Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
127	Jonathan Lekkerimäki	F	AHLPRO	22.1	VAN	22′ #15	0.95	34.4	65%	1y @23.1	03064	28.5
738	Sawyer Mynio	D	AHLPRO	21.3	VAN*	23′ #89	0.36	13.1	35%	1.2y @22.5	01129	12.9
981	Ty Mueller	F	AHLPRO	23.5	VAN*	23′ #105	0.61	21.9	20%	2.4y @25.9	0036	9.8
1170	Jackson Dorrington	D	AHLPRO	22.4	VAN*	22′ #176	0.16	5.7	23%	3.4y @25.8	0026	7.4
1290	Danila Klimovich	F	AHLPRO	23.6	VAN*	21′ #41	0.54	19.5	17%	1y @24.6	0030	6.5
1387	Vilmer Alriksson	F	AHLPRO	21.5	VAN*	23′ #107	0.21	7.6	7%	2.3y @23.8	0020	5.6
2020	Jackson Kunz	F	AHLPRO	24	VAN*	20′ #113	0.14	4.9	3%	now @23.9	000	0.8

Who each prospect looks like

127. Jonathan Lekkerimäki65% NHL · 1y

Jonatan Berggren 18′#33	36 pk	205 GP
Mitchell Stephens 15′#33	18 pk	123 GP
Kirill Marchenko 18′#49	77 pk	292 GP
Nick Sorensen 13′#45	never stuck	5 GP
Morgan Klimchuk 13′#28	never stuck	1 GP

738. Sawyer Mynio35% NHL · 1.2y

Caleb Jones 15′#117	24 pk	255 GP
Brandon Crawley 17′#123	never stuck	0 GP
Trevor Carrick 12′#115	never stuck	7 GP
Guillaume Brisebois 15′#66	never stuck	30 GP
Colton White 15′#97	14 pk	107 GP

981. Ty Mueller20% NHL · 2.4y

Adam Brooks 16′#92	never stuck	43 GP
Linus Karlsson 18′#87	36 pk	106 GP
Arnaud Durandeau 17′#165	never stuck	4 GP
Michael Bunting 14′#117	74 pk	418 GP
Lauri Pajuniemi 18′#132	never stuck	0 GP

1170. Jackson Dorrington23% NHL · 3.4y

Tyler Tucker 18′#200	20 pk	159 GP
Justin Hache 12′#208	never stuck	0 GP
Jakub Galvas 17′#150	never stuck	6 GP
Dawson Barteaux 18′#168	never stuck	0 GP
Jake Dotchin 12′#161	26 pk	103 GP

1290. Danila Klimovich17% NHL · 1y

Marcus Davidsson 17′#37	never stuck	0 GP
Teddy Blueger 12′#52	42 pk	453 GP
Pontus Aberg 12′#37	42 pk	132 GP
Tyler Madden 18′#68	never stuck	0 GP
Martin Frk 12′#49	30 pk	124 GP

1387. Vilmer Alriksson7% NHL · 2.3y

Viktor Crus Rydberg 13′#136	never stuck	0 GP
Dylan Sadowy 14′#81	never stuck	0 GP
Austin Wagner 15′#99	28 pk	178 GP
Anton Blidh 13′#180	never stuck	89 GP
Chandler Stephenson 12′#77	66 pk	653 GP

2020. Jackson Kunz3% NHL · 0y

Lenni Killinen 18′#104	never stuck	0 GP
Jack Badini 17′#91	never stuck	0 GP
Kyle Olson 17′#122	never stuck	0 GP
Alex Dostie 16′#115	never stuck	0 GP
Blake McLaughlin 18′#79	never stuck	0 GP