Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
2	Caleb Malhotra★	F	OHL	18.2	VAN*	26′ #3	1.25	30.8	97%	1.5y @19.7	4562105	65.6
11	Adam Novotny★	F	OHL	18.8	VAN	26′ #24	1.12	27.6	88%	2.4y @21.2	314687	48.3
15	Braeden Cootes★	F	WHL	19.5	VAN*	25′ #15	1.39	34.1	70%	1.5y @21	294285	45.8
27	Brooks Rogowski★	F	OHL	18.2	VAN*	26′ #33	0.91	22.5	72%	3.6y @21.8	193583	38
127	Jonathan Lekkerimäki	F	AHLPRO	22.1	VAN	22′ #15	0.95	34.4	65%	1y @23.1	03064	28.5
337	Anthony Romani	F	NCAAPRO	21.1	VAN*	24′ #162	0.76	25.4	45%	2y @23.1	02155	21.9
723	Riley Patterson	F	OHL	20.4	VAN*	24′ #125	1.4	34.4	25%	3.3y @23.7	0046	13.1
738	Sawyer Mynio	D	AHLPRO	21.3	VAN*	23′ #89	0.36	13.1	35%	1.2y @22.5	01129	12.9
954	Yaroslav Bryzgalov	F	WHL	19.4	VAN*	26′ #97	0.86	21.1	28%	3.7y @23.1	0037	10.2
981	Ty Mueller	F	AHLPRO	23.5	VAN*	23′ #105	0.61	21.9	20%	2.4y @25.9	0036	9.8
1029	Aiden Celebrini	D	NCAAPRO	21.8	VAN*	23′ #171	0.2	6.7	25%	2.8y @24.6	0026	9.1
1032	Basile Sansonnens	D	NLPRO	20	VAN*	24′ #221	0.07	3.1	33%	2.7y @22.7	0426	9.1
1292	Hugo Gabrielson	D	ALLSVENSKANPRO	23.8	VAN*	21′ #169	0.67	20.8	15%	0.6y @24.4	0029	6.5
1370	Parker Alcos	F	WHL	20.1	VAN*	24′ #189	0.47	11.5	15%	4.4y @24.5	0027	5.8
1384	Matthew Perkins	F	NCAAPRO	22.6	VAN*	23′ #119	0.24	8.1	10%	3.3y @25.9	0020	5.7
1387	Vilmer Alriksson	F	AHLPRO	21.5	VAN*	23′ #107	0.21	7.6	7%	2.3y @23.8	0020	5.6
1446	Matthew Lansing	F	NCAA	19.5	VAN*	25′ #207	0.45	15.1	12%	4.6y @24.1	0020	5.1
1479	Jonathan Myrenberg	D	SHLPRO	23.4	VAN*	21′ #140	0.12	6	15%	2.5y @25.9	0024	4.8
1504	Kieren Dervin	F	OHL	19.4	VAN*	25′ #65	0.79	19.5	17%	3.7y @23.1	0016	4.6
1641	Wilson Bjorck	F	NCAA	20.6	VAN*	25′ #143	0.48	16.3	10%	2.8y @23.4	0020	3.9
1697	Connor Davis	F	USHL	19.8	VAN*	26′ #129	0.93	18.3	7%	2.5y @22.3	000	3.6
1809	Daimon Gardner	F	NCAAPRO	22.6	VAN*	22′ #112	0.15	5.2	5%	3.3y @25.9	0012	2.9
1949	Gabriel Chiarot	F	OHL	19.9	VAN*	25′ #175	0.66	16.1	3%	5.5y @25.4	000	1.6
2020	Jackson Kunz	F	AHLPRO	24	VAN*	20′ #113	0.14	4.9	3%	now @23.9	000	0.8

Who each prospect looks like

2. Caleb Malhotra97% NHL · 1.5y

Clayton Keller 16′#7	91 pk	683 GP
Sam Bennett 14′#4	63 pk	767 GP
Alex Nylander 16′#8	53 pk	126 GP
Jesperi Kotkaniemi 18′#3	43 pk	518 GP
Patrik Laine 16′#2	82 pk	537 GP

11. Adam Novotny88% NHL · 2.4y

Liam Foudy 18′#18	19 pk	105 GP
Curtis Lazar 13′#17	29 pk	617 GP
Hunter Shinkaruk 13′#24	never stuck	15 GP
Joel Farabee 18′#14	57 pk	497 GP
Jaret Anderson-Dolan 17′#41	27 pk	134 GP

15. Braeden Cootes70% NHL · 1.5y

Jakub Vrana 14′#13	62 pk	406 GP
Sonny Milano 14′#16	42 pk	344 GP
Jared McCann 14′#24	73 pk	720 GP
Bo Horvat 13′#9	90 pk	881 GP
Mathew Barzal 15′#16	85 pk	611 GP

27. Brooks Rogowski72% NHL · 3.6y

J.T. Compher 13′#35	52 pk	658 GP
Scott Laughton 12′#20	45 pk	745 GP
Eeli Tolvanen 17′#30	46 pk	423 GP
Daniel Sprong 15′#46	57 pk	374 GP
Alex Tuch 14′#18	88 pk	615 GP

127. Jonathan Lekkerimäki65% NHL · 1y

Jonatan Berggren 18′#33	36 pk	205 GP
Mitchell Stephens 15′#33	18 pk	123 GP
Kirill Marchenko 18′#49	77 pk	292 GP
Nick Sorensen 13′#45	never stuck	5 GP
Morgan Klimchuk 13′#28	never stuck	1 GP

337. Anthony Romani45% NHL · 2y

Rudolfs Balcers 15′#142	34 pk	170 GP
Riley Barber 12′#167	never stuck	16 GP
Sasha Chmelevski 17′#185	never stuck	24 GP
Andrew Mangiapane 15′#166	55 pk	560 GP
Alan Quine 13′#166	24 pk	106 GP

723. Riley Patterson25% NHL · 3.3y

Michael Amadio 14′#90	35 pk	522 GP
Brendan Leipsic 12′#89	33 pk	187 GP
Sasha Chmelevski 17′#185	never stuck	24 GP
Noah Cates 17′#137	47 pk	317 GP
Tyler Soy 16′#205	never stuck	0 GP

738. Sawyer Mynio35% NHL · 1.2y

Caleb Jones 15′#117	24 pk	255 GP
Brandon Crawley 17′#123	never stuck	0 GP
Trevor Carrick 12′#115	never stuck	7 GP
Guillaume Brisebois 15′#66	never stuck	30 GP
Colton White 15′#97	14 pk	107 GP

954. Yaroslav Bryzgalov28% NHL · 3.7y

Riley Stotts 18′#83	never stuck	0 GP
Graham Black 12′#135	never stuck	0 GP
Frederik Tiffels 15′#167	never stuck	0 GP
Allan McShane 18′#97	never stuck	0 GP
Mikhail Vorobyev 15′#104	never stuck	35 GP

981. Ty Mueller20% NHL · 2.4y

Adam Brooks 16′#92	never stuck	43 GP
Linus Karlsson 18′#87	36 pk	106 GP
Arnaud Durandeau 17′#165	never stuck	4 GP
Michael Bunting 14′#117	74 pk	418 GP
Lauri Pajuniemi 18′#132	never stuck	0 GP

1029. Aiden Celebrini25% NHL · 2.8y

Anton Lindholm 14′#144	never stuck	66 GP
Simon Bourque 15′#177	never stuck	0 GP
Tyler Ganly 13′#156	never stuck	0 GP
Tim Berni 18′#159	never stuck	59 GP
Jakub Galvas 17′#150	never stuck	6 GP

1032. Basile Sansonnens33% NHL · 2.7y

Maxime Lajoie 16′#133	never stuck	77 GP
Tyler Ganly 13′#156	never stuck	0 GP
Jacob Cederholm 16′#97	never stuck	0 GP
Simon Bourque 15′#177	never stuck	0 GP
Sebastian Walfridsson 17′#151	never stuck	0 GP