Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
553	Alofa Tunoa Ta'amu	D	WHL	18.2	WPG*	26′ #199	0.19	4.8	40%	4.6y @22.8	01545	16.4
591	Kieron Walton	F	OHL	20.3	WPG*	24′ #187	1.47	36.3	33%	2.7y @23	0053	15.6
631	Alexandre Taillefer	D	LHJMQ	18.6	WPG*	26′ #135	0.61	13.9	38%	4.3y @22.9	0944	15
788	Landon Hafele	F	USHL	18.9	WPG*	26′ #167	0.81	15.9	28%	4.6y @23.5	0046	12.3
793	Sascha Boumedienne	D	NCAA	19.6	WPG	25′ #28	0.29	9.6	38%	2.5y @22.1	0027	12.2
955	Owen Martin	F	WHL	19.3	WPG*	25′ #92	0.86	21.2	25%	3.8y @23.1	0044	10.2
1015	Kevin He	F	OHL	20.3	WPG*	24′ #109	1.23	30.2	20%	3.4y @23.7	0034	9.2
1126	Edison Engle	D	OHL	19.5	WPG*	25′ #188	0.46	11.3	23%	4.6y @24.1	0026	7.9
1415	Zach Wooten	F	USHL	20.5	WPG*	26′ #116	1.02	20	10%	3.4y @23.9	0020	5.4
1428	Jacob Cloutier	F	OHL	19.4	WPG*	25′ #220	0.73	18.1	12%	4.7y @24.1	0020	5.2

Who each prospect looks like

553. Alofa Tunoa Ta'amu40% NHL · 4.6y

Gage Ausmus 13′#151	never stuck	0 GP
Connor Clifton 13′#133	24 pk	434 GP
Joakim Ryan 12′#198	16 pk	145 GP
Keaton Thompson 13′#87	never stuck	0 GP
Michael Downing 13′#97	never stuck	0 GP

591. Kieron Walton33% NHL · 2.7y

Sasha Chmelevski 17′#185	never stuck	24 GP
Francis Perron 14′#190	never stuck	0 GP
Spencer Watson 14′#209	never stuck	0 GP
Tyler Soy 16′#205	never stuck	0 GP
Colin Smith 12′#192	never stuck	1 GP

631. Alexandre Taillefer38% NHL · 4.3y

Mark Friedman 14′#86	never stuck	93 GP
Will Butcher 13′#123	45 pk	275 GP
Matt Grzelcyk 12′#85	44 pk	596 GP
Brian Cooper 12′#127	never stuck	0 GP
Joakim Ryan 12′#198	16 pk	145 GP

788. Landon Hafele28% NHL · 4.6y

Luke Johnson 13′#134	never stuck	32 GP
Jonne Tammela 15′#118	never stuck	0 GP
Matthew Deblouw 12′#186	never stuck	0 GP
Shane Eiserman 14′#100	never stuck	0 GP
Jesper Bratt 16′#162	89 pk	634 GP

793. Sascha Boumedienne38% NHL · 2.5y

Ryan Lindgren 16′#49	29 pk	481 GP
Alexander Romanov 18′#38	26 pk	369 GP
Roland McKeown 14′#50	never stuck	16 GP
Patrick Sieloff 12′#42	never stuck	2 GP
Dalton Thrower 12′#51	never stuck	0 GP

955. Owen Martin25% NHL · 3.8y

William Lockwood 16′#64	never stuck	54 GP
Dominic Toninato 12′#126	20 pk	197 GP
John McCarron 12′#153	never stuck	0 GP
Brian Pinho 13′#174	never stuck	2 GP
Jonne Tammela 15′#118	never stuck	0 GP

1015. Kevin He20% NHL · 3.4y

Jonathan Gruden 18′#95	never stuck	16 GP
Rudolfs Balcers 15′#142	34 pk	170 GP
Kyle Platzer 13′#96	never stuck	0 GP
Deven Sideroff 15′#84	never stuck	0 GP
Tyler Vesel 14′#153	never stuck	0 GP

1126. Edison Engle23% NHL · 4.6y

Giovanni Vallati 18′#153	never stuck	0 GP
Dennis Busby 18′#145	never stuck	0 GP
Dmitriy Zaitsev 16′#207	never stuck	0 GP
Dawson Barteaux 18′#168	never stuck	0 GP
Vojtech Budik 16′#130	never stuck	0 GP

1415. Zach Wooten10% NHL · 3.4y

Connor Bunnaman 16′#109	never stuck	54 GP
Damien Riat 16′#117	never stuck	0 GP
Austin Poganski 14′#110	never stuck	22 GP
Michael Pezzetta 16′#160	20 pk	209 GP
Richard Nejezchleb 14′#122	never stuck	0 GP

1428. Jacob Cloutier12% NHL · 4.7y

Cristiano Digiacinto 14′#170	never stuck	0 GP
Brian Pinho 13′#174	never stuck	2 GP
Otto Somppi 16′#206	never stuck	0 GP
Ryan McGregor 17′#172	never stuck	0 GP
Liam Kirk 18′#189	never stuck	0 GP