Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
53	Ilya Protas	F	AHLPRO	20.1	WSH	24′ #75	0.96	34.5	68%	2.7y @22.8	183365	33.3
181	Andrew Cristall	F	AHLPRO	21.5	WSH*	23′ #40	0.83	30.1	62%	1.6y @23.1	63153	27.1
281	Ivan Miroshnichenko	F	AHLPRO	22.5	WSH	22′ #20	0.83	29.9	57%	0.8y @23.3	02743	23.4
491	Alexander Suzdalev	F	AHLPRO	22.5	WSH*	22′ #70	0.59	21.1	40%	1.3y @23.8	01937	17.9
527	Leon Muggli	D	AHLPRO	20.1	WSH*	24′ #52	0.26	9.4	53%	2.4y @22.5	01832	17
699	Eriks Mateiko	F	AHLPRO	20.8	WSH*	24′ #90	0.22	8	33%	1.8y @22.6	0055	13.4
938	Ryan Chesley	D	AHLPRO	22.5	WSH*	22′ #37	0.25	9	30%	0.8y @23.3	0027	10.3
1047	Cam Allen	D	AHLPRO	21.6	WSH*	23′ #136	0.32	11.5	28%	3y @24.6	0024	8.8

Who each prospect looks like

53. Ilya Protas68% NHL · 2.7y

Emil Bemstrom 17′#117	33 pk	242 GP
Jack Drury 18′#42	30 pk	268 GP
Lucas Wallmark 14′#97	31 pk	187 GP
Artturi Lehkonen 13′#55	65 pk	660 GP
Carl Grundstrom 16′#57	27 pk	339 GP

181. Andrew Cristall62% NHL · 1.6y

Nick Sorensen 13′#45	never stuck	5 GP
Mitchell Stephens 15′#33	18 pk	123 GP
Tyler Benson 16′#32	never stuck	38 GP
Jonatan Berggren 18′#33	36 pk	205 GP
Kole Lind 17′#33	never stuck	31 GP

281. Ivan Miroshnichenko57% NHL · 0.8y

Morgan Klimchuk 13′#28	never stuck	1 GP
Jonatan Berggren 18′#33	36 pk	205 GP
Kole Lind 17′#33	never stuck	31 GP
Egor Korshkov 16′#31	never stuck	1 GP
Mitchell Stephens 15′#33	18 pk	123 GP

491. Alexander Suzdalev40% NHL · 1.3y

Garrett Pilon 16′#87	never stuck	3 GP
Nicolas Aube-Kubel 14′#48	34 pk	310 GP
Semyon Der-Arguchintsev 18′#76	never stuck	1 GP
Jordan Martinook 12′#58	37 pk	797 GP
Alexander Volkov 17′#48	never stuck	46 GP

527. Leon Muggli53% NHL · 2.4y

Martin Fehérváry 18′#46	27 pk	380 GP
Alexander Romanov 18′#38	26 pk	369 GP
Travis Dermott 15′#34	29 pk	348 GP
Guillaume Brisebois 15′#66	never stuck	30 GP
Adam Pelech 12′#65	29 pk	642 GP

699. Eriks Mateiko33% NHL · 1.8y

Matia Marcantuoni 12′#92	never stuck	0 GP
Jesse Gabrielle 15′#105	never stuck	0 GP
Drake Rymsha 17′#138	never stuck	1 GP
Cliff Pu 16′#69	never stuck	0 GP
Dominic Turgeon 14′#63	never stuck	9 GP

938. Ryan Chesley30% NHL · 0.8y

Madison Bowey 13′#53	26 pk	158 GP
Lucas Johansen 16′#28	never stuck	9 GP
Adam Ginning 18′#50	never stuck	16 GP
Matthew Finn 12′#35	never stuck	0 GP
Jake Walman 14′#82	52 pk	320 GP

1047. Cam Allen28% NHL · 3y

Brandon Crawley 17′#123	never stuck	0 GP
Anton Cederholm 13′#145	never stuck	0 GP
Blake Siebenaler 14′#77	never stuck	0 GP
Tim Berni 18′#159	never stuck	59 GP
Christian Jaros 15′#139	never stuck	94 GP