Prospect Rankings
Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.
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How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.
Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.
| # | Player | Pos | League | Age | Org | Draft | P/GP | NHLe | P(NHL) | ETA | Upside band | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | Trevor Connelly | F | AHLPRO | 20.5 | VGK | 24′ #19 | 1.07 | 38.4 | 70% | 2.1y @22.6 | 183369 | 34.1 |
| 241 | David Edstrom | F | AHLPRO | 21.5 | VGK* | 23′ #32 | 0.42 | 15 | 57% | 1.4y @22.9 | 02555 | 24.8 |
| 421 | Ben Hemmerling | F | AHLPRO | 22.3 | VGK* | 22′ #177 | 0.74 | 26.5 | 35% | 1.1y @23.4 | 01951 | 19.7 |
| 431 | Braeden Bowman | F | AHLPRO | 23.2 | VGK | — | 1.3 | 46.9 | 28% | 1.3y @24.5 | 0056 | 19.3 |
| 585 | Matyas Sapovaliv | F | AHLPRO | 22.5 | VGK* | 22′ #48 | 0.49 | 17.5 | 38% | 1.2y @23.7 | 01237 | 15.7 |
| 639 | Tuomas Uronen | F | AHLPRO | 21.4 | VGK* | 23′ #192 | 0.35 | 12.7 | 25% | 1.4y @22.8 | 0055 | 14.7 |
| 706 | Jakub Brabenec | F | AHLPRO | 22.9 | VGK* | 21′ #102 | 0.5 | 18 | 28% | 1.2y @24.1 | 0033 | 13.3 |
| 941 | Mathieu Cataford | F | AHLPRO | 21.5 | VGK* | 23′ #77 | 0.22 | 7.9 | 28% | 1.5y @23 | 0028 | 10.3 |
| 1159 | Kai Uchacz | F | AHLPRO | 23.2 | VGK | — | 0.75 | 27.1 | 12% | 1.5y @24.7 | 0036 | 7.5 |
| 1917 | Jackson Hallum | F | AHLPRO | 23.9 | VGK* | 20′ #91 | 0.38 | 13.6 | 5% | 1.9y @25.8 | 000 | 1.9 |
Who each prospect looks like
43. Trevor Connelly70% NHL · 2.1y
| Jack Drury 18′#42 | 30 pk | 268 GP |
| Jesper Boqvist 17′#36 | 34 pk | 387 GP |
| Tyler Benson 16′#32 | never stuck | 38 GP |
| Jakub Vrana 14′#13 | 62 pk | 406 GP |
| Tanner Pearson 12′#30 | 53 pk | 778 GP |
241. David Edstrom57% NHL · 1.4y
| Phillip Di Giuseppe 12′#38 | 34 pk | 302 GP |
| Brendan Gaunce 12′#26 | 20 pk | 214 GP |
| Adam Erne 13′#33 | 36 pk | 424 GP |
| Vaclav Karabacek 14′#49 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Valentin Zykov 13′#37 | never stuck | 55 GP |
421. Ben Hemmerling35% NHL · 1.1y
| Jonathan Davidsson 17′#170 | never stuck | 6 GP |
| Rourke Chartier 14′#149 | never stuck | 56 GP |
| Andreas Johnsson 13′#202 | 48 pk | 259 GP |
| Connor Brown 12′#156 | 51 pk | 676 GP |
| Riley Barber 12′#167 | never stuck | 16 GP |
431. Braeden Bowman28% NHL · 1.3y
| Victor Olofsson 14′#181 | 64 pk | 448 GP |
| Pontus Holmberg 18′#156 | 29 pk | 229 GP |
| Miro Aaltonen 13′#177 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Dominik Kubalik 13′#191 | 56 pk | 357 GP |
| Maxim Mamin 16′#175 | never stuck | 73 GP |
585. Matyas Sapovaliv38% NHL · 1.2y
| Jansen Harkins 15′#47 | 20 pk | 305 GP |
| Jordan Martinook 12′#58 | 37 pk | 797 GP |
| Yakov Trenin 15′#55 | 26 pk | 457 GP |
| Pontus Aberg 12′#37 | 42 pk | 132 GP |
| Keegan Kolesar 15′#69 | 30 pk | 439 GP |
639. Tuomas Uronen25% NHL · 1.4y
| Cole Ully 13′#131 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Ben Jones 17′#189 | never stuck | 56 GP |
| Anton Blidh 13′#180 | never stuck | 89 GP |
| Viktor Crus Rydberg 13′#136 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Roy Radke 15′#164 | never stuck | 0 GP |
706. Jakub Brabenec28% NHL · 1.2y
| Jonathan Ang 16′#94 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Michael Spacek 15′#108 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Austin Poganski 14′#110 | never stuck | 22 GP |
| David Kase 15′#128 | never stuck | 7 GP |
| Brad Morrison 15′#113 | never stuck | 0 GP |
941. Mathieu Cataford28% NHL · 1.5y
| Alex Schoenborn 14′#72 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Jesse Gabrielle 15′#105 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Cliff Pu 16′#69 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Drake Rymsha 17′#138 | never stuck | 1 GP |
| JC Lipon 13′#91 | never stuck | 9 GP |
1159. Kai Uchacz12% NHL · 1.5y
| Jake Evans 14′#207 | 36 pk | 418 GP |
| Otto Somppi 16′#206 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Andreas Johnsson 13′#202 | 48 pk | 259 GP |
| Jonathan Davidsson 17′#170 | never stuck | 6 GP |
| Mason Appleton 15′#168 | 37 pk | 465 GP |
1917. Jackson Hallum5% NHL · 1.9y
| William Bitten 16′#70 | never stuck | 4 GP |
| Erik Karlsson 12′#99 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Lukas Vejdemo 15′#87 | never stuck | 13 GP |
| Luke Johnson 13′#134 | never stuck | 32 GP |
| Stelio Mattheos 17′#73 | never stuck | 0 GP |