Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
46	Ilya Protas	F	AHLPRO	20.1	WSH	24′ #75	0.96	34.5	68%	2.7y @22.8	183365	33.3
86	Lynden Lakovic	F	WHL	19.7	WSH*	25′ #27	1.32	32.4	57%	2.4y @22.1	143061	30.1
90	Milton Gastrin	F	ALLSVENSKANPRO	19.2	WSH*	25′ #37	0.62	19.2	57%	3.1y @22.3	42968	29.8
170	Andrew Cristall	F	AHLPRO	21.5	WSH*	23′ #40	0.83	30.1	62%	1.6y @23.1	63153	27.1
215	Oliver Suvanto	F	LIIGAPRO	18	WSH	26′ #18	0.23	10.1	55%	4.4y @22.4	01964	25.6
223	Terik Parascak	F	WHL	20.2	WSH	24′ #17	1.3	31.9	53%	2.6y @22.8	02355	25
266	Ivan Miroshnichenko	F	AHLPRO	22.5	WSH	22′ #20	0.83	29.9	57%	0.8y @23.3	02743	23.4
276	Tyus Sparks	F	WHL	18.6	WSH*	26′ #101	0.94	23	47%	3.7y @22.3	01956	22.9
415	Alexander Suzdalev	F	AHLPRO	22.5	WSH*	22′ #70	0.59	21.1	40%	1.3y @23.8	01937	17.9
558	Eriks Mateiko	F	AHLPRO	20.8	WSH*	24′ #90	0.22	8	33%	1.8y @22.6	0055	13.4
617	Maxim Schafer	F	LHJMQ	19.3	WSH*	25′ #96	0.92	21.2	28%	3.7y @23	0046	12.4
893	Jackson Crowder	F	USHL	19.3	WSH*	25′ #155	1.02	20.1	12%	3.8y @23.1	0020	6.6
1119	Miroslav Satan	F	OHL	20.5	WSH*	24′ #212	0	0	10%	4.4y @24.9	0021	3.9
1196	Brett Hyland	F	NCAAPRO	23.5	WSH*	23′ #200	0.5	16.8	12%	3.3y @26.8	0020	3.4
1311	Haakon Hanelt	F	DELPRO	23.2	WSH*	21′ #151	0.22	7.5	5%	0.7y @23.9	000	2

Who each prospect looks like

46. Ilya Protas68% NHL · 2.7y

Emil Bemstrom 17′#117	33 pk	242 GP
Jack Drury 18′#42	30 pk	268 GP
Lucas Wallmark 14′#97	31 pk	187 GP
Artturi Lehkonen 13′#55	65 pk	660 GP
Carl Grundstrom 16′#57	27 pk	339 GP

86. Lynden Lakovic57% NHL · 2.4y

Jonathan Dahlen 16′#42	never stuck	61 GP
Luke Kunin 16′#15	41 pk	496 GP
Emile Poirier 13′#22	never stuck	8 GP
Jayce Hawryluk 14′#32	never stuck	98 GP
Nick Sorensen 13′#45	never stuck	5 GP

90. Milton Gastrin57% NHL · 3.1y

Adrian Kempe 14′#29	80 pk	711 GP
Vladislav Kamenev 14′#42	never stuck	66 GP
Joel Eriksson Ek 15′#20	68 pk	614 GP
Martin Kaut 18′#16	never stuck	56 GP
Joe Veleno 18′#30	29 pk	367 GP

170. Andrew Cristall62% NHL · 1.6y

Nick Sorensen 13′#45	never stuck	5 GP
Mitchell Stephens 15′#33	18 pk	123 GP
Tyler Benson 16′#32	never stuck	38 GP
Jonatan Berggren 18′#33	36 pk	205 GP
Kole Lind 17′#33	never stuck	31 GP

215. Oliver Suvanto55% NHL · 4.4y

Zemgus Girgensons 12′#14	40 pk	844 GP
Martin Kaut 18′#16	never stuck	56 GP
Marko Dano 13′#27	49 pk	141 GP
Adrian Kempe 14′#29	80 pk	711 GP
Joel Eriksson Ek 15′#20	68 pk	614 GP

223. Terik Parascak53% NHL · 2.6y

Kieffer Bellows 16′#19	35 pk	114 GP
John Quenneville 14′#30	never stuck	42 GP
Adam Erne 13′#33	36 pk	424 GP
Jason Dickinson 13′#29	35 pk	566 GP
Ty Dellandrea 18′#13	28 pk	265 GP

266. Ivan Miroshnichenko57% NHL · 0.8y

Morgan Klimchuk 13′#28	never stuck	1 GP
Jonatan Berggren 18′#33	36 pk	205 GP
Kole Lind 17′#33	never stuck	31 GP
Egor Korshkov 16′#31	never stuck	1 GP
Mitchell Stephens 15′#33	18 pk	123 GP

276. Tyus Sparks47% NHL · 3.7y

Jake Guentzel 13′#77	91 pk	681 GP
Jarrod Maidens 12′#82	never stuck	0 GP
Luke Johnson 13′#134	never stuck	32 GP
Shane Eiserman 14′#100	never stuck	0 GP
Daniel Sprong 15′#46	57 pk	374 GP

415. Alexander Suzdalev40% NHL · 1.3y

Garrett Pilon 16′#87	never stuck	3 GP
Nicolas Aube-Kubel 14′#48	34 pk	310 GP
Semyon Der-Arguchintsev 18′#76	never stuck	1 GP
Jordan Martinook 12′#58	37 pk	797 GP
Alexander Volkov 17′#48	never stuck	46 GP

558. Eriks Mateiko33% NHL · 1.8y

Matia Marcantuoni 12′#92	never stuck	0 GP
Jesse Gabrielle 15′#105	never stuck	0 GP
Drake Rymsha 17′#138	never stuck	1 GP
Cliff Pu 16′#69	never stuck	0 GP
Dominic Turgeon 14′#63	never stuck	9 GP

617. Maxim Schafer28% NHL · 3.7y

William Lockwood 16′#64	never stuck	54 GP
Dominic Toninato 12′#126	20 pk	197 GP
John McCarron 12′#153	never stuck	0 GP
Frederik Tiffels 15′#167	never stuck	0 GP
Jonne Tammela 15′#118	never stuck	0 GP

893. Jackson Crowder12% NHL · 3.8y

John McCarron 12′#153	never stuck	0 GP
Frederik Tiffels 15′#167	never stuck	0 GP
Brian Pinho 13′#174	never stuck	2 GP
Dominic Toninato 12′#126	20 pk	197 GP
Arnaud Durandeau 17′#165	never stuck	4 GP