Prospect Rankings
Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.
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How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.
Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.
| # | Player | Pos | League | Age | Org | Draft | P/GP | NHLe | P(NHL) | ETA | Upside band | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 96 | Lynden Lakovic | F | WHL | 19.7 | WSH* | 25′ #27 | 1.32 | 32.4 | 57% | 2.4y @22.1 | 143061 | 30.1 |
| 228 | Cole Hutson | D | NCAA | 20.1 | WSH | 24′ #43 | 0.91 | 30.7 | 62% | 2.6y @22.7 | 02552 | 25.4 |
| 236 | Terik Parascak | F | WHL | 20.2 | WSH | 24′ #17 | 1.3 | 31.9 | 53% | 2.6y @22.8 | 02355 | 25 |
| 292 | Tyus Sparks | F | WHL | 18.6 | WSH* | 26′ #101 | 0.94 | 23 | 47% | 3.7y @22.3 | 01956 | 22.9 |
| 783 | Maxim Schafer | F | LHJMQ | 19.3 | WSH* | 25′ #96 | 0.92 | 21.2 | 28% | 3.7y @23 | 0046 | 12.4 |
| 1288 | Jackson Crowder | F | USHL | 19.3 | WSH* | 25′ #155 | 1.02 | 20.1 | 12% | 3.8y @23.1 | 0020 | 6.6 |
| 1636 | Miroslav Satan | F | OHL | 20.5 | WSH* | 24′ #212 | 0 | 0 | 10% | 4.4y @24.9 | 0021 | 3.9 |
Who each prospect looks like
96. Lynden Lakovic57% NHL · 2.4y
| Jonathan Dahlen 16′#42 | never stuck | 61 GP |
| Luke Kunin 16′#15 | 41 pk | 496 GP |
| Emile Poirier 13′#22 | never stuck | 8 GP |
| Jayce Hawryluk 14′#32 | never stuck | 98 GP |
| Nick Sorensen 13′#45 | never stuck | 5 GP |
228. Cole Hutson62% NHL · 2.6y
| Scott Perunovich 18′#45 | 26 pk | 108 GP |
| Nils Lundkvist 18′#28 | 26 pk | 235 GP |
| Josh Brook 17′#56 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Sean Durzi 18′#52 | 44 pk | 302 GP |
| Jacob Bernard-Docker 18′#26 | 16 pk | 207 GP |
236. Terik Parascak53% NHL · 2.6y
| Kieffer Bellows 16′#19 | 35 pk | 114 GP |
| John Quenneville 14′#30 | never stuck | 42 GP |
| Adam Erne 13′#33 | 36 pk | 424 GP |
| Jason Dickinson 13′#29 | 35 pk | 566 GP |
| Ty Dellandrea 18′#13 | 28 pk | 265 GP |
292. Tyus Sparks47% NHL · 3.7y
| Jake Guentzel 13′#77 | 91 pk | 681 GP |
| Jarrod Maidens 12′#82 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Luke Johnson 13′#134 | never stuck | 32 GP |
| Shane Eiserman 14′#100 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Daniel Sprong 15′#46 | 57 pk | 374 GP |
783. Maxim Schafer28% NHL · 3.7y
| William Lockwood 16′#64 | never stuck | 54 GP |
| Dominic Toninato 12′#126 | 20 pk | 197 GP |
| John McCarron 12′#153 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Frederik Tiffels 15′#167 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Jonne Tammela 15′#118 | never stuck | 0 GP |
1288. Jackson Crowder12% NHL · 3.8y
| John McCarron 12′#153 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Frederik Tiffels 15′#167 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Brian Pinho 13′#174 | never stuck | 2 GP |
| Dominic Toninato 12′#126 | 20 pk | 197 GP |
| Arnaud Durandeau 17′#165 | never stuck | 4 GP |
1636. Miroslav Satan10% NHL · 4.4y
| Pavel Koltygin 17′#176 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Erik Walli Walterholm 17′#190 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Karch Bachman 15′#132 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Patrik Virta 17′#207 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Louis Nanne 12′#188 | never stuck | 0 GP |