Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
110	Jonah Sivertson	F	WHL	18	VGK*	26′ #113	0.8	19.8	55%	3.9y @21.9	02958	29
662	Will McLaughlin	D	WHL	18.4	VGK*	26′ #159	0.44	10.9	35%	4.5y @22.9	0844	14.3
917	Sean Burick	F	WHL	18.6	VGK*	26′ #95	0.08	2	25%	4.5y @23.1	0036	10.6
1642	Alexander Weiermair	F	WHL	21.3	VGK*	25′ #186	1.41	34.7	7%	1.7y @23	0012	3.9

Who each prospect looks like

110. Jonah Sivertson55% NHL · 3.9y

Jarrod Maidens 12′#82	never stuck	0 GP
Alex Formenton 17′#47	33 pk	109 GP
Ivan Morozov 18′#61	never stuck	0 GP
Thomas Di Pauli 12′#100	never stuck	2 GP
Riley Barber 12′#167	never stuck	16 GP

662. Will McLaughlin35% NHL · 4.5y

Connor Clifton 13′#133	24 pk	434 GP
Gage Ausmus 13′#151	never stuck	0 GP
Will Butcher 13′#123	45 pk	275 GP
Michael Brodzinski 13′#141	never stuck	0 GP
Brian Cooper 12′#127	never stuck	0 GP

917. Sean Burick25% NHL · 4.5y

Tyler Moy 15′#175	never stuck	0 GP
Connor Hurley 13′#38	never stuck	0 GP
Matthew Deblouw 12′#186	never stuck	0 GP
Filip Helt 16′#211	never stuck	0 GP
Hudson Fasching 13′#118	32 pk	175 GP

1642. Alexander Weiermair7% NHL · 1.7y

Tyler Soy 16′#205	never stuck	0 GP
Giorgio Estephan 15′#152	never stuck	0 GP
Noah Cates 17′#137	47 pk	317 GP
Nikita Korostelev 15′#185	never stuck	0 GP
Evan Barratt 17′#90	never stuck	0 GP