Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
3	Caleb Desnoyers★	F	LHJMQ	19.4	UTA	25′ #4	1.73	39.8	90%	0.7y @20.1	427095	62.5
8	Tij Iginla★	F	WHL	20	UTA	24′ #6	1.88	46.1	90%	1.4y @21.4	354997	56.7
16	Ethan Belchetz★	F	OHL	18.4	UTA*	26′ #17	1.04	25.5	82%	2.8y @21.2	294687	45.6
60	Cole Beaudoin	F	OHL	20.3	UTA*	24′ #24	1.65	40.5	62%	2.5y @22.8	122983	32.5
81	Adam Valentini	F	NCAA	18.4	UTA*	26′ #96	0.68	22.7	57%	3.5y @21.9	03083	31.1
102	Yegor Borikov	F	KHLPRO	21	UTA*	25′ #110	0.51	32.1	62%	1.9y @22.9	83258	29.6
225	Daniil But	F	AHLPRO	21.5	UTA	23′ #12	0.95	34.3	57%	1.6y @23.1	42762	25.6
465	Dmitri Simashev	D	AHLPRO	21.5	UTA	—	0.88	31.6	47%	2.4y @23.9	01352	18.6
466	Gabe Smith	F	LHJMQ	20	UTA*	24′ #103	1.28	29.5	40%	3.6y @23.6	0049	18.6
654	Ludvig Johnson	D	NLPRO	20.1	UTA*	25′ #174	0.3	13.6	42%	2.4y @22.5	01129	14.4
910	Florent Houle	F	LHJMQ	19	UTA*	26′ #147	0.79	18.1	20%	4.1y @23.1	0046	10.7
936	Gregor Biber	D	SHLPRO	20	UTA*	24′ #98	0.05	2.5	38%	2.5y @22.5	0429	10.4
956	Tomas Lavoie	D	LHJMQ	20.4	UTA*	24′ #89	0.85	19.5	25%	2.4y @22.8	0038	10.2
1014	Maveric Lamoureux	D	AHLPRO	22.6	UTA	22′ #29	0.31	11.1	23%	0.9y @23.5	0027	9.2
1139	Veeti Väisänen	F	WHL	20.5	UTA*	24′ #96	0.49	12	15%	3.4y @23.9	0023	7.7
1346	Owen Allard	F	AHLPRO	22.6	UTA*	24′ #135	0.28	9.9	12%	1.3y @23.9	0022	6
1640	Ludvig Lafton	D	USHL	20.6	UTA*	24′ #190	0.62	12.3	10%	4.3y @24.9	0014	3.9
1856	Will Skahan	D	NCAA	20.3	UTA*	24′ #65	0.03	1.1	10%	3.3y @23.6	004	2.6

Who each prospect looks like

3. Caleb Desnoyers90% NHL · 0.7y

Barrett Hayton 18′#5	46 pk	358 GP
Mitch Marner 15′#4	110 pk	738 GP
Bo Horvat 13′#9	90 pk	881 GP
Leon Draisaitl 14′#3	131 pk	855 GP
William Nylander 14′#8	100 pk	750 GP

8. Tij Iginla90% NHL · 1.4y

Timo Meier 15′#9	81 pk	698 GP
Nick Suzuki 17′#13	101 pk	537 GP
Max Domi 13′#12	72 pk	815 GP
Ty Dellandrea 18′#13	28 pk	265 GP
Cody Glass 17′#6	40 pk	322 GP

16. Ethan Belchetz82% NHL · 2.8y

Liam Foudy 18′#18	19 pk	105 GP
Curtis Lazar 13′#17	29 pk	617 GP
Dylan Larkin 14′#15	83 pk	808 GP
Eeli Tolvanen 17′#30	46 pk	423 GP
Scott Laughton 12′#20	45 pk	745 GP

60. Cole Beaudoin62% NHL · 2.5y

Morgan Frost 17′#27	47 pk	392 GP
Brett Howden 16′#27	41 pk	489 GP
Tanner Pearson 12′#30	53 pk	778 GP
Brendan Lemieux 14′#31	25 pk	307 GP
Jordan Kyrou 16′#35	83 pk	488 GP

81. Adam Valentini57% NHL · 3.5y

Jarrod Maidens 12′#82	never stuck	0 GP
J.T. Compher 13′#35	52 pk	658 GP
Daniel Sprong 15′#46	57 pk	374 GP
Jake Guentzel 13′#77	91 pk	681 GP
Ostap Safin 17′#115	never stuck	0 GP

102. Yegor Borikov62% NHL · 1.9y

Anton Slepyshev 13′#88	20 pk	102 GP
Emil Bemstrom 17′#117	33 pk	242 GP
Rudolfs Balcers 15′#142	34 pk	170 GP
Artturi Lehkonen 13′#55	65 pk	660 GP
Lucas Wallmark 14′#97	31 pk	187 GP

225. Daniil But57% NHL · 1.6y

Jake DeBrusk 15′#14	64 pk	628 GP
Mitchell Stephens 15′#33	18 pk	123 GP
Tyler Benson 16′#32	never stuck	38 GP
Jonatan Berggren 18′#33	36 pk	205 GP
Tanner Pearson 12′#30	53 pk	778 GP

465. Dmitri Simashev47% NHL · 2.4y

Sebastian Aho 17′#139	27 pk	190 GP
Christian Djoos 12′#195	25 pk	155 GP
Sami Niku 15′#198	never stuck	67 GP
Colin Miller 12′#151	41 pk	590 GP
Markus Nutivaara 15′#189	31 pk	275 GP

466. Gabe Smith40% NHL · 3.6y

Noah Gregor 16′#111	30 pk	330 GP
Michael Eyssimont 16′#142	33 pk	269 GP
Michael Bunting 14′#117	74 pk	418 GP
Drake Rymsha 17′#138	never stuck	1 GP
Ivan Lodnia 17′#85	never stuck	0 GP

654. Ludvig Johnson42% NHL · 2.4y

Gustav Forsling 14′#126	43 pk	557 GP
Maxime Lajoie 16′#133	never stuck	77 GP
Sami Niku 15′#198	never stuck	67 GP
Cale Fleury 17′#87	11 pk	100 GP
Trevor Carrick 12′#115	never stuck	7 GP

910. Florent Houle20% NHL · 4.1y

Luke Johnson 13′#134	never stuck	32 GP
Jonne Tammela 15′#118	never stuck	0 GP
Dominik Kubalik 13′#191	56 pk	357 GP
John McCarron 12′#153	never stuck	0 GP
Brian Pinho 13′#174	never stuck	2 GP

936. Gregor Biber38% NHL · 2.5y

Robert Hagg 13′#41	22 pk	345 GP
Jacob Cederholm 16′#97	never stuck	0 GP
Cale Fleury 17′#87	11 pk	100 GP
Jonas Siegenthaler 15′#57	22 pk	449 GP
Gustav Lindstrom 17′#38	18 pk	174 GP