GP |
| Jayce Hawryluk 14′#32 | never stuck | 98 GP |
| Nick Sorensen 13′#45 | never stuck | 5 GP |
100. Milton Gastrin57% NHL · 3.1y
| Adrian Kempe 14′#29 | 80 pk | 711 GP |
| Vladislav Kamenev 14′#42 | never stuck | 66 GP |
| Joel Eriksson Ek 15′#20 | 68 pk | 614 GP |
| Martin Kaut 18′#16 | never stuck | 56 GP |
| Joe Veleno 18′#30 | 29 pk | 367 GP |
181. Andrew Cristall62% NHL · 1.6y
| Nick Sorensen 13′#45 | never stuck | 5 GP |
| Mitchell Stephens 15′#33 | 18 pk | 123 GP |
| Tyler Benson 16′#32 | never stuck | 38 GP |
| Jonatan Berggren 18′#33 | 36 pk | 205 GP |
| Kole Lind 17′#33 | never stuck | 31 GP |
227. Oliver Suvanto55% NHL · 4.4y
| Zemgus Girgensons 12′#14 | 40 pk | 844 GP |
| Martin Kaut 18′#16 | never stuck | 56 GP |
| Marko Dano 13′#27 | 49 pk | 141 GP |
| Adrian Kempe 14′#29 | 80 pk | 711 GP |
| Joel Eriksson Ek 15′#20 | 68 pk | 614 GP |
228. Cole Hutson62% NHL · 2.6y
| Scott Perunovich 18′#45 | 26 pk | 108 GP |
| Nils Lundkvist 18′#28 | 26 pk | 235 GP |
| Josh Brook 17′#56 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Sean Durzi 18′#52 | 44 pk | 302 GP |
| Jacob Bernard-Docker 18′#26 | 16 pk | 207 GP |
236. Terik Parascak53% NHL · 2.6y
| Kieffer Bellows 16′#19 | 35 pk | 114 GP |
| John Quenneville 14′#30 | never stuck | 42 GP |
| Adam Erne 13′#33 | 36 pk | 424 GP |
| Jason Dickinson 13′#29 | 35 pk | 566 GP |
| Ty Dellandrea 18′#13 | 28 pk | 265 GP |
281. Ivan Miroshnichenko57% NHL · 0.8y
| Morgan Klimchuk 13′#28 | never stuck | 1 GP |
| Jonatan Berggren 18′#33 | 36 pk | 205 GP |
| Kole Lind 17′#33 | never stuck | 31 GP |
| Egor Korshkov 16′#31 | never stuck | 1 GP |
| Mitchell Stephens 15′#33 | 18 pk | 123 GP |
292. Tyus Sparks47% NHL · 3.7y
| Jake Guentzel 13′#77 | 91 pk | 681 GP |
| Jarrod Maidens 12′#82 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Luke Johnson 13′#134 | never stuck | 32 GP |
| Shane Eiserman 14′#100 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Daniel Sprong 15′#46 | 57 pk | 374 GP |
491. Alexander Suzdalev40% NHL · 1.3y
| Garrett Pilon 16′#87 | never stuck | 3 GP |
| Nicolas Aube-Kubel 14′#48 | 34 pk | 310 GP |
| Semyon Der-Arguchintsev 18′#76 | never stuck | 1 GP |
| Jordan Martinook 12′#58 | 37 pk | 797 GP |
| Alexander Volkov 17′#48 | never stuck | 46 GP |
527. Leon Muggli53% NHL · 2.4y
| Martin Fehérváry 18′#46 | 27 pk | 380 GP |
| Alexander Romanov 18′#38 | 26 pk | 369 GP |
| Travis Dermott 15′#34 | 29 pk | 348 GP |
| Guillaume Brisebois 15′#66 | never stuck | 30 GP |
| Adam Pelech 12′#65 | 29 pk | 642 GP |
699. Eriks Mateiko33% NHL · 1.8y
| Matia Marcantuoni 12′#92 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Jesse Gabrielle 15′#105 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Drake Rymsha 17′#138 | never stuck | 1 GP |
| Cliff Pu 16′#69 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Dominic Turgeon 14′#63 | never stuck | 9 GP |