Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.
Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.
#PlayerPosLeagueAgeOrgDraftP/GPNHLeP(NHL)ETAUpside bandScore
204Rutger McGroartyFAHLPRO22.4WPG*22′ #141.1340.955%0.8y @23.2
02864
26.6
319Colby BarlowFAHLPRO21.5WPG*23′ #180.258.957%1.4y @22.9
02046
22.3
599Brad LambertFAHLPRO22.7WPG*22′ #300.3813.840%0.9y @23.6
01037
15.4
750Isak RosénFAHLPRO23.4WPG1.1641.917%1.2y @24.6
0055
12.8
796Elias SalomonssonDAHLPRO22WPG22′ #550.3111.240%1.3y @23.3
0729
12.1
948Danil ZhilkinFAHLPRO22.7WPG*22′ #770.391425%1y @23.7
0031
10.2
1227Jacob JulienFAHLPRO21.9WPG*23′ #1460.238.110%1y @22.9
0025
6.9
1417Dmitry KuzminDAHLPRO23.3WPG*21′ #820.3311.812%2.6y @25.9
0017
5.3
1643Fabian WagnerFAHLPRO22.3WPG*22′ #1750.13.77%1.6y @23.9
0012
3.8
2006Nikita ChibrikovFAHLPRO23.5WPG21′ #500.310.93%0.6y @24.1
000
1
204. Rutger McGroarty55% NHL · 0.8y
Jonatan Berggren 18#3336 pk205 GP
Tyler Benson 16#32never stuck38 GP
Egor Korshkov 16#31never stuck1 GP
Boris Katchouk 16#4423 pk179 GP
Taylor Raddysh 16#5839 pk373 GP
319. Colby Barlow57% NHL · 1.4y
Kieffer Bellows 16#1935 pk114 GP
Zach Senyshyn 15#15never stuck16 GP
Brendan Lemieux 14#3125 pk307 GP
Radek Faksa 12#1334 pk766 GP
Brendan Gaunce 12#2620 pk214 GP
599. Brad Lambert40% NHL · 0.9y
Jansen Harkins 15#4720 pk305 GP
Akil Thomas 18#51never stuck32 GP
Phillip Di Giuseppe 12#3834 pk302 GP
Yakov Trenin 15#5526 pk457 GP
Pascal Laberge 16#36never stuck0 GP
750. Isak Rosén17% NHL · 1.2y
Victor Olofsson 14#18164 pk448 GP
Nikita Gusev 12#202never stuck97 GP
Maxim Mamin 16#175never stuck73 GP
Dominik Lakatos 17#157never stuck0 GP
Miro Aaltonen 13#177never stuck0 GP
796. Elias Salomonsson40% NHL · 1.3y
Josh Brook 17#56never stuck0 GP
Madison Bowey 13#5326 pk158 GP
Josh Jacobs 14#41never stuck3 GP
Roland McKeown 14#50never stuck16 GP
Frederic Allard 16#78never stuck4 GP
948. Danil Zhilkin25% NHL · 1y
J.C. Beaudin 15#71never stuck22 GP
Anton Karlsson 14#87never stuck0 GP
Ryan Kujawinski 13#73never stuck0 GP
Brad Morrison 15#113never stuck0 GP
Jimmy Lodge 13#84never stuck0 GP
1227. Jacob Julien10% NHL · 1y
Nathan Noel 16#113never stuck0 GP
Damien Giroux 18#155never stuck1 GP
Conner Bleackley 16#144never stuck0 GP
Gabriel Fontaine 16#171never stuck0 GP
Ivan Chekhovich 17#212never stuck4 GP
1417. Dmitry Kuzmin12% NHL · 2.6y
Ty Emberson 18#7327 pk178 GP
Cam Dineen 16#68never stuck38 GP
Connor Clifton 13#13324 pk434 GP
Niklas Tikkinen 12#148never stuck0 GP
Kasper Kotkansalo 17#71never stuck0 GP
1643. Fabian Wagner7% NHL · 1.6y
Nathan Noel 16#113never stuck0 GP
Damien Giroux 18#155never stuck1 GP
Conner Bleackley 16#144never stuck0 GP
Ty Ronning 16#201never stuck0 GP
Blade Jenkins 18#134never stuck0 GP
2006. Nikita Chibrikov3% NHL · 0.6y
Troy Bourke 12#72never stuck0 GP
Marcus Davidsson 17#37never stuck0 GP
William Bitten 16#70never stuck4 GP
Brian Hart 12#53never stuck0 GP
Ryan Gropp 15#41never stuck0 GP