Prospect Rankings
Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.
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How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.
Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.
| # | Player | Pos | League | Age | Org | Draft | P/GP | NHLe | P(NHL) | ETA | Upside band | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 436 | Mateo Nobert | F | LHJMQ | 19 | VGK* | 25′ #85 | 1.26 | 28.9 | 40% | 3.8y @22.8 | 0051 | 19.3 |
Who each prospect looks like
436. Mateo Nobert40% NHL · 3.8y
| Jake Guentzel 13′#77 | 91 pk | 681 GP |
| Jaret Anderson-Dolan 17′#41 | 27 pk | 134 GP |
| William Lockwood 16′#64 | never stuck | 54 GP |
| Mason Shaw 17′#97 | never stuck | 82 GP |
| Janne Kuokkanen 16′#43 | 41 pk | 119 GP |