Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
43	Trevor Connelly	F	AHLPRO	20.5	VGK	24′ #19	1.07	38.4	70%	2.1y @22.6	183369	34.1
110	Jonah Sivertson	F	WHL	18	VGK*	26′ #113	0.8	19.8	55%	3.9y @21.9	02958	29
163	Jakob Ihs Wozniak	F	ALLSVENSKANPRO	19.5	VGK*	25′ #55	0.64	19.9	55%	3y @22.5	02961	27.6
241	David Edstrom	F	AHLPRO	21.5	VGK*	23′ #32	0.42	15	57%	1.4y @22.9	02555	24.8
358	Juho Piiparinen	D	LIIGAPRO	18	VGK	26′ #29	0.1	4.6	60%	4.6y @22.6	112243	21.3
421	Ben Hemmerling	F	AHLPRO	22.3	VGK*	22′ #177	0.74	26.5	35%	1.1y @23.4	01951	19.7
431	Braeden Bowman	F	AHLPRO	23.1	VGK	—	1.3	46.9	28%	1.4y @24.5	0056	19.3
436	Mateo Nobert	F	LHJMQ	19	VGK*	25′ #85	1.26	28.9	40%	3.8y @22.8	0051	19.3
585	Matyas Sapovaliv	F	AHLPRO	22.5	VGK*	22′ #48	0.49	17.5	38%	1.2y @23.7	01237	15.7
639	Tuomas Uronen	F	AHLPRO	21.4	VGK*	23′ #192	0.35	12.7	25%	1.4y @22.8	0055	14.7
662	Will McLaughlin	D	WHL	18.4	VGK*	26′ #159	0.44	10.9	35%	4.5y @22.9	0844	14.3
706	Jakub Brabenec	F	AHLPRO	22.9	VGK*	21′ #102	0.5	18	28%	1.2y @24.1	0033	13.3
716	Benjamin Wilmott	F	OHL	20	VGK*	26′ #92	1	24.6	30%	3.2y @23.2	0041	13.3
917	Sean Burick	F	WHL	18.6	VGK*	26′ #95	0.08	2	25%	4.5y @23.1	0036	10.6
941	Mathieu Cataford	F	AHLPRO	21.5	VGK*	23′ #77	0.22	7.9	28%	1.5y @23	0028	10.3
1159	Kai Uchacz	F	AHLPRO	23.1	VGK	—	0.75	27.1	12%	1.6y @24.7	0036	7.5
1273	Gustav Sjoqvist	D	ALLSVENSKANPRO	20.5	VGK*	25′ #187	0.09	2.7	23%	2.2y @22.7	0022	6.6
1339	Lucas Van Vliet	F	NCAA	20.6	VGK*	24′ #197	0.95	31.8	12%	3.1y @23.7	0034	6.2
1642	Alexander Weiermair	F	WHL	21.3	VGK*	25′ #186	1.41	34.7	7%	1.7y @23	0012	3.9
1822	Daniil Chayka	D	VHLPRO	23.8	VGK*	21′ #38	0.12	3	7%	1y @24.8	0011	2.8
1917	Jackson Hallum	F	AHLPRO	23.9	VGK*	20′ #91	0.38	13.6	5%	1.9y @25.8	000	1.9

Who each prospect looks like

43. Trevor Connelly70% NHL · 2.1y

Jack Drury 18′#42	30 pk	268 GP
Jesper Boqvist 17′#36	34 pk	387 GP
Tyler Benson 16′#32	never stuck	38 GP
Jakub Vrana 14′#13	62 pk	406 GP
Tanner Pearson 12′#30	53 pk	778 GP

110. Jonah Sivertson55% NHL · 3.9y

Jarrod Maidens 12′#82	never stuck	0 GP
Alex Formenton 17′#47	33 pk	109 GP
Ivan Morozov 18′#61	never stuck	0 GP
Thomas Di Pauli 12′#100	never stuck	2 GP
Riley Barber 12′#167	never stuck	16 GP

163. Jakob Ihs Wozniak55% NHL · 3y

Vladislav Kamenev 14′#42	never stuck	66 GP
Adrian Kempe 14′#29	80 pk	711 GP
Tyler Bertuzzi 13′#58	75 pk	567 GP
Bo Groulx 18′#54	never stuck	78 GP
Brock McGinn 12′#47	31 pk	534 GP

241. David Edstrom57% NHL · 1.4y

Phillip Di Giuseppe 12′#38	34 pk	302 GP
Brendan Gaunce 12′#26	20 pk	214 GP
Adam Erne 13′#33	36 pk	424 GP
Vaclav Karabacek 14′#49	never stuck	0 GP
Valentin Zykov 13′#37	never stuck	55 GP

358. Juho Piiparinen60% NHL · 4.6y

Martin Fehérváry 18′#46	27 pk	380 GP
Gabriel Carlsson 15′#29	never stuck	81 GP
Urho Vaakanainen 17′#18	27 pk	221 GP
Jacob Cederholm 16′#97	never stuck	0 GP
Timothy Liljegren 17′#17	34 pk	311 GP

421. Ben Hemmerling35% NHL · 1.1y

Jonathan Davidsson 17′#170	never stuck	6 GP
Rourke Chartier 14′#149	never stuck	56 GP
Andreas Johnsson 13′#202	48 pk	259 GP
Connor Brown 12′#156	51 pk	676 GP
Riley Barber 12′#167	never stuck	16 GP

431. Braeden Bowman28% NHL · 1.4y

Victor Olofsson 14′#181	64 pk	448 GP
Pontus Holmberg 18′#156	29 pk	229 GP
Miro Aaltonen 13′#177	never stuck	0 GP
Dominik Kubalik 13′#191	56 pk	357 GP
Maxim Mamin 16′#175	never stuck	73 GP

436. Mateo Nobert40% NHL · 3.8y

Jake Guentzel 13′#77	91 pk	681 GP
Jaret Anderson-Dolan 17′#41	27 pk	134 GP
William Lockwood 16′#64	never stuck	54 GP
Mason Shaw 17′#97	never stuck	82 GP
Janne Kuokkanen 16′#43	41 pk	119 GP

585. Matyas Sapovaliv38% NHL · 1.2y

Jansen Harkins 15′#47	20 pk	305 GP
Jordan Martinook 12′#58	37 pk	797 GP
Yakov Trenin 15′#55	26 pk	457 GP
Pontus Aberg 12′#37	42 pk	132 GP
Keegan Kolesar 15′#69	30 pk	439 GP

639. Tuomas Uronen25% NHL · 1.4y

Cole Ully 13′#131	never stuck	0 GP
Ben Jones 17′#189	never stuck	56 GP
Anton Blidh 13′#180	never stuck	89 GP
Viktor Crus Rydberg 13′#136	never stuck	0 GP
Roy Radke 15′#164	never stuck	0 GP

662. Will McLaughlin35% NHL · 4.5y

Connor Clifton 13′#133	24 pk	434 GP
Gage Ausmus 13′#151	never stuck	0 GP
Will Butcher 13′#123	45 pk	275 GP
Michael Brodzinski 13′#141	never stuck	0 GP
Brian Cooper 12′#127	never stuck	0 GP

706. Jakub Brabenec28% NHL · 1.2y

Jonathan Ang 16′#94	never stuck	0 GP
Michael Spacek 15′#108	never stuck	0 GP
Austin Poganski 14′#110	never stuck	22 GP
David Kase 15′#128	never stuck	7 GP
Brad Morrison 15′#113	never stuck	0 GP