Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
204	Rutger McGroarty	F	AHLPRO	22.4	WPG*	22′ #14	1.13	40.9	55%	0.8y @23.2	02864	26.6
289	Viggo Björck	F	SHLPRO	18.4	WPG	—	0.36	17.3	47%	4.2y @22.6	01858	23
304	Zach Nehring	F	NCAAPRO	21.4	WPG*	23′ #82	0.49	16.3	47%	1.4y @22.8	01559	22.6
319	Colby Barlow	F	AHLPRO	21.5	WPG*	23′ #18	0.25	8.9	57%	1.4y @22.9	02046	22.3
424	Alfons Freij	D	SHLPRO	20.5	WPG*	24′ #37	0.26	12.7	55%	2.1y @22.6	01843	19.6
553	Alofa Tunoa Ta'amu	D	WHL	18.2	WPG*	26′ #199	0.19	4.8	40%	4.6y @22.8	01545	16.4
591	Kieron Walton	F	OHL	20.3	WPG*	24′ #187	1.47	36.3	33%	2.7y @23	0053	15.6
599	Brad Lambert	F	AHLPRO	22.7	WPG*	22′ #30	0.38	13.8	40%	0.9y @23.6	01037	15.4
631	Alexandre Taillefer	D	LHJMQ	18.6	WPG*	26′ #135	0.61	13.9	38%	4.3y @22.9	0944	15
744	Markus Loponen	F	LIIGAPRO	20.2	WPG*	24′ #155	0.15	6.6	28%	2.3y @22.5	0055	12.9
748	Garrett Brown	D	NCAAPRO	22.4	WPG*	22′ #99	0.41	13.8	40%	2.4y @24.8	01127	12.8
750	Isak Rosén	F	AHLPRO	23.4	WPG	—	1.16	41.9	17%	1.2y @24.6	0055	12.8
788	Landon Hafele	F	USHL	18.9	WPG*	26′ #167	0.81	15.9	28%	4.6y @23.5	0046	12.3
793	Sascha Boumedienne	D	NCAA	19.6	WPG	25′ #28	0.29	9.6	38%	2.5y @22.1	0027	12.2
796	Elias Salomonsson	D	AHLPRO	22	WPG*	22′ #55	0.31	11.2	40%	1.3y @23.3	0729	12.1
948	Danil Zhilkin	F	AHLPRO	22.7	WPG*	22′ #77	0.39	14	25%	1y @23.7	0031	10.2
955	Owen Martin	F	WHL	19.3	WPG*	25′ #92	0.86	21.2	25%	3.8y @23.1	0044	10.2
1015	Kevin He	F	OHL	20.3	WPG*	24′ #109	1.23	30.2	20%	3.4y @23.7	0034	9.2
1126	Edison Engle	D	OHL	19.5	WPG*	25′ #188	0.46	11.3	23%	4.6y @24.1	0026	7.9
1227	Jacob Julien	F	AHLPRO	21.9	WPG*	23′ #146	0.23	8.1	10%	1y @22.9	0025	6.9
1415	Zach Wooten	F	USHL	20.5	WPG*	26′ #116	1.02	20	10%	3.4y @23.9	0020	5.4
1417	Dmitry Kuzmin	D	AHLPRO	23.3	WPG	21′ #82	0.33	11.8	12%	2.6y @25.9	0017	5.3
1424	Connor Levis	F	NCAAPRO	21.9	WPG*	23′ #210	0.16	5.4	7%	1.9y @23.8	0021	5.3
1428	Jacob Cloutier	F	OHL	19.4	WPG*	25′ #220	0.73	18.1	12%	4.7y @24.1	0020	5.2
1643	Fabian Wagner	F	AHLPRO	22.3	WPG*	22′ #175	0.1	3.7	7%	1.6y @23.9	0012	3.8
2006	Nikita Chibrikov	F	AHLPRO	23.5	WPG	21′ #50	0.3	10.9	3%	0.6y @24.1	000	1

Who each prospect looks like

204. Rutger McGroarty55% NHL · 0.8y

Jonatan Berggren 18′#33	36 pk	205 GP
Tyler Benson 16′#32	never stuck	38 GP
Egor Korshkov 16′#31	never stuck	1 GP
Boris Katchouk 16′#44	23 pk	179 GP
Taylor Raddysh 16′#58	39 pk	373 GP

289. Viggo Björck47% NHL · 4.2y

Taylor Leier 12′#117	never stuck	55 GP
Ondrej Kase 14′#205	55 pk	258 GP
Maksim Sushko 17′#107	never stuck	2 GP
Bogdan Yakimov 13′#83	never stuck	1 GP
Beck Malenstyn 16′#145	21 pk	262 GP

304. Zach Nehring47% NHL · 1.4y

Mikhail Vorobyev 15′#104	never stuck	35 GP
Paul Cotter 18′#115	27 pk	296 GP
Allan McShane 18′#97	never stuck	0 GP
Michael Amadio 14′#90	35 pk	522 GP
Nick Baptiste 13′#69	never stuck	47 GP

319. Colby Barlow57% NHL · 1.4y

Kieffer Bellows 16′#19	35 pk	114 GP
Zach Senyshyn 15′#15	never stuck	16 GP
Brendan Lemieux 14′#31	25 pk	307 GP
Radek Faksa 12′#13	34 pk	766 GP
Brendan Gaunce 12′#26	20 pk	214 GP

424. Alfons Freij55% NHL · 2.1y

Gustav Lindstrom 17′#38	18 pk	174 GP
Robert Hagg 13′#41	22 pk	345 GP
Matthew Finn 12′#35	never stuck	0 GP
Travis Dermott 15′#34	29 pk	348 GP
Cale Fleury 17′#87	11 pk	100 GP

553. Alofa Tunoa Ta'amu40% NHL · 4.6y

Gage Ausmus 13′#151	never stuck	0 GP
Connor Clifton 13′#133	24 pk	434 GP
Joakim Ryan 12′#198	16 pk	145 GP
Keaton Thompson 13′#87	never stuck	0 GP
Michael Downing 13′#97	never stuck	0 GP

591. Kieron Walton33% NHL · 2.7y

Sasha Chmelevski 17′#185	never stuck	24 GP
Francis Perron 14′#190	never stuck	0 GP
Spencer Watson 14′#209	never stuck	0 GP
Tyler Soy 16′#205	never stuck	0 GP
Colin Smith 12′#192	never stuck	1 GP

599. Brad Lambert40% NHL · 0.9y

Jansen Harkins 15′#47	20 pk	305 GP
Akil Thomas 18′#51	never stuck	32 GP
Phillip Di Giuseppe 12′#38	34 pk	302 GP
Yakov Trenin 15′#55	26 pk	457 GP
Pascal Laberge 16′#36	never stuck	0 GP

631. Alexandre Taillefer38% NHL · 4.3y

Mark Friedman 14′#86	never stuck	93 GP
Will Butcher 13′#123	45 pk	275 GP
Matt Grzelcyk 12′#85	44 pk	596 GP
Brian Cooper 12′#127	never stuck	0 GP
Joakim Ryan 12′#198	16 pk	145 GP

744. Markus Loponen28% NHL · 2.3y

Beck Malenstyn 16′#145	21 pk	262 GP
Maksim Sushko 17′#107	never stuck	2 GP
Matia Marcantuoni 12′#92	never stuck	0 GP
Taylor Leier 12′#117	never stuck	55 GP
Nick Caamano 16′#146	never stuck	36 GP

748. Garrett Brown40% NHL · 2.4y

Tarmo Reunanen 16′#98	never stuck	4 GP
Frederic Allard 16′#78	never stuck	4 GP
Lucas Carlsson 16′#110	never stuck	73 GP
Jakub Galvas 17′#150	never stuck	6 GP
William Lagesson 14′#91	11 pk	107 GP

750. Isak Rosén17% NHL · 1.2y

Victor Olofsson 14′#181	64 pk	448 GP
Nikita Gusev 12′#202	never stuck	97 GP
Maxim Mamin 16′#175	never stuck	73 GP
Dominik Lakatos 17′#157	never stuck	0 GP
Miro Aaltonen 13′#177	never stuck	0 GP