Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
228	Cole Hutson	D	NCAA	20.1	WSH	24′ #43	0.91	30.7	62%	2.6y @22.7	02552	25.4
1742	Brett Hyland	F	NCAAPRO	23.5	WSH*	23′ #200	0.5	16.8	12%	3.3y @26.8	0020	3.4

Who each prospect looks like

228. Cole Hutson62% NHL · 2.6y

Scott Perunovich 18′#45	26 pk	108 GP
Nils Lundkvist 18′#28	26 pk	235 GP
Josh Brook 17′#56	never stuck	0 GP
Sean Durzi 18′#52	44 pk	302 GP
Jacob Bernard-Docker 18′#26	16 pk	207 GP

1742. Brett Hyland12% NHL · 3.3y

Eetu Pakkila 18′#203	never stuck	0 GP
Jonny Brodzinski 13′#148	31 pk	264 GP
Reid Duke 14′#169	never stuck	0 GP
Artur Gavrus 12′#180	never stuck	0 GP
Semyon Kizimov 18′#211	never stuck	0 GP