Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
2	Caleb Malhotra★	F	OHL	18.2	VAN*	26′ #3	1.25	30.8	97%	1.5y @19.7	4562105	65.6
11	Adam Novotny★	F	OHL	18.8	VAN	26′ #24	1.12	27.6	88%	2.4y @21.2	314687	48.3
14	Braeden Cootes★	F	WHL	19.5	VAN*	25′ #15	1.39	34.1	70%	1.5y @21	294285	45.8
23	Brooks Rogowski★	F	OHL	18.2	VAN*	26′ #33	0.91	22.5	72%	3.6y @21.8	193583	38
116	Jonathan Lekkerimäki	F	AHLPRO	22.1	VAN	22′ #15	0.95	34.4	65%	1y @23.1	03064	28.5
302	Anthony Romani	F	NCAAPRO	21.1	VAN*	24′ #162	0.76	25.4	45%	2y @23.1	02155	21.9
576	Riley Patterson	F	OHL	20.4	VAN*	24′ #125	1.4	34.4	25%	3.3y @23.7	0046	13.1
657	Melvin Fernström	F	SHLPRO	20.5	VAN*	24′ #93	0.11	5.4	30%	2.4y @22.9	0029	11.4
702	Yaroslav Bryzgalov	F	WHL	19.4	VAN*	26′ #97	0.86	21.1	28%	3.7y @23.1	0037	10.2
714	Ty Mueller	F	AHLPRO	23.5	VAN*	23′ #105	0.61	21.9	20%	2.4y @25.9	0036	9.8
895	Danila Klimovich	F	AHLPRO	23.6	VAN*	21′ #41	0.54	19.5	17%	1y @24.6	0030	6.5
938	Parker Alcos	F	WHL	20.1	VAN*	24′ #189	0.47	11.5	15%	4.4y @24.5	0027	5.8
945	Matthew Perkins	F	NCAAPRO	22.6	VAN*	23′ #119	0.24	8.1	10%	3.3y @25.9	0020	5.7
948	Vilmer Alriksson	F	AHLPRO	21.5	VAN*	23′ #107	0.21	7.6	7%	2.3y @23.8	0020	5.6
987	Matthew Lansing	F	NCAA	19.5	VAN*	25′ #207	0.45	15.1	12%	4.6y @24.1	0020	5.1
1027	Kieren Dervin	F	OHL	19.4	VAN*	25′ #65	0.79	19.5	17%	3.7y @23.1	0016	4.6
1123	Wilson Bjorck	F	NCAA	20.6	VAN*	25′ #143	0.48	16.3	10%	2.8y @23.4	0020	3.9
1163	Connor Davis	F	USHL	19.8	VAN*	26′ #129	0.93	18.3	7%	2.5y @22.3	000	3.6
1244	Daimon Gardner	F	NCAAPRO	22.6	VAN*	22′ #112	0.15	5.2	5%	3.3y @25.9	0012	2.9
1343	Gabriel Chiarot	F	OHL	19.9	VAN*	25′ #175	0.66	16.1	3%	5.5y @25.4	000	1.6
1386	Jackson Kunz	F	AHLPRO	24	VAN*	20′ #113	0.14	4.9	3%	now @23.9	000	0.8

Who each prospect looks like

2. Caleb Malhotra97% NHL · 1.5y

Clayton Keller 16′#7	91 pk	683 GP
Sam Bennett 14′#4	63 pk	767 GP
Alex Nylander 16′#8	53 pk	126 GP
Jesperi Kotkaniemi 18′#3	43 pk	518 GP
Patrik Laine 16′#2	82 pk	537 GP

11. Adam Novotny88% NHL · 2.4y

Liam Foudy 18′#18	19 pk	105 GP
Curtis Lazar 13′#17	29 pk	617 GP
Hunter Shinkaruk 13′#24	never stuck	15 GP
Joel Farabee 18′#14	57 pk	497 GP
Jaret Anderson-Dolan 17′#41	27 pk	134 GP

14. Braeden Cootes70% NHL · 1.5y

Jakub Vrana 14′#13	62 pk	406 GP
Sonny Milano 14′#16	42 pk	344 GP
Jared McCann 14′#24	73 pk	720 GP
Bo Horvat 13′#9	90 pk	881 GP
Mathew Barzal 15′#16	85 pk	611 GP

23. Brooks Rogowski72% NHL · 3.6y

J.T. Compher 13′#35	52 pk	658 GP
Scott Laughton 12′#20	45 pk	745 GP
Eeli Tolvanen 17′#30	46 pk	423 GP
Daniel Sprong 15′#46	57 pk	374 GP
Alex Tuch 14′#18	88 pk	615 GP

116. Jonathan Lekkerimäki65% NHL · 1y

Jonatan Berggren 18′#33	36 pk	205 GP
Mitchell Stephens 15′#33	18 pk	123 GP
Kirill Marchenko 18′#49	77 pk	292 GP
Nick Sorensen 13′#45	never stuck	5 GP
Morgan Klimchuk 13′#28	never stuck	1 GP

302. Anthony Romani45% NHL · 2y

Rudolfs Balcers 15′#142	34 pk	170 GP
Riley Barber 12′#167	never stuck	16 GP
Sasha Chmelevski 17′#185	never stuck	24 GP
Andrew Mangiapane 15′#166	55 pk	560 GP
Alan Quine 13′#166	24 pk	106 GP

576. Riley Patterson25% NHL · 3.3y

Michael Amadio 14′#90	35 pk	522 GP
Brendan Leipsic 12′#89	33 pk	187 GP
Sasha Chmelevski 17′#185	never stuck	24 GP
Noah Cates 17′#137	47 pk	317 GP
Tyler Soy 16′#205	never stuck	0 GP

657. Melvin Fernström30% NHL · 2.4y

Brandon Gignac 16′#80	never stuck	8 GP
Dylan Sadowy 14′#81	never stuck	0 GP
Gabriel Fortier 18′#59	never stuck	11 GP
Daniel Bernhardt 15′#119	never stuck	0 GP
Viktor Crus Rydberg 13′#136	never stuck	0 GP

702. Yaroslav Bryzgalov28% NHL · 3.7y

Riley Stotts 18′#83	never stuck	0 GP
Graham Black 12′#135	never stuck	0 GP
Frederik Tiffels 15′#167	never stuck	0 GP
Allan McShane 18′#97	never stuck	0 GP
Mikhail Vorobyev 15′#104	never stuck	35 GP

714. Ty Mueller20% NHL · 2.4y

Adam Brooks 16′#92	never stuck	43 GP
Linus Karlsson 18′#87	36 pk	106 GP
Arnaud Durandeau 17′#165	never stuck	4 GP
Michael Bunting 14′#117	74 pk	418 GP
Lauri Pajuniemi 18′#132	never stuck	0 GP

895. Danila Klimovich17% NHL · 1y

Marcus Davidsson 17′#37	never stuck	0 GP
Teddy Blueger 12′#52	42 pk	453 GP
Pontus Aberg 12′#37	42 pk	132 GP
Tyler Madden 18′#68	never stuck	0 GP
Martin Frk 12′#49	30 pk	124 GP

938. Parker Alcos15% NHL · 4.4y

Jack Gorniak 18′#123	never stuck	0 GP
Parker Foo 17′#144	never stuck	0 GP
Gavin Hain 18′#174	never stuck	0 GP
Aapeli Rasanen 16′#153	never stuck	0 GP
Anton Karlsson 14′#87	never stuck	0 GP