Prospect Rankings
Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.
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How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.
Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.
| # | Player | Pos | League | Age | Org | Draft | P/GP | NHLe | P(NHL) | ETA | Upside band | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 192 | Rutger McGroarty | F | AHLPRO | 22.4 | WPG* | 22′ #14 | 1.13 | 40.9 | 55% | 0.8y @23.2 | 02864 | 26.6 |
| 273 | Viggo Björck | F | SHLPRO | 18.4 | WPG | — | 0.36 | 17.3 | 47% | 4.2y @22.6 | 01858 | 23 |
| 280 | Zach Nehring | F | NCAAPRO | 21.5 | WPG* | 23′ #82 | 0.49 | 16.3 | 47% | 1.3y @22.8 | 01559 | 22.6 |
| 286 | Colby Barlow | F | AHLPRO | 21.5 | WPG* | 23′ #18 | 0.25 | 8.9 | 57% | 1.4y @22.9 | 02046 | 22.3 |
| 485 | Kieron Walton | F | OHL | 20.3 | WPG* | 24′ #187 | 1.47 | 36.3 | 33% | 2.7y @23 | 0053 | 15.6 |
| 493 | Brad Lambert | F | AHLPRO | 22.7 | WPG* | 22′ #30 | 0.38 | 13.8 | 40% | 0.9y @23.6 | 01037 | 15.4 |
| 591 | Markus Loponen | F | LIIGAPRO | 20.2 | WPG* | 24′ #155 | 0.15 | 6.6 | 28% | 2.3y @22.5 | 0055 | 12.9 |
| 595 | Isak Rosén | F | AHLPRO | 23.4 | WPG | — | 1.16 | 41.9 | 17% | 1.2y @24.6 | 0055 | 12.8 |
| 619 | Landon Hafele | F | USHL | 18.9 | WPG* | 26′ #167 | 0.81 | 15.9 | 28% | 4.6y @23.5 | 0046 | 12.3 |
| 698 | Danil Zhilkin | F | AHLPRO | 22.7 | WPG* | 22′ #77 | 0.39 | 14 | 25% | 1y @23.7 | 0031 | 10.2 |
| 703 | Owen Martin | F | WHL | 19.3 | WPG* | 25′ #92 | 0.86 | 21.2 | 25% | 3.8y @23.1 | 0044 | 10.2 |
| 729 | Kevin He | F | OHL | 20.3 | WPG* | 24′ #109 | 1.23 | 30.2 | 20% | 3.4y @23.7 | 0034 | 9.2 |
| 850 | Jacob Julien | F | AHLPRO | 21.9 | WPG* | 23′ #146 | 0.23 | 8.1 | 10% | 1y @22.9 | 0025 | 6.9 |
| 968 | Zach Wooten | F | USHL | 20.5 | WPG* | 26′ #116 | 1.02 | 20 | 10% | 3.4y @23.9 | 0020 | 5.4 |
| 973 | Connor Levis | F | NCAAPRO | 21.9 | WPG* | 23′ #210 | 0.16 | 5.4 | 7% | 1.9y @23.8 | 0021 | 5.3 |
| 975 | Jacob Cloutier | F | OHL | 19.4 | WPG* | 25′ #220 | 0.73 | 18.1 | 12% | 4.7y @24.1 | 0020 | 5.2 |
| 1125 | Fabian Wagner | F | AHLPRO | 22.3 | WPG* | 22′ #175 | 0.1 | 3.7 | 7% | 1.6y @23.9 | 0012 | 3.8 |
| 1384 | Nikita Chibrikov | F | AHLPRO | 23.5 | WPG | 21′ #50 | 0.3 | 10.9 | 3% | 0.6y @24.1 | 000 | 1 |
Who each prospect looks like
192. Rutger McGroarty55% NHL · 0.8y
| Jonatan Berggren 18′#33 | 36 pk | 205 GP |
| Tyler Benson 16′#32 | never stuck | 38 GP |
| Egor Korshkov 16′#31 | never stuck | 1 GP |
| Boris Katchouk 16′#44 | 23 pk | 179 GP |
| Taylor Raddysh 16′#58 | 39 pk | 373 GP |
273. Viggo Björck47% NHL · 4.2y
| Taylor Leier 12′#117 | never stuck | 55 GP |
| Ondrej Kase 14′#205 | 55 pk | 258 GP |
| Maksim Sushko 17′#107 | never stuck | 2 GP |
| Bogdan Yakimov 13′#83 | never stuck | 1 GP |
| Beck Malenstyn 16′#145 | 21 pk | 262 GP |
280. Zach Nehring47% NHL · 1.3y
| Mikhail Vorobyev 15′#104 | never stuck | 35 GP |
| Paul Cotter 18′#115 | 27 pk | 296 GP |
| Allan McShane 18′#97 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Michael Amadio 14′#90 | 35 pk | 522 GP |
| Nick Baptiste 13′#69 | never stuck | 47 GP |
286. Colby Barlow57% NHL · 1.4y
| Kieffer Bellows 16′#19 | 35 pk | 114 GP |
| Zach Senyshyn 15′#15 | never stuck | 16 GP |
| Brendan Lemieux 14′#31 | 25 pk | 307 GP |
| Radek Faksa 12′#13 | 34 pk | 766 GP |
| Brendan Gaunce 12′#26 | 20 pk | 214 GP |
485. Kieron Walton33% NHL · 2.7y
| Sasha Chmelevski 17′#185 | never stuck | 24 GP |
| Francis Perron 14′#190 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Spencer Watson 14′#209 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Tyler Soy 16′#205 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Colin Smith 12′#192 | never stuck | 1 GP |
493. Brad Lambert40% NHL · 0.9y
| Jansen Harkins 15′#47 | 20 pk | 305 GP |
| Akil Thomas 18′#51 | never stuck | 32 GP |
| Phillip Di Giuseppe 12′#38 | 34 pk | 302 GP |
| Yakov Trenin 15′#55 | 26 pk | 457 GP |
| Pascal Laberge 16′#36 | never stuck | 0 GP |
591. Markus Loponen28% NHL · 2.3y
| Beck Malenstyn 16′#145 | 21 pk | 262 GP |
| Maksim Sushko 17′#107 | never stuck | 2 GP |
| Matia Marcantuoni 12′#92 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Taylor Leier 12′#117 | never stuck | 55 GP |
| Nick Caamano 16′#146 | never stuck | 36 GP |
595. Isak Rosén17% NHL · 1.2y
| Victor Olofsson 14′#181 | 64 pk | 448 GP |
| Nikita Gusev 12′#202 | never stuck | 97 GP |
| Maxim Mamin 16′#175 | never stuck | 73 GP |
| Dominik Lakatos 17′#157 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Miro Aaltonen 13′#177 | never stuck | 0 GP |
619. Landon Hafele28% NHL · 4.6y
| Luke Johnson 13′#134 | never stuck | 32 GP |
| Jonne Tammela 15′#118 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Matthew Deblouw 12′#186 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Shane Eiserman 14′#100 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Jesper Bratt 16′#162 | 89 pk | 634 GP |
698. Danil Zhilkin25% NHL · 1y
| J.C. Beaudin 15′#71 | never stuck | 22 GP |
| Anton Karlsson 14′#87 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Ryan Kujawinski 13′#73 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Brad Morrison 15′#113 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Jimmy Lodge 13′#84 | never stuck | 0 GP |
703. Owen Martin25% NHL · 3.8y
| William Lockwood 16′#64 | never stuck | 54 GP |
| Dominic Toninato 12′#126 | 20 pk | 197 GP |
| John McCarron 12′#153 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Brian Pinho 13′#174 | never stuck | 2 GP |
| Jonne Tammela 15′#118 | never stuck | 0 GP |
729. Kevin He20% NHL · 3.4y
| Jonathan Gruden 18′#95 | never stuck | 16 GP |
| Rudolfs Balcers 15′#142 | 34 pk | 170 GP |
| Kyle Platzer 13′#96 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Deven Sideroff 15′#84 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Tyler Vesel 14′#153 | never stuck | 0 GP |