Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.
Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.
#PlayerPosLeagueAgeOrgDraftP/GPNHLeP(NHL)ETAUpside bandScore
96Lynden LakovicFWHL19.7WSH*25′ #271.3232.457%2.4y @22.1
143061
30.1
228Cole HutsonDNCAA20.1WSH24′ #430.9130.762%2.6y @22.7
02552
25.4
236Terik ParascakFWHL20.2WSH24′ #171.331.953%2.6y @22.8
02355
25
292Tyus SparksFWHL18.6WSH*26′ #1010.942347%3.7y @22.3
01956
22.9
783Maxim SchaferFLHJMQ19.3WSH*25′ #960.9221.228%3.7y @23
0046
12.4
1288Jackson CrowderFUSHL19.3WSH*25′ #1551.0220.112%3.8y @23.1
0020
6.6
1636Miroslav SatanFOHL20.5WSH*24′ #2120010%4.4y @24.9
0021
3.9
96. Lynden Lakovic57% NHL · 2.4y
Jonathan Dahlen 16#42never stuck61 GP
Luke Kunin 16#1541 pk496 GP
Emile Poirier 13#22never stuck8 GP
Jayce Hawryluk 14#32never stuck98 GP
Nick Sorensen 13#45never stuck5 GP
228. Cole Hutson62% NHL · 2.6y
Scott Perunovich 18#4526 pk108 GP
Nils Lundkvist 18#2826 pk235 GP
Josh Brook 17#56never stuck0 GP
Sean Durzi 18#5244 pk302 GP
Jacob Bernard-Docker 18#2616 pk207 GP
236. Terik Parascak53% NHL · 2.6y
Kieffer Bellows 16#1935 pk114 GP
John Quenneville 14#30never stuck42 GP
Adam Erne 13#3336 pk424 GP
Jason Dickinson 13#2935 pk566 GP
Ty Dellandrea 18#1328 pk265 GP
292. Tyus Sparks47% NHL · 3.7y
Jake Guentzel 13#7791 pk681 GP
Jarrod Maidens 12#82never stuck0 GP
Luke Johnson 13#134never stuck32 GP
Shane Eiserman 14#100never stuck0 GP
Daniel Sprong 15#4657 pk374 GP
783. Maxim Schafer28% NHL · 3.7y
William Lockwood 16#64never stuck54 GP
Dominic Toninato 12#12620 pk197 GP
John McCarron 12#153never stuck0 GP
Frederik Tiffels 15#167never stuck0 GP
Jonne Tammela 15#118never stuck0 GP
1288. Jackson Crowder12% NHL · 3.8y
John McCarron 12#153never stuck0 GP
Frederik Tiffels 15#167never stuck0 GP
Brian Pinho 13#174never stuck2 GP
Dominic Toninato 12#12620 pk197 GP
Arnaud Durandeau 17#165never stuck4 GP
1636. Miroslav Satan10% NHL · 4.4y
Pavel Koltygin 17#176never stuck0 GP
Erik Walli Walterholm 17#190never stuck0 GP
Karch Bachman 15#132never stuck0 GP
Patrik Virta 17#207never stuck0 GP
Louis Nanne 12#188never stuck0 GP