Kodo HockeyProspect Rankings
Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.
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How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.
Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.
| # | Player | Pos | League | Age | Org | Draft | P/GP | NHLe | P(NHL) | ETA | Upside band | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Caleb Malhotra★ | F | OHL | 18.2 | VAN* | 26′ #3 | 1.25 | 30.8 | 97% | 1.5y @19.7 | 4562105 | 65.6 |
| 11 | Adam Novotny★ | F | OHL | 18.8 | VAN | 26′ #24 | 1.12 | 27.6 | 88% | 2.4y @21.2 | 314687 | 48.3 |
| 27 | Brooks Rogowski★ | F | OHL | 18.2 | VAN* | 26′ #33 | 0.91 | 22.5 | 72% | 3.6y @21.8 | 193583 | 38 |
| 723 | Riley Patterson | F | OHL | 20.4 | VAN* | 24′ #125 | 1.4 | 34.4 | 25% | 3.3y @23.7 | 0046 | 13.1 |
| 1504 | Kieren Dervin | F | OHL | 19.4 | VAN* | 25′ #65 | 0.79 | 19.5 | 17% | 3.7y @23.1 | 0016 | 4.6 |
| 1948 | Gabriel Chiarot | F | OHL | 19.9 | VAN* | 25′ #175 | 0.66 | 16.1 | 3% | 5.5y @25.4 | 000 | 1.6 |
Who each prospect looks like
2. Caleb Malhotra97% NHL · 1.5y
| Clayton Keller 16′#7 | 91 pk | 683 GP |
| Sam Bennett 14′#4 | 63 pk | 767 GP |
| Alex Nylander 16′#8 | 53 pk | 126 GP |
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi 18′#3 | 43 pk | 518 GP |
| Patrik Laine 16′#2 | 82 pk | 537 GP |
11. Adam Novotny88% NHL · 2.4y
| Liam Foudy 18′#18 | 19 pk | 105 GP |
| Curtis Lazar 13′#17 | 29 pk | 617 GP |
| Hunter Shinkaruk 13′#24 | never stuck | 15 GP |
| Joel Farabee 18′#14 | 57 pk | 497 GP |
| Jaret Anderson-Dolan 17′#41 | 27 pk | 134 GP |
27. Brooks Rogowski72% NHL · 3.6y
| J.T. Compher 13′#35 | 52 pk | 658 GP |
| Scott Laughton 12′#20 | 45 pk | 745 GP |
| Eeli Tolvanen 17′#30 | 46 pk | 423 GP |
| Daniel Sprong 15′#46 | 57 pk | 374 GP |
| Alex Tuch 14′#18 | 88 pk | 615 GP |
723. Riley Patterson25% NHL · 3.3y
| Michael Amadio 14′#90 | 35 pk | 522 GP |
| Brendan Leipsic 12′#89 | 33 pk | 187 GP |
| Sasha Chmelevski 17′#185 | never stuck | 24 GP |
| Noah Cates 17′#137 | 47 pk | 317 GP |
| Tyler Soy 16′#205 | never stuck | 0 GP |
1504. Kieren Dervin17% NHL · 3.7y
| William Lockwood 16′#64 | never stuck | 54 GP |
| Mike Winther 12′#54 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Janne Kuokkanen 16′#43 | 41 pk | 119 GP |
| Riley Stotts 18′#83 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Dominic Toninato 12′#126 | 20 pk | 197 GP |
1948. Gabriel Chiarot3% NHL · 5.5y
| Vincent Dunn 13′#138 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Steven Spinner 14′#159 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Filip Sveningsson 17′#202 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Sam Hentges 18′#210 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Jacob Peterson 17′#132 | never stuck | 83 GP |